Remaining Life Expectancy Research Articles

Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account

In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths.We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men.

Dužina telomera kao biomarker starenja i bolesti

As research related to healthspan and lifespan has become a hot topic, the necessity for a reliable and practical biomarker of aging (BoA), which can provide information about mortality and morbidity risk, along with remaining life expectancy, has increased. The chromosome terminus non-coding protective structure that prevents genomic instability is called a telomere. The continual shortening of telomeres, which affects their structure as well as function, is a hallmark of agedness. The aforementioned process is a potential cause of age-related diseases (ARDs), leading to a bad prognosis and a low survival rate, which compromise health and longevity. Hence, studies scrutinizing the BoAs often include telomere length (TL) as a prospective candidate. The results of these studies suggest that TL measurement can only provide an approximate appraisal of the aging rate, and its implementation into clinical practice and routine use as a BoA has many limitations and challenges. Nevertheless, measuring TL while determining other biomarkers can be used to assess biological age. This review focuses on the importance of telomeres in health, senescence, and diseases, as well as on summarizing the results and conclusions of previous studies evaluating TL as a potential BoA.

Disparities in Disease-Specific Remaining Life Expectancy Among Medicare Beneficiaries in the United States

Racial and geographic disparities in life expectancy (LE) in the US are a persistent problem. We used 5% Medicare Claims for 2000-2017 to investigate the patterns of remaining LE (RLE) in the U.S. with the highest and the lowest LE. RLEs in race-/ethnicity specific populations aged 65+ were calculated in patients with specific diseases and in the total population using the area under the Kaplan-Meier estimator. The Cox model was used to investigate the effect of state-specific residence on total LE and RLE. Between-the-states differences in RLE were most pronounced for cerebrovascular disease, atherosclerotic heart disease, breast and prostate cancer. RLE was the lowest for lung cancer and sepsis, followed by Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, pneumonia, and heart failure. RLE for myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular disease decreased over time, while for renal failure, diabetes, atherosclerotic heart disease, and cancers of breast and prostate RLE increased.

Geographic variation in gender gap among older adults in India and China: Application of a new ageing measure

A continuous rise in the life expectancy of females above that of the males among older adults in India and China may give an impression that the gender gap in health is decreasing. However, given the systemic bias against females in these countries across multiple facets, and the diversity across provinces, a fuller understanding of gender gap calls for (a) understanding the gender gap in multiple dimensions of health, and (b) understanding the variations across provinces. We estimate a multi-dimensional old-age threshold (MOAT) across provinces in India and China, that specifies different old-age thresholds for female and male populations after simultaneously accommodating for multiple dimensions related to their health. These aspects of health include remaining life expectancy, intellectual and functional health. We estimate the gender gap across provinces in these countries by differencing the MOAT of males against that of females. In addition, we also illustrate the gender gap across individual dimensions of health. Our results show that females in almost all the provinces of India and China have a lower MOAT than their male counterparts, showing an earlier advent of ‘old-age’ among females compared to males. The estimates based on remaining life expectancy shows gender gap in favor of females, but the estimates of multi-dimensional gender gap are higher and biased against females. A huge variation is seen across provinces, with Karnataka and Hubei showing lower levels of gender gap and Rajasthan and Yunnan showing higher gender gaps in India in China respectively.

Expanding the Scope of Administrative Health Records Through Advanced Statistical Methods

The objective of the Symposium is to expand familiarity of the application of advanced methods of modern statistical modeling and data management, to administrative health data by combining methodological innovations with practical hands-on demonstrations. Topics will cover a range of methodological and substantive topics including: i) decomposition and partitioning approaches in analysis of disparities and time trends in AD/ADRD; ii) new artificial intelligence technologies that allow us to enrich electronic health record datasets with self-report scores in geriatrics; iii) using administrative data to model adherence to disease management and health-related behavior; iv) the use of longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction to study health disparities and multimorbidity; and v) the geographic and racial disparities in total and remaining life expectancies after diagnoses of AD/ADRD and other chronic conditions. The increasing availability of large-scale datasets based on electronic health records and administrative claims records provide an unprecedented opportunity for obtaining nationally representative results based on individual-level measures that reflect the real care-related and epidemiological processes. This makes the reduction of barriers to entry to the use of such data of vital importance to the community of geriatrics and health researchers.

The price of curing cancer

BackgroundHealth care systems around the world struggle with high prices for new cancer drugs. The purpose of this study was to conduct a gedankenexperiment and calculate how much health expenditures would change if a cure for cancer through pharmaceutical treatment were made available. The cancer cure was conceived to eliminate both cancer deaths and the underlying morbidity burden of cancer. Furthermore, the cure was hypothesized to arrive in incremental steps but at infinitesimally small time intervals (resulting, effectively, in an immediate cure).MethodsThe analysis used secondary data and was conducted from the viewpoint of the German social health insurance. As its underlying method, it used a cause-elimination life-table approach. To account for the age distribution of the population, the study weighted age-specific increases in remaining life expectancy by age-specific population sizes. It considered drug acquisition costs as well as savings and life extension costs from eliminating cancer. All cancer drugs that underwent a mandatory early benefit assessment in Germany between 2011 and 2015/16 and were granted an added benefit were included. Data on age- and gender-specific probabilities of survival, population sizes, causes of death, and health expenditures, as well as data on cancer costs were taken from the German Federal Office of Statistics and the German Federal Social Insurance Office.ResultsBased on the cause-elimination life-table approach and accounting for the age structure of the German population, curing cancer in Germany yields an increase in average remaining life expectancy by 2.66 life years. Based on the current incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of new cancer drugs, which is on average €101,493 per life year gained (€39,751/0.39 life years), the German social health insurance would need to pay €280,497 per insuree to eliminate cancer. Dividing this figure by current average remaining lifetime health expenditures yields a ratio of 2.07, which represents a multiplier of current health expenditures.ConclusionsEliminating cancer at current price levels would more than triple total health expenditures in Germany. As the current price of a cure requires a drastic reduction of non-health consumption, it appears that current prices for cancer drugs already on the market (i.e., small steps towards a cure) need careful reconsideration.

Growing Income-Based Inequalities in Old-Age Life Expectancy in Sweden, 2006–2015

Sweden is known for high life expectancy and economic egalitarianism, yet in recent decades it has lost ground in both respects. This study tracked income inequality in old-age life expectancy and life span variation in Sweden between 2006 and 2015, and examined whether patterns varied across levels of neighborhood deprivation. Income inequality in remaining life expectancy at ages 65, 75, and 85 increased. The gap in life expectancy at age 65 grew by more than a year between the lowest and the highest income quartiles, for both men (from 3.4 years in 2006 to 4.5 years in 2015) and women (from 2.3 to 3.4 years). This widening income gap in old-age life expectancy was driven by different rates of mortality improvement: individuals with higher incomes increased their life expectancy at a faster rate than did those with lower incomes. Women with the lowest incomes experienced no improvement in old-age life expectancy. Furthermore, life span variation increased in the lowest income quartile, while it decreased slightly among those in the highest quartile. Income was found to be a stronger determinant of old-age life expectancy than neighborhood deprivation.

On the Existence and Uniqueness of the Remaining Life Expectancy in the Model of a Stable Population

On the Existence and Uniqueness of the Remaining Life Expectancy in the Model of a Stable Population

A model of lifetime health outcomes in cardiovascular disease based on clinical trials and large cohorts

