Trend Growth Rate Research Articles

Growth, structural change and wages in India: recent trends

This paper attempts to analyse the trend in growth rate of wages in the last two decades. The broad trend in wages and the wage structure are examined in the context of changing structure of employment and output in the economy over time using different data sources. The rapid acceleration during 2008–2013 and subsequent collapse of wages has raised questions on the earlier consensus on drivers of change in agricultural wages. The emergence of non-farm sector and the declining importance of agriculture is examined along with the new patterns of rural-urban interlinkages, public expenditure led employment creation such as MGNREGA and wage-inflation spiral.

Trade Liberalization and Firm Level Productivity in Indian Cement Industry:Evidences from Post-Reform Period

Productivity growth has an important linkage with economic growth and standard of living. It increases output and also improves the efficiency of firms/industries through better utilization of factors of production. This study estimates firm level productivity in cement industry in India and examines the impact of trade liberalization. The period of the study is from 1991-1992 to 2012-2013 which is sub-divided into two sub-periods, i.e., from 1991-1992 to 2001-2002 and from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013. Productivity has been estimated using Levinshon-Petrin (gross revenue case) method. The firm levels productivity growth (semi-log trend rate of growth) in cement industry in balanced and unbalanced panels are negative 0.14 per cent and negative 0.01 per cent respectively. A significant difference in productivity growth among large, medium and small scale firms is found. Trade liberalization has led to decline in input-tariffs, output-tariffs and effective rate of protection. Increase in trade openness led to increased productivity. The study shows positive impact of increase in construction sector growth rate and decline in rate of interest and inflation rate on firm level productivity in this industry.

Estimating the natural rate of interest in an open economy

The concept of the natural or equilibrium rate of interest has attracted a lot of attention from monetary policymakers in recent years. Most attempts to estimate the natural rate use a closed-economy framework. We argue that in the face of greater integration of global product and capital markets, an open economy framework is more appropriate. We provide some initial estimates of the natural rate for the USA and Japan in a two-country framework. Our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the time-varying natural rate of interest and the low-frequency fluctuations of potential output growth in both the home country and the foreign country. Our results suggest that the natural rates in both countries are mainly determined by their own trend growth rates of potential output. Nevertheless, the other country’s trend growth plays an important role in several specific periods. The gap between the actual real interest rate and our estimated natural rate offers valuable insights into the recent stance of monetary policy in both of these two countries.

Doubling the farm income through the promoting of pigeonpea based intercropping system: A review

In order to ensure self-sufficiency, the current pulses requirement in the country is estimated at 22.5 MT. Keeping in view the trends in population growth rate and that several other options besides pulses are now available for meeting protein requirements of the people due to change in food habits of masses, the pulse requirement in the country is projected at 32 MT by the year 2030 and 39 million tonnes by the year 2050. This necessitates an annual growth rate of 2.2% requiring a phenomenal shift in research, technology generation, its dissemination, and commercialization along with capacity building in frontier areas of research. In every five year interval productivity will have to be enhanced by an average of about 80 kg/ha over the previous one to achieve a final productivity rate of 950 kg/ha by the end of 2025 and 1335 kg/ha by the end of 2050. The above-stated projections have been made assuming that practically it will be feasible to increase about 4 million ha additional area under pulses. The current per capita availability is estimated at 41.6 g/capita/day which was quite low (31.8 g) in 2000. Cultivation of pulses on poor soils under rainfed conditions with minimum inputs and care subject these crops to severe yield losses not only due to edaphic, abiotic and socio-economic factors but also due to confounding effects of various biotic stresses. High influence of environmental factors and their interactions with genotype are the major production constraint in pulses which lead to a limited gain in terms of productivity in most of the pulses. Therefore, for increasing of production of pulses, intercropping systems found to more beneficial in comparison to sole cropping systems in respect to profitability and soil fertility.

Hydrogen isotope composition of Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum lipids: Comparing wild type with a nfn- transhydrogenase mutant

The 2H/1H ratio in microbial fatty acids can record information about the energy metabolism of microbes and about the isotopic composition of environmental water. However, the mechanisms involved in the fractionation of hydrogen isotopes between water and lipid are not fully resolved. We provide data aimed at understanding this fractionation in the Gram-positive, obligately thermophilic anaerobe Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum, by comparing a wild-type strain with a deletion mutant in which the nfnAB genes encoding electron-bifurcating transhydrogenase have been removed. The wild strain showed faster growth rate and larger overall fractionation (2εtotal −319±4‰) than the mutant strain (2εtotal −298±4‰). The overall trend in growth rate and fractionation, along with the isotopic ordering of individual lipids, is consistent with results reported for the Gram-negative sulfate reducer, Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20.

Demographic trends of a harvested American black bear population in northwestern South Carolina

Abstract As American black bears (Ursus americanus) reoccupy portions of the eastern United States, it is important to implement sustainable management practices based in a strong understanding of the dynamics of these recovering populations as they expand into areas with increasing anthropogenic pressures. We used the Downing population reconstruction technique on harvest records to establish baseline abundance and population growth-rate trends over 15 years for a population of black bear in northwestern South Carolina, USA. The total population in 2013 was estimated to be a minimum of 412 black bears, increasing from approximately 97 bears in 1998. We established age structure and sex structure in harvest, which were consistent with sustainably harvested bear populations. We recommend using these data as a baseline to determine the maximum sustainable harvest rate for this population. We also recommend future investigation into the development of research priorities and harvest management decisions for ...

Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle

We document the fact that the growth forecasts made by professional forecasters in advanced economies exhibit systematic errors, and analyze how these errors depend on the business cycle state. On average over our full sample, forecasters overestimate GDP growth. However, this result masks considerable differences across business cycle states. Growth forecasts for recessions are subject to large negative systematic errors, while forecasts for recoveries are subject to small positive systematic errors. In contrast, forecasts for expansions do not exhibit systematic errors. Thus, there is evidence that forecasters try to issue forecasts which are unbiased conditional on being in an expansion, rather than forecasts which are unbiased overall. We also show that forecasters adjust their forecasts slowly around business cycle turning points. Furthermore, we show that cross-country differences in systematic forecast errors during expansions cannot be explained by changes in trend growth rates.

Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans

Global ocean temperatures are rising, yet the impacts of such changes on harmful algal blooms (HABs) are not fully understood. Here we used high-resolution sea-surface temperature records (1982 to 2016) and temperature-dependent growth rates of two algae that produce potent biotoxins, Alexandrium fundyense and Dinophysis acuminata, to evaluate recent changes in these HABs. For both species, potential mean annual growth rates and duration of bloom seasons significantly increased within many coastal Atlantic regions between 40°N and 60°N, where incidents of these HABs have emerged and expanded in recent decades. Widespread trends were less evident across the North Pacific, although regions were identified across the Salish Sea and along the Alaskan coastline where blooms have recently emerged, and there have been significant increases in the potential growth rates and duration of these HAB events. We conclude that increasing ocean temperature is an important factor facilitating the intensification of these, and likely other, HABs and thus contributes to an expanding human health threat.

Early‐life density‐dependence effects on growth and survival in subantarctic fur seals

AbstractUnderstanding the regulation of natural populations has been a long‐standing research program in ecology. Current knowledge on marine mammals and seabirds is biased toward the adult component of populations and lacking are studies investigating the juvenile component. Our goal was to estimate demographic parameters on the pre‐weaning stage of a subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) population on Amsterdam Island, suspected to be regulated by density‐dependence. The influence of abundance on growth parameters (length and weight) and survival was assessed over a study period spanning 16 years. We evidenced a negative trend in population growth rate when density increased. Density‐dependence models were favored for pup body size and mass growth. Abundance had a clear influence on body length at high population‐density, pups grew slower and were smaller at weaning than pups born in years with low population density. Abundance partly explained pup body mass variation and a weak effect was detected on pre‐weaning survival. The causal mechanisms may be increased competition for food resources between breeding females, leading to a reduction of maternal input to their pups. Our results suggested that pup favored survival over growth and the development of their diving abilities in order to withstand the extreme fasting periods that are characteristic of this fur seal population. This analysis provides significant insight of density‐dependent processes on early‐life demographic parameters of a long lived and top‐predator species, and more specifically on the pre‐weaning stage with important consequences for our understanding of individual long‐term fitness and population dynamics.

Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach–Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach–Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies – Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. We find that large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25years in all four economies. These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest.

Determinants of Agricultural Production in Kenya under Climate Change

Climate change has been described as the most significant environmental threat of the 21st century with vast impact mostly on agriculture, altering food production processes. As an important sector in the Kenyan economy, agriculture continues to dominate other sectors despite its declining contribution to real GDP. Given that the performance of the agricultural sector is determined by a large number of factors, the need to articulate this study has become imperative in view of the climate phenomenon. Therefore, the study examined the determinants of agricultural production in Kenya under climate change with specific interests in assessing the trend of climate variables and growth rate of agricultural production within 1970-2012 periods; estimating factors influencing agricultural production and deducing policy implications from the findings. Data used were secondary and include value of agricultural production, livestock, machines, fertilizer, agricultural land, labour, annual precipitation and temperature over the study period. These were obtained from databases hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT), the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Data analysis was done using trend analysis, log quadratic trend equation and multiple regression model. The trend results show that precipitation pattern traced out high amplitude decadal variability with the forecast showing off a slightly upward trend. In temperature, the inter-annual variability observed was wide with a forecast of a slight increase up to 2020. In terms of growth analysis, the log quadratic equation indicates that agricultural production posted a compound growth rate of 3.252% during the period while production was determined by the quantum of labour, livestock, agricultural land, precipitation and its squared term. The implication is that precipitation both on the short and long run affected agricultural production. It is recommended that ecosystem based and technologically driven adaptation measures be taken to address climate change effects on agricultural production.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of Oil Price Volatility on GDP Growth in Kenya

Despite Oil being one of the key drivers of the world economy, the recent fluctuations in oil prices has brought concerns about possible slowdowns in economic growth globally. To cushion their economies from these oil price volatility shocks, a number of developing countries have made structural reforms in their macroeconomic policies as far as domestic petroleum pricing system is concerned. In line with this, Kenya has undertaken to reform the energy sector so as to make it competitive, efficient as well as attracting investment in the sector. The main objective of this study was to investigate if volatility of oil price had an effect on Kenya’s GDP growth rate with Exchange rate and Inflation rate as intervening variables. The study used quarterly data from KNBS, CBK and ERC for the periods 2004 to 2013 to achieve its objective and all analysis were done in R. Analysis showed that fluctuation of Crude oil price in the international market coupled with fluctuations in the exchange rate and inflation rate determined 86.9 per cent of the trend in GDP growth rate. The study found that when crude oil price increases by KSh 1,000 per barrel, the Kenya shilling weakens by a single Kenya shilling for every US dollar and the inflation rate goes up by 1 per cent, then the GDP growth rate decreases by 0.132 percentage points (p=0.000). The study also found that the model used had no serial autocorrelation meaning that the error terms of the regression model at any given two different quarters were linearly uncorrelated. Moreover, Goldfeld-Quandt test statistic was found to be significantly higher than 5% or 1% significance levels. This was despite a plot graph of residuals vs the fitted values of GDP growth rate showing unequal distribution of residuals as the values of fitted GDP growth rate increased. Therefore the model was free from heteroscedasticity. The government should therefore focus on stabilizing exchange rate, increase domestic energy production to reduce reliance on importation of petroleum products and control the level of inflation.

Alpine landscape and canopy cover from 1973 to 2011: are roe and red deer population dynamics linked?

Context Land-use change may represent a major driver for wildlife population trends in most ecosystems all over the world. In addition to land abandonment and forest management transformation in remote areas of developed countries, such as the European mountains, the intensification of human activities has, by and large, affected the settlement opportunities for wildlife species. Aims What changes occurred in the structure and extent of land use between 1973 and 2011 in the Central Eastern Alps, Italy? Are the abundance indices of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) driven by these landscape transformations? Is there any relationship between the increase in red deer and the decrease in roe deer abundance? Methods The study was conducted in a 1335-km2 area (Central Eastern Alps, Italy). Through GIS photo interpretation techniques and patch analysis tools, we determined land-use changes between 1973 and 2011. Correlations between environmental modifications and climatic conditions, as well as between roe and red deer abundance indices (i.e. catch per unit effort (CPUE) and hunting bag data, respectively) were investigated for the 1973–2011 period by implementing linear mixed models. Key results The metrics thus calculated revealed a homogenisation of the woodland area and a general landscape simplification. By examining the effects of the climatic factors supposedly affecting population growth rate, roe and red deer trends seemed to be driven also by land-use evolution. Indeed, in the 1973–2011 period a negative trend in the availability of open areas below the tree line (–4.6%) and of agricultural zones (–1.9%) seemed to disfavour roe deer, while a fast increase in woodlands (+7.8%), scrublands (+3.3%) and canopy cover (+7.9%) was reported to be concomitant to red deer range expansion and density increase. Moreover, red deer growth rate impacted on roe deer population dynamics. Conclusions and implications Given the ongoing land-use changes, their effect on roe and red deer population trends and the competition issue between them, these results may help managers to apply an effective adaptive-management planning technique for target locations to keep the ecosystem balanced.

Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in an Open Economy

The concept of the natural or equilibrium rate of interest has attracted a lot of attention from monetary policymakers in recent years. Most attempts to estimate the natural rate use a closed economy framework. We argue that in the face of greater integration of global product and capital markets, an open economy framework is more appropriate. We provide some initial estimates of the natural rate for the United States and Japan in a two-country framework. Our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the time-varying natural rate of interest and the low-frequency fluctuations of potential output growth in both the home country and the foreign country. Our results suggest that the natural rates in both countries are mainly determined by their own trend growth rates of potential output. Nevertheless, the other country's trend growth plays an important role in several specific periods. The gap between the actual real interest rate and our estimated natural rate offers valuable insights into the recent stance of monetary policy in both of these two countries.

A Small-Sample Adaptive Hybrid Model for Annual Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Annual electricity consumption forecasting is one of the important foundations of power system planning. Considering that the long-term electricity consumption curves of developing countries usually present approximately exponential growth trends and linear and accelerated growth rate trends may also appear in certain periods, this paper first proposes a small-sample adaptive hybrid model (AHM) to extrapolate the above curves. The iterative trend extrapolation equation of the proposed model can simulate the linear, exponential, and steep trends adaptively at the same time. To estimate the equation parameters using small samples, the partial least squares (PLS) and iteration starting point optimization algorithms are suggested. To evaluate forecasting performance, the artificial neural network (ANN), grey model (GM), and AHM are used to forecast electricity consumption in China from 1991 to 2014, and then the results of these models are compared. Analysis of the forecasting results shows that the AHM can overcome stochastic changes and respond quickly to changes in the main electricity consumption trend because of its specialized equation structure. Overall error analysis indicators also show that AHM often obtains more precise forecasting results than the other two models.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest?the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances?have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies?Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. We find that large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies. These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest.

Enhancing Black Crappie Growth by Co‐culturing with Bluegills

AbstractCrappies Pomoxis spp. are popular sports fish in the USA and desirable as a food fish. Information on the food production of crappies is limited due to culturing and feed intake challenges. Observations indicated that crappies tend to feed more aggressively in co‐culture with Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus or Bluegill hybrids. This study tested this observation by stocking 25 Black Crappies P. nigromaculatus (mean, 5 g) per tank into 16 tanks of a water recirculation aquaculture system and randomly adding zero, one, two, or four Bluegills per tank with four replications per treatment. Fish were fed at 0800, 1200 and 1600 hours 6 d/week. Feed intake was measured daily and growth was monitored by obtaining biweekly biomass by species. After 12 weeks, feed intake and feed conversion ratio tended to improve with the increasing treatment number of Bluegills. Significant differences in these occurred between the zero and the treatment with four Bluegills. Black Crappie co‐cultured with Bluegills had increases in weight gain of 15–18% compared with those cultured without Bluegills. Improved growth trends in final weights and specific growth rate also occurred in the co‐cultured Black Crappies.

Estimating Common Growth Patterns in Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from Diverse Genetic Stocks and a Large Spatial Extent.

Life history variation in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) supports species resilience to natural disturbances and fishery exploitation. Within salmon species, life-history variation often manifests during freshwater and estuarine rearing, as variation in growth. To date, however, characterizing variability in growth patterns within and among individuals has been difficult via conventional sampling methods because of the inability to obtain repeated size measurements. In this study we related otolith microstructures to growth rates of individual juvenile Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from the Columbia River estuary over a two-year period (2010–2012). We used dynamic factor analysis to determine whether there were common patterns in growth rates within juveniles based on their natal region, capture location habitat type, and whether they were wild or of hatchery origin. We identified up to five large-scale trends in juvenile growth rates depending on month and year of capture. We also found that hatchery fish had a narrower range of trend loadings for some capture groups, suggesting that hatchery fish do not express the same breadth of growth variability as wild fish. However, we were unable to resolve a relationship between specific growth patterns and habitat transitions. Our study exemplifies how a relatively new statistical analysis can be applied to dating or aging techniques to summarize individual variation, and characterize aspects of life history diversity.

Implication of external price referencing and parallel trade on pharmaceutical expenditure: indirect evidence from lower-income European countries.

External price referencing (EPR) is applied more and more frequently worldwide by payers to control pharmaceutical prices. Together with the parallel trade of pharmaceuticals, EPR may result in lower pharmaceutical prices in higher-income countries and higher prices in lower-income countries, which implies that pharmaceutical expenditure grows more rapidly in the latter than in the former group. Our objective was to assess this hypothesis. We used hierarchical linear models on country-level panel data to show that-after controlling for compounding factors such as GDP, the proportion of the old-age population or life expectancy-the annual growth rate of pharmaceutical expenditure was 2.1% points larger in the lower- than in the higher-income members of the European Union between 2000 and 2008. This difference in trends became non-significant (0.6% points) after the onset of the global economic crisis. There was no significant difference between lower- and higher-income countries in the growth rate of non-pharmaceutical health expenditure in either period. Our results indirectly support the presence of price convergence of pharmaceuticals among European countries, and EPR and parallel trade may provide a reasonable explanation to the observed trend difference of pharmaceutical expenditure in the two groups of countries between 2000 and 2008. This higher growth rate of pharmaceutical expenditure put extra burden on public health care budgets in lower-income countries and resulted in disproportionately more cost-containment measures compared to higher-income countries after 2008. It remains to be seen whether the disappearance of the difference in trend growth rates due to special health policy interventions in countries with economic difficulties is temporary or permanent.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies – Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. We find that large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies. These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest.