Simulation of wetland carbon storage in coastal cities under the coupled framework of socio-economic and ecological sustainability: A case study of Dongying city

Abstract

Wetlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, and wetland protection is an important way to achieve carbon neutrality and synergistic benefits between humans and ecosystems in China. However, most of the previous studies lack the influencing factors and driving paths of wetland carbon storage (WCS) from the perspective of coupled systems. Based on the SD-PLUS-InVEST coupling model and the socio-economic and ecological sustainability (SEES) coupling framework, this paper reveals the driving-feedback mechanism of wetland areas (WAs) from 2005 to 2060, and realizes the dynamic monitoring of WAs and a detailed assessment of WCS in Dongying city. The results show the following: WAs have a positive feedback relationship with the water resources and ecosystem service (ES) subsystems but a negative feedback relationship with the population and economic subsystems. The business as usual (BAU) scenario led to a malignant transformation of natural wetlands (NWs)-artificial wetlands (AWs)-production land (PL), increasing WCS by expanding AWs. The coordinated sustainable development (CSD) scenario created a virtuous PL-AW-NW transformation, increasing 421,700 tons of WCS compared with BAU. This study holds great significance for the protection, restoration, and sustainable development of wetland resources in coastal cities.