Sustainable Development Scenario Research Articles

The economy and the environment in debate: limits and potential for a new scenario for sustainable development and objectives

Objective: This article is a theoretical essay that presents the limits and potential of the economy in internalizing social and environmental costs, in order to try to recover the reflections on the discussion of the relationship between the economy, the environment and sustainable development. Method: In terms of methodological aspects, the research is classified as a bibliographical study, in which the source of data was obtained through secondary data, periodicals, books and other documents, the aim of which was to seek a deeper discussion of sustainable development. Results: For a long time in human history, economics has sought to achieve the status of a science through mathematical models. However, economics is immersed in the social dimension and the environmental dimension, as it uses natural resources as an input for the production process and human activities. Conclusions: In addition, it presents the trajectory of the concept of sustainable development and the accumulated contributions from world conferences to a reflection on eco-development as a new path for balanced economic growth. This essay points out that it is possible to establish an intersection between the environmental, social and economic dimensions in promoting innovative dynamics of development and sustainability, as pointed out in Rifkin's experience of the Third Industrial Revolution, the ONU contribution to contemporary times with the 2030 Agenda with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the whole of international society.

Simulation of wetland carbon storage in coastal cities under the coupled framework of socio-economic and ecological sustainability: A case study of Dongying city

Wetlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, and wetland protection is an important way to achieve carbon neutrality and synergistic benefits between humans and ecosystems in China. However, most of the previous studies lack the influencing factors and driving paths of wetland carbon storage (WCS) from the perspective of coupled systems. Based on the SD-PLUS-InVEST coupling model and the socio-economic and ecological sustainability (SEES) coupling framework, this paper reveals the driving-feedback mechanism of wetland areas (WAs) from 2005 to 2060, and realizes the dynamic monitoring of WAs and a detailed assessment of WCS in Dongying city. The results show the following: WAs have a positive feedback relationship with the water resources and ecosystem service (ES) subsystems but a negative feedback relationship with the population and economic subsystems. The business as usual (BAU) scenario led to a malignant transformation of natural wetlands (NWs)-artificial wetlands (AWs)-production land (PL), increasing WCS by expanding AWs. The coordinated sustainable development (CSD) scenario created a virtuous PL-AW-NW transformation, increasing 421,700 tons of WCS compared with BAU. This study holds great significance for the protection, restoration, and sustainable development of wetland resources in coastal cities.

Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Anticipated sea level rises from global climate change pose a significant flood risk to urban land. Evaluating urban land suitability under sea level rise scenarios is crucial for promoting sustainable development. Recent research has advanced the application of artificial intelligence and the integration of GIS with models, yet the impact of climate change on land suitability has often been overlooked. This study focuses on Xihu District in Hangzhou, utilizing the entropy weight and matter-element model to evaluate land suitability for urban development. The evaluation results were cross-verified with land use plans. A comprehensive analysis of potential flood risk to urban land in 2100 was conducted, considering varying degrees of sea level rise under Sustainable Development Scenario SSP1-2.6 and High-end Emission Scenario SSP5-8.5, as well as the scenario reflecting the most severe sea level rise during extreme climate events. The results indicate that more than half of the land in the study area is suitable for construction, aligning spatially with the current planned urban land. The analysis process of the matter-element model reflects the impact level of each indicator on urban land suitability, conveying information both spatially and numerically, thus enhancing accuracy. Scenario analysis reveals that approximately 10% to 20% of urban land in the study area could face flooding threats due to future sea level rises, primarily in the northern and southeastern regions. Recommendations for future land development and spatial planning strategies to address flood risk are discussed, aiming to alleviate the pressure on urban land in response to future climate change.

Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data

Land optimization simulation and ecosystem service value (ESV) estimation can better serve land managers in decision-making. However, land survey data are seldom used in existing studies, and land optimization constraints fail to fully consider land planning control, and the optimization at the provincial scale is not fine enough, which leads to a disconnection between academic research and land management. We coupled ESV, gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP), and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models based on authoritative data on land management to project land use and ESV change under natural development (ND), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development (SD) scenarios in 2030. The results show that construction land expanded dramatically (by 97.96% from 2000 to 2020), which encroached on grassland and cropland. This trend will continue in the BAU scenario. Construction land, woodland, and cropland are the main types of land used for expansion, while grassland and unused land, which lack strict use control, are the main land outflow categories. From 2000 to 2030, the total amount of ESV increases steadily and slightly. The spatial distribution of ESV is significantly aggregated and the agglomeration is increasing. The policy direction and land planning are important reasons for land use changes. The land use scenarios we set up can play an important role in preventing the uncontrolled expansion of construction land, mitigating the phenomenon of ecological construction, i.e., “governance while destruction”, and promoting food security. This study provides a new approach for provincial large-scale land optimization and ESV estimation based on land survey data and provides technical support for achieving sustainable land development.

Assessing the decarbonization roadmap of a RoPax ferry

AbstractThe reduction of emissions from shipping is necessary to combat climate change. One viable option is to change the fuels utilized. In this study, we investigate the environmental and economic performance of marine diesel oil (MDO), liquified natural gas (LNG), liquified biogas (LBG), and a mixture of LNG and LBG. We study a real case of a roll-on/roll-off passenger ship (RoPax) in Finland. Life cycle thinking is applied to assess the environmental impact, covering emissions from well to propeller (raw material extraction, fuel production, transportation, storage, and combustion), while the economic implications are estimated through future fuel prices and carbon pricing from 2023 to 2050. The carbon pricing covers different carbon tax schemes, namely stated policies scenario (STEPS), sustainable development scenarios (SDS), and net-zero emissions (NZE). STEPS reflects the existing measures and policies under development; SDS pursues to meet the goal of Paris Agreement, while NZE aims to reach net zero. Adopting LNG would improve carbon dioxide emissions, but the overall climate change impact was not significantly lower than MDO. It is also found that the biggest environmental improvement can be obtained by switching to LBG, although future availability can be an issue. The economic assessment shows that LBG has the highest fuel price uncertainties, although its carbon cost will be the lowest. Alternatively, using LNG & LBG mixture can serve as a transition path to contain climate change while dealing with its price uncertainty and availability.

A new automatic geo-electric self-potential imaging technique for diverse sustainable development scenarios

This study introduces a rapid and efficient inversion algorithm designed for the interpretation of self-potential responses originating from mineralized and ore sources and hydrothermal activity, specifically addressing spherical, vertical, and horizontal cylindrical structures. The algorithm leverages local wavenumber and correlation imaging techniques to enhance accuracy in modeling. The correlation factor (Cf value) is crucial in this approach, calculated as the correlation between the local wavenumber of the measured self-potential field and that of the computed field. The algorithm identifies the maximum correlation Cf value (CF-max) as indicative of the optimal true model parameters. To validate the proposed algorithm, it was applied to three theoretical examples—one with contamination from regional background and another with multiple sources with and without different types of noises (random Gaussian and white Gaussian noises). Additionally, the approach was tested on three distinct real field cases related to mining, ore investigation and hydrothermal activity in India, Germany and USA. Through a comprehensive analysis of results from theoretical and real-world scenarios, including comparisons with different available data and literature information, the study concludes that the method is effective, applicable to multiple sources, accurate, and does not necessitate prior knowledge of the source shape. This algorithm presents a promising advancement in the field of self-potential interpretation for mineral exploration and geothermal exploration.

Consequences of the Direct Reduction and Electric Steelmaking Grid Creation on the Italian Steel Sector

The consequences on the Italian steel sector following the conversion of the sole integrated steel plant and the establishment of a direct reduction/electric arc furnace (DR/EAF) grid in the period 2022–2050 were analyzed. Imported natural gas (pathway 0), green hydrogen (pathway 1) and biomethane (pathway 2) were studied as possible reducing gases to be exploited in the DR plant and to be introduced as a methane substitute in EAFs. The results showed that the environmental targets for the sustainable development scenario could be achieved in both 2030 and 2050. In particular, the main reduction would occur by 2030 as a result of the cease of the integrated plant itself, allowing for an overall reduction of 71% of the CO2 emitted in 2022. On the other hand, reaching the maximum production capacity of the DR plants by 2050 (6 Mton) would result in final emission reductions of 25%, 80% and 35% for pathways 0, 1 and 2, respectively. Finally, the creation of a DR/EAF grid would increase the energy demand burden, especially for pathway 1, which would require three times as much green energy as pathway 0 and/or 2 (36 TWh/y vs. ca. 12 TWh/y).

