Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Abstract

Anticipated sea level rises from global climate change pose a significant flood risk to urban land. Evaluating urban land suitability under sea level rise scenarios is crucial for promoting sustainable development. Recent research has advanced the application of artificial intelligence and the integration of GIS with models, yet the impact of climate change on land suitability has often been overlooked. This study focuses on Xihu District in Hangzhou, utilizing the entropy weight and matter-element model to evaluate land suitability for urban development. The evaluation results were cross-verified with land use plans. A comprehensive analysis of potential flood risk to urban land in 2100 was conducted, considering varying degrees of sea level rise under Sustainable Development Scenario SSP1-2.6 and High-end Emission Scenario SSP5-8.5, as well as the scenario reflecting the most severe sea level rise during extreme climate events. The results indicate that more than half of the land in the study area is suitable for construction, aligning spatially with the current planned urban land. The analysis process of the matter-element model reflects the impact level of each indicator on urban land suitability, conveying information both spatially and numerically, thus enhancing accuracy. Scenario analysis reveals that approximately 10% to 20% of urban land in the study area could face flooding threats due to future sea level rises, primarily in the northern and southeastern regions. Recommendations for future land development and spatial planning strategies to address flood risk are discussed, aiming to alleviate the pressure on urban land in response to future climate change.