Structure Of Agricultural Production Research Articles

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ НА РИСКА ПРИ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕНИТЕ СТРУКТУРИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ – РЕАЛНОСТИ, ПРОБЛЕМИ И ВЪЗМОЖНОСТИ

Agriculture is Bulgaria's oldest and most traditional industry. It has gone through many processes that have shaped and help explain its current state. In the recent past, the return of land to its owners has had a strong impact on farms and their development. In Bulgaria, risk management in agricultural production structures is a relatively new issue with great potential for development. The aim of the study is to assess the realities, problems and opportunities in risk management within the production structures of Bulgarian agriculture. A PESTEL analysis was carried out, and the results confirm the hypothesis that agriculture is a high-risk sector with elements that are dynamic.

Assessment of natural and anthropogenic impacts of the Irganay Hydroelectric Power Station reservoir zone on eco‐ and geosystems using remote sensing data, Dagestan, Russia

Aim. The research and mapping of natural object dynamics using aerial and satellite imagery is one of the long‐established and actively developing fields of remote sensing and geographic research. The current phase is characterised by the wide availability of remote sensing data processing software, which offers almost unlimited possibilities for transforming and integrating datasets from different periods.Material and Methods. For the effective use of archival maps in studying territorial dynamics, two interconnected factors are critical: the date of the map’s creation and the positional accuracy of the mapped objects. The materials used in this study were TM/Landsat satellite images from the periods 2002–2017 and 2006–2014.Results. Reservoirs with a surface area of up to 60–70 km² and a volume of up to 250 million m³ increase absolute air humidity by 10–15 %. In areas with a hot climate, the impact of a reservoir on air humidity is even more pronounced.Conclusions. The anticipated significant changes in the microclimate are expected to affect the structure of agricultural production in the Irganay valley and in the villages of Maidanskoye, Untsukul, and Gimry, particularly through changes in precipitation distribution during the growing season.

Multifunctional evaluation and multiscenario regulation of non-grain farmlands from the grain security perspective: Evidence from the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

Non-grain production (NGP) represents a complex social phenomenon driven by a range of interests that involve agricultural development, livelihood security, and ecological preservation. It significantly alters the structure of agricultural production and vegetation cover, influencing regional grain supply and the multifunctional composition of agriculture. To achieve sustainable development goals related to grain supply and ecological stability, this study proposes a research framework for multifunctional evaluation and multiscenario regulation of non-grain farmlands (NGFs). First, NGFs in the Wuhan metropolitan area (WHM) were extracted based on land survey data to carry out multifunctional evaluation of NGFs, including production function, ecological functions and recreational function. Second, the SOM+K-means algorithm is used to identify and explore the multifunctional bundle characteristics of NGFs to determine the regulation priority order of NGFs. Finally, a multiscenario simulation of the rigid control scale and layout arrangement of NGFs from the grain security perspective is carried out. The research results show that (1) there are 1294.34 thousand ha of NGFs in the WHM, mainly of grain and non-grain rotation type (52.36 %). The production function is higher in the central and western Jianghan Plain areas than in the northeastern and southern hilly mountainous areas; the ecological functions are the opposite; the high-value areas of recreational function are mainly located around the built-up areas of the city. (2) Multifunctional bundles divide NGFs into seven categories and determine the order of regulation based on the principle of "production priority, functional diversity". (3) By setting different grain security scenarios, it is predicted that the rigid control scale of NGFs in the WHM in 2030 is 256.08–797.55 thousand ha. Divide and restore grain production in order of the priority zone for grain production, the reserve zone for grain production, the resilience zone for grain production, the ecological improvement zone and the agricultural improvement zone, so as to achieve a regulatory layout of strict control and adaptable regulation of NGFs. The research supports the regulation of NGFs in balancing grain security and ecological stability to promote sustainable agricultural production.

The Impact Armed Conflict on Economic Growth and Sustainability in South Sudan

Purpose: The study aimed to explore the multifaceted impact of armed conflict on economic growth and sustainability in South Sudan. It sought to understand how the conflict has hindered the country's development and prosperity by examining the complex relationship between armed conflict and economic decline. Methodology: A qualitative approach was utilized, employing thematic analysis to gather and analyze data from various sources, including reports by international organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, and UN, as well as government publications and peer-reviewed journals. This method identified key themes and trends related to the economic impact of the conflict. Findings: The study revealed that the prolonged armed conflict in South Sudan has severely compromised economic stability. Key findings include the destruction of infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals, which impeded economic activities, disrupted supply chains, and increased transportation costs, with rebuilding costs exceeding USD 1 billion. The conflict resulted in significant loss of life, injuries, and displacement, reducing the available workforce and diminishing productivity, leading to an estimated annual economic loss of USD 4 billion. The displacement of over 3.8 million people disrupted local economies, agricultural production, and social structures, causing economic losses of USD 2.5 billion annually due to reduced agricultural output. The conflict also led to a decline in GDP, high unemployment rates, and unsustainable economic practices, with the economy's dependence on oil exports increasing vulnerability to price fluctuations and disruptions. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study recommends prioritizing the restoration and rebuilding of critical infrastructure to revive economic activities and supply chains. It also suggests the implementation of policies to support displaced populations, enhance agricultural productivity, and diversify the economy away from oil dependency to reduce vulnerability. The study contributes to theory by providing a deeper understanding of the relationship between conflict and economic decline, and it offers practical insights for policymakers and international organizations on the necessary interventions to foster economic recovery and sustainable development in post-conflict settings. Additionally, the findings underscore the importance of comprehensive peacebuilding strategies that address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term economic stabilization and growth.

Treatment of functional disorders of gastrointestinal tract of calves with complex phytomineral preparation

Significant economic losses due to diarrhoea morbidity in newborn young animals lead to a decrease in the profitability of the sector in the structure of agricultural production. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to create and investigate the therapeutic effect of application of complex phytomineral preparation using local components: opoka of Taskala deposit and decoction of camelthorn (Alhagi maurorum) for treatment of diarrhoea in calves. The therapeutic effect of the preparation was studied in the conditions of dairy farm in Kyzylorda region on 5-7-day-old calves. The effect of the preparation was studied in a comparative aspect with an analogous preparation of imported production and the results obtained from healthy animals. Clinical, haematological, and biochemical methods of investigation were employed. The findings obtained suggest a high therapeutic effect of the created preparation. Its application allowed reducing the duration of the treatment period by 5-7 days compared to the imported preparation and restoring the positive dynamics of average daily gain as early as on the 5th day after the start of treatment. Haematological studies indicate stimulation of the immune system in animals that was manifested by a 14% increase in the count of lymphocytes and a 37% increase in the proteins of the γ-globulin fraction compared to healthy animals. These indices suggest an increase in the activity of the humoral part of the immune system in animals after treatment with the preparation. Another positive therapeutic effect of the preparation was observed in the protective effect on the liver of diseased animals. Despite the present effect of both preparations, the decrease in the activity of markers characterising hepatocyte destruction was higher with the Kazakh preparation. Thus, the created preparation is characterised by a higher therapeutic effect in comparison with the imported preparation and allow recommending it for treatment and prevention of diarrhoea in young animals

The role and place of big data in official agricultural statistics

The agro-industrial sector, like other industries, is increasingly data-driven and data-analytical. From crop selection to assessing consumer food preferences, data is collected at every stage of the agricultural chain. The huge amounts of data collected and processed have already fundamentally changed the structure and efficiency of various agricultural production and supply systems. Modern digital technologies are being actively introduced into agriculture, from laboratory conditions to open and protected fields. The use of machine learning tools, robotics and big data technologies significantly transforms and optimizes not only production processes, but also methodological approaches for scientific research. The results of the study suggest that the use of big data sources in addition to statistical observations helps to reduce the burden on respondents, which is an important task for national statistical services.

Macrogenomics-Based Analysis of the Effects of Intercropped Soybean Photosynthetic Characteristics and Nitrogen-Assimilating Enzyme Activities on Yield at Different Nitrogen Levels.

Currently, China's soybean self-sufficiency rate is only 15%, highlighting the soybean crisis and the supply chain risks that pose a major threat to China's food security. Thus, it has become imperative to step up efforts to boost soybean production capacity while promoting the green and sustainable development of regional farmland ecosystems. In this context, the present study comprehensively investigated the effects of intercropping and nitrogen application rate on soybean yield, as well as the changes in gradients generated by different levels of nitrogen application. Based on six consecutive years of maize-soybean intercropping planting patterns, the inter-root soils of soybeans were collected at the flowering stage and evaluated for soil nitrogen content, nitrogen-assimilating enzyme activities, and microbial community composition of soybean, which were correlated with yield, to clarify the main pathways and modes of intercropping effects. The N2 level (80 kg·ha-1) was favourable for higher yield. In comparison to monocropping, the intercropping reduced yield by 9.65-13.01%, photosynthetic characteristics by 1.33-7.31%, and plant nitrogen-assimilating enzyme activities by 8.08-32.01% at the same level of N application. Likewise, soil urease and catalase activities were reduced by 9.22 and 1.80%, while soil nitrogen content declined by an average of 6.38%. Gemmatimonas and Bradyrhizobium enrichment significantly increased soil nitrogen content, photosynthetic characteristics, and soybean yield, while it was reduced by Candidatus_Udaeobacter and Candidatus_Solibacte enrichment. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for further optimising maize-soybean intercropping, which is crucial for enhancing the agricultural production structure and improving the overall soybean production capacity.

Foreign trade of organic products in the context of sustainable development

Methods. In the course of study, the following methods were used: analysis and synthesis – when determining the place of production of organic agricultural products in the general industry structure of Ukraine, as well as highlighting the main advantages of the development of organic agriculture in the Ukrainian economy in the context of ensuring sustainability; system approach – when establishing the relationship between organic production and achieving the goals of sustainable development; general and specific – when clarifying the specifics of trade in organic products on foreign markets in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development; statistical methods - when creating ratings of countries importing organic products in the EU. Results. The essence of the global concept of sustainable development is revealed and the position of Ukraine in achieving its goals in comparison with other European countries is determined. The place of organic products in the general structure of agricultural products is determined. The specific features of the formation of demand for organic products in the domestic market of Ukraine and the factors that determine it in foreign markets are analyzed. The dynamics of sales volumes of Ukrainian organic products on foreign markets, in particular the countries of the European Union, are shown. The ranking of the TOP 10 countries importing organic products of Ukrainian production to the European Union in 2022 is presented. Novelty. The relationship between organic production and the achievement of the goals of sustainable development was established. The advantages of the development of organic agriculture in the Ukrainian economy in the context of ensuring sustainability were determined. Practical value. The analysis of the volume of trade in organic products in the context of sustainability allows determining the priority directions for improving the trade balance of Ukraine and its promotion on the path to achieving the goals of sustainable development.

NOSOLOGICAL FEATURES OF INFECTIOUS ABORTIONS IN COWS

Providing the country's population with high-quality products is a priority task of modern animal husbandry. However, there are a number of problems in the industry that prevent obtaining quality products of animal origin in the required volume. The intensification of dairy farming and the increase in milk productivity of cows is often accompanied by a metabolic disorder, which reduces the body's resistance, contributing to the development of immune-deficiencies, which increase the susceptibility of animals to infectious diseases, some of which have an abortive form of manifestation and, accordingly, the consequence is a lack of offspring and potential income due to abortions. Abortion in cows should be considered not only as a gynecological problem, but also as an economic one, because animal husbandry accounts for more than 38% in the structure of gross agricultural products of the country and the lack of keeping of young animals significantly affects the development of the livestock industry. This publication is devoted to the results of the nosological profile of infectious abortions in cows on the territory of Ukraine, among which 64% of cases are infectious agents - 41.4% of bacterial origin and 22.6% of viral origin. The most frequent factors of bacterial etiology of abortions in cows are leptospira, coxiella, salmonella, mycoplasma, campylobacter, chlamydia, toxoplasma and listeria, and the most common viral ones are flavo-virus, gamma-herpesvirus and alpha-herpesvirus.

The efficiency assessment of budgetary fund implementation in agro-industrial complex

In recent years, the agro-industrial complex has emerged as a crucial sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan, playing a pivotal role in ensuring the nation's food security. State support for agriculture constitutes a multifaceted mechanism encompassing measures that influence the income of agricultural industries, the structure and scale of agricultural production, the agri-food market, and the social fabric of rural areas. Financial resources are allocated from budgets at various administrative levels to support the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan. The primary objective is to assess the efficient utilization of budget funds allocated to the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan. A combination of economic-statistical, estimated-comparative, logical, and analytical analysis methods was employed to achieve this goal. The results reveal that a targeted agricultural policy, coupled with effective state regulation mechanisms, enables the attainment of high levels of productivity and efficiency in this industry. Nevertheless, despite these successes, the current role of the agro-industrial complex in shaping the economy is deemed insufficient. This is evidenced by indicators assessing the sector's contribution to macroeconomic benchmarks. In conclusion, an evaluation of the current state of development in the Republic of Kazakhstan's agricultural industry reflects a positive growth trend in recent years. However, the agricultural sector continues to be among the less profitable segments of the domestic economy, grappling with persistent challenges that have yet to be fully overcome.

Management and Marketing of the Wartime Agribusiness in Ukraine

Introduction. Full-scale military actions led to the need for radical changes in the management of agricultural enterprises. Effective management of Ukrainian agribusiness under conditions of military aggression can contribute to the stability of revenues to the country's budget and strengthen national security, particularly in providing the population with food and jobs in depressed rural regions. The state of war in Ukraine determines the peculiarities of the activities of agricultural enterprises and, accordingly, forms the peculiarities of agricultural management, which requires scientific research.
 Aim and tasks. The study aims to develop directions and tools for managing agricultural enterprises in the conditions of war in Ukraine. The task of the study was to develop a mathematical model of operational change in the goal of an agro-enterprise, establish conditions for changing agribusiness goals, determine wartime requirements for agribusiness management, and assess the impact of the war on the components of the resource potential of agricultural enterprises.
 Results. A mathematical model of the operative change in the purpose of an agro-enterprise under the conditions of acquisition of integral risks, including the risk of military operations, of a degree greater than 50%, has been developed. The study of the components of the resource potential established the following: the growth of the dynamism of the land market, the acceleration of the redistribution of land ownership - the alienated area of land in 2023 compared to 2022 has almost doubled; the share of individual entrepreneurs in the total number increased by 19.8% in 2022; a decrease in the level of provision of labour resources, which has long-term and short-term dimensions related to military operations, reducing the volume of imports of agricultural machinery by approximately 30–35%. The implementation of effective management requires a comprehensive approach to the formation of systemic prerequisites for agricultural activity and the improvement of the structure of agricultural production, taking into account the impact of the war in Ukraine.
 Conclusions. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to change the goals of agricultural enterprises in an operational manner and form an appropriate level of competitiveness to ensure the viability of agricultural enterprises. The proposed directions and management tools of agricultural enterprises will ensure an increase in the efficiency of agribusiness management during wartime conditions. Evaluation of the impact of the war on the components of the resource potential of agricultural enterprises will increase the efficiency of resource use.

Assessing the environmental impact of agricultural production structure transformation — Evidence from the non-grain production of cropland in China

Achieving low-carbon agricultural development is a requirement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A sustainable agricultural production structure not only ensures food security but also promotes efficient resource utilization and environmental protection. However, the current research has not yet assessed the environmental impact of the agricultural production structure transformation, particularly in relation to the non-grain production of cropland (NGPC). By calculating the carbon emission intensity (CEI) and NGPC in 338 cities across China from 2000 to 2021, this study analyzes their spatiotemporal characteristics. A Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model has been used to assess the environmental impact of the agricultural production structure transformation. The findings show a spatial correlation between NGPC and CEI, and the NGPC will exacerbate the CEI. In addition, variations exist in the impact of different grain production functional areas. The NGPC in the Production and Sales Balance Area (PSBA) and the Major Grain Production Area (MGPA) have led to an increase in the CEI, while the Major Grain Sales Area (MGSA) has had a contrasting impact. Assessing the environmental impact of agricultural production structure transformation at the city level can offer valuable insights for achieving sustainable transformation.

Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Production Type and Traffic on Nitrogen Oxide Emissions

