Significant Interdecadal Variability Research Articles

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Rapid Intensification Magnitude of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs), which refers to an explosive increase of TC intensity exceeding a certain threshold [e.g., 30 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) in 24 h] within a short time period, poses a great challenge to both forecasting and disaster prevention efforts. Recent studies have documented a significant increase in the magnitude of TC RI (RIM; measured as the mean intensification rate of all TC RI records in a TC season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1979, and have attributed it to the impacts of global warming. In this study, results from statistical analyses show that the TC RIM over the WNP during 1951–2021 exhibits significant interdecadal variability, which is found to be closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that the response of the local thermodynamic conditions to the AMO plays a dominant role in shaping this relationship. The positive AMO phase fosters a high TC RIM over the WNP by producing significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which in turn enhances TC heat potential and the midtropospheric relative humidity in the main region of TC RI occurrence. Results from both data analyses and numerical model experiments demonstrate that the AMO modulates thermodynamic conditions over the WNP, such as SST and ocean heat content, by affecting local heat fluxes and the Ekman heat transport in the WNP via the modulation of Walker circulation from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Heterogeneity in Spatiotemporal Variability of High Mountain Asia's Runoff and Its Underlying Mechanisms

AbstractHigh Mountain Asia (HMA) is the headwater area for major Asian rivers, providing a vast amount of freshwater to billions of people in Asia. These rivers also make their surrounding areas highly vulnerable to destructive water‐related disasters. However, the complex spatiotemporal variability of runoff over HMA and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This study investigates into the spatial heterogeneity of HMA's runoff variability at three timescales (interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal) and the roles played by climate conditions and catchment properties. We find significant interannual and multidecadal variability of runoff in west and central HMA, and significant interdecadal variability in central and east HMA. At interannual and multidecadal timescales, the runoff variability tends to be more significant in dryer basins. The variability of runoff at the three timescales is largely controlled by climate variations, especially precipitation. The catchment properties, including groundwater storage and glacier‐snow meltwater, also play important roles in regulating the effect of precipitation. In particular, the high contributions of glacier‐snow meltwater in east HMA can weaken the response of runoff variability to precipitation at interannual and multidecadal timescales. The space‐time patterns of runoff variability over HMA are driven by atmospheric drivers including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation across timescales. The results of this study provide a better understanding of HMA's runoff variability and its physical mechanisms, which have critical implications for sustainable freshwater management and effective risk mitigation in this densely populated and ecologically vulnerable region.

Interdecadal variation of atmospheric equatorial Rossby waves during boreal summer

The interdecadal variation of summer equatorial Rossby wave (ERW) intensity and its main drivers are revealed from an analysis of interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data, and ERA5 reanalysis data. After defining an index of ERW intensity (ERWII) by the variance of symmetric ERW-band-filter OLR, results of empirical mode decomposition analysis show that the summer ERWII underwent significant interdecadal variations around 1995/1996 and 2011/2012. In the period 1996–2011, the anomalous pattern with colder SST anomalies over the central-northeastern Pacific and warmer SST anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean caused stronger pressure gradients through the Gill–Matsuno mechanism. The anomalies of the zonal pressure gradient in the northeastern Pacific–North Atlantic oceans and meridional pressure gradients in the tropical eastern Pacific and tropical eastern Indian Ocean–western Pacific tended to enhance the ERWs by exciting convergence anomalies around the same regions. In the periods 1979–1995 and 2012–2021, the opposite conditions happened. Results of modeled sensitivity experiments confirm the associated physical processes driving this variation. Our findings will advance understanding of extreme weather or climate events in the summer with regard to the ERW variations on interdecadal time scales.

