Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)

Ilaria Perissi,Gianluca Martelloni,Angel Nikolaev,Jordi Solé,Roger Samsó,Lukas Eggler,Ugo Bardi,Aled Jones,Martin Baumann,Davide Natalini

doi:10.3390/su13041967

Abstract

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

Highlights

The dynamics of complex systems, like socio-economic systems, energy systems, and environmental systems, are all interconnected by a dense network of feedbacks
The characteristics of the optimal level transition (OLT) scenario, which is focused on Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions reduction, leads to reduced realizable economic growth, much lower economic demand, lower energy consumption in all sectors, including industry
A key difference in root means squared differences (RMSDs) values is seen in variables that are characterized by an exponential growth in MEDEAS compared to stable growth in the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)

Summary

Introduction

The dynamics of complex systems, like socio-economic systems, energy systems, and environmental systems, are all interconnected by a dense network of feedbacks. Since the precursor World model [3], several IAMs have been created: especially those with greater influence over policy, share a core set of assumptions whose validity is still disputed in the scientific community, underpinning the development of new models [4]. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1967 with greater influence over policy, share a core set of assumptions whose validity is still disputed in the scientific community, underpinning the development of new models [4]. Is aa set set of of mathematical mathematical models models that that aims aims to to improve improve the state-of-the-art of IAMs: System dynamics modeling approach makes. MEDEAS able the state-of-the-art of IAMs: System dynamics modeling approach makes MEDEAS able to overcome the traditional. Since the precursor World model [3], several IAMs have been created: especially those with greater influence over policy, share a core set of assumptions whose validity is still disputed in the scientific community, underpinning the development of new models [4]. 4.0/).

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion