The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System Research Articles

Research of the Impact of Hydrogen Metallurgy Technology on the Reduction of the Chinese Steel Industry’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The steel industry, which relies heavily on primary energy, is one of the industries with the highest CO2 emissions in China. It is urgent for the industry to identify ways to embark on the path to “green steel”. Hydrogen metallurgy technology uses hydrogen as a reducing agent, and its use is an important way to reduce CO2 emissions from long-term steelmaking and ensure the green and sustainable development of the steel industry. Previous research has demonstrated the feasibility and emission reduction effects of hydrogen metallurgy technology; however, further research is needed to dynamically analyze the overall impact of the large-scale development of hydrogen metallurgy technology on future CO2 emissions from the steel industry. This article selects the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model as its analysis model, constructs a China steel industry hydrogen metallurgy model (TIMES-CSHM), and analyzes the resulting impact of hydrogen metallurgy technology on CO2 emissions. The results indicate that in the business-as-usual scenario (BAU scenario), applying hydrogen metallurgy technology in the period from 2020 to 2050 is expected to reduce emissions by 203 million tons, and make an average 39.85% contribution to reducing the steel industry’s CO2 emissions. In the carbon emission reduction scenario, applying hydrogen metallurgy technology in the period from 2020 to 2050 is expected to reduce emissions by 353 million tons, contributing an average of 41.32% to steel industry CO2 reduction. This study provides an assessment of how hydrogen metallurgy can reduce CO2 emissions in the steel industry, and also provides a reference for the development of hydrogen metallurgy technology.

The future of biofuels in the United States transportation sector

There is a growing need to produce renewable liquid fuels for heavy duty transportation and aviation, and cellulosic biomass is a promising source for those fuels. However, the many conversion options for biomass to fuels have not been systematically studied in the context of the USA transportation sector. Accordingly, we improve the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model to include a rich suite of potential biofuel conversion pathways. We further add region-specific CO2 transportation and injection costs and current USA tax credits to study the potential of biofuels under realistic cost scenarios. We show that while under current credits, biofuels play a role only in some regions of the USA, a range of scenarios such as increased tax credits, increased biomass availability, or increased oil price could all lead to biofuels playing a significant role.

The effects of technological developments in transportation vehicles on air pollution mitigation of metropolitan cities: A case study of Istanbul

This study investigates the impact of transportation vehicles on air pollution emissions in Istanbul, a metropolitan city in Türkiye. The TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) Model has been used to determine the current level of air pollutants coming from the transportation sector, make future estimates, and assess the impact of various scenarios on air pollution emissions. Air pollutants such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, particulate matter, and non-methane volatile organic compounds are included in the model.The amount of air pollution emissions discussed in this research were 74, 68, 13, 5, and 2 kt for NOx, CO, VOC, SO2, and PM, respectively, in the base year of 2016. In 2055, these emissions have shifted to 190, 98, 26, 8, and 5 kt, respectively. This means that emissions are predicted to increase between 1.4 and 2.6 times. According to model results, individual measures could decrease potential air pollution emissions for 2055 by up to 13 %. When all of the actions done within the pollutants of the study are combined, the total amount of emissions has decreased by 30.2 %, 24.3 %, 18.8 %, 5.3 % and 21.4 % for NOx, CO, VOC, SO2, and PM, respectively. This research emphasizes how critical it is to address metropolitan areas' transportation-related air pollution. The number of such studies dealing with air pollution parameters using the TIMES Model is very few, and it is expected that this study will create important outputs for similar studies.

Technological assessment of greenhouse gas reduction potential of power generation in Türkiye

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century and transformation of power generation infrastructure is essential to achieve the long-term temperature goals set by the Paris Agreement, given that it accounts approximately 34% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye, as a developing country, has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by up to 41% from the business-as-usual level by 2030. To explore potential pathways for the mitigation of emissions from power generation in Türkiye, a model was developed using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modelling framework within this study. This model utilized national datasets to conduct a comprehensive assessment of current infrastructure of power generation in Türkiye, and emission trends were estimated under various scenarios. TIMES model allowed for an analysis of the energy, economy, and environment relationships based on technological development. Results were obtained for the reference scenario and three alternative scenarios for the period of 2020–2045. A mitigation potential of 18–50% from business as usual levels was obtained across scenarios. Total system costs were increased around 4%–24% as compared with reference scenario, which resulted in higher unit cost for electricity production.

