Remaining Life Expectancy Research Articles

What’s pension got to do with it? Mortality inequality at older ages

Abstract Background The potential role of social protection systems and welfare states for population health and mortality has attracted increased interest in recent decades but mostly focused on overall characteristics or clusters of countries. Moreover, often neglecting older people even though the great majority of all deaths in high-income countries occur at later ages. We focus on the key social protection scheme for old adults: the generosity of the level of pensions. We compare pensions based on previous work history to basic minimum pensions. Our study is novel both by linking pension system to remaining life expectancy at age 65(LE65+), but also by studying the association to variation in LE65+, since that gives a measure of inequality. We do so across countries and over time. Methods and Materials Our sources of data are from the Human Mortality Database and the Social Policy Indicator Database. Data for OECD countries are matched over a long period of time and analysed by pooled time-series regression analyses with fixed effects. Results Although the results indicate that the generosity of pensions based on both pervious work history and basic minimum income our results primarily show the importance of basic minimum income. Here the effect sizes are larger and especially for women than for men (0.149*** vs. 0,.0715***). Concerning the variation in LE (65+) we find that more generous basic pensions are associated with reduced variation for women -4.64e-05**. Conclusions We provide new insights in how pension policies potentially influence mortality among older persons especially by extending our analyses also to inequality in mortality. Our results points to the importance of basic pensions. The gendered division of labour is a plausible explanation for the findings and to have an adequate pension for all should be of primary concern for public health. Key messages • Adequate basic pension for all of importance for remaining life expectancy among older people. • Adequate basic pension for all of importance for reducing mortality inequality among women.

Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases on Years of Life Lost in FB&H During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract This study aims to comprehensively investigate the impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) on years of life lost (YLL) within the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) across distinct phases: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Given that NCDs currently represent more than half of the global disease burden, our focus lies in assessing YLL specifically for cerebral infarction (I63-I64) and diabetes mellitus (E10-E14). Conducting a retrospective data analysis, we utilized mortality data sourced from the Institute for Statistics of FB&H to quantify YLL. This assessment involved multiplying age-specific mortality figures by the remaining life expectancy at the corresponding age, utilizing the GBD 2019 life expectancy table. Examining the period between 2019 and 2022, our analysis aimed to elucidate the pandemic’s potential influence on NCD burden, through the examination of age-standardized YLL rates based on the world standard population. In 2019, YLL attributable to I63-I64 for both sexes totaled 41,244 in 2019, escalating to 44,790 in 2020, and subsequently decreasing to 39,439 and 32,055 in the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, respectively. For diabetes mellitus (E10-E14), YLL in 2019 amounted to 23,675, with figures for 2020, 2021, and 2022 standing retrospectively at 24,329, 24,114, 19,125. The increase in 2020 may be attributed, in part, to initial healthcare hesitancy during the pandemic’s onset, leading to delayed treatment and heightened mortality rates. Furthermore, patients who died in 2020 from C-19 without being tested may have skewed mortality registration by inflating rates attributed to pre-existing conditions. The declining rates thereafter could be due to a harvesting pandemic effect, in that people who were previously ill died prematurely from C-19. These insights show the pandemic’s profound impact on NCD-related mortality, underscoring the urgent need for targeted interventions and healthcare strategies. Key messages • A substantial reduction in years of life lost (YLL) related to certain noncommunicable diseases was observed during the pandemic. • The pandemic significantly influenced mortality among individuals with noncommunicable diseases, driven partly by healthcare hesitancy and potential misregistration of causes of death.

중위투표자 관점에서의 공공사회복지 지출 분석

This paper analyzes the growth of public social expenditures in Korea from a public choice perspective. Specifically, based on the median voter theory, we conduct an empirical analysis of social insurance expenditures such as national pension, national health insurance, and public social expenditures using time series data from 1993 to 2022. The empirical results support that changes in the budget constraint for lifetime utility maximization of the median voter, including financial assets, remaining life expectancy, and remaining working year, are associated with an increase in public social expenditure. In addition, macroeconomic variables such as the real interest rate, real economic growth, and the tax base per recipient are also found to affect public social expenditure. This paper suggests that as the age of the median voter increases, public social expenditures, including national pensions and national health insurance, are bound to increase both naturally and politically.

A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad.

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.

On Gamma-Gompertz-Makeham Assurances and Life Annuities

We focus on the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model, and derive useful structural properties for this mortality model. We provide the basic properties like moments, remaining life expectancy, single life annuity, among many others, in closed form, and so it eliminates the need of evaluating them through numerical integration directly. The estimation of the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model parameters is performed by using the maximum likelihood method under the traditional discrete Poisson distribution, as well as under the recently introduced discrete Bell distribution, which is an interesting alternative to the usual Poisson distribution, mainly in the presence of overdispersion. We illustrate the performance of the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model in a human mortality database, and compute, based on the Poisson and Bell distributions, the remaining life expectancy, single life annuity and single assurance at ages 30, 55, and 80 in France, Italy, Japan, and Sweden, from 1947 to 2020 males and females separately.

Analisis Pengaruh Beban Berlebih terhadap Sisa Umur Perkerasan Lentur pada Jalan Kawasan Industri Driyorejo dengan Metode MDPJ 2017

Flexible pavement is designed with regard to the load that will be received in order to achieve optimal performance throughout its service life. However, conditions in the road reveal indications of overloading by each category of vehicles, especially overload vehicles. Driyorejo industrial area road is a provincial road that connects the main industrial areas in Gresik Regency. With traffic dominated by overload vehicles, especially large trucks carrying a lot of goods, indications of damage to the pavement are becoming increasingly clear and obvious. This research aims to assess the impact of traffic load on the remaining life expectancy of flexible pavement, focusing on the load of vehicles crossing the road in the Driyorejo industrial area as the study variable. The calculation method used is the Bina Marga 2017 Method. The data used are Average Daily Traffic (LHR) data and vehicle load data. From the calculation results, the actual traffic growth (i) value is 32.7%. Vehicle overloading causes a decrease in the planned life of the road as indicated by the truck factor value of 1.06. The Remaining Life (RL) calculation represents a 14% decrease from the standard RL value of 69.3% to 55.3% under overload conditions, so it can be concluded that the overload significantly reduces the life of the road which was originally designed for 10 years to only 7 years.

Decomposition of life expectancy differentials with (and without) conditions by educational attainment for major groups of causes in contemporary Spain: where is the advantage?

IntroductionHealthy life expectancy is higher among individuals with higher socioeconomic standing. However, it is unclear whether such advantage is attributable to longer (i.e., mortality advantage) or to healthier (morbidity advantage) lifespans across different health conditions.ObjectiveEstimate the contribution of mortality and morbidity components in differences in condition-free life expectancies (CFLE) and life expectancy with conditions (LEWC) for five major groups of conditions by sex and educational attainment, instead of using a global indicator of morbidity.MethodsUsing the Sullivan Method, we computed remaining life expectancies at age 40 and 65, CFLE, and LEWC and applied a stepwise decomposition technique, using national health surveys along with mortality data, in a cross-sectional analysis.ResultsAn educational gradient was present in almost all conditions, with different intensities. For females, morbidity was the main contributor to educational differences in health expectancies, but mainly in the older age groups. For males, the drivers behind higher health expectancies for high-educated males were evenly distributed across mortality and morbidity between ages 40 and 65, but after that, the mortality gradient vanished between high-educated and middle-educated individuals.DiscussionThe changing contribution of the mortality and morbidity gradient for different conditions across age-groups brings evidence to adequately plan health policies to mitigate health gaps and improve quality of life of the populations in a lower social standing.

#620 Remaining life expectancy of Korean hemodialysis patients: how much longer can they live?

Abstract Background and Aims Hemodialysis (HD) patients have a higher mortality rate compared to general population. However, no study has investigated life expectancy in Korean HD patients so far. Therefore, this study aimed to calculate the remaining life expectancy among Korean maintenance HD patients and compare it to those of general population as well as HD patients from other countries. Method Baseline data were retrieved from HD quality assessment data from October to December 2015. Among the total number of patients who were alive at the beginning of 2016 (20,537 men and 14,404 women), a total of 22,439 (12,848 men and 9,591 women) were still alive at the end of 2021 while 12,502 (7,689 men and 4,813 women) were deceased during 6 years of follow-up. We used the life table method to calculate the expected remaining years of life in two-year increments. Results The mean age of the patients was 60.5 ± 12.4 years, and 58.7% were male. The average duration of HD was 5.63 ± 5.11 years. The most common cause of end-stage kidney disease was diabetes mellitus (42.0%), followed by hypertension (27.1%) and glomerulonephritis (10.9%). The remaining life expectancy for 60-year-old patients were 11.64 years for men and 14.64 years for women. The average remaining lifetimes of the HD population were only about a half of the general population (Fig.). Diabetic patients demonstrated shorter life expectancy compared to the patients with hypertension or glomerulonephritis. The remaining life expectancy of Korean HD patients was similar to that of Japanese and was almost double that of HD patients in Western countries such as Europe and United States. Conclusion HD population showed shorter life expectancy compared to the general population. Asian HD population seemed to demonstrate better patient survival compared to other countries. Longitudinal analysis should be warranted to analyze the effect of advanced dialysis technology upon improved survival rate among HD population.

#364 Patient characteristics, treatment history and prognosis of adult survivors of childhood kidney replacement therapy—an ERA Registry study

Abstract Background and Aims Young adults who initiated kidney replacement therapy (KRT) during childhood and reached their 18th birthday (i.e. adult survivors of childhood KRT) are a particularly challenging patient group. Besides the changes associated with adolescence, they go through a transition from paediatric to adult nephrology centres, in which patients are expected to take responsibility of their own care. This increases the risk of non-compliance to treatment and graft failure. Nevertheless, not many epidemiological studies have focused on adult survivors of childhood KRT. This type of study would support healthcare providers in obtaining knowledge about the prognosis of this patient group and, perhaps, recognizing possibilities of treatment improvements. We aimed to provide up-to-date information on patient characteristics, treatment history, (graft) survival, 5-year prognosis and expected remaining lifetime of adult survivors of childhood KRT. Method KRT data was used from 21 European countries/regions that contributed with individual patient data to the European Renal Association (ERA) Registry. Adult survivors of childhood KRT, reaching the age of 18 years between 2008 and 2019, were included in the analysis, and their patient characteristics and treatment trajectories were examined. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression were used in patient and graft survival analyses. The expected remaining lifetime of all KRT patients from the age of 18 years onwards was calculated overall and stratified by sex and treatment modality at the 18th birthday. Results We included 2 944 patients in the analysis, most of them were 10-14 (32.9%) or 15-17 (30.6%) years at start of KRT, and congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) were the most frequent cause of kidney failure (38.8%). Peritoneal dialysis was the most common treatment at start of KRT (37.8%), yet the percentage of adult survivors who received a pre-emptive kidney transplant increased from 25.6% in 2008-2011 to 32.4% in 2016-2019. By their 18th birthday, 81.4% of patients had a functioning kidney transplant. The overall unadjusted 5-year patient survival after their 18th birthday was 96.9% (95% CI 96.2-97.5), yet adult survivors on dialysis had an almost 4 times higher risk of death than their peers with a functioning kidney graft (adjusted HR 3.76 (95% CI: 2.55-5.53)). Besides, about 21% of the grafts failed during the 5 years after the 18th birthday (unadjusted 5-year graft survival: 78.9% (95% CI: 77.1-80.7)). Eighteen-year-old kidney transplant recipients reached 74% of the expected remaining lifetime of the general population, whereas dialysis patients only reached 37%. Conclusion Even at the young age of 18 years the remaining life expectancy of kidney transplant recipients was lower compared with the general population, and about one fifth of the grafts failed within 5 years after the patients’ 18th birthday. Still, as expected, adult survivors with a functioning kidney transplant at 18 years showed better outcomes than the ones on dialysis, with a greater 5-year survival and longer life expectancy. This epidemiological study reports on one of the biggest cohorts of adult survivors of childhood KRT studied to date. It provides unique knowledge on the prognosis of these patients, establishing the first step towards the optimization of care in this challenging patient group.

Income disparities in loss in life expectancy after colon and rectal cancers: a Swedish register-based study

BackgroundDifferences in the prognosis after colorectal cancer (CRC) by socioeconomic position (SEP) have been reported previously; however, most studies focused on survival differences at a particular time since diagnosis. We...

Wie hat sich die Lebenserwartung ohne funktionelle Einschränkungen in Deutschland entwickelt? Eine Analyse mit Daten des Deutschen Alterssurveys (DEAS)

ZusammenfassungEinleitungDer langfristige Anstieg der Lebenserwartung wirft die Frage auf, ob die gewonnene Lebenszeit mit einer Verlängerung der Jahre ohne gesundheitliche Einschränkungen einhergeht. Die Studie untersucht, wie sich die Lebenserwartung ohne funktionelle und Mobilitätseinschränkungen ab dem Alter 46 und 65 Jahre sowie ihre Anteile an der Restlebenserwartung seit 2008 verändert haben.MethodenWir analysieren Daten des Deutschen Alterssurveys der Wellen 2008, 2014 und 2020/2021. Die Lebenserwartung ohne funktionelle Einschränkungen (Disability Free Life Expectancy – DFLE) wurde mit der Sullivan-Methode berechnet. Untersucht wurden starke funktionelle Einschränkungen mit dem „Global Activity Limitation Indicator“ (GALI) und Einschränkungen der Mobilität (Treppensteigen, mehr als 1 km Gehen).ErgebnisseKompression der Morbidität beim GALI ist bei 46- und 65-jährigen Männern seit 2014 zu beobachten, bei gleichaltrigen Frauen dagegen nicht. Bei der Mobilität zeigen 46- und 65-jährige Männer Tendenzen zur Kompression beim Treppensteigen und 46-jährige Männer beim Gehen von mehr als 1 km seit 2014. Die Werte für Frauen stagnieren für die beiden erstgenannten Indikatoren, aber nicht für 46-jährige Frauen beim Gehen von mehr als 1 km seit 2014.DiskussionUnsere Analysen zeigen je nach Indikator, Alter und Geschlecht unterschiedliche Trends der DFLE und lassen keine eindeutige Antwort auf die Frage nach Morbiditätskompression oder -expansion zu. Kompression der Morbidität sehen wir eher bei Männern, Tendenzen der Stagnation oder Expansion dagegen eher bei Frauen. Diese Resultate signalisieren Herausforderungen in der Erhaltung der funktionellen Gesundheit vor allem bei Frauen und weisen auf die Notwendigkeit gezielter Interventionen hin, um die Lebensqualität und die gesunde Lebenserwartung zu verbessern.

Projected effectiveness of lung cancer screening and concurrent smoking cessation support in the Netherlands

The NELSON trial demonstrated a 24% intention-to-screen reduction in lung cancer mortality from regular screening with low-dose computed tomography. Implementation efforts in Europe are ongoing, but still await country-specific and NELSON-adapted estimates of the benefits and harms of screening. We use the MISCAN-Lung microsimulation model, calibrated to individual-level outcomes from the NELSON trial, to estimate the effectiveness under 100% compliance of biennial lung cancer screening with concomitant smoking cessation support for Dutch cohorts 1942-1961. The model simulates smoking behaviour, lung cancer incidence and the effects of screening and smoking cessation on lung- and other-cause mortality. We find biennial screening with eligibility criteria equal to those of the 4-IN-THE-LUNG-RUN implementation trial to reduce lung cancer mortality by 16.9% among the eligible population, equivalent to 1076 LC deaths prevented per year in the next two decades. Eligible individuals constitute 21.5% of the cohorts studied, and stand to face 61% of the projected lung cancer mortality burden in the absence of screening. 10.3 life-years are gained per prevented LC death, for 14.9 screens per life year gained. Concomitant smoking cessation interventions may increase the expected gains in life years from screening by up to 20%. Policy makers should imminently consider the implementation of lung cancer screening in Europe, paired with effective smoking cessation interventions. Smoking cessation interventions on their own are not estimated to yield a gain in remaining life expectancy of the magnitude offered by even a single CT screen. European UnionHorizon 2020 grant 848294: 4-IN-THE-LUNG-RUN.

Grandchildren's Longevity and Their Grandfathers’ POW Trauma in the U.S. Civil War

I document the transmission of a grandfather's net nutritional deprivation and psychosocial stress in young adulthood across multiple generations using the grandfather's ex-prisoner of war (ex-POW) status in the U.S. Civil War (1861–1865). Using a newly created dataset, I uncover an association between a grandfather's ex-POW status and the longevity after age 45 of his sons and male-line grandsons but not of his daughters, granddaughters, female-line grandsons, children-in-law, or grandchildren-in-law. Male-line grandsons lost roughly a year of life at age 45 (4% of remaining life expectancy) if descended from ex-POWs who suffered severe captivity conditions than if descended from non-POWs. If their grandfathers faced a less harsh captivity, male-line grandsons lost less than a year of life compared with those descended from non-POWs. I find that the grandfather's age at exposure and the grandson's education, as well as the son's and the grandson's poor late gestational conditions (proxied by season of birth), mediate this relationship. I rule out socioeconomic status, marriage and mortality selection, and cultural or psychological transmission from grandfathers to grandsons as explanations. I cannot rule out an epigenetic explanation.

Sex Differences in Short- and Long-Term Survival after Acute Type A Aortic Dissection.

Background and Objectives: Acute type A aortic dissection (AAD) is a life-threatening disease. No differences between men and women have been made in the treatment of AAD so far and knowledge about sex differences regarding long-term outcomes is limited. Materials and Methods: Between 01/2004 and 12/2021, 874 patients were operated on for AAD, including 313 (35.8%) women and 561 (64.2%) men. Clinical and surgical records, including long-term follow-up information, were obtained and analyzed retrospectively. To account for differences in the outcome determined by different preoperative life expectancies, a subgroup analysis for a set of patients matched according to their remaining life expectancy was performed. Results: At the time of AAD, women were older than men (69.1 ± 13.0 vs. 61.8 ± 13.3 years, p < 0.001) and had a shorter remaining statistical life expectancy (18.6 ± 10.8 vs. 21.4 ± 10.4 years, p < 0.001). Significantly more DeBakey type II AAD was found in women (37.1% vs. 25.7%, p < 0.001). Comorbidities and preoperative status at the time of presentation were similar in women and men. More hemiarch procedures (63.3% vs. 52.0%, p < 0.001) and less arch replacements (8.6% vs. 16.6%, p < 0.001) were performed in women, resulting in shorter cross-clamp times for women (92 ± 39 vs. 102 ± 49 min, p < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality was similar in women and men (11.5% vs. 12.7%, p = 0.618). Long-term survival was significantly shorter in women compared to men (9.8 [8.1-11.5] vs. 15.1 [11.9-18.4] years, p = 0.011). A matched subgroup analysis revealed that when comparing groups with a similar remaining life expectancy, the long-term survival showed no significant differences between women and men (9.8 [7.9-11.6] vs. 12.4 [10.1-14.7] years, p = 0.487). Conclusions: There are sex differences in AAD, with DeBakey type II dissection being more frequent in women. The seemingly worse long-term outcome can mostly be attributed to the shorter remaining statistical life expectancy at the time of presentation.

Smoking, respiratory symptoms, lung function and life expectancy: A longitudinal study of ageing.

Prognostic indices have been developed to predict various outcomes, including mortality. These indices and hazard ratios may be difficult for patients to understand. We investigated the association between smoking, respiratory symptoms and lung function with remaining life expectancy (LE) in older adults. Data were from the 2004/05 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (n = 8930), participants aged ≥50-years, with mortality data until 2012. Respiratory symptoms included were chronic phlegm and shortness of breath (SOB). The association between smoking, respiratory symptoms and FEV1/FVC, and remaining LE was estimated using a parametric survival function and adjusted for covariates including age at baseline and sex. The extent to which symptoms and FEV1/FVC predicted differences in remaining LE varied by smoking. Compared to asymptomatic never smokers with normal lung function (the reference group), in never smokers, only those with SOB had a significant reduction in remaining LE. In former and current smokers, those with respiratory symptoms had significantly lower remaining LE compared to the reference group if they had FEV1/FVC <0.70 compared to those with FEV1/FVC ≥0.70. Males aged 50-years, current smokers with SOB and FEV1/FVC <0.70, had a remaining LE of 19.2 (95%CI: 16.5-22.2) years, a decrease of 8.1 (5.3-10.8) years, compared to the reference group. Smoking, respiratory symptoms and FEV1/FVC are strongly associated with remaining LE in older people. The use of remaining LE to communicate mortality risk to patients needs further investigation.

Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy's Law

The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e., evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the assumed distribution of longevities has some bearing on the chances of success of technosignature searches, as well as on the inferred age of technosignatures following a first contact. Here, we investigate the possibility that the longevity of technosignatures conforms to the so-called Lindy’s law, whereby, at any time, their remaining life expectancy is roughly proportional to their age. We show that, if Lindy’s law applies, the general tenet that the first detected technosignature ought to be very long lived may be overruled. We conclude by discussing the number of emitters that had to appear, over the history of the Galaxy, in order for one of them to be detectable today from Earth.

Remaining life expectancy of Korean hemodialysis patients: how much longer can they live?

Hemodialysis (HD) patients have a higher mortality rate compared to the general population. However, no study has investigated life expectancy in Korean HD patients so far. Therefore, this study aimed to calculate the remaining life expectancy among Korean maintenance HD patients and compare it to those of the general population as well as HD patients from other countries. Baseline data were retrieved from HD quality assessment data from 2015. Among the patients over 30 years old who were alive at the beginning of 2016 (20,304 males and 14,264 females), a total of 22,078 (12,621 males and 9,457 females) were still alive at the end of 2021 while 12,490 (7,683 males and 4,807 females) were deceased during 6 years of follow-up. We used the life table method to calculate the expected remaining years of life in 2-year increments. The remaining life expectancies for 60-year-old patients were 11.64 years for males and 14.64 years for females. The average remaining life expectancies of the HD population were only about half of the general population. Diabetic patients demonstrated shorter life expectancy compared to patients with hypertension or glomerulonephritis. The remaining life expectancy of Korean HD patients was similar to that of Japanese and was almost double that of HD patients in Western countries such as Europe and the United States. The HD population shows a shorter life expectancy compared to the general population. Longitudinal analysis should be warranted to analyze the effect of advanced dialysis technology on improved survival rates among the HD population.

Life-cycle decisions and general equilibrium in the heterogeneous-agent OLG economy

ABSTRACT This study develops a life-cycle model to predict an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents. In our proposed model, ex-ante heterogeneity includes the work probability, survival rate, subjective discount rate, and intertemporal elasticity of substitution. We observe differences in financial decisions and asset accumulation among heterogeneous agents and calculate equilibrium values of aggregate economic variables, such as consumption and capital. For the numerical analyses, we classify the population into four groups based on labour productivity and gender, and investigate the life-cycle behaviours of heterogeneous agents. Retirees in the male group with low labour productivity and low remaining life expectancy have the highest propensity to consume and the highest consumption elasticity for retirement shock compared to other retirees. Workers with relatively high labour productivity have lower risk adjustment factors, indicating that they are less concerned about retirement risk than less productive workers.

Revised European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC) recommended framework on palliative sedation: An international Delphi study

Background: The European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC) acknowledges palliative sedation as an important, broadly accepted intervention for patients with life-limiting disease experiencing refractory symptoms. The EAPC therefore developed 2009 a framework on palliative sedation. A revision was needed due to new evidence from literature, ongoing debate and criticism of methodology, terminology and applicability. Aim: To provide evidence- and consensus-based guidance on palliative sedation for healthcare professionals involved in end-of-life care, for medical associations and health policy decision-makers. Design: Revision between June 2020 and September 2022 of the 2009 framework using a literature update and a Delphi procedure. Setting: European. Participants: International experts on palliative sedation (identified through literature search and nomination by national palliative care associations) and a European patient organisation. Results: A framework with 42 statements for which high or very high level of consensus was reached. Terminology is defined more precisely with the terms suffering used to encompass distressing physical and psychological symptoms as well as existential suffering and refractory to describe the untreatable (healthcare professionals) and intolerable (patient) nature of the suffering. The principle of proportionality is introduced in the definition of palliative sedation. No specific period of remaining life expectancy is defined, based on the principles of refractoriness of suffering, proportionality and independent decision-making for hydration. Patient autonomy is emphasised. A stepwise pharmacological approach and a guidance on hydration decision-making are provided. Conclusions: This is the first framework on palliative sedation using a strict consensus methodology. It should serve as comprehensive and soundly developed information for healthcare professionals.

Comparing Preferences for Disease Profiles: A Discrete Choice Experiment from a US Societal Perspective.

There is increasing interest in expanding the elements of value to be considered when making health policy decisions. To help inform value frameworks, this study quantified preferences for disease attributes in a general public sample and examined which combination of attributes (disease profiles) are considered most important for research and treatment. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in a US general population sample, recruited through online consumer panels. Respondents were asked to select one of a set of health conditions they believed to be most important, characterized by attributes defined by a previous qualitative study: onset age; cause of disease; life expectancy; caregiver requirement; symptom burden (characterized by the Health Utilities Index with varying levels of ambulation independence, dexterity limitations, and degree of pain and discomfort); and disease prevalence. A fractional factorial DCE design was implemented using R, and 60 choice sets were generated (separated into blocks of 10 per participant). Data were analyzed using a mixed-logit regression model, and results used to assess the likelihood of preferring disease profiles. Based on individual attribute preferences, overall preferences for disease profiles, including a profile aligned with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), were compared. Fifty-two percent of respondents (n = 537) were female, and 70.6% were aged 18-54 years. Attributes considered most important were those related to life expectancy (odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.88 [1.56-2.27] for a 50% reduction in remaining life expectancy vs no impact), and symptom burden (OR [95% CI] 1.84 [1.47-2.31] for severe vs mild burden). Greater importance was also found for pediatric onset, caregiver requirement, and diseases affecting more people. As an example of disease profile preferences, a DMD-like pediatric inherited disease with 50% reduction in life expectancy, extensive caregiver requirement, severe symptom burden, and 1:5000 prevalence had 2.37-fold higher odds of being selected as important versus an equivalent disease with adult onset and no life expectancy reduction. Of disease attributes included in this DCE, respondents valued higher prevalence of disease, life expectancy and symptom burden as most important for prioritizing research and treatment. Based on expressed attribute preferences, a case study of an inherited pediatric disease involving substantial reductions to length and quality of life and requiring caregiver support has relatively high odds of being identified as important compared to diseases reflecting differing attribute profiles. These findings can help inform expansions of value frameworks by identifying important attributes from the societal perspective.