Resilience Management Research Articles

Dashboard Use Case for Supply Chain Resilience Management and Future Research Direction

This paper builds upon the foundation of Key Resilience Areas to present a practical use case and to conceptualize a supply chain resilience dashboard. Expert evaluation from process mining and supply chain operations raised concerns regarding the usability and feasibility of such a dashboard. Additionally, future research directions, encompassing platform-based dashboards, resilience-sustainability fusion, and stress testing, are also explored.

Resilience in agri-food supply chains: a framework for risk assessment and strategy development

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical importance of resilience in the agri-food supply chain (AFSC) to ensure a reliable, uninterrupted, and disruption-free food supply for the ever-increasing global population. This study aims to comprehensively rank the multitude of risks faced by the AFSC, which have predominantly been examined in isolation. It develops a strategic framework for mitigating these risks by implementing appropriate resilient strategies. The study employs novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making techniques, including the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP), fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (F-TOPSIS), and fuzzy quality function deployment (F-QFD), to prioritise risks, assign weights, and rank various resilient strategies. The study contributes to the existing literature by proposing a systematic and robust strategic framework to facilitate decision-making processes in AFSC resilience management. It advances theoretical understanding and provides practical insights and recommendations for enhancing resilience in AFSC management.

Advancing projections of crown-of-thorns starfish to support management interventions

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown of Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster spp.; CoTS) cause substantial coral mortality throughout the Indo-Pacific, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Refining CoTS population density modelling and understanding the disparities between real-world observations and model predictions is crucial for developing effective control strategies. Using a spatially explicit ecosystem model of the GBR, we compared CoTS density model predictions to observations and incorporated a new zone-specific mortality rate to account for differences in predation of CoTS between fished and protected reefs. We found high congruence between predictions and observations: ∼81 % of categorical reef level CoTS densities matched or only differed by one category. However, underpredictions increased with higher observed densities. Zone-specific CoTS mortality reduced severe underpredictions from 7.1 % to 5.6 %, which is critical for managers as underpredictions indicate missing outbreaks where targeted culling is necessary, but also lead to underestimated coral loss attributed to CoTS outbreaks. Reef protection status affected prediction accuracy, highlighting the importance of further research on in situ CoTS mortality rates. The location of a reef inside or outside the “initiation box”, a speculative area of primary outbreaks (i.e., initial abrupt population increases) on the GBR, also influenced accuracy, with exact predictions more likely outside. Accurately modelling initiation box dynamics is challenging due to limited empirical data on CoTS outbreaks, highlighting the need for focussed research on outbreak dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Spatial factors, such as region and shelf position, contributed to the variance between observations and predictions, underscoring the importance of the spatial-temporal context of each observation. Observations of CoTS can help refine model predictions, guide targeted control measures, and contribute to effective ecosystem management for the long-term resilience of the GBR and other reefs targeted by CoTS throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Effects of landscape changes on urban climate change: A case study in the city of São Paulo

Given the vulnerability of Brazilian cities to climate change, it is imperative to monitor urban areas’ susceptibility to temperature fluctuations. In this article, we employ thermal remote sensing and digital image processing techniques to illustrate a substantial rise in surface temperatures across the Northwest Region of São Paulo City over the past three decades. This surge in surface temperature is closely linked to alterations in the urban landscape. Our findings emphasize that one significant environmental consequence of São Paulo City’s rapid urbanization is the pronounced increase in surface temperatures. These results also underscore the significance of assessing landscape features, such as vegetation cover, to inform the prudent, sustainable, and resilient management of urban centers, thereby mitigating climate change effects in metropolitan areas.