Distributed Energy as a Megatrend of Audit of Investment Processes of the Energy Complex

The global trend is constantly increasing investments in strategic sectors of the economy, for example the electric power industry, which, in many countries, is becoming diversified and dispersed due to the multitude of entities investing in energy production and renewable resources, which leads to an increase in the heterogeneity of investment decisions. There is an urgent need to control the movement of investments, budget funds, as well as their development in the process of implementing investment programs of energy companies. The control of the movement of investments is the most promising direction of studying the subject of finance and audit. The increasing volume of public and private targeted investments in the energy sector and the lack of control over the effectiveness of investment projects (since each program contains several thousand lists of projects) necessitated the introduction of additional regulation of budget spending. The development of a mathematical apparatus for such regulation led to the creation in the Russian Federation of an institute of an independent public technological and price audit (TPA). The TPA is seen as a mechanism to ensure an effective project evaluation and selection process. This article describes methodological improvements using power system optimization models. The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) was developed as part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program of the IEA-ETSAP, an international community that uses long-term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyzes. This approach includes two different but complementary systematic approaches to energy modeling: an engineering approach and an economic approach. The same approach is used when conducting a TSA, when an investment object is evaluated as a set of technological and price parameters. The article considers a model of resource allocation in the energy sector and a mechanism for using TPA for investment projects with state participation in a natural monopoly. An approach to the financial and long-term distribution of investments of electric power companies based on the search for a balance of interests of the supplier and consumer and available energy sources is proposed. A model has been developed to find the optimal plan of technical solutions, taking into account the balance of the possibilities of the electric power industry and the needs of the economy. The relevance of the article is due to the requirements of investment efficiency, since the prevailing share in the costs is occupied by the costs of equipment and the construction of power plants.

Modelling least-cost technology pathways to decarbonise the New South Wales energy system by 2050

Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, consistent with the international Paris Agreement on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030–2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.

Medium-term assessment of cross border trading potential of Nepal's renewable energy using TIMES energy system optimization platform

Hydropower holds the largest renewable share in global electricity supply and will remain as a key technology for greenhouse gas mitigation in future. Rapid deployment of hydropower projects without storage has created the risks of hydropower generation far exceeding electricity demand in coming years in Nepal. This paper attempts to assess the volume of such surplus energy by proposing the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) based framework suitable to estimate excess energy in renewable predominated system with detailed representation of hydropower. This study presents surplus renewable generation as Cross Border Electricity Trade (CBET) potential to show how instrumental CBET can be to avoid renewable energy curtailment with case study of Nepal. The results suggest Nepal not only can avoid 99.4 TWH of hydropower curtailment and financial loss of 500 billion Nepalese Rupees but also can reduce 81.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in India by 2030 using CBET policy instrument, however, timely construction of planned cross-border transmission lines is essential to reap the full benefits.

Strategic Planning for Carbon Capture and Storage Implementation in the Electricity Sector of Greece: A TIMES Based Analysis

This paper presents a roadmap performed in 2010 as part of a European project for the modelling of carbon capture and storage technology, and various scenarios with different taxations and permit prices for the CO2 emissions considering the Greek national plans, then the gradual decommissioning of various lignite or other units of electricity power plants. In addition, this study presents a first check, 10 years after its writing, of the current situation of the Greek energy system, regarding the correspondence of the roadmap designed in 2010 to what has been finally executed during this period, including the possibility of other energy sources complimenting or substituting the national strategic energy plans. For this purpose, the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) was employed to model the Greek energy system and evaluate its development over time, until 2040, by analyzing three different scenarios with respect to taxation and permit prices for carbon emissions. The results obtained show that, if this study had been considered and executed by the different stakeholders during that period, then the implementation of CCS in the new licensed power plants from 2010 and onwards could reduce the use of lignite and imported hard coal power production in a much smoother and beneficial way in the next years, and until the present, without compromising any major power plants. This implementation would also make the transition to a lignite free economy in Greece much faster and better, while complimenting the EU regulations and also enhancing the possible greater use of alternative energy sources in the green energy mixture.

Interpretable Forecasting of Energy Demand in the Residential Sector

Energy demand forecasting is practiced in several time frames; different explanatory variables are used in each case to serve different decision support mandates. For example, in the short, daily, term building level, forecasting may serve as a performance baseline. On the other end, we have long-term, policy-oriented forecasting exercises. TIMES (an acronym for The Integrated Markal Efom System) allows us to model supply and anticipated technology shifts over a long-term horizon, often extending as far away in time as 2100. Between these two time frames, we also have a mid-term forecasting time frame, that of a few years ahead. Investigations here are aimed at policy support, although in a more mid-term horizon, we address issues such as investment planning and pricing. In this paper, we develop and evaluate statistical and neural network approaches for this mid-term forecasting of final energy and electricity for the residential sector in six EU countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Portugal and Greece). Various possible approaches to model the explanatory variables used are presented, discussed, and assessed as to their suitability. Our end goal extends beyond model accuracy; we also include interpretability and counterfactual concepts and analysis, aiming at the development of a modelling approach that can provide decision support for strategies aimed at influencing energy demand.

The role of current and emerging technologies in meeting Japan’s mid- to long-term carbon reduction goals

Using Japan as a proxy for a developed nation, we investigated the role of existing and nascent technologies in curbing carbon emissions. We simulated possible pathways to meeting 2030 and 2050 emission targets within the Japanese electricity supply sector using a single-region model in The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES). Critically, our simulations incorporate novel technologies like hydrogen electrolysers, carbon capture, photochemical water splitting, and emerging photovoltaic cells, assess long-term impacts up to the year 2100, and include life-cycle emissions and learning curves for parameters such as investment cost, efficiency, and emission coefficients. Results indicate that a hybrid approach, using nuclear power and hydrogen from renewable energy-based electrolysis, is cost-effective and provides long-term emission reduction along with energy security. Nuclear, wind, solar, and hydrogen from renewables emerge as key emission reduction technologies, while natural gas with carbon capture plays a minor role in achieving emission reduction targets.

Pathways to a more efficient and cleaner energy system in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: A system-based simulation during 2015-2035

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most dynamic economic urban agglomerations in China, which has a big proportion of the nation's total energy demand. However, there has not been a systemic simulation into the performance of the GBA's energy system in terms of supply and demand, intensity and security during the on-going energy transition. In this study, we develop GBA-specific TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), a system-based energy technology model to assess the effectiveness of existing policies on energy system optimization during 2015-2035. We simulate future energy consumption, efficiency, and security of GBA based on the expected changes of energy structure and other socioeconomic factors. Our results show that the energy consumption of the Pearl River Delta and Macao is expected to slowly grow until 2035, while that of Hong Kong would peak around 2025. The coal supply in GBA would decrease by half in 2035 compared to 2015, and the proportion of non-fossil energies would increase to 44%-45% in 2035 to meet the energy demand. Energy intensities of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong and Macao are likely to be reduced by 54%, 47%, and 31% by 2035 compared with 2015, respectively. Energy self-sufficiency rate in the GBA would increase from 10% in 2015 to 20-25% in 2035, which could benefit regional energy security. These simulation results show the explicit and long-term dynamics of energy system performances of GBA that are important for taking a more efficient and cleaner approach to energy transition.

Carbon Neutrality Pathways Effects on Air Pollutant Emissions: The Portuguese Case

Air pollution and climate change are closely interlinked, once both share common emission sources, which mainly arise from fuel combustion and industrial processes. Climate mitigation actions bring co-benefits on air quality and human health. However, specific solutions can provide negative trade-offs for one side. The Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap was developed to assess conceivable cost-effective pathways to achieve zero net carbon emissions by 2050. Assessing its impacts, on air pollutant emissions, is the main focus of the present work. The bottom-up linear optimization energy system the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model was selected as a modeling tool for the decarbonization scenarios assessment. The estimation of air pollutant emissions was performed exogenously to the TIMES model. Results show that reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is possible, and technologically feasible, in Portugal, by 2050. The crucial and most cost-effective vector for decarbonizing the national economy is the end-use energy consumption electrification, renewable based, across all end-use sectors. Decarbonization efforts were found to have strong co-benefits for reducing air pollutant emissions in Portugal. Transport and power generation are the sectors with the greatest potential to reduce GHG emissions, providing likewise the most significant reductions of air pollutant emissions. Despite the overall positive effects, there are antagonistic effects, such as the use of biomass, mainly in industry and residential sectors, which translates into increases in particulate matter emissions. This is relevant for medium term projections, since results show that, by 2030, PM2.5 emissions are unlikely to meet the emission reduction commitments set at the European level, if no additional control measures are considered.

Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions

The present study investigates long-term energy consumption and CO2 emission pathways of the Swiss cement industry, including pathways towards net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Cement production accounts for 8% (12.8 PJ) of the final energy consumption and 36% (2.5 Mt) of the CO2 emissions in the Swiss industrial sector in 2015. Using a techno-economic bottom-up optimization model based on the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modeling framework, this study applies an advanced modeling technique for the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) that expands the modeling of energy flows with additional material and product flow modeling. This allows a more detailed technology representation as well as to account for process related emissions in the cement sector. This modeling framework is applied for a scenario analysis focusing on energy efficiency as well as decarbonization, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of energy technology development and identifies policy strategies for the realization of a decarbonized cement industry. The results show that, in accordance with current trends, future cement production reduces its specific energy consumption from 3.0 GJ/tcement in 2015 to 2.3 GJ/tcement in 2050. Simultaneously, cement production decreases its CO2 emission intensity from 579 kgCO2/tcement in 2015 to 466 kgCO2/tcement in 2050 due to the decreasing average clinker content in cement and energy efficiency improvements. Even without major climate policy intervention in the future, it is economically beneficial to replace and improve the existing equipment with more energy efficient technologies. However, our results show that for a drastic reduction of the CO2 emissions in order to comply with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the cement sectors relies on CO2 capture because of the process related emissions. The results show that a minimum CO2 tax of 70 EUR/tCO2 is required for the CO2 capture technologies to become economically competitive.

Low-carbon transformation of the regional electric power supply structure in China: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model with resource endowment constraints

The electric power industry is the main source of carbon emissions in China. The structural transformation of electric power supply plays a key role in the realization of low-carbon development in China. However, the low-carbon transformation of the electric power structure has to consider the differences in resource endowment and technical conditions among regions. To investigate the potential evolution of the regional electric power supply structure, we collect data of provincial resource endowment and technical differences and introduce them into the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model of China's regional electric power sector. In this model, different scenarios for carbon emission reduction in the electric power industry are set, and the optimal regional electric power supply structures under each constraint of carbon emissions are calculated. The results show that the electric power supply structure will change in various regions when the carbon emission reduction target increases from 5% (LC1 scenario) to 15% (LC3 scenario). In 2030, the proportion of thermal power in all regions will decline, especially in western China, where the proportion will decline by 8.47%. However, thermal power will still play a leading role in central China and eastern China, with the proportion more than 50%. Meanwhile, the proportion of the power generation of renewable energy in all regions will increase rapidly in the LC3 scenario, especially in western China, where the proportion will account for 60.72% in 2030, while the proportion will account for 27.26% in eastern China in 2030. Wind power will play an important role in the power supply system in the LC3 scenario, and the proportion of wind power in all regions will exceed that of solar power in 2030, especially in northeast China, where the highest proportion of wind power will come to 30.37%.

Modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector in Istanbul by 2050

Climate change has become popular in recent years. To discuss and reduce the harmful effects on environment, important actions are taken in international negotiations. Paris Agreement, entered into force in November 2016, aims to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and maintain the global average temperature raising below 2°C, countries that have ratified the agreement should declare their contribution to reducing GHG emissions. one of the most important components contributing to global GHG emissions is the transportation sector. The GHG emission from the transportation sector is 84.7 Mton CO2eq. which accounts for 16% of the total GHG emissions throughout Turkey in 2017. Road transportation with a rate of 93%, corresponds to the biggest share of GHG emissions from the transportation sector. In the current study, GHG emissions were modelled from 2016 to 2050, in order to assess the impacts of the transportation sector on climate change in Istanbul, which is the most populous city and has the highest number of vehicles in Turkey. Istanbul has a major importance for Turkey, from the point of its energy consumption and climate-related emissions. For this purpose, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) as a technology-rich and economic model was used. The results of the study were obtained for the reference scenario, which assumes that the existing plans and policies will continue until 2050. Furthermore, three alternative scenarios were studied which are related to electric rail transportation (Scenario 1), electric and hybrid cars (Scenario 2) and limited CO2 emissions (Scenario 3). Results show that the total GHG reduction is 1.1% Scenario 1, 11% for Scenario 2 and 39% for Scenario 3 in 2050. In the third scenario where the emission limitation was introduced to the model, there was a trend towards vehicles with higher amounts of LPG and CNG to keep the emission at the desired level, and fuel consumption was approximately 5.5% higher than the reference scenario in 2050.

An Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Path of China’s Power Industry

In China, as the major source of energy consumption and air pollutant emissions, the power industry is not only the principal force that bears the responsibility of national emission reduction targets but also a breakthrough that reflects the effectiveness of emission reduction. In this study, based on the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model and scenario analysis method, a bottom-up energy system optimization model for the power industry was established, and four scenarios with different constraints were set up to predict and analyze the power demand and the energy consumption structure. Emission characteristics, emission reduction characteristics, and emission reduction cost of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOX), particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), and mercury (Hg) were quantitatively studied. Finally, for the environmentally friendly development and optimal adjustment of power production systems in China, the control path in the power industry that is conducive to the emission reduction of air pollutants was obtained, which is of great significance for the ultimate realization of climate friendliness. The results demonstrate that from 2020 to 2050, the power demand of the terminal departments will increase, with the composition significantly changed. The focus of power demand will change from industry to the service industry gradually. If no additional targeted emission reduction or adjustment policies are added in the power industry, the primary energy and air pollutant emissions will increase significantly, putting great pressure on resources and the environment. For the emission reduction of air pollutants, the promotion effect of emission reduction measures, such as the implementation and promotion of non-fossil fuels, is restricted. The power industry can introduce and maximize the best available technologies while optimizing the structure of energy consumption to realize efficient emission reduction of air pollutants and energy conservation. In 2030, emissions will reach peak values with reasonable emission reduction cost. This has the additional effect of abating energy consumption and preventing deterioration of the ecological environment, which is of profound significance for the ultimate realization of climate friendliness.

Impacts of deploying co-electrolysis of CO2 and H2O in the power generation sector: A case study for South Korea

This work analyzes the impacts of deploying a Power-to-Gas technology in the power generation sector in South Korea by 2050. The Power-to-Gas technology of interest is the low-temperature co-electrolysis of CO2 and H2O, which is an emerging technology for electrochemically converting them to syngas. Particularly, excess electricity available from intermittent renewable energy resources is intended to be the main energy source for the co-electrolysis. A conceptual design of the co-electrolysis process is carried out to calculate its performance data including mass balances, energy demand, and capital investment. Based on them, a temporal energy system model is developed using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator. The conclusion is that deploying the co-electrolysis process in the Korean power generation sector can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also save the overall system cost when the syngas production cost is lower than the purchasing cost of liquid natural gas. The beneficial impacts are limited by the amount of available excess electricity and the co-firing ratio limit in the gas-fired power plants. Finally, the overpotential and current density, as uncertain parameters of the co-electrolysis process, are found to affect the syngas production cost most strongly.

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2030 DPRK’s GHGs mitigation targets on DPRK’s energy system

The DPRK ratified the Paris Agreement on 1st August 2016 and fully committed to achieving goals for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) which was submitted on 3rd October 2016. The DPRK’s INDC includes a mitigation and an adaptation component. In the mitigation component, as unconditional contribution, DPRK intends to achieve with domestic resources the reduction of GHG emissions by 8% by 2030 as compared to Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Moreover, the conditional contributions are measures that could be implemented if additional international financial support, technology transfer and capacity building are received. The national contribution could be increased up to 40% with international support. This paper focuses on these mitigation targets for DPRK by an interesting case study of GHG emissions for a 12 year period from 1990 to 2002. We proposed the DPRK’s GHGs mitigation model by analyzing the Irish TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System) energy systems modelling tool, and proved the technical availability of CO2-8 scenario delivering an 8% emissions reduction target by 2030. We then compared the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy.

The role of modal shift in decarbonising the Scandinavian transport sector: Applying substitution elasticities in TIMES-Nordic

In the Nordics, transportation accounts for almost 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions, a higher share than most European countries. The International Energy Agency identifies modal shift as pivotal for a sustainable transition of the transport sector. This study analyses the role of modal shift in the decarbonisation of the Scandinavian energy system with TIMES-Nordic, the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model depicting the national energy systems of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. For the first time, passenger and freight modal shift is modelled through substitution elasticities for a real case study. Transport elasticities from the literature are discussed in light of the modelling environment, and long-term direct elasticities are identified as suitable for the purpose. The results obtained with TIMES-Nordic and its version equipped with modal shift are compared under an increasing CO2 tax. For passenger, car is mainly substituted by rail and non-motorised modes, while for freight, rail replaces truck and ship. Modal shift results in a cost-effective mitigation measure, responsible for 26 PJ of lower fuel consumption in 2050, and 2.2% lower cumulative CO2 emissions from transport. A sensitivity analysis on the investment costs for electric cars reveals the ineffectiveness of the CO2 tax in stimulating car substitution in a future where electric cars are more competitive and the power sector almost decarbonised. Estimates of modal shift potentials from alternative methodologies are comparable to the results obtained, highlighting the methodology solidity. Lastly, a well-balanced technology characterization among modes is identified as crucial when enabling modal shift.