Abstract
A new methodology for shallow landslide forecasting in wildfire burned areas is proposed by estimating the annual probability of rainfall threshold exceedance. For this purpose, extensive geological fieldwork was carried out in 122 landslides, which have been periodically activated in Western Greece, after the devastating wildfires that occurred in August 2007 and burned large areas in several parts of Western Greece. In addition, daily rainfall data covering more than 40 years has been collected and statistically processed to estimate the exceedance probability of the rainfall threshold above which these landslides are activated. The objectives of this study are to quantify the magnitude and duration of rainfall above which landslides in burned areas are activated, as well as to introduce a novel methodology on rainfall-induced landslide forecasting. It has been concluded that rainfall-induced landslide annual exceedance probability in the burned areas is higher when cumulative rainfall duration ranges from 6 to 9 days with local differences due to the prevailing geological conditions and landscape characteristics. The proposed methodology can be used as a basis for landslide forecasting in wildfire-affected areas, especially when triggered by rainfall, and can be further developed as a tool for preliminary landslide hazard assessment.
Highlights
Among all the recognized landslide causal factors, rainfall is widely recognized as the main landslide triggering factor, with mass movement phenomena, such as shallow rotational failures and debris flows
This study presents a proposed empirical rainfall threshold for the possible shallow landslide occurrence in burned areas to estimate annual probabilities for shallow landslide activation
It aims to contribute to the development of a novel methodology for shallow landslide forecasting and monitoring in areas that have suffered significant natural disasters, such as forest fires
Summary
Among all the recognized landslide causal factors, rainfall is widely recognized as the main landslide triggering factor, with mass movement phenomena, such as shallow rotational failures and debris flows. The critical rainfall conditions that may trigger a slope failure at a specific site are dependent on local climate, geological conditions, landslide history, the process of pore water pressure built-up, local morphology, and land-use patterns, as well as the extent of human intervention. The role of each one of the aforementioned causal factors and, most importantly, their combined effect in slope instability is not always pre-defined at the desired scale before a slope failure has occurred. Since landslide prediction is a multidisciplinary task, the examination and analysis of every causal factor at the required scale and detail can aid in a better understanding of the mechanics of landslide initiation, leading to landslide temporal prediction and forecasting
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