Contributions of natural systems and human activity to greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

In this study, we conducted a literature review of relevant research and then statistically analyzed global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from natural systems, including forest fires, oceans, wetlands, permafrost, mud volcanoes, volcanoes, and earthquakes. Drawing on the Global Carbon Project (GCP) report, we also summarized the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. We then compared the global annual GHG emissions from natural systems with those generated by human activity. The results indicate that the global annual GHG emissions range approximately between 54.33 and 75.50 Gt CO2-eq, of which natural emissions account for 18.13–39.30 Gt CO2-eq, with the most likely value being approximately 29.07 Gt CO2-eq. According to the GCP report, the global anthropogenic emissions have increased from 22 Gt CO2-eq in 1990 to 36.2 Gt CO2-eq in 2016. The amounts of natural and anthropogenic GHGs emissions are roughly of the same order of magnitude. Anthropogenic emissions account for approximately 55.46% of the total global GHGs emissions (2016 value), i.e., the ratio of natural to anthropogenic emissions is approximately 0.8. In addition, the annual amount of GHGs absorbed by Earth systems (ocean and terrestrial ecosystems) ranges between approximately 14.4 Gt CO2-eq and 26.5 Gt CO2-eq, with natural system GHG emissions and sinks also having roughly the same order of magnitude. This finding indicates that the GHG emissions generated by human activity exert extra pressure on what is otherwise a self-balancing Earth system.