Abstract Background and purpose Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals depends on their socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, and treatments, and strongly influences their quality of life and survival. Individual-based long-term disease models, which aim to more accurately calculate the lifetime consequences, can help to target treatments, develop disease management programmes, and assess the value of new therapies. We present a new micro-simulation CVD model. Methods This micro-simulation model was developed using individual participant data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' collaboration (CTT: 118,000 participants; 15 trials) and calibrated (with added socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, physical activity, mental illness, cancer and incident diabetes) in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants). Parametric survival models estimated risks of key endpoints (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularisation (CRV), diabetes, cancer and vascular (VD) and nonvascular death (NVD) using participants' age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking history, lipids, blood pressure, creatinine, previous cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, mental illness and cancer at entry and non-fatal incidents of the key endpoints during follow-up. The model integrates the risk equations and enables annual projection of endpoints and survival over individuals' lifetimes. The model was used to project remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants. Results Nonfatal cardiovascular events and age were the major determinants of CVD risk and, together with incident diabetes and cancer, of individuals' survival. The cumulative incidence of the key endpoints predicted by the CTT-UKB model corresponded well to their observed incidence in the UK Biobank cohort, overall (Figure 1) and in categories of participants by age, sex, prior CVD and CVD risk. Predicted remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants without history of CVD ranged between 22 and 43 years in men and between 24 and 46 years in women, depending on their age and CVD risk (Figure 2). Among UK Biobank participants with history of CVD, depending on their age, predicted remaining life expectancy ranged from 20 to 32 years in men and from 26 to 38 years in women. Conclusion This new lifetime CVD model accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in a large UK population cohort. It will be made available to provide individualised projections of expected lifetime health outcomes and benefits of treatments. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation Figure 1. Predicted (in black) versus observed (95% CI; in red) incidence of major clinical outcomes in the UK Biobank.Figure 2. Predicted remaining life expectancy of participants in UK Biobank cohort, by age and CVD risk or previous CVD at entry. QRISK, a 10-year CVD risk scoring algorithm for people without previous CVD, recommended for use in the UK National Health Service.

Partially linear single-index generalized mean residual life models.

Mean residual life (MRL) function defines the remaining life expectancy of a subject who has survived to a time point and is an important alternative to the hazard function for characterizing the distribution of a time-to-event variable. Existing MRL models primarily focus on studying the association between risk factors and disease risks using linear model specifications in multiplicative or additive scale. When risk factors have complex correlation structures, nonlinear effects, or interactions, the prefixed linearity assumption may be insufficient to capture the relationship. Single-index modeling framework offers flexibility in reducing dimensionality and modeling nonlinear effects. In this article, we propose a class of partially linear single-index generalized MRL models, the regression component of which consists of both a semiparametric single-index part and a linear regression part. Regression spline technique is employed to approximate the nonparametric single-index function, and parameters are estimated using an iterative algorithm. Double-robust estimators are also proposed to protect against the misspecification of censoring distribution or MRL models. A further contribution of this article is a nonparametric test proposed to formally evaluate the linearity of the single-index function. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established, and the finite-sample performance is evaluated through extensive numerical simulations. The proposed models and inference approaches are demonstrated by a New York University Langone Health (NYULH) COVID-19 dataset.

Decision making in emergency laparotomy: the role of predicted life expectancy.

IntroductionIncreasing numbers of older patients are undergoing emergency laparotomy (EL). They are at increased risk of adverse outcomes, making the shared decision on whether to operate challenging. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the role of age and life-expectancy predictions on short- and long-term survival in patients undergoing EL.MethodsAll patients who underwent EL at one hospital in the West of Scotland between March 2014 to December 2016 were included. Clinical parameters were collected, and patients were followed up to allow reporting of 30-, 60- and 90-day and 1-year mortality rates. Period life expectancy was used to stratify patients into below life expectancy (bLEP) and at-or-above life expectancy (aLEP) groups at presentation. Remaining life expectancy was used to calculate the net years of life gained (NYLG).ResultsSome 462 patients underwent EL: 20 per cent in the aLEP group. These patients were older (P < 0.001), had more co-morbidities (P < 0.001) and were high risk on P-POSSUM scoring (P = 0.008). The 30-, 60- and 90-day and 1-year mortality rates were 11, 14, 16 and 23 per cent respectively. Advanced age (P = 0.011) and high ASA score (P = 0.004) and P-POSSUM score (P < 0.001) were independent predictors of death at 1 year on multivariable analysis. The cohort NYLG were 19.2 years. Comparing patients aged less than 70 with those aged 70 years or older, the NYLG were 25.9 versus 5.5 years. Comparing bLEP and aLEP, the NYLG were 22.2 versus 4.4 years. In patients aged 70 years and older, NYLG decreased by more than half in patients with co-morbidities (ASA score 3,4,5) (9.3 versus 4.3 years).ConclusionDiscussions around long-term outcomes after emergency surgery remain difficult. Although age is an influencing factor, predicted life expectancy alone does not provide additional value to shared decision making.