The protection of air from pollution is one of the basic principles of sustainable development, and this article analyzes the joint impact of various types of agricultural production and traffic on nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. The goal of this research is the development of a new methodology for assessing the combined impact of different types of agricultural production, traffic load, and traffic flow structure on the emission of nitrogen oxides. For the analysis of the joint impact of traffic and agricultural production, a new impact assessment methodology was developed, which is based on two selected impact prediction models. The following two models were used to predict the impact: the BioGrace model and the microsimulation model VISSIM. The developed methodology was applied to a case study in real field conditions. The results showed that the difference in the emission of NOx gases, depending on the type of agricultural production, indicates a reduction in NOx emissions in the walnut–winter-wheat system by 30%, compared to the production of winter wheat in an open field. The statistical analysis showed that there is no statistically significant difference between NOx emissions for different vehicle arrival scenarios for the same traffic load. The results of the joint impact show that the lowest NOx emission was found in walnut orchards and counted traffic. In this example, the difference between the one-hour emission load of three different agricultural types of production and traffic is not large; however, in the cumulative load, it can lead to significant differences. Emphasizing the importance of adopting new agricultural practices and the impact of traffic and the share of freight and heavy goods vehicles in agricultural production, we position them as a proactive and sustainable response to the critical ecological and agricultural challenges highlighted in European and Croatian policy.

The future of agriculture and agricultural policy: perceptions of non-farmers and farmers

We examined the views of Finnish non-farmers and farmers on the desirable future developments of agriculture and agricultural policy using principal component and cluster analysis by focusing on three key themes: the structure of agricultural production, agri-environmental issues, and the funding of agriculture. There is strong public support for maintaining the viability of domestic agriculture through government intervention, but views differ on allocation of agricultural support and how agricultural production should be developed. A significant number of respondents supported the idea that climate and other environmental issues should be better considered in agricultural policy. However, about half of the respondents accepted environmental damage caused by agriculture and one-fifth perceived the importance of agriculture in a society as declining. These views, not prominent in the public debate, emphasize the importance of regular investigation of citizen opinions for including all the relevant stands in policy discussion to design legitimate policy measures.

Realization of the potential of diversification of agricultural business to reduce the risks of sustainable development

The deepening of the global problems of human development requires new approaches to solving the strategic tasks of further existence. With this approach, under modern conditions, the concept of sustainable development appears, with the help of which it is possible to ensure the achievement of the goals of sustainable development of national economies and society. Agriculture is the primary sector of Ukraine's national economy, and the state of development largely determines the economic growth rate. In recent years, many problematic issues have accumulated in the agricultural sector, which requires intensifying the diversification processes of economic activity. The article identifies the principal risks and problems that can be solved based on directions for expanding the diversification of agrarian business, among them optimizing the sectoral balance, increasing the rationality and environmental friendliness of the use of natural resources, restoring biodiversity, reviving the human resources potential of rural areas and mitigating the consequences of inclusive gaps between rural and urban areas of the country. The composition of the potential for diversification of economic activity of agrarian business entities based on sustainable development is substantiated. Among the main elements proposed are food security, climate neutrality and preservation of biological resources, inclusiveness of development of rural areas, and economic opportunities. The analysis of the production structure of agriculture showed the dominance of crop production and a decrease in the share of livestock production. Based on the results of the conducted research, it is proposed to consider the diversification of agrarian business as a way of restoring and ensuring the biodiversity of crops and animals, which is based on the principles of rational use of bioresource agricultural potential to achieve the goals of sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas. The fundamental principles of diversification of economic activities of agricultural enterprises based on sustainable development were defined as eco-tolerance of agricultural production, food sufficiency, inclusiveness, achievement of sectoral balance of agricultural production, efficiency, improvement of the level of well-being and quality of the country's population. Keywords: diversification, agriculture, rural areas, development, opportunities.

Status of Sino–Russian Trade in Agricultural Products: Dual Consideration Based on Characteristics and Growth

The security of agricultural product supply is crucial for social development. For populous and resource-rich countries like China and Russia, strengthening their bilateral trade in agricultural products is essential to ensure stability and security in the global food market. However, current research on their agricultural product trade lacks sufficient detail. This article aims to analyze the overall trend of agricultural product trading between China and Russia based on trade data from 2007 to 2021. Different trade indexes will be used to examine the four aspects of the agricultural product trade characteristics of both countries. The constant market share model will be employed to analyze the growth factors of agricultural product trade between the two nations, providing insights into the driving force behind changes in agricultural exports. The findings of this study demonstrate that bilateral agricultural trade between China and Russia shows complementarity and high trade intensity. Intra-industry trade represents the primary form of agricultural product exchange, while inter-industry trade serves as a supplemental form of trade. In terms of trade growth impact, the bilateral agricultural trade between China and Russia is primarily influenced by the effect of product structure, followed by competitiveness. Therefore, in the face of uncertain situations, such as counter-globalization and localized trade frictions, specific recommendations will be provided to optimize the trade structure of agricultural products between the two nations.

Permanences and changes in the production structure of agriculture in Parana, 2006-2017

Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a dinâmica das mudanças na estrutura produtiva da agropecuária do Estado do Paraná a partir das informações dos Censos Agropecuários de 2006 e 2017. Foram utilizadas as análises multivariadas, fatorial e cluster, para caracterizar as mudanças temporais e espaciais, considerando vinte indicadores da modernização da agropecuária associados ao uso da terra, tecnificação e capitalização, mão de obra e condição do produtor e dos estabelecimentos. Os resultados da pesquisa evidenciam transformações significativas na agropecuária do Estado do Paraná, mas que ainda privilegiam as tradicionais tendências do país, com expansão da agropecuária voltada para exportação e redução da agricultura familiar, a qual ainda absorve a maior parcela da ocupação no meio rural.

Digital and engineering solutions for the intensive development of regional agricultural producers

The article examines the structure of agricultural production in the Tyumen region; the authors note that agrarians in the south of the Tyumen region have to work in a zone of risky farming, sharp fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In such conditions, farmers specializing in the production of crop products have to use intensive, resource-saving and modern industrial technological solutions in the production process to increase labor productivity and output per unit of land area. The authors noted the practical implementation of digital solutions used in large agricultural enterprises. There has been a trend of active development in the region of the production area for growing fruit crops, restoring nurseries and fruit trees. In this regard, the authors propose to introduce an installation for watering and fertilizing fruit trees, which is a very relevant technological solution for farmers; calculations of the financial model of this installation are presented, which presents the main economic indicators from its implementation.

The Impact of Agricultural Insurance on Planting Structure Adjustment—An Empirical Study from Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Agricultural insurance is a risk management tool developed to guarantee regional production and national food security. Based on survey data from 629 households in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, China, this paper examines the impact of agricultural insurance on farmers’ planting structure. The results show that: (1) Farmers’ participation in agricultural insurance significantly affects their planting structure, especially lowering the level of specialization in production; insured households are about 3–6% lower than the non-insured, and there is a complementary effect between insurance participation and diversified planting. (2) For different types of farmers, participating in insurance has different effects on their agricultural production structure. Farmers purchasing insurance with low or medium levels in proportion to agricultural income significantly reduce the degree of production specialization. The effect of participation in insurance on large-scale farmers’ adjustment of planting structure is more obvious. For pure grain farmers, participation in insurance will reduce planting specialization by about 3–4%. (3) Participation in agricultural insurance will encourage farmers to plant grain crops, but the effect is small. Therefore, we need to expand the coverage areas, increase insurance types, and improve coverage levels; the products should be more targeted and differentiated, strengthening farmers’ participation in complete cost insurance and income insurance.

Impacts of in situ urbanisation on grain production: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China

With the promotion of county-level urban–rural integrated development policies in China, counties in economically developed regions have achieved sound in situ urbanisation (ISU), resulting in changes in regional population and production structures. However, to date, relatively few studies have focused on the ISU process and the variation in regional grain production in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). This study evaluated the ISU rate (ISUR) at the county level using the entropy based TOPSIS model, introduced a super efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model to calculate cropland production efficiency (CPE), and reflected the status of grain production from grain yield and CPE. Spatio-temporal dynamics of ISU and grain production were examined from 2000 to 2020, and the impact mechanism of ISU on the grain production were explored encompassing regional differences and spatiotemporal evolution. The ISUR of the YRD showed a high distribution in the east and low in the west, with all counties showing a continuous increase, and an average increase from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.33 in 2020. The most rapid increases occurred in northern Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, and the coastal areas. The grain yield in the entire region was high in the north and low in the south, with a continuous increase in the north and a continuous decrease in the south. The CPE distribution changed from high in the south in 2000 to high in the north in 2020, with a higher growth rate in the north and a significant decrease in the south. The initial advancement of ISU promoted grain production. The plains with medium ISU levels showed the highest grain yield and CPE. Where the ISU level reached extremely high levels, it had a suppressive effect on grain production. In mountainous areas, the CPE and grain yield decreased during ISU. The findings of this study are of great value to policymakers in adjusting the regional agricultural production structure according to ISU stages to implement food security strategies in a regionally integrated manner.