Interdecadal Pacific Variability dominated the decadal variation of cold season precipitation in arid West Asia

This study examines the interdecadal variation of cold season precipitation in arid West Asia (AWA) from 1960 to 2019 and identifies the underlying physical mechanisms. The results indicate that the precipitation in this region has exhibited significant interdecadal variation over the past 60 years, which is closely related to Interdecadal Pacific Variability (IPV). During the positive IPV phase, which was associated with a warming equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean, an eastward-propagating Rossby wave induced a negative geopotential height anomaly over AWA, providing the dynamic conditions for precipitation. Additionally, IPV caused the westerly jet to move southward and strengthen, providing rich water vapor. Moreover, a positive geopotential height anomaly over the Indo-West Pacific, caused by cold sea surface temperature, led to the upward transport of water vapor from the Northern Indian Ocean to AWA, further enhancing the water vapor conditions. These factors together resulted in excess precipitation in AWA during the positive IPV phase, with a 17.6 mm increase compared to the negative phase, accounting for approximately 12% of the cold season precipitation. These findings were also confirmed by the piControl simulation of CESM2.

Possible influence of the interdecadal variation of the extratropical southern Indian Ocean SST on East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Observations indicate that East Asian summer precipitation exhibits significant interdecadal variability, with an alternating reverse phase distribution of rainfall from south to north, which is different from the consistent increase or decrease of precipitation in the whole region. The East Asian summer monsoon mainly affects the spatial pattern of meridional tripole precipitation on the interdecadal timescale. Moreover, the interdecadal sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical southern Indian Ocean is the most significant in the boreal summer. When there is anomalous warming in the extratropical southern Indian Ocean, the Somali cross-equatorial flow weakens and then alternating positive and negative waves propagate to central East Asia. In contrast, the New Guinea cross-equatorial flow experiences interdecadal enhancement with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Philippines, which leads to a weakening of the South China Sea monsoon trough. On one hand, the cyclonic-anticyclonic coupling over the Philippines and Northwest Pacific results in an anomalous eastward transport of water vapor and reduced water vapor input over southern East Asia. On the other hand, the coupling strengthens the water vapor transport from the mid-latitude Northwest Pacific to central East Asia. These circulation anomalies favor the development of a meridional tripole pattern, i.e. a “negative – positive – negative” pattern of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation anomalies on the interdecadal timescale, which is specifically manifested in the abnormal increase of precipitation in central East Asia and the decrease of precipitation in northern and southern East Asia.

Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea: Tempo-Spatial Pattern and Its Association with Large-Scale Circulation

A marine heatwave (MHW) can significantly harm marine ecosystems and fisheries. Based on a remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) product, this study investigated MHWs behaviors in the South China Sea (SCS) throughout the warm season (May to September) from 1982 to 2020. The distributions of the three MHW indices used in this study showed significant latitudinal variations: more frequent, longer, and more intense MHWs appear in the northern SCS, and less frequent, shorter, and weaker MHWs appear in the southern SCS. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, we found that the first leading modes of the three MHW indices account for more than half of the total variance. The first leading modes reveal uniform anomalies throughout the SCS, with the maximum in the deep central portion and its surroundings. Their corresponding time series showed significant interdecadal variations, with a turning point around 2009. Since 2010, the SCS has seen an increase in the frequency, length, and severity of MHWs. The incidence of MHWs has been linked to the presence of stable near-surface anticyclonic anomalies, which reduced cloud cover and increased solar radiation. This abnormal pattern was usually accompanied by the intensification and westward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). The findings imply that MHWs in the SCS may be predictable on interannual and decadal scales.

БАЙЕСОВЫ ОЦЕНКИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ СТОКА АМУРА И СЕЛЕНГИ В XXI ВЕКЕ ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ АНСАМБЛЕВЫХ МОДЕЛЬНЫХ РАСЧЕТОВ CMIP6

The analysis is carried out for changes in runoff of the Amur and Selenga rivers in the 21st century according to the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) climate model ensemble simulations using the Bayesian approach versus stream gage data on annual runoff and GPCP-2.3 dataset on annual precipitation over catchments on different timescales. For both catchments, significant intermodel differences are associated with the projections of multiyear mean runoff and interannual variability. The intermodel distribution of Bayesian weights indicates a high role of uncertainty related to initial conditions for model simulations. There is a positive trend in total runoff in the Amur River basin in the 21st century under all analyzed anthropogenic forcing scenarios. For total runoff of the Selenga River, there are no trends in the 21st century for all analyzed scenarios. No significant trends for the Amur and Selenga surface runoff were revealed for all algorithms for considering Bayesian weights and all anthropogenic forcing scenarios. At the same time, significant interdecadal variations in the interannual variability of runoff were found.

Spatio-temporal evolution of climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in Anhui Pro-vince based on principal component analysis

Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Anhui Province, to analyze the spatial-temporal variations of climate-induced reduction risk is of great significance to ensure regional food security. Based on the data of winter wheat yield from 1973 to 2014 in 74 districts and counties, nine risk assessment indicators were extracted from annual series of climate-induced reduction rate, and the spatial-temporal variations of climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in Anhui was analyzed by using principal component analysis. The results showed that north Anhui, especially the region along Huaihe River, was the higher-risk area for climate-induced yield loss. Results of the barycenter migration model showed that the high value regions of climate-induced reduction rate of winter wheat in Anhui Province had a significant tendency of moving from north to south. In the whole province, climate-induced reduction risk of winter wheat presented a significant interdecadal variation. Furthermore, the number of districts and counties with moderate or more reduction intensity was significantly reducing since the 2000s. Results from S-mode principal component analysis and climate-induced reduction rate series showed that the climate-induced reduction risk for winter wheat in north Anhui had a downward trend and that in southern Anhui had an upward trend. Climate-induced reduction risk of winter wheat in Anhui had notable temporal and spatial variations, the interdecadal fluctuation and north-south regional difference of which should draw our attention.

Multiscale variations in Arctic sea ice motion and links to atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Abstract. Arctic sea ice drift motion affects the global material balance, energy exchange and climate change and seriously affects the navigational safety of ships along certain channels. Due to the Arctic's special geographical location and harsh natural conditions, observations and broad understanding of the Arctic sea ice motion are very limited. In this study, sea ice motion data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) were used to analyze the climatological, spatial and temporal characteristics of the Arctic sea ice drift from 1979 to 2018 and to understand the multiscale variation characteristics of the three major Arctic sea ice drift patterns. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis method was used to extract the three main sea ice drift patterns, which are the anticyclonic sea ice drift circulation pattern on the scale of the Arctic basin, the average sea ice transport pattern from the Arctic Ocean to the Fram Strait, and the transport pattern moving ice between the Kara Sea (KS) and the northern coast of Alaska. By using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, each temporal coefficient series extracted by the EOF method was decomposed into multiple timescale sequences. We found that the three major drift patterns have four significant interannual variation periods of approximately 1, 2, 4 and 8 years. Furthermore, the second pattern has a significant interdecadal variation characteristic with a period of approximately 19 years, while the other two patterns have no significant interdecadal variation characteristics. Combined with the atmospheric and oceanic geophysical variables, the results of the correlation analysis show that the first EOF sea ice drift pattern is mainly related to atmospheric environmental factors, the second pattern is related to the joint action of atmospheric and oceanic factors, and the third pattern is mainly related to oceanic factors. Our study suggests that the ocean environment also has a strong correlation with sea ice movement. Especially for some sea ice transport patterns, the correlation even exceeds atmospheric forcing.

