Century Time Scales Research Articles

The influence of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields on the latitude and temporal variations of the current density, JZ, of the global electric circuit, with relevance to weather and climate

Observations have shown small day-to-day stratiform cloud opacity and atmospheric dynamical responses to variations in the ionosphere-earth current density (JZ). We model the day-to-day and seasonal/bi-decadal changes in the area-integrals of ionospheric potential (Vi) near the magnetic poles due to solar wind electric field inputs. The overhead value of Vi, divided by the local column resistance (R) determines JZ, where the conductivity of the column is the result of ionization by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar and magnetospheric energetic particle precipitation. These vary with time, due to varying solar wind magnetic field inputs, not only on the day-to-day timescale (e.g., Forbush decreases) but also on the decadal and bi-decadal and century timescales. The GCR and energetic particle inputs vary with latitude, due to filtering of particle energies in the geomagnetic field. We compare area-integrals of the amplitude of the JZ variations due to Vi changes to those due to the R changes, for evaluating their global effectiveness in affecting cloud microphysics and weather and climate changes. The day-to-day and bi-decadal correlated weather and climate variations indicate JZ rather than other solar forcings as mainly responsible for the correlations. The decadal and longer climate responses to space weather are not large; however, understanding them could help improve predictions of future climate change due to greenhouse gases.

Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.

Uncertainty in the Past and Future Changes of Tropical Pacific SST Zonal Gradient: Internal Variability versus Model Spread

Abstract The zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the tropical Pacific is a pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. In both historical simulations and future projections, the current state-of-the-art climate models show evident spread in the changes of zonal SST gradient, but the reasons remain unknown. Here, we quantify the contributions of internal variability and model spread to the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes by analyzing 342 realizations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and several sets of large-ensemble simulations. We found that the internal variability dominates the total uncertainty at multidecadal time scales (∼31-yr trends). Although the ratio of internal uncertainty to the total uncertainty declines along with higher emission of greenhouse gases under global warming, it is still over 80% at the multidecadal time scales in the future. The Pacific decadal oscillation is identified as the key internal mode responsible for the multidecadal uncertainty. For the future projections at centurial time scales, the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes is mainly from the intermodel spread in response to external forcing, accounting for about 70% of the uncertainty based on the difference between 2070–99 and 1970–99. The model spread in the cloud–shortwave radiation–SST feedback over the tropical Pacific is important in the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes. In particular, the intensity of negative convective cloud feedback in the western Pacific dominates the spread in CMIP5 models, while the intensity of stratocumulus cloud feedback over the southeastern Pacific is the primary process influencing the uncertainty in CMIP6 models.

Interactive effects of climate-atmospheric cycling on aquatic communities and ecosystem shifts in mountain lakes of southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Recent climate warming and atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition are affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological and human systems that may be irreversible on a century time scale and have the potential to cause regime shifts in ecological systems. These changes may alter the limnological conditions with important but still unclear effects on lake ecosystems. We present changes in cladoceran with comparisons to diatom assemblages over the past ~200 years from high-resolution, well-dated sediment cores retrieved from six high mountain lakes in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Our findings suggest that warming and the exponential increase of atmospheric Nr deposition are the major drivers of ecological regime changes. Shifts in cladoceran and diatom communities in high alpine lakes began over a century ago and intensified since 1950 CE, indicating a regional-scale response to anthropogenic climate warming. Zooplankton in the forest lakes showed asynchronous trajectories, with increased Nr deposition as a significant explanatory factor. Forest lakes with higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations partially buffered the impacts of Nr deposition with little structural change, while lakes with low DOC display symptoms of resilience loss related to Nr deposition. Biological community compositional turnover in subalpine lakes has shown marked shifts, equivalent to those of low-elevation lakes strongly affected by direct human impacts. This suggests that local effects override climatic forcing and that lake basin features modified by anthropogenic activity act as basin-specific filters of common forcing. Our results indicate that snow and glacial meltwaters along with nutrient enrichment related to climate warming and atmospheric Nr deposition, represent major threats for lake ecosystems, even in remote areas. We reveal that climate and atmospheric contaminants will further impact ecological conditions and alter aquatic food webs in higher altitude biomes if climate and anthropogenic forcing continue.

Fluctuations of Qiangyong glacier in southern Tibetan Plateau over the past 500 years recorded by proglacial lacustrine sediments

The glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau have undergone profound changes due to rapid global warming, but the nature of their response to climate change at various settings remains unclear. This study focuses on the analysis (grain sizes, magnetic susceptibility, and element ratios) of a sedimentary core from a proglacial lake (Qiangyong (QY) Co) at the southern Tibetan Plateau, based upon the 210Pb and 137Cs dating, aiming to unveil the fluctuations of the QY glacier over the recent 500 years and its response to global warming. Four pre-1900s distinct glacier advance/cold intervals (C1: 1560s, C2: 1660s, C3: 1760s and C4: 1860s), a minor advance in the 1950s and an extensive glacier retreat since the 2010s were discerned. There are five glacier fluctuation cycles, each spanning approximately 100 years, correlating generally well with the Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns on a century time scale. The glacier advances align with the cold periods, whereas the retreats correspond to the warm intervals. However, coarse grain sizes indicated a marked glacier shrinkage of the QY glacier since the 1920s owing to global warming, over-shading the inherent 100-years fluctuation cyclic variations intrinsic to glaciers. The reason is that after QY glacier has significantly shrunk to higher altitude, the response of the glacier to climate change is no longer as sensitive as at the lower altitude, even under post-industrial-revolution warming. The QY glacier and even the entire Himalayan region will face the threat of glacier melting during the 21st century, but dynamic patterns of glacier retreats in higher Himalayan regions may differ from that in the low-altitude.

An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers.

Century‐scale sequences and density‐flow deltas of the late Holocene and modern Dead Sea coast, Israel

ABSTRACTLate Holocene Dead Sea rift‐margin strata reveal century‐scale sequences. Sequences are known to form at millennial timescales, but whether they can form at scales as short as centuries (seventh‐order, sensu Vail et al., 1991) was previously unconfirmed. This study maps lithofacies and sequence‐stratigraphic surfaces from a ca 35 m high outcrop of the post‐1500 ad part of the Holocene falling‐stage wedge, and adjacent subaerial environments, along the Nahal Darga of the western Dead Sea coast, using drone images. The study also produces the first maps of subaqueous delta environments from remotely operated vehicle photographs. Comparison of outcrop and remotely operated vehicle data show that delta foresets form by debris‐flow lobes accreting onto the delta face. Debris lobes increase in size with depth, have sorted cobble heads, and stack compensationally. Debris lobes dewater to form mostly erosive turbidity currents that cut channels and obstacle scours down slope. Topsets comprising fluvial, beach‐ridge and lagoonal deposits prograde over these foresets. Surfaces separating foreset and topset elements of this Gilbert‐delta system bind systems tracts and record downstep and upstep of the shoreface associated with base‐level rises and falls. These surfaces match known lake‐level changes in the Dead Sea in magnitude, timing and direction. They confirm Medieval (ca 600 to 1300 ad) and Modern (ca 1300 ad to Modern) century‐scale sequences. These microsequences form in the Dead Sea because this climate‐sensitive lake can generate metres‐scale lake‐level cycles on century timescales, and because depositional systems can, as shown here, reestablish sufficiently rapidly (≤101 years) to record century‐scale cycles with complete systems tracts. Although conditions for generating microsequences are optimal in the Dead Sea, they are not unique. These microsequences pose a challenge to sequence stratigraphy because they typically fall below seismic resolution, may geometrically resemble higher‐order composite sequences and complicate defining of anchor sequences within a sequence hierarchy.

The complex shape of the outer edge of Saturn’s B ring, as observed in Cassini occultation data

We determine the time-variable shape of the outer edge of Saturn’s B ring using the complete set of Cassini radio and stellar occultation data obtained between mid-2005 and the End-of-Mission in late 2017, considerably expanding the range and number of individual ring edge measurements used in previous analyses (Spitale and Porco, 2010; Nicholson et al., 2014a). During this 12-year interval, the dominant m=2 pattern driven by the Mimas 2:1 inner Lindblad resonance completed just over two rotations relative to Mimas, with a circulation period of 5.362 yr, while its radial amplitude varied from a minimum of 4 km to a maximum of 71 km. This circulation pattern has remained essentially unchanged over the full period of the observations. We confirm the existence of four additional perturbations with azimuthal wavenumbers m=1, 3, 4 and 5 and mean amplitudes ranging from 5 to 24 km, which we interpret as normal or edge modes, possibly triggered by viscous overstabilities in the dense B ring (Borderies et al., 1985; Longaretti, 2018). Fits of a simple WKB model to the observed pattern speeds of the edge modes with m≠1 suggest an average surface mass density in the outer 30 km of the B ring of ∼100 g cm−2, somewhat greater than the 50–70 g cm−2 inferred from density and bending waves in most other regions of this ring (Hedman and Nicholson, 2016). The m=1 mode, which extends further into the B ring, yields a more typical value of 60 g cm−2. Surprisingly, all four of these modes exhibit significant librations in their amplitudes and phases, with periods between 2.3 and 8.6 yr and amplitudes of 1.6 to 7.4 km. The origin of these librations is unknown and it is unclear if they are truly periodic and will maintain their amplitudes, periods, and phases over timescales of centuries. Their frequencies do not match those expected for interference between edge modes with varying numbers of radial nodes. Instead, they may represent periodic oscillations in the amplitudes of individual normal modes or nonlinear, non-resonant coupling between normal modes with different values of m, leading to long-term quasi-periodic variations in the mode amplitudes.

The projection of climate change impact on the fatigue damage of offshore floating photovoltaic structures

In marine environment, floating photovoltaic (FPV) plants are subjected to wind, wave and current loadings. Waves are the primary source of fatigue damage for FPVs. The climate change may accumulatively affect the wave conditions, which may result in the overestimation or underestimation of fatigue damage. This paper aims to present a projection method to evaluate the climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore FPVs in the future. Firstly, climate scenarios are selected to project the global radiative forcing level over decadal or century time scales. Secondly, global climate models are coupled to wind driven wave models to project the long-term sea states in the future. At last, fatigue assessment is conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on fatigue damage of FPVs. A case study is demonstrated in the North Sea. A global-local method of fatigue calculation is utilized to calculate the annual fatigue damage on the FPVs’ joints. The conclusions indicate that there are decreasing trends of significant wave height and annual fatigue damage in the North Sea with the high emission of greenhouse gases. The fatigue design of FPVs based on the current wave scatter diagrams may be conservative in the future. The manufacture cost of FPVs can be reduced to some extent, which is beneficial to the FPV manufacturers.

An Arctic delta reduced-complexity model and its reproduction of key geomorphological structures

Abstract. Arctic river deltas define the interface between the terrestrial Arctic and the Arctic Ocean. They are the site of sediment, nutrient, and soil organic carbon discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Arctic deltas are unique globally because they are underlain by permafrost and acted on by river and sea ice, and many are surrounded by a broad shallow ramp. Such ramps may buffer the delta from waves, but as the climate warms and permafrost thaws, the evolution of Arctic deltas will likely take a different course, with implications for both the local scale and the wider Arctic Ocean. One important way to understand and predict the evolution of Arctic deltas is through numerical models. Here we present ArcDelRCM.jl, an improved reduced-complexity model (RCM) of arctic delta evolution based on the DeltaRCM-Arctic model (Lauzon et al., 2019), which we have reconstructed in Julia language using published information. Unlike previous models, ArcDelRCM.jl is able to replicate the ramp around the delta. We have found that the delayed breakup of the so-called “bottom-fast ice” (i.e. ice that is in direct contact with the bed of the channel or the sea, also known as “bed-fast ice”) on and around the deltas is ultimately responsible for the appearance of the ramp feature in our models. However, changes made to the modelling of permafrost erosion and the protective effects of bottom-fast ice are also important contributors. Graph analyses of the delta network performed on ensemble runs show that deltas produced by ArcDelRCM.jl have more interconnected channels and contain less abandoned subnetworks. This may suggest a more even feeding of sediments to all sections of the delta shoreline, supporting ramp growth. Moreover, we showed that the morphodynamic processes during the summer months remain active enough to contribute significant sediment input to the growth and evolution of Arctic deltas and thus should not be neglected in simulations gauging the multi-year evolution of delta features. Finally, we tested a strong climate-warming scenario on the simulated deltas of ArcDelRCM.jl, with temperature, discharge, and ice conditions consistent with RCP7–8.5. We found that the ramp features degrade on the timescale of centuries and effectively disappear in under 1 millennium. Ocean processes, which are not included in these models, may further shorten the timescale. With the degradation of the ramps, any dissipative effects on wave energy they offered would also decrease. This could expose the sub-aerial parts of the deltas to increased coastal erosion, thus impacting permafrost degradation, nutrients, and carbon releases.

Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth.

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual maxima of daily temperature data from fully coupled climate models spanning the years 1850 through 2300. They enable us to investigate how extremes will change depending on the geographic location not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in terms of the timing of the changes. We find that in general, changes in extremes are stronger and more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In addition, our statistical models allow for changes in the different parameters of the fitted generalized extreme value distributions (a location, a scale and a shape parameter) to take place independently and at varying time periods. Different statistical models are presented and the Bayesian Information Criterion is used for model selection. It turns out that in most regions, changes in mean and variance take place simultaneously while the shape parameter of the distribution is predicted to stay constant. In the Arctic region, however, a different picture emerges: There, climate variability is predicted to increase rather quickly in the second half of the twenty-first century, probably due to the melting of ice, whereas changes in the mean values take longer and come into effect later.

An overview of soil moisture drought research in China: Progress and perspective

Soil moisture drought (SMD) directly affects agricultural yield and land water resources. Understanding and predicting the occurrences and evolution of SMD are of great importance for a largely agricultural country such as China. Compared to other drought categories, SMD receives less attention due to the lack of long-term soil moisture datasets. In recent decades, SMD research has been greatly developed in China, benefiting from increased ground and satellite measurements along with state-of-the-art land surface models. Here, the authors provide a brief overview of the recent progress in SMD research in China, focus on historical drought identification and its prediction, and then raise some future perspectives. Based on historical SMD studies, drought frequency has increased overall and drought duration has been prolonged since the 1950s for China as a whole, but they both show substantial temporal variations at the regional scale. Research on SMD prediction has mainly relied on the statistical relationship between soil moisture and climate variables. Few studies based on the dynamical approach in seasonal drought prediction have highlighted the importance of initial conditions and atmospheric forcing datasets. Given the importance of SMD in agricultural practice and water resource management in China, it is necessary to emphasize the following: 1) conducting research on multiple time scales (e.g., from days to the centurial time scale) and cross-regional drought identification research; and 2) developing a SMD prediction system that takes advantage of climate prediction systems, land surface models, and multisource soil moisture datasets.摘要论文回顾了中国土壤湿度干旱 (SMD) 历史重建和季节预测研究进展, 并对未来研究进行了展望. 自1950s年代以来, 全国整体干旱频率增加, 持续时间延长, 且有明显区域特征. SMD预测多是利用土壤湿度与气候变量之间的统计关系, 而少量基于动力学方法的干旱预测研究强调了初始条件和大气强迫数据对季节尺度干旱预测的重要性. 本论文提出: 1) 加强多时间尺度, 跨区域的SMD研究; 2)联合气候预测系统, 陆面模式和多源土壤湿度数据研制SMD预测系统.

Natural corrosion-induced gold nanoparticles yield purple color of Alhambra palaces decoration

Despite its fame as a chemically inert noble metal, gold (alloys) may suffer degradation under specific scenarios. Here, we show evidence of electrochemically corroded gilded tin plasterwork in the Alhambra (Granada, Spain) driving spontaneously made gold nanospheres with the optimal size (ca. 70 nm) to impart purple color at the surface. Purple gold on damaged artworks is found sparsely, and its formation is not fully explained yet. We prove that our decayed gold/silver-tin ornament is due to sequential/coexisting galvanic corrosion, differential aeration corrosion, and dealloying of nonperfectly bonded and defect-based metals. Damage is enhanced by exposure to a chloride-rich atmosphere. A white gypsum coat applied during the 19th century to overlap the unaesthetic gilding assists observation of the gold-based purple color. Our work demonstrates gold dissolution, millimetric migration, physical translocation, and deposition as secondary pure gold nanospheres over a centurial time scale under natural environmental conditions.

Impacts of Active Versus Passive Re‐Wetting on the Carbon Balance of a Previously Drained Bog

AbstractPeatland drainage depletes large carbon stocks by increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the soil. Restoration via re‐wetting could play an important role in climate change mitigation, reducing CO2 emissions and increasing C storage within peatlands. However, re‐wetting leads to a biogeochemical compromise between increased CO2 uptake, and enhanced methane (CH4) release. The extent of this compromise in re‐wetted ecosystems with differing environmental conditions is uncertain. To assess re‐wetting effects, we analyzed eddy‐covariance flux measurements from a temperate bog near Vancouver, Canada, from two sites that have undergone different restoration techniques. By the end of the 1‐year study period, the actively re‐wetted, wetter site, was a weak CO2 sink (−26.1 ± 6.1 g C‐CO2 m−2), and the passively re‐wetted, drier site, was near CO2 neutral (3.8 ± 3.1 g C‐CO2 m−2). Higher CH4 emissions at the wetter site led to a larger radiative balance on 20‐ and 100‐year time horizons, implying that the strong radiative effect of CH4 can offset CO2 sink strength on shorter to medium timeframes. However, long‐term radiative forcing (RF) modeling suggests sustained CO2 uptake by the wetter site will eventually lead to a cooling effect on the climate. Furthermore, modeling results emphasize that despite both re‐wetted peatland sites having a positive RF over century timescales, the lack of restoration would have resulted in a significantly larger RF beyond the first few decades following restoration. Results highlight the importance of actively re‐wetting disturbed peatlands to mitigate climate warming and can be used to inform management decisions.

Be‐10 Dating of Ice‐Marginal Moraines in the Khumbu Valley, Nepal, Central Himalaya, Reveals the Response of Monsoon‐Influenced Glaciers to Holocene Climate Change

AbstractThe dynamic response of large mountain glaciers to climatic forcing operates over timescales of several centuries and therefore understanding how these glaciers change requires observations of their behavior through the Holocene. We used Be‐10 exposure‐age dating and geomorphological mapping to constrain the evolution of glaciers in the Khumbu Valley in the Everest region of Nepal. Khumbu and Lobuche Glaciers are surrounded by high‐relief lateral and terminal moraines from which seven glacial stages were identified and dated to 7.4 ± 0.2, 5.0 ± 0.3, 3.9 ± 0.1, 2.8 ± 0.2, 1.3 ± 0.1, 0.9 ± 0.02, and 0.6 ± 0.16 ka. These stages correlate to each of the seven latest Holocene regional glacial stages identified across the monsoon‐influenced Himalaya, demonstrating that a coherent record of high elevation terrestrial palaeoclimate change can be extracted from dynamic mountain landscapes. The time‐constrained moraine complex represents a catchment‐wide denudation rate of 0.8–1.4 mm a−1 over the last 8 kyr. The geometry of the ablation area of Khumbu Glacier changed around 4 ka from a broad, shallow ice tongue to become narrower and thicker as restricted by the topographic barrier of the terminal moraine complex.

Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100

Antarctic Bottom Water formation, such as in the Weddell Sea, is an efficient vector for carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries. Possible changes in carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions are unquantified to date, mainly due to difficulties in simulating the relevant processes on high-latitude continental shelves. Here, we use a model setup including both ice-shelf cavities and oceanic carbon cycling and demonstrate that by 2100, deep-ocean carbon accumulation in the southern Weddell Sea is abruptly attenuated to only 40% of the 1990s rate in a high-emission scenario, while the rate in the 2050s and 2080s is still 2.5-fold and 4-fold higher, respectively, than in the 1990s. Assessing deep-ocean carbon budgets and water mass transformations, we attribute this decline to an increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, a 16% reduction in sea-ice formation, and a 79% increase in ice-shelf basal melt. Altogether, these changes lower the density and volume of newly formed bottom waters and reduce the associated carbon transport to the abyss.

Sediment dynamics at different timescales on an embayed coast in southeastern Australia

The concept of coastal sediment compartments has recently been adopted at a national scale in Australia to better understand sediment and shoreline dynamics and to underpin management of future shoreline behaviour in response to impacts of climate change. Geomorphological studies in southern NSW have provided a foundation for development of conceptual models of estuary and sandy barrier evolution. Geochronological reconstructions using radiocarbon, optically-stimulated luminescence, and other dating techniques, reviewed in this paper, demonstrate that adjacent compartments are at successive stages. Three compartments, Illawarra, Shoalhaven and Moruya, are compared, each with different catchment characteristics and different levels of human intervention. Landform change and sediment accumulation at millennial timescales enable estimates of past sediment accretion (vertical accumulation) and horizontal displacement of shorelines (particularly progradation), as a first step towards quantifying volumetric changes of morphology. Lake Illawarra is a barrier estuary at an early stage of infill, but land-use change, urbanisation, and engineering structures at the entrance have accelerated rates of sediment accumulation. The Shoalhaven River has infilled its estuary and delivers sand to the coast. It has been subject to several conspicuous anthropogenic interventions. At Moruya, ongoing supply of sand, primarily from offshore rather than from the catchment, has resulted in beach-ridge plains (strandplains) with changes in their alongshore inter-connectivity driven by differential embayment infilling. Millennial-scale geomorphology indicates landform change providing a means to determine natural trajectories of sediment transfer. However, variability is apparent at century and decadal timescales, compounded by various anthropogenic interventions. Disentangling natural and anthropogenic influences will be necessary to provide greater confidence in estimating past and present sediment budgets. Assessing sand sources and transport rates is important in relation to engineering interventions at entrances, and long-term resilience of coastal habitats. Such issues are the focus of coastal management programs, and this synthesis emphasises the relevance of a sediment budget approach to understand contemporary sediment pathways and provide an indication of future response to engineering interventions and sensitivity to climate change.

Approaches toward Atropisomerically Stable and Conformationally Pure Diarylamines.

Diarylamines possess two potentially atropisomeric C-N axes; however, there are few examples of atropisomerically stable diarylamines in the literature, as the contiguous axes can allow for low energy racemization pathways via concerted bond rotations. Herein, we describe highly atropisomerically stable diarylamines that possess barriers to racemization of 30-36 kcal/mol, corresponding to half-lives to racemization on the decade to century time scale at room temperature. Investigation of the factors that led to the high stereochemical stability suggests that increased conjugation of the aniline lone pair of electrons into a more electron-deficient aryl ring, coupled with intramolecular hydrogen-bonding, locked the corresponding axis into a defined planar conformation, disfavoring the lower energy racemization pathways.

Coastal Wetland Surface Elevation Change Is Dynamically Related to Accommodation Space and Influenced by Sedimentation and Sea-Level Rise Over Decadal Timescales

The fate of mangroves and saltmarshes under conditions of accelerating sea-level rise is dependent upon sedimentation and surface elevation gain that is sufficient to maintain substrate positions within a shifting tidal frame. This study focuses on coastal wetlands fringing Westernport Bay, a large tidal embayment of southeastern Australia where mangroves occupy lower tidal positions than saltmarshes. Estimates of vertical accretion, surface elevation change, and autocompaction derived from a 20-year record of observations were integrated with estimates of sedimentation at the decadal to century time-scale derived from 210Pb chronology to model the relationship between surface elevation gain and accommodation space at timescales relevant to management and decision-making. This model was validated against records of shoreline changes extracted from time-series aerial photography. Sedimentation and surface elevation gain vary spatially on the basis of available accommodation space and sediment supply, which are influenced by hydrodynamic conditions within the bay. Since sea-level rise increases available accommodation space, these relationships provided the means to project the outcome of accelerating sea-level rise on equilibrium accommodation space of mangroves and saltmarshes. Sea-level rise will generally deepen substrate positions within the tidal frame, creating conditions favorable for mangrove forests. Where sediment supply is high, maintenance (and some progradation) of mangrove shorelines may occur under projected low rates of sea-level rise; these conditions are limited to shorelines near sedimentary basins and where there is considerable lateral accommodation space. The same fate is not likely under a high sea-level rise scenario where shoreline retreat is projected in all settings. Given the limited accommodation space within saltmarshes at Westernport Bay, sedimentation will not be sufficient to maintain tidal positions and landward retreat will be critical for maintenance of saltmarsh biodiversity. This will require planning decisions to facilitate tidal incursions and conserve retreat pathways.

Exploring the Impacts of Shrub‐Overwash Feedbacks in Coastal Barrier Systems With an Ecological‐Morphological Model

AbstractShrubs are common – and presently expanding – across coastal barrier interiors (the land between the foredune system and back‐barrier bay), and have the potential to influence barrier morphodynamics by obstructing cross‐shore overwash flow. The ecological and geomorphological consequences of ecomorphodynamic couplings of the barrier interior, however, remain largely unexplored. In this contribution, we add an ecological module of shrub expansion and mortality to a spatially‐explicit exploratory model of barrier evolution (Barrier3D) to explore the effects of shrub‐barrier feedbacks. In our model simulations, we find that the presence of shrubs significantly alters barrier morphology and behavior. Over timescales of decades to centuries, barriers with shrubs (relative to those without) tend to be narrower, migrate landward more slowly, and have a greater proportion of subaerial volume distributed toward the ocean‐side of the barrier. Shrubs also tend to increase the likelihood of discontinuous barrier retreat, a behavior in which a barrier oscillates between periods of transgression and relative immobility, because shrubs induce prolonged periods of barrier immobility by obstructing overwash flow. However, shrubs can increase barrier vulnerability to drowning by preventing periods of transgression needed to maintain barrier elevation relative to rising sea levels. Additionally, physical barrier processes influence shrub expansion in our simulations; we find that greater dune erosion and overwash disturbance tends to slow the rate of shrub expansion across the barrier interior. Complementing recent observational studies of barrier islands in Virginia, USA, our results suggest that interior ecology can be a key component of barrier evolution on annual to centurial timescales.