Optimizing the Land Use and Land Cover Pattern to Increase Its Contribution to Carbon Neutrality

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) contribute to both carbon storage and carbon emissions. Therefore, regulating the LULC is an important means of achieving carbon neutrality under global environmental change. Here, the West Liaohe River Basin, a semiarid watershed, was taken as a case study. Based on the assessment of the carbon storage and emissions induced by LULC from 2000–2020, we set up three different coupled shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585), from 2030–2060, to optimize the LULC. Then, the LULC patterns under each scenario were simulated using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the corresponding changes in carbon storage and emissions were compared and analyzed. It was found that, since 2000, with the expansion of forest, cropland, and construction land, as well as the degradation of grassland, the carbon storage and emissions induced by LULC have significantly increased, but the increase in storage was lower than that of emissions. The scenario simulations revealed that, when we optimize the LULC, mainly including the protection and expansion of ecological land such as forest and grassland in the western and southern edges of the basin, as well as the control and management of cropland land and construction land in the northeast and central parts of the basin, there will be a significant increase in the carbon storage and a significant reduction in carbon emissions from 2030–2060. This indicates that zone-based management measures with rational LULC regulation can contribute to the achievement of carbon neutrality in the study area. Supported by the results of this study, a direct decision-making basis for land use policy regulation to promote regional sustainable development can be undertaken in the basin. This study also provides a reference for low-carbon development in other regions.