Sustainable Development Scenario Research Articles

Multiple scenarios analysis on land use simulation by coupling socioeconomic and ecological sustainability in Shanghai, China

Land use simulation under different development strategies is the key research direction of quantitative analysis of land use planning. Recent studies coupled the spatial optimization of land use with economic development and ecological protection, but without consideration of environmental justice. This study introduced the evaluation of ecosystem services (ES) supply and demand equilibrium into the coupled model integrating Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) model and Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. It can comprehensively consider both socioeconomic and ecological objectives by analyzing geographical, built environment, and socioeconomic data. We found that the dynamic degree of land use change in the sustainable development (SD) scenario is much higher than the overall land use change trends during the last decade. A large number of cropland and parts of built-up land will be transferred towards ecological land. Furthermore, the results show that the coupled model of land use simulation can mitigate the mismatch of ES supply and demand, leading to environmental injustice. The sustainable development scenario can help decision-makers to understand how important government intervention is during future land use planning from the perspective of sustainable development.

Food-water-land-ecosystem nexus in typical Chinese dryland under different future scenarios

Healthy coupling of the food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is the basis for achieving sustainable development (SD), and FWLE in drylands is frontier scientific issues in the study of coupled human land systems. To comprehensively safeguard the future food, water, and ecological security of drylands, this study examined the implications for FWLE linkages in a typical Chinese dryland from the perspective of future land-use change. First, four different land-use scenarios were proposed using a land-use simulation model with a gray multi-objective algorithm, including an SD scenario. Then, the variation of three ecosystem services was explored: water yield, food production, and habitat quality. Finally, redundancy analysis was used to derive the future drivers of FWLE and explore their causes. The following results were obtained. In the future in Xinjiang, under the business as usual scenario, urbanization will continue, forest area will decrease, and water production will decline by 371 million m3. In contrast, in the SD scenario, this negative impact will be substantially offset, water scarcity will be alleviated, and food production will increase by 1.05 million tons. In terms of drivers, the anthropogenic drivers will moderate the future urbanization of Xinjiang to some extent, with natural drivers dominating the sustainable development scenario by 2030 and a potential 22 % increase in the drivers of precipitation. This study shows how spatial optimization can help protect the sustainability of the FWLE nexus in drylands and simultaneously provides clear policy recommendations for regional development.

Rapid decarbonization in the Chinese electric power sector and air pollution reduction Co-benefits in the Post-COP26 Era

The 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) has promulgated pivotal climate change mitigation goals for our planet. Decarbonization efforts that align the COP26 goals are underway, especially in high emission sectors. Decarbonization plays a role in reducing air pollution from power plants because of co-benefits. This study proposes a new method to quantify the co-benefits of air pollution reduction by integrating two models, where the effects of reduced air pollution from end-of-pipe measures and climate strategies are disentangled. Results show that in a more rapid future decarbonization scenario in the Chinese electric power sector (International Energy Agency's Sustainable Development Scenario), climate strategies bring about 10–87 times more co-benefits of reduced air pollution than in a slower decarbonization scenario (International Energy Agency's New Policies Scenario). The fossil fuel use factor contributes the most to the additional co-benefits of air pollution reduction from decarbonizing. Substitution of non-fossil energy sources for fossil fuels plays a pivotal role in facilitating these co-benefits. Future decarbonization policies, such as increased end-use efficiency and generation efficiency in power plants can also reduce additional air pollution from power plants as they accelerate the decarbonization process.

Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

The frequent urban floods have seriously affected the regional sustainable development in recent years. It is significant to understand the characteristics of urban flood risk and reasonably predict urban flood risk under different land use scenarios. This study used the random forest and multi-criteria decision analysis models to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood risk in Zhengzhou City, China, from 2005 to 2020, and proposed a robust method coupling Bayesian network and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future flood risk probability. We found that the flood risk in Zhengzhou City presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2020, and its spatial pattern was "high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas". In addition, land use patterns under the sustainable development scenario would be more conducive to reducing flood risk. Our results can provide theoretical support for scientifically optimizing land use to improve urban flood risk management.

Prediction of China’s Carbon Peak Attainment Pathway from Both Production-Side and Consumption-Side Perspectives

To achieve global sustainable development and actively respond to climate change, China, as the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, needs to save energy and reduce emissions without delay. By constructing LEAP-China production-side and LEAP-China consumption-side models, we predict the carbon emissions of China’s production side and consumption side in different scenarios from 2020 to 2050, respectively. The results show that under the current policies, neither the production side nor consumption side can achieve targeted peak carbon emissions by 2030, which is contrary to China’s current carbon emission policy. Under the sustainable development scenario, China’s production-side CO2 emissions would peak at 10,462.2 Mt in 2029, and China’s consumption-side CO2 emissions would peak 3 years later compared to the production side at 9904.3 Mt in 2032. Therefore, to achieve the peak for both the production and consumption side, we need to coordinate various policies and actively promote industrial restructuring and energy structure optimization. In terms of trade structure, China’s existing import and export trade structure should be adjusted to reduce the export of industrially manufactured goods and increase the proportion of technology-intensive products in foreign trade to realize the transformation from a high-carbon trade structure to a low-carbon trade structure.

The development options of nuclear power under carbon dioxide emissions constraints

The aim of the work is forecasting the development of nuclear power in Russia and the world for the period up to 2050 under various scenarios of constraints on carbon dioxide emissions. A brief comparative analysis of the main characteristics of the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has been carried out. Additionally, calculations were performed using the mathematical models of the world energy system GEM and GEM-Dyn developed at the ISEM SB RAS. The optimal ratio of nuclear and non-nuclear energy sources has been determined. It is shown that nuclear power, including nuclear power plants operating on a closed fuel cycle, along with renewable energy sources, is an effective technology that can solve the problem of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Calculations have shown that in the sustainable development scenario, the capacity of nuclear power plants in Russia in the period from 2020 to 2050 can increase by 2.7 times, and their share in electricity generation can reach 21–25% in 2030 and 26–35% in 2050. The average annual growth rate (for 30 years) of the installed capacity of nuclear power plants in Russia in the sustainable development scenario is 3.1% compared to 2.7% for the world as a whole. In the GEM and GEM-Dyn calculations performed by the authors, the scale of nuclear energy use turned out to be about 30% higher than in the scenarios of the International Energy Agency due to more conservative estimates of the opportunities for improving the performance of renewable energy sources and taking into account the need to back-up their capacity.

Pathways for deep decarbonization of the Brazilian iron and steel industry

Steel production is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Brazil is one of the largest steel producers in the world and its main energy sources for steel production are coal, electricity, and charcoal. The latter shows a peculiarity of Brazil in relation to other countries: the use of biomass. This study has developed an optimization bottom-up model describing the steel industry to explore pathways for the decarbonization of the Brazilian steel industry. The model minimizes the mitigation costs, considering a set of measures (energy efficiency technologies and innovative production routes), constrained by the availability of raw materials and the diffusion of new technologies. In addition, the model stands out by incorporating crucial elements for a circular bioeconomy strategy: scrap and biomass supply, as well biomass-based production technologies. We developed four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and three mitigation scenarios aligned with different GHG mitigation goals in 2050: 0% (no emission increase scenario – NIS); 42% (sustainable development scenario – SDS) and 88% (deep sustainable development scenario – SDS+). Results show that GHG mitigation in the short term can be achieved by the adoption of well known technologies (energy efficiency, charcoal-based BF-BOF, and EAF) at negative mitigation costs (between −35.3 and - 1.5 $/tCO2e). Innovative routes play a key role in reaching emission goals but increase the mitigation costs until 2050 (between 23.4 and 43.4 $/tCO2e). Smelting reduction with charcoal is present in all scenarios, reaching up to 24% of steel production in 2050 (SDS+). Direct reduction (DR) is applied to reach more ambitious levels of GHG mitigation in SDS and SDS+. In SDS, DR with natural gas is implemented in 2029, reaching its higher share of production in 2050 (21%). In SDS + natural gas has a transition role. It starts to be used in DR in 2025, increasing until 2043, when hydrogen begins to replace it. By 2050, charcoal becomes the main energy source in all decarbonization scenarios. The results and insights provided by this study can help policymakers towards decarbonization.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Green Space Landscape Pattern in Harbin City Based on FLUS Model.

In this study, the change in green space in different scenarios and the index characteristics of landscape patterns were analyzed and were conducive to providing the decision basis for future green space planning in Harbin, a city in Northeast China. The FLUS model was used to predict the layout of green space, and the prediction results were analyzed and evaluated using the landscape index method. Combined with the MOP model and LINGO12.0, the objective function of economic benefit and ecological benefit was established to maximize the comprehensive benefit. As revealed by the outcome, from 2010 to 2020, the fragmentation degree of cultivated land, forest, and grassland decreased, and the overall landscape level tended to be diversified and uniform. In the status quo scenario, the cultivated land and the forest land were increased, whereas the water area and the wetland changed little, and its overall benefit was the lowest. The forest was increased by 137.46 km² in the ecological protection scenario, the largest among the three scenarios, and the overall water quality improved. In the economic development scenario, the cultivated land tended to expand rapidly, the connectivity was increased, and the area of forest was decreased by 69.19 km², and its comprehensive benefit is lower than that under the scenario of ecological protection. The sustainable development scenario achieved the most significant economic and ecological benefits, with a total income of CNY 435,860.88 million. Therefore, the future green space pattern should limit the expansion of cultivated land, maintain the spatial pattern of woodland and wetland, and enhance the protection of water area. In this study, Harbin green space was studied from different scenario perspectives, combined with landscape pattern index and multi-objective planning, which is of great significance for Harbin green space planning decisions in the future and improving comprehensive benefits.

Multi-Objective Optimization of Land Use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China Based on the GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model

The changeable patterns and contractions of land use have become increasingly significant in recent years as the economy and society have rapidly developed. Subsequently, land use change simulation has become a focal point in the study of land use patterns and change processes. Four development scenarios in 2030, including business-as-usual, ecological protection, economic development, and sustainable development scenarios, are proposed to realize the sustainable development of land use in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in the context of a low-carbon economy and ecological security. Then, a feasible multi-objective land use optimization scheme suitable for the region’s long-term development was identified through comparative analysis. The GMOP-PLUS model analyzed changes in ecological and economic benefits and carbon emissions by optimizing the quantitative structure and spatial layout of land use in different scenarios. The cultivated land area in the four scenarios decreased, while the construction land area increased for all scenarios other than the ecological protection and sustainable development scenarios. Moreover, the target development of the sustainable development scenario was the most balanced, with carbon emissions and economic benefits reduced by 49.77 million tons and CNY 0.73 billion compared with the business-as-usual scenario, respectively. Meanwhile, the ecological benefits increased by CNY 0.03 billion, and the economic benefits increased by 1.54 times compared with those in 2020. Therefore, the sustainable development scenario was more in line with the needs of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei for high-quality economic and ecological development, aiming towards a low-carbon goal. This work provides a theoretical basis for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei territorial spatial planning and more perspectives for the study of sustainable land use through the obtained results.

Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics.

The evaluation of the sustainable development of resource-based cities is still one of the hotspots in today's social research. Taking Jining, Shandong Province, as the research object, this work combines a relevant emergy evaluation index system with system dynamics, establishes a resource-based city emergy flow system dynamics model, and studies sustainable development path in the next planning year. In the work, the key factors affecting the sustainable development of Jining are obtained through the coupling of regression and SD sensitivity analysis, and some scenarios are set up by combining them with the local 14th Five-year plan. Besides, the appropriate scenario (M-L-H-H) for Jining's future sustainable development is chosen in accordance with regional circumstances. That is, during the 14th Five-year Plan period, the appropriate development ranges for the growth rate of social fixed assets investment, the growth rate of raw coal emergy, the growth rate of grain emergy and the reduction rate of solid waste emergy are 17.5-18.3%, - 4.0 to - 3.2%, 1.8-2.6% and 4-4.8%. The methodology system constructed in this article can serve as a reference for similar studies, and the research findings can aid the government in formulating pertinent plans for resource-based cities.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the Colombian Amazon to evaluate alternative post-conflict pathways

Pastures and crops have been expanding at an accelerated rate in the forests of the Colombian Amazon since the peace accords were signed in 2016. The rapid loss of tropical rainforests is threatening the integrity of protected areas and connectivity in the Amazon and other natural regions. In the context of the post-conflict stage, a set of land use and land cover change scenarios were constructed for the Colombian Amazon for the year 2040, using expert coherent narratives. Three scenarios were designed: trend, extractivist, and sustainable development. Historic land use change and driving factors were analyzed throughout 14 transitions between the years 2002 and 2016, based on the interpretation of Landsat images and their relationship with 29 driving factors using artificial neural networks. The Markov chain model was calculated for the transitions, and the change allocation model was parameterized to spatially simulate the scenarios. The results showed that the LULC model calibration and validation were satisfactory (0.91). The sustainable development scenario that considers strong policies for the conservation of forests and implementation of sustainable production projects was the option with greater values for conserved forests and secondary vegetation in recovery, adding ~ 42 million hectares by 2040. The other scenarios showed that the Colombian Amazon will lose ~ 2 million hectares of forests in the trend scenario and ~ 4.3 million hectares in the extractivist scenario, based on the reference year (2016). In the trend scenario, pastures and crops could increase by 48%; and, in the extractivist scenario, these would increase by 117%, changing from ~ 3.9 to ~ 8.6 million hectares. We hope that the scientific contribution of this study will be relevant for informed discussion in decision-making and provide a framework for building a peaceful territory.

Electrodialysis Processes an Answer to Industrial Sustainability: Toward the Concept of Eco-Circular Economy?-A Review.

Wastewater and by-product treatments are substantial issues with consequences for our society, both in terms of environmental impacts and economic losses. With an overall global objective of sustainable development, it is essential to offer eco-efficient and circular solutions. Indeed, one of the major solutions to limit the use of new raw materials and the production of wastes is the transition toward a circular economy. Industries must find ways to close their production loops. Electrodialysis (ED) processes such as conventional ED, selective ED, ED with bipolar membranes, and ED with filtration membranes are processes that have demonstrated, in the past decades and recently, their potential and eco-efficiency. This review presents the most recent valorization opportunities among different industrial sectors (water, food, mining, chemistry, etc.) to manage waste or by-product resources through electrodialysis processes and to improve global industrial sustainability by moving toward circular processes. The limitations of existing studies are raised, especially concerning eco-efficiency. Indeed, electrodialysis processes can be optimized to decrease energy consumption and costs, and to increase efficiency; however, eco-efficiency scores should be determined to compare electrodialysis with conventional processes and support their advantages. The review shows the high potential of the different types of electrodialysis processes to treat wastewaters and liquid by-products in order to add value or to generate new raw materials. It also highlights the strong interest in using eco-efficient processes within a circular economy. The ideal scenario for sustainable development would be to make a transition toward an eco-circular economy.

Land Use Conflicts Assessment in Xiamen, China under Multiple Scenarios

The accelerated urbanization process has resulted in increasingly prominent conflicts in land resource utilization and caused numerous ecological and environmental issues. Simulating the evolutionary patterns of land use conflicts (LUCs) is the foundation for promoting sustainable land use. The Markov and GeoSOS-FLUS models were used to predict the land use patterns under three different development scenarios, and to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUCs in Xiamen, China in 2030. Results showed the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, land use/cover in Xiamen has changed substantially, with an increase of 6.93% in area of construction land and a decrease of 5.40% in area of cropland. (2) In the natural development scenario, the area of construction land in Xiamen is projected to increase, while the areas of cropland and other land types reduce. In the policy intervention scenario, the area of cropland continues increasing and the growth of construction land is effectively controlled. Under the sustainable development scenario, cropland, grassland, and wetlands of high quality that serve important ecological functions have been effectively protected. (3) LUCs in Xiamen differ greatly under the three scenarios in 2030. The sustainable development scenario (SDS) balances the land use needs of both socio-economic development and regional ecological security with the least LUCs, which could be an optimum solution for the long-term sustainable development in Xiamen. The results of this study provide support for decisions about eco-city construction and geospatial planning.

Assessing the impact of groundwater abstractions on aquifer depletion in the Cauvery Delta, India

Many of the world’s deltas are highly productive areas for agriculture as well as important places of socio-economic development but are currently under stress. This study assesses the impacts of stresses on groundwater pumping, changing cropping patterns, and saltwater intrusion on groundwater resources in the Cauvery Delta in Tamil Nadu, India. A transient groundwater flow model of the delta was constructed for this assessment. The historical changes in groundwater resources in response to decreasing irrigation canal flows and increasing groundwater abstractions were assessed for the past 30 years. Furthermore, the model was used to formulate and analyze future sustainable groundwater development scenarios. Farmers’ narratives about a drying delta, as they experience water scarcity and quality issues most closely, were ascertained in the research. Farmers have abandoned many shallow wells in their fields. The model simulation shows groundwater levels are decreasing and aquifer storage depleting. Furthermore, salinization has increased, with continuous declining groundwater levels in the deep aquifer from 1990 to 2019. A more robust hydro-chemical assessment and further modeling of seawater intrusion are needed to better assess the sources and distribution of groundwater salinity. The pathway for future sustainability requires enhancing groundwater recharge in the shallow aquifer and controlling groundwater abstraction in the deep aquifers.