A review of existing model-based scenarios achieving SDGs: progress and challenges

Abstract Non-Technical Summary In 2015, the United Nations articulated the ambition to move toward a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all by adopting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, little is known about the pathways that could lead to their concurrent achievement. We provide an overview of the current literature on quantitative pathways toward the SDGs, indicate the commonly used methods and indicators, and identify the most comprehensive pathways that have been published to date. Our results indicate that there is a need for more scenarios toward the full set of SDGs, using a wider range of underlying narratives. Technical Summary Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help to explore the needed systems' transformations to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development by identifying enabling conditions and accounting for the synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs. Given that the SDGs were adopted some time ago, here, we review the existing global scenario literature to determine what it can offer in this context. We found only a few scenarios that address a large set of SDGs, while many more deal with specific clusters of 2–6 SDGs. We identified the most frequent clusters and compared the results of the most comprehensive sustainable development scenarios. The latter is complicated because of the diversity of methods, indicators, and assumptions used. Therefore, we suggest that an effort is needed to develop a wider set of scenarios that would achieve multiple SDGs, using a more standardized framework of targets and indicators. Social Media Summary This study reviews the current global pathways toward the SDGs and shows the need for a broader set of SDG scenarios.

Sustainable Medical Waste Management Using an Intuitionistic Fuzzy-Based Decision Support System

The growing urban population and increased use of healthcare services have brought significant attention to the safe and sustainable management of medical waste. Selecting the proper technology in medical waste management (MWM) represents one of the most critical challenges for decision-makers to ensure public health. In order to evaluate and choose the best MWM methodology, the current research provides a novel multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) strategy for a variety of social stakeholders, to compute criteria weights, decision-making weights, and alternative ranking algorithms. The suggested structure addresses uncertain assessments of alternatives by extending weighting and ranking methods to acquire the decision-making weight and rank the MWM alternatives based on uncertain conditions. It also uses ‘intuitionistic fuzzy’ linguistic variables to indicate criteria weights. To assess all the factors pertaining to the sustainability of MWM actions, this study suggests the creation of a decision support system (DSS). Our DSS is built upon a novel strategy that utilizes a collection of MCDM models that are grounded on contemporary intuitionistic fuzzy logic methodologies. Alternative scenarios have been assessed for the instance of Greece, after specialists in the healthcare management field imposed 17 criteria and sub-criteria. The IF-MCDM methodologies used were the Intuitionistic Fuzzy DEMATEL, TOPSIS, and CORPAS. The alternative scenarios ranged from the prioritizing of safety laws and regulations to public acceptance and awareness, with the handling of hazardous risks and transportation playing a crucial part in the process. All ensemble methods produced the same ranking of the alternatives, demonstrating that safety and risk avoidance is the most significant scenario for sustainable urban development and public health.

Measurement technologies for pipeline transport of carbon dioxide-rich mixtures for CCS

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is necessary to achieve the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The mass of CO₂ that will be transported for permanent storage by 2050, to meet the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Sustainable Development Scenario, is of a similar scale to the current global market of natural gas. Such trading levels require significant and expedited technological efforts. The urgency of the climate goals requires technological innovations to build from existing technologies operating in similar environments. The present work aims to be a stepping stone towards the realisation of the CCS business, which relies on accurate metrology and tight control systems. Here, various established technologies are screened, and for each principle, their possible niches of operation within CCS are identified. Eight technologies were shortlisted and assessed against selected benchmarking criteria. The most promising solutions for the various operative scenarios encompassing bulk flow measurement, structural flow identification, composition, and leak detection are described. All surveyed technologies require further experimental verification for one or more of the operating schemes throughout the CCS value chain. A roadmap to further explore the applicability of various measurement principles in CCS is also provided.

Carbon emissions and low-carbon development in Olefin industry

Olefin industry as a vital part in economic development is facing a problem of high CO2 emission. In this work, for the global and China's olefin industry under different development scenario, the carbon emission is predicted after the revealing of carbon footprint in different olefin routes. The results show that the carbon footprint of the natural gas liquids (NGLs)-derived route is highly lower than that of the oil- and coal-derived routes. The carbon emission from the global olefin industry in 2015 is 553 million ton CO2 (MtCO2). In 2030, it will be ranged between 739 and 924 MtCO2 under different scenarios. Under sustainable development scenario, 15% reduction space is existed, whereas 6% growth is observed under the hybrid-development scenario compared to the business-as-usual situation. In the case of China, its carbon emission is 120 MtCO2 in 2015. Its potential carbon emission in 2030 will increase to 264–925 MtCO2, depending on the rest new capacity from low-carbon or high-carbon routes. The large gap implies the significant influence of the development route choice. However, if most new capacity is from the existed planned olefin projects, the carbon emission will be ranged between 390 and 594 MtCO2. Finally, the low-carbon roadmaps as well as polices are proposed for sustainable development of olefin industry.

Emulsion System With Nanoparticles Suitable for High-Temperature, High-Salinity Reservoirs

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 211167, “Selective and Reversible Water-Shutoff Agent Based on Emulsion System With Nanoparticles Suitable for Carbonate Reservoirs at High-Temperature and High-Salinity Conditions,” by Masashi Abe, SPE, Jumpei Furuno, and Satoru Murakami, Nissan Chemical Corporation, et al. The paper has not been peer reviewed. _ The complete paper presents the evaluation results of a water-shutoff (WSO) agent based on an emulsion-type chemical material with nanoparticles. The WSO agent, which the authors call an emulsion system with nanoparticles (ESN), has several advantages to existing polymer and gel materials, including high thermal stability, low sensitivity to mineralization, thixotropic characteristics, selectivity of blocking effects for oil and water, and reversibility of blocking effects. In WSO applications, these properties of ESN could be well-suited for improved oil recovery. Introduction ESN is recognized as a proven technology for carbonate reservoirs. However, the reservoir under study did not feature harsh conditions; therefore, this work evaluated ESN potential for carbonate reservoirs in the UAE typically having high-temperature and high-salinity conditions. A primary purpose of the technology, aside from improved oil recovery, is contributing to greenhouse-gas emission reduction and building competitive low-CO2-intensity oil-brand value. In general, produced water volume dramatically increases in maturing oil fields. Reducing water production also can contribute to saving water injection from a reservoir-voidage-replacement viewpoint. Therefore, the functional chemical WSO concept has a significant effect on contributing to the International Energy Agency’s sustainable development scenario. Materials and Physicochemical Property Tests Oil, Water, and Carbonate Core. Dead oil is sampled from an offshore carbonate field in the Middle East containing light crude oil (32.3 °API). Brine and plug core properties are summarized in Tables 1 and 2 of the complete paper. For thermal-stability tests, both brines were used for making the ESN. The WSO coreflood tests used the ESN made with injection water. Advanced Features of ESN. Rheology. The viscosity of ESN is controllable by changing the water/oil ratio; viscosity becomes lower with increasing oil content and higher with increasing water content. These components were stirred, and two ESN samples were prepared using Crude Oil A (from Oil Field A, UAE) or diesel oil. The samples are referred to as Crude Oil A-based ESN and Diesel Oil-based ESN in this paper. Both ESN samples showed similar viscosity curves; such thixotropic characteristics are an important property of ESN. ESN is flowable at stirring conditions. In particular, the viscosity of ESN can be decreased to less than 50 cp at high shear rates, so it can be injected into the reservoir by pumping. On the other hand, ESN becomes highly viscous and less flowable when no energy is applied to it (the ESN surface looks semisolid in this condition). In field operations, the viscosity of ESN decreases depending on the pressure generated by injection pumps on the surface. However, the injection pressure also releases in a radial direction from the bottomhole zone. As a result, ESN recovers a high-viscosity state because of decreasing shear rate with pressure release.

Design urban climate-resilience with Nature-Based Solutions and Green Infrastructures. Challenges, issues, and best practices for neighborhood-scale regeneration

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to urban environments, mostly affecting already vulnerable communities and ecosystems. While Climate Action (13th Sustainable Development Goal) still tends to focus on economic shifts and technological fixes, urban design and planning can play a crucial role in climate adaptation processes, enhancing socio-ecological resilience, while improving inclusivity, livability, wellbeing for all, opening to sustainable development scenarios. By focusing on nature-based solutions (NBS) and green infrastructure (GI), the contribution, which is part of an ongoing research, aims at identifying issues, challenges, and best practices to operationalize climate resilient adaptation through urban nature design and planning process and actions for neighborhood scale’s regeneration. Through a qualitative methodology, three neighborhood case studies, recognized as best practices, will be compared in order to understand, issue and procedures related to the implementation of climate NBS and GI inside urban regeneration design and planning process.eworks towards equitable and livable urban futures.

Assessing and decoupling ecosystem services evolution in karst areas: A multi-model approach to support land management decision-making

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning provides a fresh perspective for informed land management decisions. ESV, influenced by socio-economic and natural factors, has complex driving mechanisms, particularly in China's southwestern karst regions. Studying mediating variables helps elucidate these mechanisms. Further research into ecosystem services interactions and effective land use policies in karst areas is needed. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province, located in southern China's karst region, using the benefit transfer approach. Combining the Guizhou Provincial Land Use Planning Outline (2006–2020) with the multi-objective programming (MOP) model optimized by genetic algorithm and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, four future development scenarios were designed. The response of ESV to land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the county scale under four different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in the future was analyzed. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the driving mechanism affecting ESV. The results show that over the past two decades, with the implementation of various ecological restoration projects, the total ESV has increased. The ESV for natural development scenarios, ecological conservation scenarios, economic development scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios are CNY 238.278 billion, CNY 400.514 billion, CNY 283.201 billion, and CNY 323.615 billion, respectively. The direct impacts of karst surface characteristic factors (KSCF), meteorological factors (MF), socio-economic factors (SEF) and transportation location factors (TLF) on ESV are positive (0.098), negative (−0.098), positive (0.336), and positive (0.109) respectively. The total effect of KSCF on ESV through influencing socio-economic factors and LULC is (−0.738), with SEF playing a complete mediating role. MF indirectly affect ESV by influencing LULC, with LULC playing a complete mediating role in this process. The PLS-SEM model shows that under the dominant position of LULC, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on ESV is very complex. This study offers valuable insights that can guide managers in this region, as well as in other karst regions globally, in the development of sustainable land use policies.

Research on land use pattern change and its influencing factors based on the coupling model: evidence from Zhongshan, China

The change in the land spatial structure affects regional development and stability. In the context of the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, studying the spatial structure changes in its important cities will contribute to the coordinated development of the region. This study uses spatial analysis and coupling models to explore the basic characteristics and evolutionary trends of the land spatial structure in Zhongshan city in 2000, 2011, 2022, and 2035. Through research, it is found that (1) in general, the urban space is divided into different geometric forms by the water network system. The spatial structure of living land is ‘fragmentation-aggregation-aggregation and fragmentation’. (2) Ecological land is concentrated in the southeast and remained relatively stable. Productive land accounts for the largest proportion in Northeast China, becoming the main area of agricultural development. (3) From 2022 to 2035, the area of productive land will increase in different ranges under four scenarios, and the area of productive land will increase the fastest under the urbanization development scenario (UDS). (4) The ecological land area increases only in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), and the area decreases in the other three scenarios. An increase in construction land area occurs in the urbanization development scenario (UDS) and nature development scenario (NDS). (5) The habitat quality of Zhongshan city showed a significant decline from 2000 to 2022. In 2035, the habitat quality will significantly improve in the ecological protection scenario (EPS) and sustainable development scenario (SDS) scenarios, and the ecological regions in Southeast China will be significantly clustered and expanded.

