Technological assessment of greenhouse gas reduction potential of power generation in Türkiye

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century and transformation of power generation infrastructure is essential to achieve the long-term temperature goals set by the Paris Agreement, given that it accounts approximately 34% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye, as a developing country, has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by up to 41% from the business-as-usual level by 2030. To explore potential pathways for the mitigation of emissions from power generation in Türkiye, a model was developed using the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modelling framework within this study. This model utilized national datasets to conduct a comprehensive assessment of current infrastructure of power generation in Türkiye, and emission trends were estimated under various scenarios. TIMES model allowed for an analysis of the energy, economy, and environment relationships based on technological development. Results were obtained for the reference scenario and three alternative scenarios for the period of 2020–2045. A mitigation potential of 18–50% from business as usual levels was obtained across scenarios. Total system costs were increased around 4%–24% as compared with reference scenario, which resulted in higher unit cost for electricity production.