Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea: Tempo-Spatial Pattern and Its Association with Large-Scale Circulation

Abstract

A marine heatwave (MHW) can significantly harm marine ecosystems and fisheries. Based on a remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) product, this study investigated MHWs behaviors in the South China Sea (SCS) throughout the warm season (May to September) from 1982 to 2020. The distributions of the three MHW indices used in this study showed significant latitudinal variations: more frequent, longer, and more intense MHWs appear in the northern SCS, and less frequent, shorter, and weaker MHWs appear in the southern SCS. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, we found that the first leading modes of the three MHW indices account for more than half of the total variance. The first leading modes reveal uniform anomalies throughout the SCS, with the maximum in the deep central portion and its surroundings. Their corresponding time series showed significant interdecadal variations, with a turning point around 2009. Since 2010, the SCS has seen an increase in the frequency, length, and severity of MHWs. The incidence of MHWs has been linked to the presence of stable near-surface anticyclonic anomalies, which reduced cloud cover and increased solar radiation. This abnormal pattern was usually accompanied by the intensification and westward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). The findings imply that MHWs in the SCS may be predictable on interannual and decadal scales.