Transport Modeling System Research Articles

Particulate Matter Source Contributions for Raipur-Durg-Bhilai Region of Chhattisgarh, India

ABSTRACT In Chhattisgarh, Raipur-Durg-Bhilai (RDB) tri-city area hosts the new administrative capital of the state, interconnected by an expressway forming the industrial corridor and is one of the largest steel manufacturing hubs in India. Between 1998 and 2016, the satellite and global model data derived concentrations show a 50% increase in the overall PM2.5 pollution in the region. The average PM10 concentration measured at commercial, industrial, and residential monitoring stations is 125 ± 52 µg m–3 in 2015. None of the stations currently measure PM2.5. The annual average PM10 concentrations in 2011 is 175 ± 110 µg m–3, which translates to 28% improvement in 5 years. A multiple pollutant emissions inventory was established for this urban airshed (extending 60 km × 30 km), with annual estimates of 41,500 tons of PM2.5, 59,650 tons of PM10, 7,600 tons of SO2, 67,000 tons of NOx, 163,300 tons of CO, 118,150 tons of NMVOCs, and 3.1 million tons of CO2 for 2015, and further projected to 2030 under business as usual conditions. The ambient source contributions were calculated using WRF-CAMx chemical transport modeling system, highlighting the heavy industries (mostly steel) (23%), followed by transport (including on road dust) (29%), domestic cooking and heating (12%), open waste burning (6%), as the key air pollution sources in the urban area. The city has an estimated 26% of the ambient annual PM2.5 pollution originating outside the urban airshed - this contribution is mostly coming from the coal-fired power plants, large (metal and non-metal processing) industries, and brick kilns located outside the urban airshed and seasonal open biomass fires.

Firm-specific and location-specific drivers of business location and relocation decisions

ABSTRACTDecisions made by businesses on where to locate or relocate are typically given less consideration than residential location in integrated transport and land use modelling systems. This is surprising given the important role that businesses play in defining employment opportunities, and hence the travel patterns of workers and any travel associated with accessing firms. As part of a larger study on giving firm location choices an endogenous representation in an integrated model system, this paper reviews the existing literature on the drivers of location and relocation decisions in various geographical jurisdictions. The findings provide a starting position in the design of future firm-specific surveys, and especially the attributes that are candidates for stated choice experiments and for inclusion in firm location utility equations embedded in integrated strategic model systems.

Modeling of regional transport and logistics systems

The article examines the issue of the effectiveness of goods shipment inside the country. Progress in the methods and principles of managing transportation processes allows to increase the speed of delivery, improve the quality of service, and regulate transport tariffs. Considering the current state of Russia with its vast territory, a wide variety of natural and climatic and economic-geographical conditions, it can be noted that it needs a clear logistics system to link production procedures. The aim of the study is the formation of a developed regional transport and logistics system. To achieve this goal, we consider two main tasks: the identification of regions in terms of the priority of design and location of logistics centers; optimization of logistic schemes of cargo delivery. Creation of a developed regional transport and logistics system is the most important condition for the economic development of the country, as well as the development of interregional economic interaction, which will increase the social and economic potential of the regions. Increasing the economic efficiency of commodity exchange is achieved both through the effective organization of a system of interregional logistics centers, and through the development of interregional economic interaction.

Air pollution knowledge assessments (APnA) for 20 Indian cities

Delhi, with a population of 22 million (1.6% of national total) is one of the most polluted capital cities in the world. Nearly 50% of the published literature in India focus on air pollution in Delhi. However, air pollution impacts are not limited only to the capital city. Yet, there is little information and attempt to quantify these impacts for Tier 1 and 2 cities, even though they account for >30% of India's population. To remedy this vacuum of information, the Air Pollution knowledge Assessments (APnA) city program deliberately focuses on 20 Indian cities, other than Delhi. We established baseline multi-pollutant high-resolution emissions inventory, after collating information from multiple resources detailed in this paper, which was used to estimate spatial concentrations of key pollutants across city's urban airshed using WRF-CAMx chemical transport modeling system. The inventory includes anthropogenic sources, such as transport (road, rail, ship, and aviation), large scale power generation (from coal, diesel, and gas power plants), small scale power generation (from diesel generator sets for household use, commercial use, and agricultural water pumping), small and medium scale industries, dust (road resuspension and construction), domestic (cooking, heating, and lighting), open waste burning, and open fires and non-anthropogenic sources, such as sea salt, dust storms, biogenic, and lightning. The emissions inventory is currently in use for 3-day advance air quality forecasting for public release on an on-going basis. Using meteorological parameters and big data like gridded speed maps from google, the emissions inventory is dynamically updated. The results from this research will be valuable to local and national policy makers - especially the information on source contributions to air pollution.

Sediment Transport Model Including Short-Lived Radioisotopes: Model Description and Idealized Test Cases

Geochronologies derived from sediment cores in coastal locations are often used to infer event bed characteristics such as deposit thicknesses and accumulation rates. Such studies commonly use naturally occurring, short-lived radioisotopes, such as Beryllium-7 (7Be) and Thorium-234 (234Th), to study depositional and post-depositional processes. These radioisotope activities, however, are not generally represented in sediment transport models that characterize coastal flood and storm deposition with grain size patterns and deposit thicknesses. We modified the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) to account for reactive tracers and used this capability to represent the behavior of these short-lived radioisotopes on the sediment bed. This paper describes the model and presents results from a set of idealized, one-dimensional (vertical) test cases. The model configuration represented fluvial deposition followed by periods of episodic storm resuspension. Sensitivity tests explored the influence on seabed radioisotope profiles by the intensities of bioturbation and wave resuspension and the thickness of fluvial deposits. The intensity of biodiffusion affected the persistence of fluvial event beds as evidenced by 7Be. Both resuspension and biodiffusion increased the modeled seabed inventory of 234Th. A thick fluvial deposit increased the seabed inventory of 7Be and 234Th but mixing over time greatly reduced the difference in inventory of 234Th in fluvial deposits of different thicknesses.

An Intelligent Transportation System to control air pollution and road traffic in cities integrating CEP and Colored Petri Nets

Air pollution generated by road traffic in large cities is a great concern in today’s society since pollution has an important impact on human health, even causing premature deaths. To address the problem, this paper presents an Intelligent Transportation System model based on Complex Event Processing technology and Colored Petri Nets (CPNs). It takes into consideration the levels of environmental pollution and road traffic, according to the air quality levels accepted by the international recommendations as well as the handbook emission factors for road transport methodology. This proposal, therefore, tackles a common problem in today’s large cities, where traffic restrictions must be applied due to environmental pollution. CPNs are used in this work as a tool to make decisions about traffic regulations, so as to reduce pollution levels.

Urban Dispersion Modelling Capabilities Related to the UDINEE Intensive Operating Period 4

The Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling system, developed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, is evaluated using measurement data from the Joint Urban 2003 gas-tracer measurements conducted in Oklahoma City, USA. This activity has been coordinated within the Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE) project, led by the European Commission–Joint Research Centre. Four different set-ups for the QUIC program are evaluated using different types of wind-speed data, such as local onsite measurements and flow fields produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model. The simulation results are evaluated against measured data for instantaneous puff releases from intensive operation period 4 of the Joint Urban 2003 field experiment. The selection of performance measures is based on the assumptions made for the UDINEE project. The differences in the results of simulations for various set-ups are described.

Effects of Density‐Driven Flows on the Long‐Term Morphodynamic Evolution of Funnel‐Shaped Estuaries