How will ecosystem carbon sequestration contribute to the reduction of regional carbon emissions in the future? analysis based on the MOP-PLUS model framework

Carbon neutralization of land use and land cover (LULC) has become an important way for countries to cope with future climate change. Existing studies focus on the quantification and analysis of historical and current carbon storage and emissions but lack an understanding of future LULC carbon storage and emissions, which limits the practical guiding value of research findings for regional dynamic management and scientific decision-making. In this study, the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of carbon dynamics in different ecosystems, such as forest, cropland and grassland, in the West Liao River Basin (WLRB) since 1990 were quantitatively assessed. Grey multiple objective programming (G-MOP) and patch‑generating land use simulation (PLUS) models were used to predict the LULC distribution, carbon emissions and carbon storage under the sustainable development scenario (SDS) in the WLRB in 2030 and 2060, and a comparative analysis was performed with other development scenarios. The overall area of grassland and forest ecosystems showed an upwards trend from 1990 to 2020, while the area of farmland ecosystems slightly decreased. In the western part of the WLRB, net ecosystem production (NEP) showed high aggregation, and low NEP showed an aggregation effect in the urban area. Under the economic development scenario (EDS) in 2030 and 2060, cropland and impervious layers will be further expanded, carbon emissions will be the highest, and the carbon storage amount will be the lowest. Under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the water area and forest area increased significantly, carbon emissions were the lowest, and carbon storage was the highest. Under the SDS scenario, the areas of cropland, forest, impervious layer and water body are moderate, and the carbon budget is better than that under the natural development scenario (NDS). Under these three scenarios, the barren area is lower than that of the natural development scenario. Considering the economic benefit, ecological benefit and carbon budget, the SDS scenario has the best performance. This study provides a new perspective for discussing the future carbon budget status of small-scale watershed areas and combines the goals of “sustainable development” and “dual carbon”. It provides a data-supported basis for discussing the diversified ecological compensation mechanism of the WLRB from the perspective of carbon neutrality as well as insights for the formulation of regional LULC optimization management policies.

Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Future Temperature Change over the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin Based on CMIP6

Accurate predictions of future climate change are significant to both human social production and development. Accordingly, the changes in the daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin (YBRB), along with its three sub-regions (Tibetan Plateau—TP, Himalayan Belt—HB, and Floodplain—FP) were evaluated here using the Bayesian model average (BMA) results from nine climate models in the CMIP6 under four future scenarios, and the corresponding uncertainty of the projected results was analyzed. The results showed the following: (1) The BMA can simulate the Tmax and Tmin of the YBRB well. (2) Future Tmax and Tmin over the YBRB exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend. Even under the most ideal sustainable development scenario examined (SSP126), the average Tmax (Tmin) over the YBRB was projected to increase by 3.53 (3.38) °C by the end of this century. (3) Although the future changes in the YBRB are predicted to fall below the global average, the future temperature difference in the YBRB will increase further. (4) The uncertainty increased with prediction time, while spatially, the regions with the uncertainty were the TP > HB > FP. These findings can provide a reference for the YBRB climate change adaptation strategies.

Prediction of CO2 emission peak and reduction potential of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

Forecasting the future emission trajectories and the relating sensitive driving factors of emissions for cities is of great significance to formulate realizable CO2 mitigation policies. To proceed the forecasting, studies on peak prediction and quantification of reduction potential at the city level are essential. However, the studies in the area are very limited. Selecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) as the study region, this paper aims to contribute to the research area and provides implications for other cities or urban agglomerations. The Kaya identity and multi-scenario simulation were employed to predict the dynamic evolution pathways of CO2 emissions from 2021 to 2035 and explore the differential CO2 peak time, peak value, and reduction potential for 13 cities in BTH. Monte Carlo simulation, Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimation method are jointly used to reduce uncertainties in estimation. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that most cities in BTH have already reached their CO2 emissions peak, while Tianjin, Langfang, Cangzhou and Tangshan are expected to reach their peaks between 2025 and 2030. Among them, 5 and 8 cities have the risk of not reaching their peak before 2035 in the high consumption scenario (HCS) and extensive development scenario (EDS) respectively. Comparative analysis reveals that low-carbon scenario (LCS) and sustainable development scenario (SDS) have significant effects on emissions reductions. The top three cities in terms of accumulative emission reduction in 2021–2035 are Tianjin, Tangshan and Cangzhou, estimated as 117.82–250.75 Mt CO2 in LCS and 217.77–454.10 Mt CO2 in SDS, respectively. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal that the most critical driver of CO2 emissions in Beijing is population, while that is GDP per capita for Tianjin. Langfang and Hengshui showed the highest sensitivity to energy intensity. Accordingly, these cities have differentiated concerns and priorities to achieve their carbon peak goal as scheduled.

Does partition matter? A new approach to modeling land use change

Cellular automata (CA) is a classical method for studying land use change. However, homogeneous transformation rules have commonly been used to conduct simulations in the past, and these rules seldom consider the spatial heterogeneity of geographic elements. Therefore, in this study, we incorporated spatial-temporal heterogeneity transformation rules into the CA framework based on spatial data mining. A model that couples self-organizing maps (SOM), hierarchical clustering (HC), and patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) was proposed; it is called the SOM-HC-PLUS model. This model considers the difference in local-area driving factors, and therefor it not only determines the optimal partition scheme automatically, but it also measures the contribution of partition driving factors. The Jinpu New Area in Dalian, China, was used to test the validity of the model by comparing the traditional PLUS model and the administrative division (AD)-PLUS model based on AD partition. The results showed that the partition scheme of the SOM-HC-PLUS model was reasonable and credible. Further, compared with other models, this model showed higher simulation accuracy and a more realistic land use distribution pattern. The driving factors showed significant differences in the overall and regional intensity. Moreover, the importance of natural environmental conditions, represented by elevation factors, in the expansion of artificial surfaces increased significantly. By 2030, artificial surfaces were projected to increase significantly through the conversion of cultivated lands. The sustainable development scenario showed a more compact patch layout and exhibited better protection of grasslands and forests than the historical development scenario. In summary, this study proposed a mixture CA model based on the idea of geographic partition, one that proved the reliability of the SOM-HC-PLUS model to conduct spatial-temporal heterogeneity studies on land use partition. It provides the possibility to explore patterns of regional land use changes over multiple periods, and can assist in urban planning and management and promoting sustainable development.

Limpopo National Park (Mozambico): groundwater assessment as a tool for a sustainable management of the area

This paper deals with updated results coming from hydrogeological studies carried on the framework of the SECOSUD Phase II, called “Conservation and equitable use of biological diversity in the SADC region (Southern African Development Community), a project supported by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the SADC, whose focus area includes South Africa Development Countries. The main goal of the SECOSUD Phase II Project is the definition and implementation of scenarios for sustainable development, aimed at an equitable conservation of biodiversity resources and, as a consequence of this target, the hydrogeological characterization, with the groundwater recharge assessment, of this area and its buffer zone. Limpopo National Park is one of the jewels in the crown of Mozambique’s protected areas. As a matter of fact, sustaining the conservation of biodiversity, due to its complexity and multiple drivers, which stress it, is on first a matter of water environment assessment, as most ecosystems are highly dependent on the hydrological cycle and groundwater availability. After gathering regional and local geological data, which let us set up a detailed geological map of the area under study, pointing out the main outcropping geological units, with their main hydrogeological properties, the methodological approach adopted has been to assess the potential infiltration, applying the Inverse Hydrogeological Budget Technique, performed for the focus area. Because of the lack of meteorological data referred to Limpopo National Park, it has been applied a spatial distribution of precipitation measurements, collected in many gauge stations, located in the Kruger National Park during the last 54 years, which represent an interesting rainfall historical series. The target of the study has been to assess a trend of meteorological data with the aim of understanding how precipitations could affect groundwater recharge, and their influence on groundwater availability. The estimation of groundwater recharge is the tool for suggesting better water management in the area, aimed to preserve as much biodiversity as people living in the buffer zone.