Tool For Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Preliminary Forecasting of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides in the Wildfire Burned Areas of Western Greece

A new methodology for shallow landslide forecasting in wildfire burned areas is proposed by estimating the annual probability of rainfall threshold exceedance. For this purpose, extensive geological fieldwork was carried out in 122 landslides, which have been periodically activated in Western Greece, after the devastating wildfires that occurred in August 2007 and burned large areas in several parts of Western Greece. In addition, daily rainfall data covering more than 40 years has been collected and statistically processed to estimate the exceedance probability of the rainfall threshold above which these landslides are activated. The objectives of this study are to quantify the magnitude and duration of rainfall above which landslides in burned areas are activated, as well as to introduce a novel methodology on rainfall-induced landslide forecasting. It has been concluded that rainfall-induced landslide annual exceedance probability in the burned areas is higher when cumulative rainfall duration ranges from 6 to 9 days with local differences due to the prevailing geological conditions and landscape characteristics. The proposed methodology can be used as a basis for landslide forecasting in wildfire-affected areas, especially when triggered by rainfall, and can be further developed as a tool for preliminary landslide hazard assessment.

Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UASs) Reveal the Morphological Changes at Stromboli Volcano (Italy) before, between, and after the 3 July and 28 August 2019 Paroxysmal Eruptions

In July and August 2019, two paroxysmal eruptions dramatically changed the morphology of the crater terrace that hosts the active vents of Stromboli volcano (Italy). Here, we document these morphological changes, by using 2259 UAS-derived photographs from eight surveys and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetric techniques, resulting in 3D point clouds, orthomosaics, and digital surface models (DSMs) with resolution ranging from 8.1 to 12.4 cm/pixel. We focus on the morphological evolution of volcanic features and volume changes in the crater terrace and the upper part of the underlying slope (Sciara del Fuoco). We identify both crater terrace and lava field variations, with vents shifting up to 47 m and the accumulation of tephra deposits. The maximum elevation changes related to the two paroxysmal eruptions (in between May and September 2019) range from +41.4 to −26.4 m at the lava field and N crater area, respectively. Throughout September 2018–June 2020, the total volume change in the surveyed area was +447,335 m3. Despite Stromboli being one of the best-studied volcanoes worldwide, the UAS-based photogrammetry products of this study provide unprecedented high spatiotemporal resolution observations of its entire summit area, in a period when volcanic activity made the classic field inspections and helicopter overflights too risky. Routinely applied UAS operations represent an effective and evolving tool for volcanic hazard assessment and to support decision-makers involved in volcanic surveillance and civil protection operations.

Model-free kinetic determination of pre-exponential factor and reaction mechanism in accelerating rate calorimetry

Accelerating rate calorimetry (ARC) is an essential tool in thermal hazard assessment of self-reactive chemicals. Compared to the thermal analysis, the kinetic approaches for ARC are relatively less. To enrich the kinetic approaches for ARC, the feasibility of a model-free based pre-exponential factor and reaction model determining method in ARC data process is investigated in this article. By using the compensation effect in association with Friedman's isoconversional method, the Eα, lnAα and f(α) dependency with α are obtained from several experiments under different thermal inertia. Then, the apparent reaction mechanism function is determined based on non-linear regression method. For effective verification, the numerical simulations are carried out based on a Sestak-Berggren decomposition model. In addition, the applicability of this kinetic approach is investigated by studying the effect of NaOH on the thermal decomposition of cumene hydroperoxide/cumene solutions. Both the simulative and experimental results show the value of this kinetic approach.

Microbial Load and Prevalence of Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. in Macadamia Nut Production Systems

This study evaluated the potential impact of environmental factors and harvesting practices on the microbial load of macadamia nuts. Three farms located in primary macadamia nut production regions, the Mbombela (A), Barberton (B) and White River (C) areas in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, were sampled over a 2-year period. A total of 264 irrigation water (54), soil (30), and macadamia nut (180) samples were collected and evaluated for microbial load. All water samples had mean Escherichia coli loads below 1,000 MPN/100 mL, which is the standard regulatory requirement for agricultural water considered fit for irrigation in South Africa. Mean total aerobic plate counts of nut-in-husk on-tree samples (3.91 log CFU/g; n = 60) were higher after harvesting (5.98 log CFU/g; n = 60) but were lower after dehusking (to 4.89 log CFU/g; n = 60) on nut-in-shell samples. Salmonella spp. were only detected in water samples from farm B (67%; n = 18) and farm C (15%; n = 18). Neither Listeria monocytogenes nor Salmonella spp. were detected in the soil samples. E. coli was only detected in 20% (n = 10) of soil samples collected from two farms (farms A and B). None of the E. coli isolated in this study was positive for the eae, stx1, and stx2 enterohemorrhagic E. coli virulence genes. This study provides basic data that can be used in the development of macadamia nut-specific hazard assessment tools within primary production environments.

Roof fall hazard assessment with the use of artificial neural network

The paper presents the results of roof fall hazard analysis for the copper mines in Poland. At first, RMR and RFRI systems have been checked as a tool for roof fall hazard assessment. It was proved that rock mass deteriorates in time because of mining operation at the site, hence the roof fall phenomena analysis needs a new approach. In the next step of the analysis the key factors of roof deterioration were determined, and divided into four groups: geological, mining, technical and monitoring. It was demonstrated that only regular roof monitoring can ensure the proper rock fall hazard assessment. Subsequently, the artificial neural network was created and several dozen simulations were conducted. As a result, two dimensionless indices were developed. The first one shows predisposition of a part of the rock mass to destruction, dislocation and deformation - CRFP - Coefficient of Roof Fall – Predisposition and the second one represents predisposition and possibility of maintaining of the working - CRFM- Coefficient of Roof Fall - Maintenance. The research on roof fall details and the running workings’ roof observations allowed for categorization of the values of both indices, and providing that way the information about roof stability CRFP, and the information about necessary measures and solutions for the supervisory staff in regard of monitoring of the roof rocks CRFM. Both indices allow for a reliable roof fall hazard assessment by comprehensively combining information from monitoring, observations and investigations.

The Balance of Methane and Ventilation as a Tool for Methane Hazard Assessment in the Areas of Longwalls Exploited in Hard Coal Mines

ABSTRACT Purpose This article presents an algorithm for the current assessment of methane hazards during the exploitation of longwalls in conditions where there are methane hazards. The algorithm has been developed within the framework of the international AVENTO project (Advanced Tools For Ventilation and Methane Emissions Control), carried out in Poland, inter alia, by the Central Mining Institute in cooperation with Kompania Weglowa SA (KW SA).The algorithm was developed based on the analysis of the ventilation-methane balances for longwall areas, based on the data registered by automatic methane sensors and the velocity of ventilating air. Methods Multiple research methods were used, such as: observation, a questionnaire and statistical methods.The questionnaire was used for the preliminary determination of methane hazards in the longwalls belonging to the industrial partner (KW SA). The polls were used to obtain relevant information about the hazards and means of prevention taken, such as: the methane content in the seam, the emissions of methane into the exploitation workings, the volume of methane drainage, the ventilation system used, and the amount of ventilation air used to combat the methane hazard. Based on the poll's data, the longwalls with methane emissions in their environment were selected for testing, based on long-term observations of changes in the concentrations of methane in the ventilation air and in the methane drainage net. Methane concentration measurements were based on the values recorded by the methane sensors located in the workings which were considered to be most dangerous. For data processing a statistical method was used. In the research, the average results of the indicated concentrations of methane from the methane sensors were used for the correlation between the average values of methane emission in the region of the longwall or methane drainage, with other parameters, such as absolute pressure changes on the surface, technological processes or cycles in the longwall. For the evaluation of the methane hazard, an indicator was proposed, these being the ratio of the ventilation methane bearing capacity to the criterial methane bearing capacity. An increase of this indicator indicates an increase in the level of methane hazard. Results On the basis of the average daily value of the methane hazard status indicator, an algorithm for the assessment and visualization of methane hazard in the areas of the active longwalls was developed. The algorithm contains a list of technical and organizational actions which should be taken in the event of unfavourable risk assessment of methane hazard, reflecting very high risk or unsafe conditions for conducting further work. Practical implications The proposed algorithm can be used for the ongoing assessment of methane hazard in areas of exploited longwalls in order to support staff in surface control rooms and in ventilation departments. Originality/value The current assessment of methane hazard in the areas of longwalls which are under methane conditions by means of the developed algorithm will improve the safety of exploitation.

Trace-metal distribution and ecological risk assessment in sediments of a sheltered coastal area (Gulf of Gaeta, central-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) in relation to hydrodynamic conditions

This study investigates the relationship between sediment contamination and hydrodynamic conditions in the Gaeta Gulf (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy), an anthropogenically impacted and sheltered coastal area. The pollution levels, potential toxicity, and ecological risk of trace metals were analysed in 16 sediment sampling sites using Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQGs), the Adverse Effect Index (AEI), and the Mean ERM Quotient (m-ERM-Q). The bottom shear stress of the study area, evaluated using an annual simulation of a 3D numerical model, was used to calculate a new Sediment Mobilisation Index (SMI) that detects the coastal zones where a low probability of sediment resuspension occurs. As, Ni, and Cu concentrations exceeded the Threshold Effects Level (TEL) guideline value and AEI limit in several sampling sites, indicating their ability to produce adverse effects on biota. Moreover m-ERM-Q showed the highest values of potential ecological risk in most of the sampling sites located in the inner part of the Gulf of Gaeta. In this area, the highest SMI values were also identified, demonstrating that there is a tight relationship between the two indexes (R2 = 0.8214). The application of SMI in sheltered areas will help achieve high performance of monitoring and hazard assessment tools through obtaining predictable responses on hotspot identification.

Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 2: Granular slides

Abstract. The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-benchmarked numerical tool for landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is validated using laboratory experiment data for landslide-generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the first part, in a companion paper, considers rigid slides. The experimental data used have been proposed by the US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and were established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). Three of the seven benchmark problems proposed in that workshop dealt with tsunamis generated by rigid slides and are collected in the companion paper (Macías et al., 2021). Another three benchmarks considered tsunamis generated by granular slides. They are the subject of the present study. The seventh benchmark problem proposed the field case of Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and can be found in Macías et al. (2017). In order to reproduce the laboratory experiments dealing with granular slides, two models need to be coupled: one for the granular slide and a second one for the water dynamics. The coupled model used consists of a new and efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model coupled with a Savage–Hutter model. To introduce the multilayer model more fluidly, we first present the equations of the one-layer model, Landslide-HySEA, with both strong and weak couplings between the fluid layer and the granular slide. Then, a brief description of the multilayer model equations and the numerical scheme used is included. The dispersive properties of the multilayer model can be found in the companion paper. Then, results for the three NTHMP benchmark problems dealing with tsunamis generated by granular slides are presented with a description of each benchmark problem.

Locking-derived tsunami scenarios for the most recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile: implications for tsunami hazard assessment

The ever-increasing data from continues geodetic networks has allowed to reveal first-order spatial relations between pre-seismic highly locked zones on the interface and regions of large coseismic slip. Here we use a distribution of locking degree and recurrence of historical earthquakes along the Chilean subduction zone to estimate the slip deficit accumulated since previous tsunamigenic earthquakes and use these constrains to simulate tsumani signals. We generate tsunami models for the recent five major tsunamigenic earthquakes in Chile during the last decade: Maule (2010), Pisagua (2014), Illapel (2015), Melinka (2016) and Valparaiso (2017). Results were compared with tsunami records to evaluate the use of locking degree as an estimate of displacement of future earthquakes and as a tool for tsunami hazard assessment. Our tsunami simulations for the Maule (2010) and Illapel (2015), earthquakes that filled a seismic gap, reproduce well the tsunami observations, for the case of Pisagua (2014), Valparaiso (2016) and Melinka (2017) although it exists a correspondence in the areas of greater degree of locking with the coseismic slip, there is also an imbalance between the energy accumulated and released in the interseismic period considered according to the historical seismicity. This indicate that the rupture of small asperities (areas that release high slip during earthquakes) may have a complex pattern of recurrence and do not fully affect a locked patch. Locking-derived tsunami scenarios represent well tsunami observations of earthquakes that ruptured a locked seismic gap, and they can be used in addition to the actual methodologies to improve the estimation of tsunami hazard.

Epigenetic biomarkers as tools for chemical hazard assessment: Gene expression profiling using the model Danio rerio

Recent reports raise the concern that exposure to several environmental chemicals may induce persistent changes that go beyond the exposed organisms, being transferred to subsequent generations even in the absence of the original chemical insult. These changes in subsequent non-exposed generations have been related to epigenetic changes. Although highly relevant for hazard and risk assessment, biomarkers of epigenetic modifications that can be associated with adversity, are still not integrated into hazard assessment frameworks. Here, in order to validate new biomarkers of epigenetic modifications in a popular animal model, zebrafish embryos were exposed to different concentrations of Bisphenol A (0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg/L) and Valproic Acid (0.8, 4, 20 and 100 mg/L), two chemicals reported to alter the modulation of the epigenome. Morphological abnormalities and epigenetic changes were assessed at 80 hours-post fertilization, including DNA global methylation and gene expression of both DNA and histone epigenetic modifications. Gene expression changes were detected at concentrations below those inducing morphological abnormalities. These results further support the importance of combining epigenetic biomarkers with apical endpoints to improve guidelines for chemical testing and hazard assessment, and favour the integration of new biomarkers of epigenetic modifications into the standardized OECD test guideline 236 with zebrafish embryos.

Model Complexity as Determining Factor for In Vitro Nanosafety Studies: Effects of Silver and Titanium Dioxide Nanomaterials in Intestinal Models.

With the rising interest in the effects of orally ingested engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), much effort is undertaken to develop and advance intestinal in vitro models. The cytotoxic, proinflammatory, and DNA damaging properties of polyvinylpyrrolidone-capped silver (Ag-PVP) and titanium dioxide (TiO2 , P25) ENM in four in vitro models of increasing complexity-from proliferating Caco-2 and HT29-MTX-E12 monocultures to long-term transwell triple cultures including THP-1 macrophages to reproduce the human intestine in healthy versus inflamed-like state-are studied. Results are compared against in vivo effects of the same ENM through intestinal tissue analysis from 28-day oral exposure studies in mice. Adverse responses are only observed in monocultures and suggest toxic potential for both ENM, typically showing stronger effects for Ag-PVP than for TiO2 . By contrast, no adverse effects are observed in either the transwell cultures or the analyzed murine tissues. The data provide further support that monoculture models represent a cost and time efficient tool for early-phase hazard assessment. However, the observed similarities in morphology and ENM effects in murine intestinal tissue and the in vitro triple culture model suggest that advanced multifacetted research questions concerning oral ENM exposure are more adequately addressed by the more complex and time intensive models.

An Evaluation of the Utility of a Decision-Maker-Driven Climate Hazard Assessment Tool

AbstractDecision-makers who have little to no formal training in atmospheric science are increasingly accessing and interpreting climate data and information within planning contexts. Many climate decision support tools (DSTs) have been developed to support decision-making across a variety of sectors and scales, but evaluation of such tools has only recently begun to take place. This study conducted a summative evaluation of the utility of a decision-maker-driven climate hazard assessment tool, the Simple Planning Tool (SPT), a climate DST. The SPT was inspired by and codeveloped with emergency managers, planners, and a boundary organization in two south-central U.S. states. The SPT’s target audience was surveyed to assess the tool’s utility, including its saliency, credibility, trustworthiness, and reasons for and impact of information use on decision-making. A high utility was found despite a relatively limited user base at the time of the study. In addition, SPT users represented a range of jurisdictional sizes, geographical scales, and years of experience. Although the small user sample limits generalizability of the study, it is likely a realistic reflection of the number of emergency managers and planners in the two states who are actively and regularly incorporating climate hazards into planning. The data also indicate that climate boundary organizations and climate service providers should work toward utilizing trusted information sources, channels, and procedures within the sectors to which their tool applies to help increase decision-maker awareness and use of their tool.

Predictive validity of three home fall hazard assessment tools for older adults in Thailand.

This study aimed to examine the predictive validity of two internationally well-known instruments, the Modified Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool (Modified HOME FAST) and the Modified Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool-Self Report (Modified HOME FAST-SR), and the newly developed Thai Home Falls Hazard Assessment Tool (Thai-HFHAT) (69 items) in predicting falls among older Thai adults. It also aimed to examine the predictive validity of the two abbreviated versions (44 and 27 items) of the Thai-HFHAT, which were developed post hoc to accommodate older adults’ limited literacy and poor vision and to facilitate the identification of high-impact home fall hazards that are prevalent in the Thailand context. A prospective cohort study was conducted among 450 participants aged 60 years and above who were assessed by the aforementioned tools at baseline, for which data on fall incidence were then collected during the one-year follow-up. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs); then, Harrell’s C-statistics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to identify the best cutoff point, sensitivity and specificity for each instrument. The results showed that the fall hazard rate was 2.04 times per 1,000 person-days. Taking into account both the predictive validity and applicability, the Thai-HFHAT (44 items) was found to be the most suitable screening tool due to its highest sensitivity and specificity (93% and 72%) at the cutoff score of 18. In conclusion, our study showed that these internationally validated home fall hazard assessment tools were quite applicable for Thailand, but further tailoring the tools into a specific local context yielded even more highly valid tools in predicting fall risk among older Thai adults. Although these findings were well reproducible by inferring from the internal validation results, further external validation in the independent population is necessary.

Hazard Assessment of Iran Provinces based on the Health Ministry Tool in 2019

Background: Iran is a disaster-prone country, which is subjected to various hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, fire, and traffic accidents. Objectives: This study aimed to determine the priority and risk of various hazards threatening the public in different provinces of Iran in 2019. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out from March to September 2019 using data related to 31 provinces of Iran. The assessment was conducted using hazard assessment tools presented by the Iranian Ministry of Health. A total of 70 natural, man-made, and complex hazards were analyzed in this study. The data were collected by holding sessions and conducting individual and group interviews with the officials of provincial Red Crescent Societies as well as reviewing the databases of the Red Crescent Society and the Disaster Management Organization. The participants consisted of operation analysis experts. Results: In terms of the frequency of occurrence, earthquake (12: 38.7%), traffic accidents (7: 22.6%), and flood (6: 19.4%) obtained the highest priority in different provinces in descending order. Furthermore, regarding the total scores of hazards in all provinces, flood (78.6), earthquake (75.3), traffic accidents (71.9), drought (60.1), and building collapse (58.1) had the highest priority in descending order. Conclusion: Given the extreme vulnerability of Iran to various disasters, authorities should develop strategic plans to reduce the risks associated with high-priority disasters. In addition, crisis and disaster management policymakers must develop separate detailed disaster response plans for each hazard in order to increase the preparedness at organizational and community levels. Public training can also raise awareness among the public and help people cope better with various hazards.

Intensity Reassessment of the 2017 Pohang Earthquake Mw = 5.4 (South Korea) Using ESI-07 Scale

The earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) around the epicentral area of the Pohang earthquake (Mw-5.4) that occurred on 15 November 2017 have been collected and classified using the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale) proposed by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) focus group. The shallow-focus 15 November Pohang earthquake did not produce any surface rupture, but caused extensive secondary environmental effects and damage to life-line structures. This earthquake was one of the most damaging earthquakes during the instrumental seismic era of the Korean Peninsula. The EEEs included extensive liquefaction, ground cracks, ground settlement, localized rockfall, and variation of the water table. The main objective of this paper was to carry forward a comparative assessment of the Pohang earthquake’s intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and the ESI-07 scale. With that objective, this study will also make a substantial contribution to any future revision of the ESI-07 scale, which mostly comprises case studies from Europe and South America. The comparison of the ESI-07 scale with traditional intensity scales similar to the intensity scale used by the Korean Meteorological Administration for the epicentral areas showed 1–2-degree differences in intensity. Moreover, the ESI scale provided a clearer picture of the intensity around the epicentral area, which is mostly agricultural land with a lack of urban units or buildings. This study urges the integration of the traditional and ESI-07 scale for such small magnitude earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula as well as around the world in future. This will predict seismic intensity more precisely and hence provide a more-effective seismic hazard estimation, particularly in areas of low seismic activity. The present study will also provide a useful and reliable tool for the seismic hazard assessment of similar earthquakes around the study area and land-use planning at a local scale considering the secondary effects.

An Idealized Landslide Failure Surface and Its Impacts on the Traveling Paths

Numerical scenario simulation may serve as an efficient and powerful tool for hazard assessment, but it often suffers from the lack of a definite failure surface before the occurrence of failure. In the present study, an idealized curved surface (ICS) is proposed for mimicking the sliding surface in the numerical simulation. Different from the conventional Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) or Scoops3D method, this idealized surface consists of two curvatures, which are defined in the down-slope and cross-slope directions, respectively. Applying this idealized surface to 45 historical landslides of sliding type in southern Taiwan, two specific relations of geometry (length, curvature radius and depth) in the down-slope and cross-slope directions are figured out. These specific relations simplify the complexity of constructing the idealized curved surface for areas prone to landslides for the sake of hazard assessments. That is, once the area with landslide susceptibility is identified and the associated released volume is given, the idealized sliding surface can be uniquely determined with the help of these geometric relations. The proposed method is integrated with a two-phase grain-fluid model and numerically validated against a historical large-scale landslide for investigating its feasibility. Although the idealized failure surface may deviate from that determined by the post-event investigation, it is interesting to note that the major discrepancy is mainly found at the first stage. The differences (both flow thickness and paths) reduce over time, and only minor discrepancies can be identified at the deposition stage. These findings reveal the weak co-relation between the geometry of the failure surface and the flow paths. It also indicates the feasibility of the ICS for predicting the flow paths by scenario investigation, especially when the exact sliding surface of a landslide is not available.

JA:2021-7. Compliance with Recommended Safety Standards among High-Risk Farm Equipment

ABSTRACT Purpose: Tractor rollovers, machine entanglements, and falls have consistently resulted in high rates of fatal and nonfatal injury on farms. While rates continue to be high, we know very little about how compliant machinery and equipment are with recommended safety standards. This study examined compliance with recommended safety standards among 31 farms in Iowa. Methods: We developed a hazard assessment tool to evaluate agricultural injury hazards on farms. We enrolled 31 row crop farms in Iowa between August and October, 2019. Data collection included an interview with the farm owner or operator and an environmental assessment of safety hazards. We graded various hazards associated with tractors, entanglements, and falls using measures of compliance to recommended safety standards. We also examined the prevalence of injury to owners or operators, family members, contract farmworkers, and hired farm hands. Results/Findings: More than half (52%) of the farm workers experienced an injury that resulted in medical attention. Among the 31 farms enrolled, there were three fatalities related to farm work, all of which occurred among owners or operators. We found that 87% of farms were compliant with roll-over protective structures (ROPS), and 71% of farms had a seatbelt in good working condition. For power take-off (PTO) powered implements, 16% of farms were compliant with PTO guards. For fixed implements, such as augers, grain dryers, and bench grinders, 48% of farms were compliant with recommended safety standards. Approximately two-thirds of farms were compliant with ladder safety, and 45% were compliant with having handrails at working elevations. Practical Application: Many of the tractors and other hazardous equipment were present and mostly compliant with recommended safety standards. However, there is clearly a need for improved compliance with recommended safety standards among specific hazardous equipment on the farm. Our hazard assessment tool provides farmers and other stakeholders with an opportunity to systematically and comprehensively evaluate compliance to recommended safety standards.

JA:2021-22. Digital Migration: Will Digital Technologies Transform Hazard Risk Assessment among an Emerging Agricultural Workforce?

ABSTRACT Purpose: This presentation focuses on implementation of digital technologies and mobile devices to transform hazard risk assessment among agricultural workers. Many hazard risk assessments have traditionally been paper-based. Often these instruments require instruction and practice to effectively use them. SaferFarm.org website was launched to assist those working in and around production agricultural worksites with properly identifying and assessing injury risks using digital media accessible through mobile devices. Moving assessment tools to a digital platform signals advancement in safety and health management tools. However, an emerging workforce, who are often referred to as digital natives, may ultimately hold insights into the functionality and accessibility of the mobile friendly hazard assessment tool. Methods: An informational presentation was developed by the authors and delivered to youth engaged in FFA and 4 H. Participants were from Pennsylvania and Utah. After the presentation, participants were recruited to register for the SaferFarm.org tool. Students practice the functions of the tool assessing one tractor, one PTO-powered machine, and one agricultural structure. Participants then completed a user experience survey. Results/Findings: Preliminary results showed that nearly one-half of participants (46%) indicated “it’s okay” when asked if the resource was interesting to use. Only 28% of participants indicated they were able to add the names of tractors, machines, and structures very easily. Fewer than a quarter of participants (16%) indicated that the prompts were very useful in helping them understand what to do. Almost half of participants (48%) indicated the features and components worked at an average speed. Practical application: This tool is valuable and addresses the need for relevant and real-time risk assessment on farms among new, young, less experienced workers. Incentives or intrinsic motivation to use the tool should be considered by management personnel. Connecting risk assessment/management and successful agricultural careers will provide practical methods for improving worksite safety.

Spatially distributed landslide triggering analyses accounting for coupled infiltration and volume change

Rainfall infiltration in unsaturated slopes alters the effective stress through pore water pressure changes, thus causing ground deformation. Although important to assess the timescale over which the margin of safety of a slope decreases, such coupled processes are rarely accounted in the context of spatially distributed hazard assessment procedures. In this paper, a physically based, spatially distributed model accounting for full hydro-mechanical coupling is discussed. The model relies on a vectorized finite element (FE) solver to calculate the stability of deformable unsaturated infinite slopes subjected to transient flow. First, the FE solver is used to study the response of individual slopes to a prolonged rainfall for three scenarios (i.e., rigid, swelling, and collapsible soil). Then, the model is used in the context of spatially distributed computations to assess spatiotemporal variations of factor of safety over a large area. For this purpose, a series of shallow landslides occurred in a mountainous landscape covered by collapsible loess deposits in northwestern China was used as test site. The analyses show that hydro-mechanical couplings affect the performance of the model in terms of computed failure time and areal extent of the unstable zones. Specifically, volume collapse due to suction decrease is found to reduce the time of failure compared with uncoupled computations obtained for a rigid soil scenario. The most substantial advantages of using coupled analyses have been reported with reference to gentle slopes, for which the higher rate of suction reduction driven by volume change was crucial to capture landslide source areas that would otherwise be overlooked by uncoupled analyses. The proposed methodology offers a complete tool for landslide hazard assessment, in that it incorporates sources of coupling between hydrology and mechanics that are crucial to replicate the physics of landslide initiation.

GIS-Based Geomorphological Map of the Calore River Floodplain Near Benevento (Southern Italy) Overflooded by the 15th October 2015 Event

On 15 October 2015, the floodplain of the Calore River underwent a destructive flood, with a stream stage increase up to 10 m. In this paper, we describe the GIS-based, object-oriented geomorphological map of the overflooded sectors of the Calore River floodplain near Benevento. The map graphically represents the field-checked results of a detailed geomorphological study carried out by means of GIS analysis of historical and topographic maps and orthophotos. Particular attention was devoted to the analysis of the channel adjustments experienced by the Calore River since the end of the 19th century, which shaped most of the landforms in the floodplain. The results showed that the investigated floodplain is characterized by abandoned channels, anthropogenic landforms, and five orders of recent river terraces separated by gently-sloping inactive fluvial scarps, less than 2 m high. On the oldest and/or more distal sectors of the floodplain, landforms are badly preserved, probably due to the more prolonged reshaping by natural erosional processes and anthropogenic activities, and to the high erodibility of the loose sediments in which they are shaped. The proposed map could be a key tool for a correct flood hazard assessment in the Benevento area, permitting thematic maps that avoid or reduce the negative effects of events similar to the 15 October 2015 flood.