AbstractSubtidal flows driven by density gradients affect the tide‐averaged sediment transport in estuaries and, therefore, can influence their long‐term morphodynamic evolution. The three‐dimensional Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport modeling system is applied to numerically analyze the effects of baroclinicity and Earth's rotation on the long‐term morphodynamic evolution of idealized funnel‐shaped estuaries. The morphodynamic evolution in all the analyzed cases reproduced structures identified in many tide‐dominated estuaries: a meandering region in the fluvial‐tidal transition zone, a tidal maximum area close to the head, and a turbidity maxima region in the brackish zone. As the morphology of the estuaries evolved, the tidal propagation (including its asymmetry), the salinity gradient, and the strength of subtidal flows changed, which reflects the strong bathymetric control of these systems. The comparison with barotropic simulations showed that the three‐dimensional structure of the flow (induced by density gradients) has leading order effects on the morphodynamic evolution. Density gradient‐driven subtidal flows (1) promote near‐bed flood dominance and, consequently, the import of sediment into the estuary, (2) accelerate the morphodynamic evolution of the upper/middle estuary, (3) promote a more concave shape of the upper estuary and reduce the ebb‐tidal delta volume, and (4) produce an asymmetric bathymetry and inhibit the formation of alternate bars that would form under barotropic conditions. This latter effect is the consequence of the combined effect of Earth's rotation and baroclinicity.

Descriptive model of functioning in aggregate of auto transportation system dispatch of freight by vehicles in cities

The transport operator needs instruments for making calculations that will permit determining the possibility of fulfilling obligations for the contract on a scientific basis. The existing models of auto transportation systems involve transportation of freight on several simultaneously and isolated functioning separate pendulum routes with a reverse unloaded run. The use of this model of vehicle systems has produced a negative result. This served as the basis for the development of a new model. The article describes the developed descriptive mathematical model of the aggregate of micro motor transport systems for the carriage of freight by vehicle dispatch in cities. This model permits considering features of practice within operational planning.

Guest Editorial Special Issue on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems

This Special Issue collects selected contributions presented at the 5th IEEE International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS) held in Naples, Italy in 2017. MT-ITS 2017 brought together researchers and practitioners from across Europe and the rest of the world to discuss emerging trends and developments in modeling and technology for Intelligent Transportation Systems, to present state-of-the-art updates and to facilitate cross-fertilization between these two key areas of transportation systems. Consistently, papers published in the special issue encompass timely and emerging research topics in modeling, optimization and assessment of transportation systems, as well as relevant technological issues.

Do new sea spray aerosol source functions improve the results of a regional aerosol model?

Sea spray aerosol particle is a dominating part of the global aerosol mass load of natural origin. Thus, it strongly influences the atmospheric radiation balance and cloud properties especially over the oceans. Uncertainties of the estimated climate impacts by this aerosol type are partly caused by the uncertainties in the particle size dependent emission fluxes of sea spray aerosol particle. We present simulations with a regional aerosol transport model system in two domains, for three months and compared the model results to measurements at four stations using various sea spray aerosol particle source source functions. Despite these limitations we found the results using different source functions are within the range of most model uncertainties. Especially the model's ability to produce realistic wind speeds is crucial. Furthermore, the model results are more affected by a function correcting the emission flux for the effect of the sea surface temperature than by the use of different source functions.

Study on Operation of Arctic Offshore Complex by Means of Multicomponent Process-Based Simulation

We developed a detailed simulation model of the Arctic marine transport system (MTS) for oil platform Prirazlomnaya. The model has a multidisciplinary nature and involves: sub-models of various transport and technological processes; stochastic weather generator to obtain time series of 15 environmental parameters; and contextual planning algorithm to build voyage plan considering several types of ships and cargoes. We used a significant amount of real operational data to identify model parameters and to prove its statistical reliability. Our main scientific task is to investigate the interaction of various processes of a different nature, while the practical aim is to find a set of measures to increase the efficiency of MTS. The results of the study reveal many examples of the mutual interaction of various processes that need to be considered at the design stage to avoid technical mistakes. The study formed a basis for making managerial decisions at the top level of Gazprom Neft Shelf Company.