Outcomes for Geriatric Urolithiasis Patients aged ≥80 Years Compared to Patients in Their Seventies

BackgroundDemographic changes are leading to an increase in geriatric urolithiasis patients aged ≥70 yr. Published data regarding their management remain sparse. In particular, for the subgroup of patients aged ≥80 yr there is a lack of evidence supporting the hypothesis that stone-removing treatment is effective, safe, and beneficial. ObjectiveTo examine the efficiency and safety of stone-removing treatment in geriatric urolithiasis patients aged ≥80 yr compared to their younger geriatric counterparts aged 70–79 yr against the background of their respective life expectancy. Design, setting, and participantsData for the study cohort were extracted from an institutional review board–approved retrospective database with 325 patients aged ≥70 yr (70–79 yr: n = 241; ≥80 yr: n = 84) consecutively admitted to hospital because of symptomatic urolithiasis from 2013 to 2018. Outcome measurements and statistical analysisBaseline characteristics, outcome and follow-up data, and survival were compared using Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U tests, χ2 tests, Kaplan-Meier estimation, log-rank tests, and Cox regression. Results and limitationsAt baseline, the incidence of infected hydronephrosis was greater among patients aged ≥80 yr (p < 0.05), whereas the median stone burden and Charlson comorbidity index did not differ between the groups. Outcome analysis revealed no significant differences in terms of complication, stone-free, and 6-mo readmission rates (p > 0.05). Survival analysis for the two groups demonstrated a 2-yr overall survival (OS) rate of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75–1) for patients aged ≥80 yr and 0.97 (95% CI 0.88–1), for those aged 70–79 yr (p < 0.01). Multivariable Cox analysis revealed age ≥80 yr (hazard ratio [HR] 3.3, 95% CI 1.3–8.5) and infected hydronephrosis (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.0–7.8) as predictors of all-cause mortality (p < 0.05). The study is limited by its retrospective design. ConclusionsStone-removing treatment for patients aged ≥80 yr proved to be as effective and safe as for patients in their seventies. Although characterized by shorter remaining life expectancy, excellent 2-yr OS for patients aged ≥80 yr supports the hypothesis of equal benefit from stone-removing treatment when compared to septuagenarians. Patient summaryThere is a lack of evidence supporting the benefit of urinary stone-removing treatment for patients older than 80 yr. Our study included geriatric patients older than 70 yr with symptomatic urinary stone disease for which urinary drainage or stone removal is indicated. We compared treatment outcomes and survival between two age groups: patients aged 70–79 yr and those aged 80 yr or older. We found equivalent outcomes for the two groups and excellent 2-yr overall survival of 91% for those older than 80 yr. The study strengthens the evidence that active stone-removing therapy is safe and beneficial for these patients.

Conflict-related intentional injuries in Baghdad, Iraq, 2003-2014: A modeling study and proposed method for calculating burden of injury in conflict.

Previous research has focused on the mortality associated with armed conflict as the primary measure of the population health effects of war. However, mortality only demonstrates part of the burden placed on a population by conflict. Injuries and resultant disabilities also have long-term effects on a population and are not accounted for in estimates that focus solely on mortality. Our aim was to demonstrate a new method to describe the effects of both lives lost, and years of disability generated by a given conflict, with data from the US-led 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq. Our data come from interviews conducted in 2014 in 900 Baghdad households containing 5,148 persons. The average household size was 5.72 persons. The majority of the population (55.8%) were between the ages of 19 and 60. Household composition was evenly divided between males and females. Household sample collection was based on methodology previously designed for surveying households in war zones. Survey questions were answered by the head of household or senior adult present. The questions included year the injury occurred, the mechanism of injury, the body parts injured, whether injury resulted in disability and, if so, the length of disability. We present this modeling study to offer an innovative methodology for measuring "years lived with disability" (YLDs) and "years of life lost" (YLLs) attributable to conflict-related intentional injuries, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach. YLDs were calculated with disability weights, and YLLs were calculated by comparing the age at death to the GBD standard life table to calculate remaining life expectancy. Calculations were also performed using Iraq-specific life expectancy for comparison. We calculated a burden of injury of 5.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to conflict-related injuries in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014. The majority of DALYs lost were attributable to YLLs, rather than YLDs, 4.99 million YLLs lost (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.87 million to 6.13 million) versus 616,000 YLDs lost (95% UI 399,000 to 894,000). Cause-based analysis demonstrated that more DALYs were lost to due to gunshot wounds (57%) than any other cause. Our study has several limitations. Recall bias regarding the reporting and attribution of injuries is possible. Second, we have no data past the time of the interview, so we assumed individuals with ongoing disability at the end of data collection would not recover, possibly counting more disability for injuries occurring later. Additionally, incomplete data could have led to misclassification of deaths, resulting in an underestimation of the total burden of injury. In this study, we propose a methodology to perform burden of disease calculations for conflict-related injuries (expressed in DALYs) in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014. We go beyond previous reports of simple mortality to assess long-term population health effects of conflict-related intentional injuries. Ongoing disability is, in cross section, a relatively small 10% of the total burden. Yet, this small proportion creates years of demands on the health system, persistent limitations in earning capacity, and continuing burdens of care provision on family members.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Surgical Intervention for Spinal Metastases: A Model-Based Evaluation.

Operative and nonoperative treatments for spinal metastases are expensive interventions with a high rate of complications. We sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of a surgical procedure compared with nonoperative management as treatment for spinal metastases. We constructed a Markov state-transition model with health states defined by ambulatory status and estimated the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs for operative and nonoperative management of spine metastases. We considered 2 populations: 1 in which patients presented with independent ambulatory status and 1 in which patients presented with nonambulatory status due to acute (e.g., <48 hours) metastatic epidural compression. We defined the efficacy of each treatment as a likelihood of maintaining, or returning to, independent ambulation. Transition probabilities for the model, including the risks of mortality and becoming dependent or nonambulatory, were obtained from secondary data analysis and published literature. Costs were determined from Medicare reimbursement schedules. We conducted analyses over patients' remaining life expectancy from a health system perspective and discounted outcomes at 3% per year. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in data inputs. Among patients presenting as independently ambulatory, QALYs were 0.823 for operative treatment and 0.800 for nonoperative treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a surgical procedure was $899,700 per QALY. Among patients presenting with nonambulatory status, those undergoing surgical intervention accumulated 0.813 lifetime QALY, and those treated nonoperatively accumulated 0.089 lifetime QALY. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a surgical procedure was $48,600 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of a surgical procedure was most sensitive to the variability of its efficacy. Our data suggest that the value to society of a surgical procedure for spinal metastases varies according to the features of the patient population. In patients presenting as nonambulatory due to acute neurologic compromise, surgical intervention provides good value (ICER, $48,600 per QALY). There is a low value for a surgical procedure performed for patients who are ambulatory at presentation (ICER, $899,700 per QALY). Economic and Decision Analysis Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Long-term survival among elderly after burns compared with national mean remaining life expectancy

IntroductionAs compared to younger adults, older people have a greater risk of domestic accidents, such as burns, and their prognosis is worsened by a diminished physiological ability to face a thermal trauma. The in-hospital mortality is adversely affected by old age and burn size, whereas less is known about the long-term-survival in elderly patients who survive a burn injury. The aim of this study was to investigate if elderly burn patients after discharge from a Swedish National Burn Centre have a shorter remaining life compared to the national population, by using calculated remaining Life Expectancy (rLE). MethodsIn this retrospective study we included all patients who were admitted for burns to the Linköping Burn Centre during 1993–2016 and who were 60 years or older and alive, at the time of discharge. The control group was extracted from Statistics Sweden, the national statistics database, and consisted of all individuals from the Swedish population matched for each patient in the study group, by sex and age at the year of discharge. The proportion who died before reaching the rLE was compared between the study population and the control group by calculating risk ratio. ResultsThe study group consisted of 111 former patients and 77 of them (69%) died before reaching the rLE, with mean 4.7 years of life lost (YLL), which was 33% more than that (52%) of the control group (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.51). Burn related factors, such as TBSA % or FTB % were not found to account for this effect. ConclusionWe found that the long-time survival of elderly patients after burns is shorter than that of a national control, the magnitude of which is quantitatively important. The current study does not support that burn related factors account for this effect and the reason should therefore be sought in other factors, such as e.g., co-morbidity or psychosocial issues.

Gompertz law revisited: Forecasting mortality with a multi-factor exponential model

This paper provides a flexible way to address some ongoing challenges in mortality modeling, with a special focus on the mortality curvature and possible mortality plateau for extremely old ages. In particular, we extend the Gompertz law by proposing a multi-factor exponential model, a framework that is able to capture flexible mortality patterns, and allows for a convenient estimation and prediction algorithm. An extensive empirical analysis is conducted using the proposed framework with a merged mortality database containing a large number of countries and regions with credible old-age mortality data. We find that the proposed exponential model leads to superior goodness-of-fit to historical data, and better out-of-sample forecasting performance. Moreover, the exponential model predicts more balanced mortality improvements across ages, and thus leads to higher projected remaining life expectancy for the old ages than existing Gompertz-based mortality models. Finally, the modeling capacity of the proposed exponential model is further demonstrated by a multi-population extension, and an illustrative example of estimation and forecast is provided.

Years of Life Lost to Death—A Comprehensive Analysis of Mortality in Germany Conducted as Part of the BURDEN 2020 Project

Knowing which diseases and causes of death account for most of the years of life lost (YLL) can help to better target appropriate prevention and intervention measures. The YLL in Germany for specific causes of death were estimated as part of the BURDEN 2020 project at the Robert Koch Institute. Data from cause-of-death statistics were used for the analysis. ICD codes were grouped into causes of death categories at different levels of disaggregation. The YLL were estimated by combining each cause of death with the remaining life expectancy at the age of death. Deaths and YLL were compared by sex, age category, and regional distribution. Approximately 11.6 million years were estimated to be lost in Germany in 2017, of which 42.8% were lost by women and 57.2% by men. The largest number of YLL were due to (malignant) neoplasms (35.2%), followed by cardiovascular diseases (27.6%), gastrointestinal diseases (5.8%), and neurological diseases (5.7%). Deaths at younger ages had a greater impact on population health if expressed in YLL: the death share of persons under age 65 was 14.7%, but the years of life lost in this age group amounted to 38.3% of all YLL. The most common causes of death in this group include accidents, self-injury and violence, malignant neoplasms, and alcohol-related diseases. A large proportion of YLL is borne by young and middle-aged persons. These findings emphasize the need to introduce preventive strategies early in life to reduce the YLL at younger ages, as well as to prevent risk factors for diseases in older ages.

Association Between Subjective Remaining Life Expectancy and Advance Care Planning in Older Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study

ContextAdvance care planning (ACP) becomes more relevant with deteriorating health or increasing age. People might be more inclined to engage in ACP as they feel that they are approaching end of life. The perception of approaching end of life could be quantified as subjective remaining life expectancy (SRLE). ObjectivesFirst, to describe the prevalence of ACP with health care providers or written directives (“formal engagement in ACP”) and ACP with loved-ones (“informal engagement in ACP”) among older persons in the general population in The Netherlands. Second, to assess the association between SRLE and engagement in ACP. MethodsCross-sectional study using data from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) measurement wave of 2015–2016. Participants (n = 1585) were aged ≥ 57 years. ResultsMedian age was 69.4 years (IQR: 64.1–76.7), and median SRLE 25.9 years (17.7–36.0). Formal engagement in ACP was present in 32.6%, informal without formal engagement in 45.8%, and 21.6% was not engaged in ACP. For respondents with SRLE < 25 years, there was a nonstatistically significant association between SRLE and engagement in ACP (aOR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.93–1.01; P= .088), and a statistically significant, small association with formal vs. informal engagement in ACP (aOR: 0.96; 0.93–0.99; P= .009). For respondents with SRLE ≥ 25 years there was no association between SRLE and engagement in ACP. ConclusionThe perception of approaching end of life is associated with higher prevalence of formal engagement in ACP, but only for those with SRLE < 25 years. For clinicians, asking patients after their SRLE might serve as a starting point to explore readiness for ACP.

Healthy life expectancy by frailty state in Europe from 2004 to 2015: findings from SHARE.

As populations age, the possible consequences of increased frailty are a major concern for the health sector. Here, we investigate how life expectancy with and without frailty has changed during a 10-11-year-period across Europe. The Sullivan method was used to investigate changes in life expectancy with and without frailty in 10 European countries. Frailty status (non-frail, pre-frail and frail) was determined by use of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Frailty Instrument (SHARE-FI). Data on frailty prevalence was obtained from 21698 individuals in wave 1 (2004-05) and 38859 individuals in wave 6 (2015) of the SHARE. Information on mortality was obtained from the Eurostat Database. In 2015, women aged 70 spent 25.0% (95% CI: 24.0-26.1) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state, and the number for men was 11.5% (95% CI: 10.7-12.3). Southern Europeans spent 24.2% (95% CI: 22.9-25.4) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state and the numbers for Central Europeans and Northern Europeans were 17.0% (95% CI: 16.0-17.9) and 12.2% (95% CI: 10.9-13.5), respectively. From 2004-05 to 2015, life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (from 15.3 to 16.4 years) for 70-year-old Europeans. Similarly, non-frail life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (95% CI: 0.8-1.4), whereas no significant changes in life expectancy in frail states were observed. This study suggests that Europeans today spend more years in a non-frail state than Europeans did 10-11 years ago. Our findings reflect a considerable inequality by gender and region.

Risk of cause-specific death, its sex and age differences, and life expectancy in post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus.

The aim was to investigate sex- and age-stratified risks of cause-specific death and life expectancy in individuals with post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM). Nationwide data on mortality in New Zealand were obtained. For two head-to-head comparisons (PPDM versus type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM]; PPDM versus type 1 diabetes mellitus [T1DM]), the groups were matched on age, sex, and calendar year of diabetes diagnosis. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to estimate risks of vascular, cancer, and non-vascular non-cancer mortality. Remaining life expectancy at age of diabetes diagnosis was estimated using the Chiang II method. A total of 15,848 individuals (1,132 PPDM, 3,396 T1DM, and 11,320 T2DM) were included. The risks of vascular mortality and non-vascular non-cancer mortality did not differ significantly between PPDM and T2DM or T1DM. PPDM was associated with a significantly higher risk of cancer mortality compared with T2DM (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.63) or T1DM (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.13). The risk of cancer mortality associated with PPDM (versus T2DM) was significantly higher in women than in men (p for interaction = 0.003). This sex difference in cancer mortality risk was also significant in the comparison between PPDM and T1DM (p for interaction = 0.006). Adults of both sexes with PPDM had the lowest remaining life expectancy (in comparison with T2DM or T1DM) up to 64years of age. People with PPDM have a higher risk of cancer mortality compared with those with T2DM or T1DM. This is especially pronounced in women. Young and middle-aged adults with PPDM have a lower life expectancy compared with their counterparts with T2DM or T1DM.