Predicting spatio-temporal traffic flow: a comprehensive end-to-end approach from surveillance cameras

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential aspect of intelligent traffic management. It enables timely and proactive management of modern transport systems, increasing efficiency and resilience. However, accurately predicting short-term traffic flow is challenging due to its uncertain and interconnected nature. Traditional methods like loop detectors and high-resolution cameras have limited scalability. To address this, we propose a two-stage approach using low-resolution surveillance cameras. The first stage involves a vision-based data extraction module with calibration, vehicle detection, and tracking. Integration of Region of Interest, fine-tuning, and post-processing improves the robustness of low-resolution videos. In the second stage, a novel deep learning model extracts spatio-temporal features from historical traffic data for short-term flow prediction. The proposed model outperforms the STGCN model, achieving an 11.19% increase in MAE, a 12.37% improvement in RMSE and a 4.97% reduction in inference time. These advances highlight its potential for further research and applications in the field.

Selecting Resilient Strategies for Cost Optimization in Prefabricated Building Supply Chains Based on the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-Ⅱ: Facing Diverse Disruption Scenarios

As a new sustainable building production mode, prefabricated building supply chains can realize energy saving, environmental protection and full cycle value maximization of building products. Prefabricated building supply chains often experience disruptions due to supply instability, transportation delay and force majeure, resulting in project delays and cost escalations and posing challenges to the sustainable development objectives of enterprises. Therefore, it is important and essential to study the strategy of enhancing the resiliency of prefabricated building supply chains, which has not been comprehensively explored in previous papers. This paper constructs decision-making models for supply chain cost resilience strategies under varying scenarios of supply disruptions, incorporating both redundant inventory and back-up supplier strategy. It considers the total cost and resilience of the supply chain as dual objective functions. Parameter-tuned non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-П (NSGA-П) algorithms were used innovatively to solve the project case, and the impacts of the redundant inventory coefficient and back-up supplier supply price coefficient on the model result were analyzed. The results indicate that the supply chain with resilience construction has a superior capability to cope with disruption. The results show that when there is a mild supply disruption, the general contractor uses the capacity within the supply chain and chooses a redundant inventory strategy to restore resilience. In the event of moderate disruption, both the easy inventory strategy and back-up supplier strategy are selected to maintain supply chain stability. In the event of a severe disruption, only the back-up supplier strategy is selected to cover the losses and maintain the project schedule. In addition, the choice of resilience strategy is impacted by the inventory levels and component prices of back-up suppliers. It further verifies the effectiveness of the model and the impacts of uncertain parameters in the model on the results. This study contributes to enhancing the resilience management of the prefabricated building supply chain by the general contractor, thereby elevating the overall efficiency and competitiveness of the supply chain and furthering the sustainable development of prefabricated buildings.

Inter-disciplinary Approaches to Risk Management and Information Sharing for Resilience to the Changing Climate

Inter-disciplinary Approaches to Risk Management and Information Sharing for Resilience to the Changing Climate

Advocating integration of human responses in the flood resilience framework for inland cities of northern China

ABSTRACT Frequent urban flooding poses a predominant challenge to resilience managers and the public in inland cities. Nevertheless, various facets of the formation, development, and response to inland flooding in developing countries are still less understood. Using the statistics data of typical flood events in China, this paper examines the causes of devastation in inland areas of the north combined with a comprehensive risk assessment methodology and explores a nuanced understanding of resilience. The conclusions reveal that the inland cities of northern China are facing an imminent threat from escalating flood hazards. 11% of the flood-influenced population and 17% of the disaster-caused economic losses are concentrated in the region. Increased extreme precipitation, heightened exposure and vulnerability, and a sluggish human response to crises are main factors contributing to these complex disasters. The study also proposes a transformative flood resilience framework for inland flooding from three dimensions, emphasizing the integration of human responses. The three aspects of the framework are summarized based on the driving factors mentioned earlier and a simplified multidimensional perspective of resilient cities, reflecting the adaptive and evolutionary features of resilience. Hence, incorporating the resilience strategies to urban flood risk management is a relatively practical approach to urban flood risk management in inland regions.

Sustainable Soil Management for Climate Resilience: Long-Term Management Effects on Soil Carbon Sequestration and Nitrogen Dynamics in a Semi-Arid Tropical Inceptisol of India

Sustainable Soil Management for Climate Resilience: Long-Term Management Effects on Soil Carbon Sequestration and Nitrogen Dynamics in a Semi-Arid Tropical Inceptisol of India

Analyzing Quantum Error Resilience for Quantum Communication in Guided and Unguided Media

AbstractThis research examines quantum key distribution and its applications in guided and unguided quantum communication. The importance of secure communication in the quantum era requires a thorough exploration of both guided and unguided quantum communication strategies. The research aims to address the challenges posed by guided channels, such as fiber optics, and unguided channels, such as free‐space quantum communication. This study addresses existing knowledge gaps in quantum error resilience management and signal processing techniques in unguided quantum communication. Advanced quantum gate analysis, environmental noise analysis, and quantum channel modeling techniques are employed. The research presents key findings on the impact of gate imperfections on quantum error resilience in guided media, the influence of noise‐induced errors in unguided media, and a unified metric for assessing various error sources in guided channels. Additionally, the study analyses stabilizer codes and surface codes for error mitigation through quantum error correction strategies. Simulation results provide a benchmark for theoretical predictions and guide the refinement of quantum communication protocols. In this context, machine learning‐based error prediction is introduced as a cutting‐edge approach to enhance the robustness of quantum communication systems.

Understanding Resilience – a Conceptual Framework

Abstract Nowadays we face a shift of paradigm from risk management to resilience management. Resilience is a complex concept that has become not just a “buzzword”, but also a meta-concept used in fields as far apart as biology, psychology, environmental studies, system-of-systems engineering and more. In this regard, the authors conducted fundamental research (mainly a literature review of a selection of open-source papers) to increase awareness towards the conceptual elements related to resilience. There were defined three resilience-related concepts: engineering resilience, organizational resilience and socioecological resilience. Afterwards, the main characteristics of resilient systems were highlighted. Nevertheless, the authors described a possible organizational resilience framework. The 6 suggested and detailed steps are: the comprehensive resilience analysis encompassing existing or new methodologies – audit, defining and fleshing out needed strategies, the actual design of measures to be implemented, the implementation phase of the previously designed measures, the monitoring step, and the evaluation phase of the success of the various implemented measures. The main limitation of the present research is the lack of validation of the proposed methodology.

Entrepreneur and organizational resilience: A multilevel perspective on Italian SMEs

ABSTRACT Despite previous studies acknowledging that resilience operates at multiple levels (the individual, group, and organizational levels), there is a lack of research exploring how resilience works across levels. In this paper we explore how the individual resilience of entrepreneurs and organizational resilience affect the resilient response of their SMEs. Our hypotheses are tested through structural equation modeling using a sample of 517 Italian firms. The results show a positive relationship between the individual resilience of entrepreneurs and the resilient response of SMEs and show that organizational resilience mediates this relationship. The paper makes theoretical contributions to the literature on resilience management and practical contributions for entrepreneurs and policymakers.

Key Factors Impacting Business Performance an Investigation of Firms in Vietnam

This study examines factors affecting company performance on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2020, analyzing internal and external variables, including the Covid-19 pandemic's impact. Using data from 40 firms and macroeconomic indicators, advanced econometric models identify key determinants of Return on Assets (ROA). Findings suggest financial leverage and operating leverage enhance ROA, while asset size and consumer inflation have mixed effects. Industrial production positively correlates with ROA, whereas the pandemic negatively impacts corporate performance. These insights inform strategic management and policy-making for economic resilience.

Protecting critical infrastructure against cascading effects: The PRECINCT approach

Critical Infrastructures (CIs), which serve as the foundation of our modern society, are facing increasing risks from cyber threats, physical attacks, and natural disasters. Additionally, the interdependencies between CIs throughout their operational lifespan can also significantly impact their integrity and safety. As a result, enhancing the resilience of CIs has emerged as a top priority for many countries, including the European Union. This involves not only understanding the threats/attacks themselves but also gaining knowledge about the areas and infrastructures that could potentially be affected. A European Union-funded project named PRECINCT (Preparedness and Resilience Enforcement for Critical INfrastructure Cascading Cyber-Physical Threats), under the Horizon 2020 program, tries to connect private and public stakeholders of CIs in a specific geographical area. The key objective of this project is to establish a common cyber-physical security management approach that will ensure the protection of both citizens and infrastructures, creating a secure territory. This paper presents the components of PRECINCT, including a directory of PRECINCT Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) blueprints. These blueprints support CI communities in designing integrated ecosystems, operating and replicating PRECINCT components (or toolkits). The integration enables coordinated security and resilience management, incorporating improved 'installation-specific' security solutions. Additionally, Serious Games (SG), and Digital Twins (DT) are a significant part of this project, serving as a novel vulnerability evaluation method for analysing complicated multi-system cascading effects in the PRECINCT Living Labs (LLs). The use of SG supports the concentrated advancement of innovative resilience enhancement services.

Earthquake, flood and resilience management through spatial planning, decision and information system

Assessment and planning of crisis management with the natural disasters approach include many components. In this regard, floods and earthquakes are some of the fundamental pillars in this field. With this view, paying attention to the current and future planning and research priorities of the world shows that crisis management in flood-prone and earthquake-prone areas and increasing resilience are the most important priorities for sustainable development studies and planning in the world. The western region of Iran (Lorestan province) has a special place due to the prominent features of flood and seismicity. This study aims to investigate the current situation regarding floods and earthquakes and increase the resilience of settlements with emphasis on the study area. After studying the current structure of flood and earthquake zoning according to multi-factor criteria, zoning was performed based on the integration of GIS and AHP information systems, and at the output of the work, high-risk settlements were determined separately for rural and urban areas with geographical coordinates, and then areas with low, very low, medium, high, and very high resilience were presented separately for rural and urban settlements. Also, after analyzing the SWOT model, strategies to increase the resilience of settlements to floods and earthquakes were presented. The study method of this research and the results, strategies, and operational options presented while being used in the study area are also applicable in other areas.

A40 Brecon bypass landslide: investigation, remediation and asset management for climate resilience

During February 2020, a 300 m 3 slope failure occurred within a trunk road earthwork at Brecon, Wales, leading to the initial closure of all four lanes of the dual carriageway. As part of Welsh Government's strategy for climate resilient infrastructure and in accordance with the CD622 Managing Geotechnical Risk framework, the site investigation commenced in 2020 and proceeded through various phases to the completion of remedial works in 2022. This paper discusses the approach to management of geotechnical risk for the scheme, from desk study through implementation of an on-slope ground investigation and interim risk mitigation, to design and implementation of the remedial measures. The paper describes the nature and trigger of the landslide case study, adaptations in the design phase to provide resilience to geohazards and future climatic conditions, the constraints that were overcome during the site works and measures taken to manage residual risk and ensure ease of maintenance. Thematic collection: This article is part of the Geo-resilience and infrastructure collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/topic/collections/geo-resilience-and-infrastructure

Towards decision-making support for complex socio-technical system safety assessment: A hybrid model combining FRAM and dynamic Bayesian networks

Effectively managing system safety and resilience in critical infrastructures requires addressing emergent risks and critical resonances. This study introduces a quantitative model that merges Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess technological, organizational, and human performance variability in complex social-technical systems. FRAM identifies system taxonomy and functional variability, while MCS pinpoints critical coupling, supplying prior probabilities for functional resonance. This information feeds into the DBN, facilitating the modeling of causal relationships and probabilistic inferences regarding risk uncertainties and system resonances. The model underwent rigorous testing and validation on a preheater cyclone system within the cement industry. This process involved the utilization of historical field data gathered from six prominent cement industries and input from thirty subject matter experts. The integrated approach deeply analyzes emerging risk indicators, unveiling interactions within organizational, human, and technical subsets, alongside performance variability. Furthermore, the model incorporates system learning parameters, aiding decision-making under uncertainty. These findings advance system safety and resilience management, offering insights for risk assessment and accident prevention across diverse scenarios in complex socio-technical systems.

Collaborative defense in the Arctic: Strengthening Norway's oil sector resilience through knowledge sharing and vigilance against drone threats

AbstractNorway's oil sector faces significant security challenges due to rapid technological advancements and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning threats from Russian drones. The sector maintains a vigilant approach, continually monitoring and adapting to evolving threats. This study investigates strategies employed by sector companies to mitigate challenges, emphasizing collaboration, effective network utilization, and learning from past incidents to enhance operational resilience. Our analysis aligns with three thematic areas from the Generic Resilience Management Guidelines developed under the EU‐funded H2020 project DARWIN: enhancing coordination in emergency response operations, managing adaptive capacities, and updating procedures and checklists. The study underscores the role of task forces, interdisciplinary teams, and collaborative efforts among industry operators in enhancing adaptability to threats. Findings indicated that although a willingness to draw insights from past incidents exists, a predominant reactive approach to learning prevails. Furthermore, a culture of secrecy prevalent in the sector inhibits knowledge sharing, potentially challenging overall resilience. In this complex context, proactive and transparent security approaches are imperative for Norway's oil sector to enhance resilience. Organizations should adopt a dynamic, technology‐integrated risk management approach, involving continuous policy revision and stakeholder engagement, as suggested in contemporary resilience enhancement strategies.

Resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning

ABSTRACT As the concept of resilience is becoming a criterion in planning, water utilities are seeking support and practical guidance to enhance their conventional risk-based planning processes. This paper presents a resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning during the transition towards integrated water resources management. Based on a synthesis of literature across engineering, ecological and social sciences, resilient system performance is defined using crossings of fail-safe and safe-fail thresholds as key indicators. System performance curves conceptually illustrate the capabilities withstanding, absorptive, restorative, adaptive, transformative, and anticipative (WARATA), during sudden and gradual disruptions. Sustainability goals are explicitly considered in the resilience framework, and the role of transformative and anticipative capabilities to facilitate transitions is discussed. Specifically, the desirability of physical design and predicted community consequences from performance impact and collapse can be used in resilience management to prioritize between fail-safe and safe-fail system capacities. Finally, key considerations for operationalizing the framework are summarized, including how issues related to social justice can be addressed when simulating performance and deriving metrics. While this paper focuses on urban water supply, the framework could be applied to other service-providing infrastructure where resilience-based planning supported by quantitative evidence is required to inform investments.

Integrative model of spirituality, social support, and altruism in carers resilience management: an empirical study of elderly cancer patients’ carers in Pakistan

ABSTRACT The study was conducted to test the effect of spirituality, social support, and altruism on the resilience of carers of older cancer patients and to assess if the context of care moderates the effect of spirituality, social support, and altruism on the resilience of carers of older patients with cancer. Data were collected from 305 carers providing care for at least 3 months to older adults suffering from cancer. The data was collected from three public and one private hospitals using convenience sampling. The results of regression analyses showed that the model predicting resilience from spirituality and context of care was statistically significant (F(10, 294) = 6.38, p < .001, R2 = 0.178). Likewise, the model predicting resilience from social support and the context of care was also statistically significant (F(10, 294) = 9.98, p < .001, R2 = 0.253). The final model predicting resilience from altruism and context of care was statistically significant: F(10, 294) = 5.57, p < .001, R2 = 0.159. The study underscores the need to advance a sense of purpose and meaning in caregiving activities, potentially through educational, welfare, and training programs that emphasis the positive impact of spirituality, social support, and altruism.