An LES Investigation of the Near-Wake Flow Topology of a Simplified Heavy Vehicle

Recent experimental investigations by McArthur et al. (J. Fluids Struct. 66, 293–314, 2016) in the wake of a simplified heavy vehicle or commonly known as the ground transportation system (GTS) model has shown that the flow topology is invariant over a large range of Reynolds numbers [2.7 × 104 − 2 × 106]. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the initial flow topology at a Reynolds number of 2.7 × 104, using well-resolved large eddy simulations (LES). In the vertical midplane behind the GTS, a flow state which is anti-symmetric to that reported in McArthur et al. (J. Fluids Struct. 66, 293–314, 2016) is observed here, thereby, confirming the possibility of occurrence of the complementary bi-stable flow state. The occurrence of this bi-stable state does not depend on the ground clearance between the GTS and the ground plane, as a similar flow topology is observed at both small and large gap heights. Furthermore, the flow topology in the vertical midplane is also found to be insensitive to the incoming flow for small yaw angles. However, complex flow behaviour is observed in the wake for larger yaw angles, where the flow topology in the vertical midplane becomes nearly symmetric, while an asymmetric flow topology is now observed in the lateral midplane in the near wake. Furthermore, the corner vortices which originate from either side at the front of the model merge in the far wake, leading to a large vortex structure nearly equal to the height of the model. The near-wake topology of the GTS is analysed and compared with previous studies for a range of scenarios, and the forces on the GTS are computed.

Estimating multi-year [formula omitted] origin-destination demand using high-granular multi-source traffic data

Dynamic origin-destination (OD) demand is central to transportation system modeling and analysis. The dynamic OD demand estimation problem (DODE) has been studied for decades, most of which solve the DODE problem on a typical day or several typical hours. There is a lack of methods that estimate high-resolution dynamic OD demand for a sequence of many consecutive days over several years (referred to as 24/7 OD in this research). Having multi-year 24/7 OD demand would allow a better understanding of characteristics of dynamic OD demands and their evolution/trends over the past few years, a critical input for modeling transportation system evolution and reliability. This paper presents a data-driven framework that estimates day-to-day dynamic OD using high-granular traffic counts and speed data collected over many years. The proposed framework statistically clusters daily traffic data into typical traffic patterns using t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and k-means methods. A GPU-based stochastic projected gradient descent method is proposed to efficiently solve the multi-year 24/7 DODE problem. It is demonstrated that the new method efficiently estimates the 5-min dynamic OD demand for every single day from 2014 to 2016 on I-5 and SR-99 in the Sacramento region. The resultant multi-year 24/7 dynamic OD demand reveals the daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal and yearly change in travel demand in a region, implying intriguing demand characteristics over the years.

Bad behaviour or societal failure? Perceptions of the factors contributing to drivers' engagement in the fatal five driving behaviours

The so-called ‘fatal five’ behaviours (drink and drug driving, distraction and inattention, speeding, fatigue, and failure to wear a seat belt) are known to be the major behavioural contributory factors to road trauma. However, little is known about the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. This article presents the findings from a study which collected and analysed data on the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. The study involved a survey of drivers' perceptions of the causes of each behaviour and a subject matter expert workshop to gain the views of road safety experts. The results were mapped onto a systems ergonomics model of the road transport system in Queensland, Australia, to show where in the system the factors reside. In addition to well-known factors relating to drivers' knowledge, experience and personality, additional factors at the higher levels of the road transport system related to road safety policy, transport system design, road rules and regulations, and societal issues were identified. It is concluded that the fatal five behaviours have a web of interacting contributory factors underpinning them and are systems problems rather than driver-centric problems. The implications for road safety interventions are discussed.

Simulation analysis of the western 3rd ring road project in Krakow and its forecast impact upon the urban transport network performance

The paper presents results from simulation analysis of the western 3rd ring road project in the city of Krakow (i.e. Trasa Lagiewnicka, Trasa Pychowicka and Trasa Zwierzyniecka), performed in the macroscopic model of transport system in the Krakow metropolitan area. Simulation works reveal shifts in traffic flows and changes in urban transport network performance which would likely take place after the stage-wise construction of consecutive 3rd ring road western sections. Results indicate that the analysed road schemes would indeed have a relevant impact upon travel conditions, though in initial stages these would be rather limited and confined to the southern part of the city. Therefore, completion of the whole western section of the 3rd ring road is crucial to its overall effectiveness and would only then bring substantial benefits on a city-wide scale. Simulation works seem to confirm that the future 3rd ring road would become an essential and highly-utilised link in the urban road network and would provide a much more efficient connection between the northern and southern parts of the Krakow city. However, apart from the projected benefits, it is also important to underline potential negative implications – and consequently, further changes in city transport system should envisage reduction of the road network capacity within the inner-city area. This would then provide the best possible chance of fostering the improvements achieved with the 3rd ring road scheme: i.e., positive changes in accessibility and travelling conditions across the whole city and long-term, sustainable traffic congestion relief in the inner-city Krakow area.

