How will ecosystem carbon sequestration contribute to the reduction of regional carbon emissions in the future? analysis based on the MOP-PLUS model framework

Abstract

Carbon neutralization of land use and land cover (LULC) has become an important way for countries to cope with future climate change. Existing studies focus on the quantification and analysis of historical and current carbon storage and emissions but lack an understanding of future LULC carbon storage and emissions, which limits the practical guiding value of research findings for regional dynamic management and scientific decision-making. In this study, the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of carbon dynamics in different ecosystems, such as forest, cropland and grassland, in the West Liao River Basin (WLRB) since 1990 were quantitatively assessed. Grey multiple objective programming (G-MOP) and patch‑generating land use simulation (PLUS) models were used to predict the LULC distribution, carbon emissions and carbon storage under the sustainable development scenario (SDS) in the WLRB in 2030 and 2060, and a comparative analysis was performed with other development scenarios. The overall area of grassland and forest ecosystems showed an upwards trend from 1990 to 2020, while the area of farmland ecosystems slightly decreased. In the western part of the WLRB, net ecosystem production (NEP) showed high aggregation, and low NEP showed an aggregation effect in the urban area. Under the economic development scenario (EDS) in 2030 and 2060, cropland and impervious layers will be further expanded, carbon emissions will be the highest, and the carbon storage amount will be the lowest. Under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the water area and forest area increased significantly, carbon emissions were the lowest, and carbon storage was the highest. Under the SDS scenario, the areas of cropland, forest, impervious layer and water body are moderate, and the carbon budget is better than that under the natural development scenario (NDS). Under these three scenarios, the barren area is lower than that of the natural development scenario. Considering the economic benefit, ecological benefit and carbon budget, the SDS scenario has the best performance. This study provides a new perspective for discussing the future carbon budget status of small-scale watershed areas and combines the goals of “sustainable development” and “dual carbon”. It provides a data-supported basis for discussing the diversified ecological compensation mechanism of the WLRB from the perspective of carbon neutrality as well as insights for the formulation of regional LULC optimization management policies.