Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Rapid Intensification Magnitude of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs), which refers to an explosive increase of TC intensity exceeding a certain threshold [e.g., 30 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) in 24 h] within a short time period, poses a great challenge to both forecasting and disaster prevention efforts. Recent studies have documented a significant increase in the magnitude of TC RI (RIM; measured as the mean intensification rate of all TC RI records in a TC season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1979, and have attributed it to the impacts of global warming. In this study, results from statistical analyses show that the TC RIM over the WNP during 1951–2021 exhibits significant interdecadal variability, which is found to be closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that the response of the local thermodynamic conditions to the AMO plays a dominant role in shaping this relationship. The positive AMO phase fosters a high TC RIM over the WNP by producing significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which in turn enhances TC heat potential and the midtropospheric relative humidity in the main region of TC RI occurrence. Results from both data analyses and numerical model experiments demonstrate that the AMO modulates thermodynamic conditions over the WNP, such as SST and ocean heat content, by affecting local heat fluxes and the Ekman heat transport in the WNP via the modulation of Walker circulation from the Atlantic to the Pacific.