Potential for the Invasive Species Aedes Albopictus and Arboviral Transmission through the Chabahar Port in Iran.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses are emerging infectious disease threats wherever suitable vectors, hosts, and habitat are present. The aim of the present study was to use the bioagent transport and environmental modeling system (BioTEMS) to identify the potential for arbovirus-infected Aedes species to invade the Chabahar area in southeastern Iran. ArcGIS geospatial analysis software, Statistica software, and BioTEMS were used to analyze geographic information and conduct data analysis. BioTEMS utilizes up to several hundred abiotic and biotic factors to produce risk and vulnerability assessments for biological agents and infectious diseases. The output of BioTEMS was validated using published predictive models, and most importantly published collection data of Aedes species in Iran. There appears to have been two separate invasion events by Ae. albopictus into the southern region of Iran, first preceding 2009 and then again in 2013. BioTEMS identified two probable areas of introduction during the 2009 time frame, either through one or both the Chabahar ports or the Iranshahr airport with subsequent spread through vehicular transport. BioTEMS identified the port as an introduction zone for ZIKAV with high-risk zones and identifies gap zones during the 2013 time frame. Recommended surveillance sites are provided. The air and maritime ports of Iran serve international customers, and are therefore vulnerable to import and invasion of mosquito vectors and arboviruses. Based on comparisons with other published low-resolution models, BioTEMS provides information for medical and public health professionals conducting integrated mosquito management, preventive medicine, and epidemiological surveillance.

The influence of logistics of supplies on the process of modeling of combined transport systems in method

The object of the study is to strip mill hot-rolled steel mill in Huta ArcelorMittal Poland in Cracow. The paper presents a model rolling mill logistic system which incorporates the characteristic of its subsystems: the movement and storage of materials. System components are mill production equipment, transportation, storage interop and finished products. Logistic approach requires inter alia: minimizing the transition time of materials through the system, minimizing inventories to production and should have reduced energy consumption and production tools used to manufacture the final product. For the model should be the basis to formulate the logistic system of strip mill, taking into account both the technological and economical operation of the test mill. To accomplish the task of material flow simulator was used Dosimis-3.

Mixed logical dynamical modeling and hybrid model predictive control of public transport operations

Bus transport systems cannot retain scheduled headways without feedback control due to their unstable nature, leading to irregularities such as bus bunching, and ultimately to increased service times and decreased bus service quality. Traditional anti-bunching methods considering only regularization of spacings might unnecessarily slow down buses en route. In this work a detailed but computationally lightweight dynamical model of a single line bus transport system involving both continuous and binary states is developed. Furthermore a hybrid model predictive control (MPC) scheme is proposed, with a dual objective of regularizing spacings and improving speed of bus service operations. Performance of the predictive controller is compared with I- and PI-controllers via extensive simulations using the proposed model. Results indicate the potential of the hybrid MPC in avoiding bus bunching and decreasing passenger delays inside and outside the buses.

Cohesive and mixed sediment in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.6) implemented in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST r1234)

Abstract. We describe and demonstrate algorithms for treating cohesive and mixed sediment that have been added to the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS version 3.6), as implemented in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST Subversion repository revision 1234). These include the following: floc dynamics (aggregation and disaggregation in the water column); changes in floc characteristics in the seabed; erosion and deposition of cohesive and mixed (combination of cohesive and non-cohesive) sediment; and biodiffusive mixing of bed sediment. These routines supplement existing non-cohesive sediment modules, thereby increasing our ability to model fine-grained and mixed-sediment environments. Additionally, we describe changes to the sediment bed layering scheme that improve the fidelity of the modeled stratigraphic record. Finally, we provide examples of these modules implemented in idealized test cases and a realistic application.