A competing-rates model is presented to account for operational changes in the metastable β-Zr phase of the Zr-2.5Nb alloy used to make CANDU reactor pressure tubes and is used to predict temperature gradients at the outlet rolled joints using the decomposition of the β-Zr phase as a proxy for temperature. High temperatures decompose the β phase by enhancing the formation of small particles of ω and α phases. Fast neutron flux causes the ω and α phases to shrink. This process is assumed to depend on the total volume of the particles, because they are comparable to, or smaller than, the size of the neutron displacement cascades. The barrier energy for thermal growth was determined to be 2.43 eV, when an Arrhenius A factor of 1013/s was assumed. The cross section for (ω+α)-phase shrinkage is 24.5 barns for Zr-2.5Nb irradiated in CANDU reactors. Assuming that the shrinkage is dominated by the migration of self-interstitial point defects, a defect production efficiency of 1.4% was found.