Road Network Research Towards Sustainable Development of the Metropolitan Area

The article presents the analysis of a road network section located in Timiryazevsky District of Northern Administrative District of Moscow. Following the survey, traffic organisation characteristics were obtained, as well as the data on pedestrian flows, traffic density, operational features of public transport and zoning of the area adjacent to the object of study in terms of its use. The obtained results represent the main input parameters for simulation modelling that allows assessing different scenarios for sustainable development of the territory.

Carbon Footprint Assessment of Hydrogen and Steel

Hydrogen has the potential to decarbonize a variety of energy-intensive sectors, including steel production. Using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, the state of the art is given for current hydrogen production with a focus on the hydrogen carbon footprint. Beside the state of the art, the outlook on different European scenarios up to the year 2040 is presented. A case study of the transformation of steel production from coal-based towards hydrogen- and electricity-based metallurgy is presented. Direct reduction plants with integrated electric arc furnaces enable steel production, which is almost exclusively based on hydrogen and electricity or rather on electricity alone, if hydrogen stems from electrolysis. Thus, an integrated steel site has a demand of 4.9 kWh of electric energy per kilogram of steel. The carbon footprint of steel considering a European sustainable development scenario concerning the electricity mix is 0.75 kg CO2eq/kg steel in 2040. From a novel perspective, a break-even analysis is given comparing the use of natural gas and hydrogen using different electricity mixes. The results concerning hydrogen production presented in this paper can also be transferred to application fields other than steel.

Risk assessment of urban rainstorm flood disaster based on land use/land cover simulation

AbstractUnder the urbanization context, land use/land cover (LULC) changes rapidly which affects both the probability of urban flood disaster and its consequence. In order to explore the impact of LULC changes on rainstorm flood disaster risk in the future, a framework of rainstorm flood disaster risk assessment is constructed from natural‐social perspective through LULC simulation based on the patch‐generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in this study. Specifically, the spatial LULC under three future development scenarios (inertia development scenario, economic priority scenario and sustainable development scenario) for the year 2030 is simulated, and then assessment model of rainstorm flood disaster risk is constructed through obtaining inundation depth and social vulnerability based on simulated LULC. Jingdezhen City in China is selected as an example. The results show that proposed risk assessment framework based on PLUS model can be used to detect the risk changes in different development scenarios. The risk of urban rainstorm flood disaster under economic priority scenario is most severe and risk under the sustainable development scenario is the lowest under the same return period rainstorm. Under the sustainable development scenario, green land including forest land, grassland and open water increases, which reduces the surface runoff and decrease the risk of rainstorm flood disaster effectively, however the reduction is limited with the greater rainstorm return period. Therefore, adaptive measures should be implemented together with land use planning to prevent and control urban flood risk. This study provides a framework to predict the future risk of urban rainstorm flood under different development scenarios, which can support for flood disaster risk prevention and urban sustainable development.

A new method combining BIM and GIS data to optimise the sustainability of new construction projects in Switzerland

The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development relies on national municipalities to successfully implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Research indicates many of the SDG are related directly or indirectly to activities in the construction industry. Achieving the SDG requires instruments which are able to digitally model various sustainable development scenarios. However, it is still unclear exactly what has to be modelled and how. This paper presents initial findings from the GEOBIM project. The aim was to investigate and show the extent to which it is possible to support the optimisation of the sustainability of construction projects by using BIM and GIS data. A major problem with today’s construction projects is that too often sustainability and digitization are still viewed as two separate topics. This is due to industry uncertainty about to what extent it is possible to benefit from synergies between the two areas. The Swiss certification system developed by the SGNI (Swiss Sustainable Building Council) is used as the basis for the analysis. The system is divided into 7 groups of criteria, with 22 individual topics. The criteria cover the most important sustainability aspects, including key topics, e.g., sustainable development, life cycle management and digitization. A total of 343 indicators are evaluated. The GEOBIM project includes a demonstrator where it is possible to explore and show exemplarily, how the sustainability criteria of the international DGNB system can be supported to a large extent by BIM and GIS data. The findings will be used to develop a new method, which allows a systematic analysis and use of existing BIM and GIS data to optimise the sustainability of construction projects. One of the key findings from combining existing BIM and GIS data is that it allowed a variety of sustainability aspects to be more easily visualised and understood. The corresponding possibilities can be demonstrated exemplarily using the example of the demonstration project. Virtual and augmented reality technologies enable exploring new and innovative ways to improve the design of buildings with respect to sustainability. An example is the visualization of a large number of sustainability aspects as part of the planning process. This enables clients to check and control at an early stage, whether the planned building really supports their specific needs and meets sustainability and other user requirements. The results illustrate the use of BIM- and GIS-data for the optimization and visualization of the sustainability of buildings as part of certification processes, which make digital planning valuable in the long term. In order to achieve a multifactorial optimisation of the sustainability of real estate also requires a high level of understanding of the complexity in the planning-accompanying processes. The project specifically shows how an efficient and sustainable combination of the two methods is possible within the framework of Lean Planning and Construction Management. This is highly relevant and will be absolutely necessary in the future in order to be able to significantly reduce the economic costs of sustainability certification through the intelligent use of this new methods and the resulting synergies.

Land Use Carbon Emission Measurement and Risk Zoning under the Background of the Carbon Peak: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Land use and cover change (LUCC) has a non-negligible impact on both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Based on the analysis of land use dynamics in Shandong Province, this study simulates land use changes in Shandong Province in 2030 under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), classifies the risk level of carbon emissions in Shandong Province using the Land Use Carbon Emission (LUCE) risk indexes, and compares the differences between the risk level regions under NDS and SDS. This study shows that under the influence of LUCC, the carbon emissions in Shandong province increased significantly, from 90.5591 million tons in 2000 to 493.538 million tons in 2020, with urban land being the main source of carbon emissions, which increased from 90.0757 million tons in 2000 to 490.139 million tons in 2020. The main source of the increase in urban land was cropland. The LUCE was positively correlated with urban land area. The LUCE of SDS was 7.2423 million tons less than that of NDS. From 2000 to 2020, the risk areas of LUCE in Shandong province were mainly no-risk and mild-risk areas. The number of moderate-risk areas and high-risk areas of SDS was less than that of NDS. The rational organization of land use is important for Shandong Province to achieve low-carbon development.

Effect difference of climate change and urbanization on extreme precipitation over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Increasing extreme precipitation caused by climate change and human activities may have severe consequences on people's lives and property. In this study, the effect difference of urbanization, climate change and their compound effect on the annual and seasonal extreme precipitation under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are investigated using a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting model in the mega urban agglomeration. The enhancement effects of urbanization and climate change on extreme precipitation are also compared in the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) periods of various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) emission scenarios. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), a subtropical coastal world-class urban agglomeration in China, is taken as a representative in this study. The results indicate that, annual extreme and total precipitation will be more intensive and more frequent at regional scale along with rising long-lived greenhouse gas (LLGHG) concentration, while future urbanization exacerbates precipitation at local scale. Urban-induced total precipitation increases in the downwind areas and some urban areas of urban agglomeration, but still slightly decreases (all below 1.5%) over the entire study area. And more robust and stronger urban-induced signal in extreme precipitation characteristic is found in and around the urban areas where the total precipitation increases, as seen with an increase of >20% in amount and day number. In the compound scenarios, the interaction between urban and LLGHGs on precipitation was nonlinear and can be better explored by using convective permitting simulations. While urbanization can amplify or dampen local to regional precipitation, increased concentration of LLGHGs still make regional precipitation shift toward a general enhancement. Urbanization still has an impact on spatial distribution of precipitation despite a warming background climate. Additionally, seasonal heterogeneity of precipitation will be enhanced in all the future scenarios, especially in the future urbanization scenarios. The enhancement of urbanization (increase by about 42.1%, 38.0%, 14.0% in the precipitation amount, days and intensity respectively) on summer extreme precipitation change is greater than that of low-level LLGHG concentration (same as above, but increase by about 38.7%, 35.4%, 13.4%), despite their different mechanisms in altering extreme precipitation. The dominant factor of extreme precipitation varies with urbanization level and the LLGHG concentration. More attention should be paid to urban-induced precipitation changes under sustainable development scenarios with low-level LLGHG concentration.