Nuclear Deterrence Research Articles

The Short-Term Impact of Formal Controls on Subsequent Offending and Future Formal Controls in a German and UK City

The study of sanctioning effects has a rich history in deterrence and labeling theory. Most analyses have only used official data to study these effects. Yet, some more recent studies indicate that it is necessary to investigate self-reported as well as official data since it appears that sanctioning has differential effects on self-reported delinquency and formal control interventions. The current study contributes to this small body of research by using propensity score matching to analyze panel data from an ongoing English (Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Developmental Study) and a German (Crime in the modern City) study. We estimated average treatment effects of system contacts on both reoffending and subsequent contacts for juveniles living in Peterborough (ENG) and Duisburg (GER). Our findings are that (1) although official contacts have no substantial effects on the prevalence or versatility of reoffending, (2) they substantially increase the risk of a future formal contact. These results were almost identical at both sites, which may indicate a more general finding on the effects of formal control interventions.

Deterrence by Resilience: The Case of Ukraine

Applying the theory of deterrence to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, this paper addresses where deterrence failed and identifies applicable lessons. NATO’s success building and reinforce resilience between 2014 and 2022 demonstrates the capability of national resilience to deny an aggressor achieving objectives without escalation. Russia’s use of Strategic Deterrence presents the capability, credibility, and communicated nuclear threat necessary to deter NATO involvement, but Russia’s reliance on other nations within a multi-polar world increasingly diminishes the credibility of their deterrent threat. Finally, the Russo-Ukraine war demonstrates that as a defensive organization, NATO lacks credibility in extended deterrence and must act to safeguard aspiring nations.

Terrorism, insurgency economy, and human security in Borno state, Nigeria

Terrorism is designed is to create sense of public insecurity, showcase State’s inability to arrest violence, and it is severally oiled by an insurgency economy that benefits all stakeholders except the masses as seen in Borno State in the northeast of Nigeria. Terrorism could be seen jeopardizing human security extensively and pushing children outside the literacy nets, into vulnerability of recruitment and radicalization and same goes for the farming communities whose produce are extensively endangered by terror cell groups’ heinous campaign in Borno State. It was against this background that this study engaged criminal deterrence theory to examine terrorism and its implication for security of Borno State. This study decompose insecurity into food security and education security. This study employs exploratory research design with reliance on publicly available archive documents. The study relies solely on secondary data. The research is conducted by examining literature concerning terrorism and human security. Literature from non-serial publications, official reports, and conferences has been included particularly if they have been cited by other references in connection with terrorism, food security, education security and terror cell groups. Findings from this study showed that activities of terror cell groups negatively affect education security and food security. This study concluded that there is the need for governments across board to identify and dislodge the insurgency economy profiting and prolonging the insurgency. This study therefore recommends that Borno state government in conjunction with intergovernmental bodies should consolidate further the Safe School Initiatives to further ensure safety of “at risk schools”. This study also recommends that the government across board should conscientiously stem the farming and market vulnerability of the farming community and prevent looming food insecurity.

The Deterrence Effect of Police Stations on Crime in Buenos Aires and Mexico City

Police stations are not only necessary but constitute a physical representation of police force presence in neighborhoods. The deterrence effect that their location has on crime is supported by structural deterrence theory. However, few studies have empirically examined this deterrence effect, much less from a comparative perspective. Based on the cases of Buenos Aires and Mexico City, this study finds descriptive evidence of a deterrence effect of police stations and micro stations on crimes of homicide, carjacking, and vehicle theft. These findings are further supported by the examination of significantly different crime distributions around parking lots and bank locations as counterexamples to police locations.

The role of the death penalty in preventing murder in Palestinian society according to the theories of deterrence and rational choice

This study aimed to identify the role of the death penalty in preventing murders in Palestinian society according to the theories of deterrence and rational choice. Furthermore, there is an international trend to abolish the death penalty as a result of the development and globalization of human rights concepts. The death penalty also contributes to achieving special deterrence for the perpetrators of murder by ending the life of the criminal, which prevents his ability to commit another murder. The death penalty also contributes. To achieve special deterrence for all people with regard to murder crimes by the availability of the elements of the effectiveness of punishment, namely its severity, clarity, and certainty of its application. During the trial of those accused of committing murder, the study also recommended the need for the Palestinian legislator to reconsider the abolition of the death penalty in the draft Palestinian Penal Code and to maintain it due to its role in achieving public deterrence.

International Relations Ingredients in Utopia: An Analysis of Callenbach’s Ecotopia

This research paper aims to investigate the ingredients of international relations in Ernest Callenbach’s utopian novel Ecotopia (1975). First, this paper analyses the concepts of Utopia and International Relations. Then, it explains and finds out that Ecotopia, an earth-friendly place that has seceded from the U.S. for about two decades because of its involvement in nature degradation activities, has cut off its relations with the U.S., but Ecotopia is not isolated from the rest of the world. The U.S. sends William Weston, a top international affairs reporter, and the protagonist, to make eroded diplomatic relations with Ecotopia amicable. But he finds Ecotopia as a live-worth place and decides to live there permanently. Ecotopia has established relations with other nations politically, economically as well as culturally. Except with the U.S., Ecotopia is involved in importing iron from other nations and exporting cultural artifacts to them. Ecotopian Government has applied a deterrence policy with the U.S., so it has run nuclear fission plants though such projects are against the ethics of a utopian nation. Ecotopians blame America for being an imperialist nation and waging wars against different nations. They believe that big nations must secede further into small nations so that they can manage their natural resources making them earth-friendly. This research concludes that a utopian work also includes different ingredients of international relations.

INDIA'S CYBER WARFARE CAPABILITIES: REPERCUSSIONS FOR PAKISTAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY

Cyber warfare refers to a state's ability to penetrate another state's digital systems to cause disruption. Cyber warfare has emerged as the fifth operational warfighting domain. India has been strengthening its cyber warfare capabilities for a long time, which can seriously affect Pakistan. Considering the theoretical constructs of Barry Buzan and Ole Waever regarding the broader concept of security, this paper aims to highlight the possible threats and security challenges that India's cyberspace can pose to Pakistan's national security. The paper argues that India has acquired a robust cyberspace that can potentially cause financial damage, political instability, societal unrest, and radicalisation in Pakistan's society. Furthermore, strong cyberspace can also challenge nuclear deterrence between the two neighbours, thus threatening military security. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding what Pakistan can do to mitigate this growing cyber threat.
 
 
 Bibliography Entry
 Ashraf, Nageen and Dr. Saima Ashraf Kayani (2023) “India's Cyber Warfare Capabilities: Repercussions for Pakistan's National Security” NDU Journal. 37: 34-45.

CONSTRUING THE NUCLEAR THREAT: The Relevance of Deterrence Theory in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was heating up. Russian military attacks succeeded in taking control of Zaporizhzhia, the major Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. This mastery drew world criticism, especially from the West with its NATO, and was responded to by Russia by threatening to use nuclear weapons if another country intervened in the conflict. Threat imposed by Russia is relevant to be assessed by employing the Deterrence Theory. The aim of this study is to analyze and describe the relevance of the Deterrence Theory amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. More specifically, this study is to conceive the possibility of the outbreak of nuclear war amidst the Russian threat. Qualitative methods are used in this research. The interpretation of the data becomes the basis for the analysis that comes from a series of interviews and based on literature studies. Collection of previous reference journals, books, and news from internet sources, all of which are used as secondary data. Conclusion of this study, bearing in mind mass destruction possibly caused by nuclear war, the outbreak of nuclear war between Russia and the NATO alliance is unlikely. The threats and bluffs paid off, at least for a time.

Antecedents of Compliance Intention and Its Impact on Waste Separation Behavior: Based on Rational Choice Theory and Deterrence Theory

With the rapid growth of the urban population, the development of production and consumption, and improved living standards, waste generation has increased over time. The first positive step to solve the problem of household waste is waste separation behavior. Studying the determinants that prompt individuals to comply with waste separation policy (WSP) is worthwhile. The author aims to offer an integrated view of individuals' compliance with waste separation policy based on rational choice and deterrence theories. Survey data collected from 306 households in South Korea are used to test the research model using partial least squares analysis. The study shows that WSP compliance intention is motivated by the perceived benefit and perceived effectiveness of WSP. Furthermore, the results show that perceived deterrent severity and perceived deterrent certainty positively influence WSP compliance intention. The implications for theory and policymakers are discussed to facilitate waste separation behavior.

Conceptualising Deterrence: An Escalating Problem

This paper briefly explores the origins and defining features of deterrence theory and examines two fundamental weaknesses associated with the contemporary Western conception of deterrence. Perceiving the role of deterrence as maintaining the status quo and labelling certain military capabilities as constituting ‘a deterrent’ are limiting and can provoke unintended consequences. Deterrence and escalation are inherently intertwined and any single attempt to deter can result in de-escalation or escalation. A new conceptual framework is proposed, which conceives deterrence as a strategic way to achieve a broad spectrum of political ends including de-escalation and escalation, through positive and negative means.

Variability in punishment, risk preferences and crime deterrence

This work studies for the first time the effect on crime deterrence of variability in punishment under different assumptions on criminals risk preferences. We show that when criminals are risk averse, greater variability in punishment reduces the incentive to commit crimes, and that the opposite holds in the case of risk loving. The linkages between certainty of punishment, initial wealth and the incentive to commit crimes are also analyzed. We then analyze the effects of greater variability in punishment on deterrence policies founded on punishment severity, showing that this effect is positive if criminals are prudent and negative if they are imprudent. Lastly, we analyze for the first time variability in punishment as an instrument of deterrence policy. This analysis determines the optimal level of variability in the two cases of homogeneity and heterogeneity in risk preference.

Defensive lawfare and deterrence: Analysis of Latvia’s approach to legal bases in the context of hybrid warfare (2014-2022)

Following the ‘hybrid form’ of Russian aggression in Ukraine that emerged in 2014, the period after February 24th, 2022 is referred to as the ‘new reality’. Hence, the question that needs to be addressed is how to deter and prevent Russian aggression of this kind. The national legal framework against the aggressor is a part of the deterrence policy and can be construed as defensive lawfare. Focusing on Latvia, the aim of the paper is to analyse defensive lawfare and deterrence in the context of hybrid warfare. The following research question has been identified: What is Latvia’s approach to establishing defensive lawfare in terms of hybrid warfare? For the empirical analysis, the chronological framework has been set from 2014 to 2022. To complete the empirical analysis of the present paper, both qualitative and quantitative research has been implemented comprising document analysis and semi-structured interviews, as well as content analysis, respectively. The improvement of a regulatory base and the development of deterrence, whilst using regulatory acts, is an element of deterrence and a way to act legally. The law can be used as a weapon. Lawfare, a concept with three definitions, has two forms: defensive a nd offensive. Latvia’s legal base includes a regulation to overcome hybrid threats and to implement a broad-spectrum of defence measures. Latvia’s regulatory framework is designed for defence purposes, whilst also being a way of promoting deterrence. Decision makers must be able to manoeuvre with the powers assigned to them.

Self-defence against Fulani herders’ aggression: a demand for licenced firearms in Plateau state, Nigeria

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the clamour by the people of Plateau State, Nigeria, for more licences to bear firearms for self-defence because of the continuous failure of the Nigerian State to defend them against the Fulani herders’ aggression. More guns less crime deterrence theory served as the framework of analysis, which posits that because criminals are rational beings, they will choose not to attack when they know many people have legitimate firearms.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from four purposefully selected local government areas of the state. This study’s sample size was 400. Therefore, 400 copies of the Google Forms questionnaire were administered. In addition, seven key informant interviews and nine focus group discussions were also conducted.FindingsThis research results showed the following: while self-defence and issuance of more licenses were supported by 84.8% and 85.0% of respondents, respectively, they also argued that the insurgency would likely end if more people carried legally acquired firearms. Again, the study showed a positive correlation between the government’s failure in security and the demand for self-defence exercises against the Fulani herdsmen’s insurgency, this study recommends more licensed firearms for the people of Plateau State.Originality/valueThis study recommends more licenced firearms for the people of Plateau State.

Correction to “Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure”

Pacific FocusEarly View ErratumFree Access Correction to “Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure” This article corrects the following: Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure Yang Gyu Kim, Tyler Bowen, Lana Shehadeh, Volume 37Issue 3Pacific Focus pages: 377-407 First Published online: December 19, 2022 First published: 10 April 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12227AboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL In the article by Kim et al. (2022), the following error was published on page 373, in the table of contents and in the contributor list: The affiliation for the last author, Lana Shehadeh, is listed as Arab American University of Palestine. This is incorrect. It should be Arab American University. Reference Kim, Y.G., T. Bowen, L. Shehadeh, “Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure,” Pacific Focus, 37 (2022), pp. 377– 407. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12219. Early ViewOnline Version of Record before inclusion in an issue ReferencesRelatedInformation

Do ride-hailing drivers' psychological behaviors influence operational performance?

PurposeThe proliferation of ride-hailing businesses brings significant considerations for improving the driver's operational performance. Informed by the literature on sharing economy, general deterrence theory and protection motivation theory this research investigates the behavioral factors impacting ride-hailing drivers' operational performance.Design/methodology/approachThe authors empirically test the antecedents impacting a ride-hailing driver's operational performance using an online survey dataset comprising 513 ride-hailing drivers working for Uber and Lyft in the United States.FindingsRide-hailing drivers' intention to comply with the ride-hailing company guidelines results in better operational performance for the driver. Moreover, drivers believe that ride-hailing companies have effective penalties to deter drivers from violating company guidelines. However, drivers also believe that the chances of being caught while ignoring the company guidelines are low.Practical implicationsThe results of this research support the decision-making processes of ride-hailing company managers and offer insights on how managers can enhance the operational performance of their drivers.Originality/valueThis study provides unique contributions to emerging research at the intersection of peer-to-peer asset sharing, behavioral studies and technology management. This research is one of the first to explore the role of behavioral factors such as coping mechanisms on the operational performance of sharing economy workers.

Nuclear Deterrence and Non-proliferation Regime: A Critical Analysis

This research paper critically examines the intricate relationship between nuclear deterrence and the non-proliferation regime, focusing on India and Pakistan as a case study. It analyzes the role of the non-proliferation regime in preventing nuclear weapons proliferation and evaluates the motivations for states to acquire such arms. The paper also explores the concept of nuclear deterrence as a strategy for preventing aggression, discussing its effectiveness and limitations in maintaining global security. It delves into how possessing nuclear weapons can impact non-proliferation efforts, both strengthening and weakening them.Through the India-Pakistan case study, the research assesses the dynamics of nuclear deterrence in their bilateral relations and its influence on regional stability. The study evaluates the non-proliferation regime's effectiveness in managing their nuclear capabilities and minimizing conflict risk. These insights are valuable for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners working toward nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and global peace.

Kargil war as Security Deterioration of South Asia

India and Pakistan are two high risks running in this competitive strategy. Since India and Pakistan appeared as independent States on the World map, South Asian security has been derailing in an unstable and vast shape. Kargil pushes the region towards unease and insecurity. Although India called it a proxy War, which was controlled by Pakistan forces. In Kargil both states showed their presence of their nuclear weapons and exchange threats. Both states were in Competition for winning through their perception of nuclear weapons.There were basically two reasons of Pakistan to fight this particular war (i) Secure Territory (ii) Internationalize the Kashmir issue. Due to the effort of Pakistan Kashmir issue was internationalised in front of world but unfortunately Pakistan was labelled as sponsor of terrorism as well as threats about misuse of its nuclear weapons increased in South Asian region. Deterrence Theory will be used in article. Which involves using military threats/weapons as a mean to deter international crisis. In this research both analytical and descriptive methods will be used. Descriptive analytics is the process of using current and historical data to identify trends and relationships so this is the best suited method to conduct this research.

Nuclear Deterrence and A Prospective Assessment of the Russian-Ukrainian War

Nuclear weapons, which people first became acquainted with in history with the attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States of America towards the end of the Second World War, have been a deterrent tool, especially with this painful experience in which 220,000 civilians lost their lives, and have been used for this purpose when needed by those countries who possess them. Nuclear deterrence was most intensely used as a deterrent tool, especially during the Cold War and between the two great superpowers of the time, the Soviet Union and the United States.
 With the developments after Russia intervened in Ukraine in February 2022 and the wide support packages provided by Western countries to Ukraine, the President Vladimir Putin stated that the use of nuclear weapons is now among the options. In this study, firstly, concepts such as nuclear strategy, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, and nuclear deterrence will be discussed in the context of the conceptual framework; by following that, a prospective evaluation of the Russia-Ukraine war will be made in the context of nuclear deterrence.

Strategic Stability: Dynamics and Factors of Transformation

The paper provides a comparative analysis study of the dynamics and mechanisms of the strategic stability transformation both during the Cold War and at present. Drawing on the analysis of the factors affecting strategic stability in different time periods, the author outlines the priorities of this transformation. Its basic principles are confined to the stability of nuclear deterrence in any realistic scenarios and do not provide for practical action. Hence, one should distinguish them from applied solutions for calculating military-strategic balances and elaboration of arms control agreements. The latter depend on the current strategic landscape subject to constant, sometimes drastic change, as both the Cold War history and the recent developments testify. The choice of particular type of representation of strategic stability is determined by the nature of the most dangerous ongoing trends, and relies on a set of three basic groups of factors (political-military, military-technical, and military-strategic) existing at a given time. This necessitates constant revaluation of these factors and development of new practical measures to build up nuclear deterrence.The paper assesses the current set of relevant factors affecting stability of nuclear deterrence, and then compares it with the commonly used model of strategic stability based on the logic of arms control negotiations of the late 1980s. The author highlights the limitations of the latter model applicability to the present strategic landscape, and outlines the key factors that erode the current understanding of strategic stability (as it was stipulated in the 1990 U.S.–Soviet Joint Statement). In particular the author emphasizes the increasing complexity of international landscape as compared to the Cold War period: new and unanticipated challenges have affected all three above-mentioned groups of factors. The paper ends up with the analysis of the possible developments in the field of arms control that could alleviate tensions and increase strategic stability.

China's Perspective on North Korean Nuclear Policies in The Context of Deterrence Theory

Son 30 yılda, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer sorunu, Kuzeydoğu Asya'daki güvenlik, kalkınma ve istikrara yönelik en önemli ve doğrudan tehditlerden birini oluşturmuştur. Üçlü ve altılı görüşmeler, yaptırımlar, diplomatik çabalar ve daha yakın tarihli Singapur ve Hanoi Zirveleri dahil olmak üzere uluslararası toplumun çabaları, şimdiye kadar herhangi somut bir sonuç üretememiştir. Kuzey Kore'nin temel amacı nükleer programını geliştirmek ve açıkça nükleer silah üretmek olmuştur. Uluslararası toplum, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'ye baskı yapma ve nükleer sorunu kolayca çözme yeteneğine aşırı derecede güvenmiştir. Çin, Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer programının geliştirilmesinden vazgeçirmeye çalışırken, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer bir güç olmasına da yardımcı olmuştur. Bu makale, Çin'in caydırıcılık stratejisinin bir müttefik olarak Kuzey Kore üzerinde güvenilir olup olmadığını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çin caydırıcılık stratejisi kapsamında birinci ve ikinci vuruşları gerçekleştirmeme ilkesine bağlı kalmaktadır. Rakipleri bu garantiyi müttefiklerine sağlarken, Çin Kuzey Kore'ye herhangi bir nükleer garanti sunmamıştır. ABD-Çin rekabeti bağlamında Çin, Tayvan, Güney Kore ve Güney Çin Denizi'ndeki çıkarlarından endişe duymaktadır. Çin için Kuzey Kore nükleer krizi hiçbir zaman birinci öncelik olmamıştır. İki ülke arasındaki ittifak ilişkisindeki güven eksikliği, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer silahlardan arındırma sürecini tamamlamaya ikna etmesini imkânsız hale getirmiştir. Bu nedenle, Çin'in caydırıcı gücü sonuçsuz kalmıştır. Bu güven eksikliği, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer programını geliştirme motivasyonunu daha net olarak açıklamaktadır.