Interdecadal modulation of the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor mode and its influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The present study investigates the interdecadal modulations of interannual variability in the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) mode and its influence on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 1886–2014. The IPOC mode is extracted using singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and western North Pacific (WNP) 850 hPa relative vorticity anomalies during the boreal summer season (June to August; JJA). Analysis suggests that the IPOC mode induces a southwest-northeast dipole pattern in the Indian subcontinent rainfall with significant positive anomalies over the southern peninsular India and negative anomalies over the eastern parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains during the positive phase of IPOC. The 21-year sliding correlation coefficients between rainfall dipole index and leading principal component of SVD analysis (SVD-PC1) suggest that IPOC and ISM rainfall relationship exhibits significant interdecadal variability during the study period. The entire period has been divided into three distinct epochs as 1895–1926 (epoch-1), 1932–1972 (epoch-2) and 1976–2007 (epoch-3) based on 21-year sliding correlation. It is found that the IPOC mode strongly affect ISM rainfall in epoch-1 and epoch-3, whereas this relationship between the IPOC mode and ISM rainfall is inadequate in epoch-2 pertaining to the absence of the dipole rainfall pattern. The mechanisms responsible for such epochal changes in relationship between IPOC mode and ISM rainfall are discussed. In epoch-1 and epoch-3, anomalous TIO SST and the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern/WNP circulation both are well organized as part of the IPOC mode. However, in epoch-2 vigorous warm SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific and cyclonic circulation over the north Pacific accompanied by SST cooling around 40°N are noticed. The north Pacific cyclonic circulation accelerates the southwesterlies emerging from north-western flank of WNP anticyclone. On the other hand, positive SST anomalies and associated low-level convergence in central equatorial Pacific limit the extension of northeasterlies from the southern edge of WNP anticyclone to TIO. As a result, WNP anticyclone is squeezed/twisted between them, thereby weakening and shifting it northeastward. This in turn weakens the PJ mode and the inter-basin interaction of WNP circulation and TIO SSTs, causing disorganized IPOC pattern in epoch-2.

Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation Efficiency in East Asia

Precipitation efficiency (PE) is a crucial physical quantity in convective processes, describing the efficiency of rainfall generation from cloud detrainment. Although the importance of PE in extreme precipitation events is widely accepted, the evolution of PE in the warming climate and the associated moisture processes in East Asia are still not well understood. To address these issues, the interdecadal variability of PE in East Asia during summer in 1979–2016 is investigated in this study. Two major modes of summertime precipitation efficiency are identified using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF mode (EOF1) has a dipole pattern that reveals the variations of mean precipitation efficiency. The second EOF mode (EOF2) presents a quadrupole pattern that shows changes in the variability of precipitation efficiency. Both EOF modes exhibit significant interdecadal variability (IDV). The IDV of EOF1 is closely associated with the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the PDO can excite wind anomalies that significantly modulate moisture transport and further alter the mean precipitation efficiency in East Asia. The IDV of EOF2 can be attributed to the interdecadal change of occurrence frequency of Eastern Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which affect water vapor transport by inducing an East Asia-Pacific teleconnection-like wave train anomaly pattern. The IDV patterns of precipitation efficiency for both the mean value and variability will improve the ability to predict precipitation in East Asia.

The Major Interannual Modes of Late-Summer Precipitation Over the Northern China Monsoon Region

ABSTRACTSummer precipitation in the northern China monsoon region (NCMR; 35°–55°N, 108°–135°E) shows significant intraseasonal variability. The early-summer (June) and late-summer (July–August) precipitation patterns show clear differences in their formation mechanisms and the systems that affect them. We used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the two leading modes of July–August precipitation over the NCMR and their associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using linear regression. The results show that the first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes correspond to a pan-NCMR precipitation variation pattern and a precipitation oscillation pattern between North China (NC) and Northeast China (NEC), respectively. These two modes account for 22.1% and 10.1% of the total variance, respectively. The associated principal components (PCs) both have significant interannual variability with a period of 2–4 years. In addition, PC1 has significant interdecadal variability with a period of 20–30 years. Further analysis suggests that EOF1 and EOF2 clearly have a different relationship with the summer monsoon circulation system. In the positive phase of PC1, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAWJS) shows a northward trend with higher intensity than normal the blocking high at mid- to high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is located to the north of its normal position. The NCMR is controlled by stronger southerly winds, which cause the convergence of water vapour, favouring more precipitation in this region and vice versa. In the positive phase of PC2, the EAWJS swings to the south of Lake Baikal. Significant positive height anomalies exist from western NC to NEC. Significant negative height anomalies occur to the subtropical northwestern Pacific. This indicates that the cold vortex in Northeast China is inactive, the WPSH tends to be weaker and located to the south of its normal position, and NEC (NC) is dominated by anomalous northeasterly (southeasterly) winds. The convergence (divergence) of water vapour in NC (NEC) favours more (less) precipitation in NC (NEC) and vice versa. Therefore, EOF1 is related to the large-scale circulation anomalies over East Asia and the northwest Pacific in July and August, whereas EOF2 is more closely related to the anomalies in the regional circulation over the NCMR and the subtropical northwestern Pacific.

Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

AbstractThe resilience of coastal communities becomes a critical issue of the social‐ecological system adapting to impacts from hazards on coastal well‐being. This paper formulates a framework integrating typhoon destructive potential and social‐ecological system from a perspective of coastal resilience. Typhoon destructive potential is interpreted using the Power Dissipation Index as a metric. We use the distributional models in geographic information systems to identify the spatial hotspots of high Power Dissipation Index along the coast of Mainland China. Furthermore, we evaluate the community resilience in all identified hotspots with place‐based indicators within five potential dimensions (Social, Ecological, Institutional, Economic, and Safety). Though the results show no significant long‐term trends in the typhoon destructive potential, statistically significant interdecadal variations are identified in different hotspots during 1949–2014. The resilience assessment results reveal that ecological (predisaster defense) and safety resilience (postdisaster support) are critical issues in achieving coastal community resilience. We argue that improving the ecological stewardship (having great predisaster defense) and adopting integrated approaches contribute to resilience enhancement, providing opportunities to support all the dimensions of community resilience via improving the social‐economic‐ecological nexus. The integration of typhoon destructive potential and social‐ecological system helps to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 13 through risk‐informed decision‐making. The results from this study have important policy implications for local‐scale planning incorporating place‐based indicators.

Perspective on Landfalling Frequency and Genesis Location Variations of Southern China Typhoon During Peak Summer

AbstractIncreasing intense landfalling typhoons (LFTYs) are of great coastal threatens to southern China. However, changes in genesis location and landfalling frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) LFTY dedicated to southern China remain unclear. Here we identified such LFTYs during peak summer and found that most LFTYs formed south of 20°N and the LFTY genesis locations over southern WNP have also experienced a sharp interdecadal shift since 1998, which are mainly attributed to the large‐scale environment changes induced by the Mega‐La Niña‐like climate shift. However, LFTY frequency (= “landfalling frequency of southern China typhoon”) shows a slight increasing trend but without significant interdecadal variation. Variations of LFTY frequency are mainly affected by the easterly steering flows near 20°N over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, which are closely linked to the WNP subtropical high activity. Our results provide a new perspective on the LFTY activities dedicated to southern China.

Storm surge variation along the coast of the Bohai Sea

The present study mainly investigates the storm surge variations at different temporal scales using hourly tide gauge data in the Bohai Sea. The seasonal variation, inter-decadal variation, long-term trend and the tide-surge interaction were analyzed separately. The results show that the storm surges in the southwest Bohai Sea are larger than those in the north. The storm surges were more serious in winter (Oct. to Mar.) than in summer half of the year. Significant inter-decadal variations exist in the Bohai Sea, and the extreme storm surge events have been intensifying since 2010. Storm surge intensities at three of the tide gauges (Qinhuangdao, Huludao and Tanggu) exhibited a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2016, with trends significant at the 95% level at Qinhuangdao and Tanggu. Significant tide-surge interactions were observed at all four tide gauges. The tide-surge interaction that results in peak surges mostly occurs during the flood and ebb tides. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between storm surge intensity and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at Longkou and Tanggu, while there is a significantly positive correlation between storm surge intensity and the Siberian High (SH) at Huludao, Qinhuangdao and Tanggu. A linear regression analysis revealed that the variations of the AO and SH explained 19–48% of the variations in the storm surge intensity in the Bohai Sea.

Reconstructing the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon since the Late Nineteenth Century

Abstract A new index, the western North Pacific directional index (WNPDI), based on historical wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, has been developed to characterize the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) since 1898. The WNPDI measures the persistence of the surface westerly winds in the region 5°–15°N, 100°–130°E and easterly winds in the region 20°–30°N, 110°–140°E, exhibiting a consistent relationship with the summer precipitation in the areas affected by the WNPSM throughout the entire twentieth century. Its length doubles that of the previous WNPSM index (1948–2014) based on reanalysis products, which allows uncovering different relevant features of the WNPSM variability. The WNPSM had a significant interdecadal variability throughout the twentieth century. In particular, the period 1918–48 was characterized by less variable and stronger monsoons than in recent decades. Additionally, the relationship between the WNPSM and ENSO or El Niño Modoki has been evaluated during the entire twentieth century for the first time. It is confirmed that the WNPSM tends to be strong (weak) when El Niño (La Niña) develops during the whole record. Nevertheless, the relationship during the ENSO-decaying phase is not stable in time. Thus, the WNPSM tended to be strong (weak) when La Niña (El Niño) decayed only since the late 1950s, with an opposite relationship in the earliest part of the record. El Niño Modoki shows a rather stable and high correlation with the WNPDI during the whole study period throughout the twentieth century.

Potential impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean\u2013Western Pacific on the variability of typhoon landfall on the China coast

The landfall activity of typhoons (TYs) along the coast of China during July–August–September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variation during 1965–2010. We identify three sub-periods of TY landfall activity in JAS along the China coast in this period, with more TY landfall during 1965–1978 (Period I) and 1998–2010 (Period III), and less during 1982–1995 (Period II). We find that the interdecadal variation might be related to the combined effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase changes and sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific (IO–WP). During the negative PDO phase in Periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP), inducing easterly flow in its northern part, which favors TY landfall along the eastern China coast. Warm SST anomalies over the tropical IO–WP during Period III induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP through both the Gill-pattern response to the warm SST in the tropical IO and the anomalous meridional circulation induced by the warm SST in the tropical WNP. As a result, the northern South China Sea and WNP (10°–20° N) are dominated by southeasterly flow, which favors TYs making landfall on both the southern and eastern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TYs making landfall along the China coast during Period III than during Period I, which shows cool SST anomalies in the tropical IO–WP.

Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October–December) during 1955–2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955–2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955–1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989–2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

Interdecadal increase of haze in winter over North China and the Huang-huai Area and the weakening of the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The relationship between the interdecadal increase of haze in winter over North China and the Huang-huai area (HW-NCHH) and the weakening of the East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM) was investigated. The trend of the HW-NCHH showed significant interdecadal variation with a slow increase from 1961 to 1970, rapid increase from 1971 to 1985, and slight decrease thereafter. The HW-NCHH trend was influenced considerably but not monotonically by the emission of pollution. Based on an 11-year running mean, the correlation coefficient between the HW-NCHH and EAWM was -0.77, above the 95% confidence level. Therefore, the EAWM should be considered a factor that has important influence on the HW-NCHH over the decadal scale. Compared with the climatic state from 1961 to 1970, the EAWM was clearly weaker from 1986 to 2010 and the horizontal and vertical circulations adverse to pollution diffusion. The distribution of sea level pressure was typical of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and thus cold air was restricted to the Arctic. The surface wind and humidity both presented negative anomalies over the NCHH area, which favored the production of haze. The meridional circulation in the high latitudes was weak and zonal circulation occupied the NCHH area, which prevented the advection of cold air southward to disperse the particulate matter in the NCHH area. Meanwhile, vertical diffusion was inhibited by an anomalous high pressure and thermal inversion potential over the NCHH area, such that the particulate matter gathered within a shallow layer, which exacerbated the concentration of pollution.

Recent advances in monsoon studies in China

This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific, other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability.