Abstract
Hydropower holds the largest renewable share in global electricity supply and will remain as a key technology for greenhouse gas mitigation in future. Rapid deployment of hydropower projects without storage has created the risks of hydropower generation far exceeding electricity demand in coming years in Nepal. This paper attempts to assess the volume of such surplus energy by proposing the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) based framework suitable to estimate excess energy in renewable predominated system with detailed representation of hydropower. This study presents surplus renewable generation as Cross Border Electricity Trade (CBET) potential to show how instrumental CBET can be to avoid renewable energy curtailment with case study of Nepal. The results suggest Nepal not only can avoid 99.4 TWH of hydropower curtailment and financial loss of 500 billion Nepalese Rupees but also can reduce 81.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in India by 2030 using CBET policy instrument, however, timely construction of planned cross-border transmission lines is essential to reap the full benefits.
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