An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

Abstract

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers.