Price Of Red Chili Research Articles

Efficiency analysis of red chili farming in Pidie Jaya Aceh

The application of production management is very important in farming, this is reflected in the farming of red chili as one of the contributing commodities to inflation in Indonesia. chili is a commodity that has the most fluctuating price movements, where the price indicator is a reference for a farmer in planting red chili, therefore a farmer must be able to determine the time and carry out production management, one of which is the efficiency of production factors where this efficiency ultimately affects the the amount of income received by farmers. The purpose of this study is to determine what factors affect production, factors that have been economically efficient and factors that affect income in the red chili farming in Pidie Jaya Regency. This study uses Cobb Douglas efficiency analysis and income analysis. The factors that influence the production of red chilli farming in Bandar Baru and Trienggadeng Districts in Pidie Jaya Regency consist of seeds, compost, NPK, urea, KCL, TSP, pesticides and labor where the magnitude of the influence of the variable reaches 94.9%. The efficiency of production factors, namely compost, and KCL are not efficient, so it needs to reduce production factors, while seeds, NPK, urea, TSP, pesticides and labor are not efficient so need the addition of production factors. The influence of the factors of the amount of production, the selling price of red chili and production costs to the income of the farming of red chili in the District of Bandar Baru and the District of Trienggadeng in the District of Pidie Jaya that is equal to 91.90%.

Dynamics of Price Growth of Curly Red Chili and Red Chili in Kolaka District

This study aims to: 1) Identify the price data pattern of Curly Red Chili and red chilies in Kolaka Regency; 2) Obtain the best time series forecasting method for forecasting the price of Curly Red Chili and ordinary red chilies in Kolaka Regency; 3) Get a forecast for the price of Curly Red Chili and regular red chilies for the coming year. This type of research is descriptive quantitative, the source of the data in this study is secondary data obtained from the office of industry and trade, Kolaka district. The data analysis method used is the time series forecasting method.The results showed that: 1) The results of the identification of data patterns on the plot of price data for Curly Red Chili and common red chilies in Kolaka Regency in 2015-2019 obtained a seasonal pattern. 2) The results of the application of the time series forecasting method for the price of curly red chilies, obtained the best time series forecasting method, namely the box-jenkins method of the SARIMA (1,0,0) (2,0,0) 12 model with the smallest MSE value, namely MSE = 41,534 590 While for the price of ordinary red chilies, the best time series forecasting method is the box-jenkins method of the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) 12 model with the smallest MSE value, namely MSE = 44,764,512. 3) The results of forecasting the price of Curly Red Chili using the box-jenkins method SARIMA (1,0,0) (2,0,0) 12 with the help of the MINITAB 19 program is the highest price of IDR 47,355.4 / Kg which occurred in August 2020 and the lowest price is IDR 23,169 / Kg which occurred in January 2020, while the average price of Curly Red Chili in 2020 is IDR 32,487.3 / Kg. While the results of forecasting the price of ordinary red chilies using the box-jenkins method with the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) 12 model with the help of the MINITAB 19 program is the highest price of Rp. 32,967.8 / Kg which occurred in August. 2020 and the lowest price is IDR 16,756.4 / Kg which occurred in December 2020, while the average price of ordinary red chili in 2020 is IDR 23,346.27 / Kg.

Analisis Penawaran Cabai Rawit (Capsicum frutscens L.) di Kabupaten Boyolali

The study aims to determine chili pepper’s supplies factors, the dominant factors, the elasticity of supply and disaster mitigation by farmers around the slopes of Mount Merapi in Boyolali District. The research was located in Boyolali District. Multiple linear regression is applied to analyze the data. The result shows that the amount of chili pepper production, the price of chili pepper, the price of red chili and the harvested area have significant effect on supply of chili pepper while the variable price of ZA fertilizer and rainfall are not significant. The variable of harvested area is the dominant factor in the supply of chili pepper. The elasticity of supply for the amount of chili pepper production, the price of chili pepper and red chili both in short and long term are inelastic, because the value of elasticity are less than 1. Meanwhile the variable of harvested area is elastic, because the value of elasticity in the short term and long term are 1,024 and 1,166. There is no disaster mitigation carried out by the farmers if volcano eruption of Mount Merapi occurs.

FLUKTUASI HARGA CABAI MERAH DI MASA PANDEMI COVID 19 DI KOTA JAMBI

The Covid-19 pandemic has stopped community activities. Since last March, various aspects of life in this country have been suspended animation to remote areas including Jambi Province. The stretching routine that fades during the corona pandemic has slowed down the economy. In Jambi, the indicator for the decline in the economic graph can be seen from the shift in the value of inflation / deflation, which reflects movements in the prices of goods / services on the market. A horticultural commodity that is widely developed and is one of the people's needs is red chili. This has resulted in the level of demand for red chili that continues to occur, and at certain times the price of red chili has increased, for example in the new year or during the Eid al-Fitr. This study aims to see the development of the price of large red chilies and curly red chilies and to analyze the differences in price fluctuations of large red chilies and curly red chilies in the city of Jambi. This research was carried out during the Covid 19 pandemic. The study focused on the description of the price of large and curly red chilies in the Angso Duo market, the Talang Banjar market and the Simpang Pulai market. The data collected is a time series in the form of data on the price development of chilies from January to June 2020. The data collected is secondary data in this study, obtained from literature and related agencies, namely the Department of Industry and Trade, Market Service, Central Agency Statistics. In this study using a desk study data collection method. The results showed that in general at the beginning of 2020 there was a difference in the price of curly red chilies in Jambi City from Rp. 40,467, - / kg and there was a decrease to Rp. 15,647, - / kg in June with a decrease of about 61%. This price reduction also applies to large red chilies, which decreased by 55% from Rp. 30,500, - / kg in January to Rp. 13. 647, - / kg in June. The coefficient of variance of large red chilies is 0.38 while curly red chilies are 0.40. The coefficient of variance in plain view shows a difference where the coefficient of variance of the price of curly red chilies is higher than the coefficient of variance of the price of large red chilies. but statistically these two variance coefficients do not show a significant difference.

PREDIKSI HARGA CABAI MERAH MENGGUNAKAN SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION

The aim of the research is to make a model to predict the national price of the red chili pepper using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Data used to make model are the price of red chili from January 2017 to December 2019. For finding the best parameter of the hyperplane, the research uses Grid Search Algorithm. The best parameter of the hyperplane is C=1000, epsilon=5, and Gamma =1 . The result shows the MAPE for data training is 4.07% and the MAPE for data testing is 9.11%.

ANALISIS ARIMA DAN WAVELET UNTUK PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH BESAR DI JAWA TENGAH

Time series is a type of data collected according to the sequence of times in a certain time span. Time series data can be used as a predictor of future conditions. Analysis of time series data, one of the ARIMA units, is a parametric method that requires an assumption to get valid results. Data stationarity is one of the factors that must be fulfilled. Wavelet is a non-parametric method that is able to represent time and frequency information simultaneously, so that it can analyze non-stationary data. This research presents forecasting the price of red chili in Central Java using ARIMA and wavelet with the approach of the Multiscale Autoregressive (MAR) model. The best model is the one with the smallest MSE value. The results showed that the ARIMA(0,1,1) model was said to be the best model with MSE = 2252142. However, because the assumption of normality is not fulfilled, an alternative process is done with wavelet. Wavelet approach results show that the MAR model Haar filter level (j) = 4 with MSE = 2175906 is better than Daubechies 4 filter 4 level (j) = 1 with MSE = 3999669. Therefore, the Haar wavelet is considered better in the time series analysis. Keyword : ARIMA, wavelet, MAR, forecasting, MSE

PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH MENGGUNAKAN MODEL VARIASI KALENDER REGARIMA DENGAN MOVING HOLIDAY EFFECT (STUDI KASUS: HARGA CABAI MERAH PERIODE JANUARI 2012 SAMPAI DENGAN DESEMBER 2019 DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT)

Chili is one of the vegetable commodities that has high economic value, because of it’s role is large enough to supply domestic needs as an export commodity in the food industry. The price of red chilliesalways increase in the month of Eid al-Fitr. This is due to the large number of people who use Red Chili as food they consume. Shifting the moon during the Eid al-Fitr will form a seasonal system with different periods, which became known as the Moving Holiday Effect. One of the calendar variation models used to eliminate the Moving Holiday Effect and has a simple processing flow is the RegARIMA model. The RegARIMA model is a combination of linear regression with ARIMA. In the regression model the weighting matrix is used as an independent variable and the price of red chili as the dependent variable. The weight value is obtained based on the number of days that affect Eid, which is 14 days. Based on the analysis the red chili price data in West Java Province with the period of January 2012 to December 2018, the RegARIMA model (1.0,0)(0,1,1) 12 is the best model because it has the smallest AIC. Forecasting results in 2020 showed an increase in the price of red chili in West Java occurred in May to coincide with the Eid al-Fitr holiday which fell on May 24, 2020, the sMAPE value obtained by 24.96%. It means, the forecast still in the level of reasonableness.

PENGARUH HARGA KOMODITI PANGAN TERHADAP INFLASI DI KOTA MEDAN

Inflation greatly affects the regional economy. It can be enlarge positively and negatively. When considering a high area it has negative influence, which is considered to have an influence. If in a low area, it must be something positive that can be encourage improvement for the better. This study aims to analyze the majority of changes in food prices to conversion in Medan. The data used in this study are time series data from January 2014 to August 2019, the data used are secondary data consisting of the development of monthly food prices and data analysis method used is VAR or VECM analysis. The result showed, in the short term inculding several variables that influence the price of rice one month earlier, the price of rice two months before, the price of red chili one month before, the price of red chili two months before, the price of cayenne pepper one month before, the price of cayenne pepper two month before, The price of onion two month before, the price of garlic two months before, one better variable length is a red chili.

Trend Analysis of Red Chili Price-Formation Models

Red chili’s characteristic flavor has been a popular element in Indonesian cuisine. A large and continuous demand for red chili is inconsistent with production volumes, causing frequent and extreme price fluctuations throughout the year. This study explores the changing trends in red chili prices to identify the influencing factors. The study was conducted in the Sleman district of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Time-series datasets of monthly production rates and prices of chili for 3 years were subject to multiple linear regression analysis. The study found a rising trend in prices in the Sleman Regency from January 2014 to December 2016. The factors significantly influencing the red chili prices was the price of cayenne pepper. The production cost of chili, the price of tomatoes, and the price of chili for the previous 2 months had only partial and nonsignificant effects. The timing of great Muslim celebrations, such as Eid Al-Fitr and Eid Al-Adha had no significant effect on the price of red chili. However, Christmas and New Year events were associated with higher prices.

Impact of contract farming on price: a case study of red chili farmers in Magelang regency

Contract farming is a price control through the agreement of sale arrangement between farmer and firm taken before the starting of production process. Red chili price has a great fluctuation due seasonal production. The objective of the study is to analyze the influence factors red chili price on contract farming. The study compares the constraints on participation, and the impact to the price of red chili between contract and non-contract of farmers. The study carried out in Magelang District, Central Java Province on June to August 2019. Survey method was used with purposive sampling method to 45 respondent of non-contract farmers and 40 respondent for contract farmer. The data analysis used were statistical t-test and coefficient of variation. The results of the study indicated that farmer with contract farming has the minimum price of IDR 9000 per kg and increasing following market price, while the selling price of non-contract farming based on the market price which always fluctuated. Factors affect contract farmers are offering fixed price, and market guarantee while the non-contract farmers are least of information about contract farming. Contract farming should be promoted to sustain chili production and farmer income.

ANALISIS PERMINTAAN CABAI RAWIT MERAH (Capsicum frutescens) DI KABUPATEN SEMARANG

Red cayenne papper is a food ingredient that has a high demand at the level of household consumers. Demand for red cayenne is influenced by several factors. Factors demand for red cayenne papper were red cayenne papper prices, curly red chili prices, household consumer income, number of family members and consumer tastes. The research aimed to analyze the determinant factors of red cayenne papper demand and to analyze elasticity of demand of red cayenne pepper in Semarang Regency. The research location determined by purposive. Survey method was used with Quota sampling to select 90 respondents from 3 District in Semarang Regency with the criteria of highest, medium and low red cayenne pepper production. Respondents taken by snowball method. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression. Regression analyzed showed that independent variabels simultaneosly significant on dependent variabel. Partially the income of consumers, the number of family members and consumer tastes significantly influence the demand for red cayenne pepper. While the price of red cayenne pepper and curly red chili did not significantly affect the demand for red cayenne pepper. Red cayenne pepper elasticity was elastic 0.135 and categorized as normal goods. The income elasticity was 0.317. Curly red chili was substitutes red cayenne pepper with elasticity 0.122.

ANALISIS PENGARUH DAERAH PEMASOK TERHADAP HARGA CABAI MERAH DI DKI JAKARTA MENGGUNAKAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM)

This study aims to analyze the effect of red chili price and production in the supplier area on its prices in DKI Jakarta using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used in this study are red chili price and average expenditure per month per capita in DKI Jakarta and red chili price and production in East Java, West Java, and Banten in the period January 2012 to July 2018. The model obtained was VECM (1) the price of red chili in DKI Jakarta. It showed that there was a long-term relationship (cointegration) on the first difference. The results the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis showed that the contributions of the red chili price in DKI Jakarta and West Java, average monthly expense for red chili in DKI Jakarta, red chili production (West Java and Banten) are significant in explaining the behaviour of the red chili price change in DKI Jakarta. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis showed that the shock of the price of chili in DKI Jakarta and West Java in the previous month will increase the price of red chili in DKI Jakarta in the following month. Conversely, the shock of the average monthly expenditure of red chili in DKI Jakarta and red chili production (West Java and Banten) from the previous month will reduce the price of red chili in DKI Jakarta in the following month.

DAMPAK ERUPSI GUNUNG SINABUNG TERHADAP PRODUKSI DAN HARGA CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annum L.) (Desa Beganding, Kecamatan Simpang Empat, Kab. Karo)

This research aims at (1) finding the effects before and after the eruption of Sinabung mountain on production of red chili (Capsicum annumL.) in research area, (2) finding the effects before and after the eruption of Sinabung mountain on price of red chili (Capsicum annumL.), (3) finding the income of red chilli ((Capsicum annumL.) after the eruption of Sinabung mountain in research area. This research was conducted in Beganding village, Simpang Empat Sub-district, Karo regency, province of Sumatera Utara. Research sample was done by using Simple Random Sampling as many as 35 respondents from the total population 167 families. Method of data analysis was by paire sample t-test to find the difference between production and price of red chili(Capsicum annum L.)both before and after the eruption of Sinabung mountain and analysis of red chili farmers’ income. Research findings show that there is a significant effect of red chili production in research area both before and after the eruption of Sinabung mountain. The production of red chili before the eruption of Sinabung mountain is as many as 1.932 kg/farmer > 1.342 kg/farmer (after the eruption of Sinabung mountain) in which the difference is 2.237 kg/farmer. The income of chili farming before and after the eruption of Sinabung mountain was categorized “low” and the comparison indicator is UMK Karo Regency in 2017. It is Rp 2.051.267/month, meanwhile UMK Karo regency is Rp 2.619.234,41.

Forecasting Model Selection of Curly Red Chili Price at Retail Level

Chilli is one of strategic commodity in Indonesia due to its contribution to inflation level. For this reason, future price information is very importance for designing price policy. Future price merely can be provided by conducting a price forecasting. Various forecasting models can be applied for this purpose; the problem is which the best model for forecasting is. This study aims to select the most accurate forecasting model of curly red chili prices at the retail level. The data used are monthly data, from 2011 - 2017. Five forecasting models are applied and estimated including Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, and ARIMA. The best model is selected based on the smallest MAPE, MSE and MAD values. The results show that the most accurate forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,9).

Pengaruh Permintaan Cabai Merah Terhadap Pendapatan Kelompok Tani Cabai Di Kabupaten Labuhanbatu

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of demand for red chili (annum L capsicum) on farmer group income. The basis of the research was carried out by fluctuations in the price of red chili caused by the large number of offers and the large number of requests. This research was conducted in Labuhanbatu District, in Wonosari Neighborhood, Aek Paing Village, North Rantau District, Labuhanbatu Regency, North Sumatera Province. The number of samples used was 30 respondents as users of red chili. The results of this study by conducting data testing using SPSS 20.0 can be concluded that from the calculation of regression which states that the income of farmers group of chili heavily very influential on consumer demand in the village of Aek Paing, so that existing chili farmers can increase the production capacity of chili which is good to meet the needs of the community in the village of Aek Paing. This shows a very strong and positive degree because the value is in the number 0.9 close to 1 this means very strong influence the demand for the farmer group's income. Where as with the value of R square of 0.988, this means that the effect of variables X1- X3 simultaneously (simultaneously) to variable Y of 98.8%. The income variable of farmers in the Wonosari neighborhood of Aek Paing Sub-district of Labuhanbatu Regency is influenced by the demand varieties of red chilli, while the remaining 1.02 percent is influenced by other variables outside the model.

DINAMIKA PERKEMBANGAN HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annuum L) DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

Red chili prices in the market tend fluctuate over time. Development of red chilli in centers production included at Jember Regency continue to be made, but production still fluctuate and have not been able to meet market demand. Condition fluctuation production with uncertainty price needs to corrected immediately. Information of price and production need as solution to cope with fluctuation of red chili price. The research method used analytical descriptive method. Location chosen by purposive method at Jember Regency. The research used secondary time series data 2012 until 2016. Analytical tools used probability analysis and plot, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis with double log model. The results showed that (1) production and prices red chili fluctuate every quarterly. The highest red chili price at farmers and consumers level occurred in the fourth quarter and the lowest in the second quarter. Red chili highest production in fourth quarter and lowest in first quarter. (2) Trend production and prices of red chili on 2017 until 2018 fluctuated and increased. (3) Factors that significantly affect of red chili supply are red chili production in previous month and harvested area.

DINAMIKA PERKEMBANGAN HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annuum L) DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

Red chili prices in the market tend fluctuate over time. Development of red chilli in centers production included at Jember Regency continue to be made, but production still fluctuate and have not been able to meet market demand. Condition fluctuation production with uncertainty price needs to corrected immediately. Information of price and production need as solution to cope with fluctuation of red chili price. The research method used analytical descriptive method. Location chosen by purposive method at Jember Regency. The research used secondary time series data 2012 until 2016. Analytical tools used probability analysis and plot, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis with double log model. The results showed that (1) production and prices red chili fluctuate every quarterly. The highest red chili price at farmers and consumers level occurred in the fourth quarter and the lowest in the second quarter. Red chili highest production in fourth quarter and lowest in first quarter. (2) Trend production and prices of red chili on 2017 until 2018 fluctuated and increased. (3) Factors that significantly affect of red chili supply are red chili production in previous month and harvested area.

Strategi Pemasaran Cabai Merah Pada Sub Terminal Agribisnis Manik Mekar Nadi

The Marketing Strategies of Red Chili at Sub Terminal AgribusinessManik Mekar NadiRed chili is one type of commercial vegetable that has long been cultivated in Indonesia. STA Manik Mekar Nadi has implemented marketing strategies to market its agricultural production, especially red chili. The purpose of the study was to analyze the internal and external factors, as well as the right strategies to be carried out by STA Manik Mekar Nadi in the marketing of red chili. The choice of location was done purposively and the number of the key informants was seven peoples. Results of research of marketing strategies of red chili showed that the internal factors include: the strength factors, namely, its strategic location, complete facilities, regular customers, and the guaranteed quality of red chili, while the weakness factors, namely, lack of capital, perishable products, unable to meet the demand, not using the services / advertising in the mass media. External factors include: opportunity factors, namely increasing purchasing power of consumers, government supports, increased domestic market demand, and technological development support, while the threat factors, namely, the emergence of new similar competition, consumers ‘sensitivity to price changes, fluctuations in the price of red chili at the local farmers, and the stronger bargaining power of consumers. The strategies adopted by STA Manik Mekar Nadi in marketing the red chili are to maintain the quality of red chili, to expand markets and product distribution, to increase the production of red chili, to have capital loans, promotion of technology, product standardization, standardization of prices, to expand business networks, to increase operational facilities, to maintain the stability of prices at the consumer level, and to increase the stock of red chili. The STA Manik Mekar Nadi is recommended to apply for financial assistance to the government, to add transportation and to enlarge the warehouse, as well as to conduct promotion.

PERILAKU HARGA DAN KETERPADUAN PASAR CABAI MERAH KERITING (Capsicum annuum) DI PROVINSI BENGKULU

This research aims to measure of price behavior, market integration and market leader of the red chili in Bengkulu Province. Monthly series of 2006 to 2011 were used as sample data in this analyzing research. The data were from secondary of the monthly average price of red chili. They were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Agriculture in Bengkulu Province. The variables which were research included red chili price in the market producer Curup and market consumer Panorama, Minggu, Purwodadi and Ampera. The price behavior applied descriptive statistical analysis, to see the fluctuation of price applied the coefficient of variation formula. The analysis of market integration and marked leader applied the method of co-integration and Granger causality test (Engle and Granger model (1987)). The results of the price behavior showed price of red chili commodity is relative fluctuation. The value of the coefficient of variation (CV) in the consumers area (CV = 42,35%) is smaller than in the producer area (CV = 64,41%). The price of red chili in producer area more fluctuation than the prices in the consumers area. The result of market integration showed a strong level of market integration between market producer Curup and consumer Panorama, Minggu, Purwodadi and Ampera. Besides it, the strong level of integration also between the inter-market consumer Panorama, Minggu, Ampera and Purwodadi. Market leader for commodity red chili in Bengkulu Province is market consumer Panorama.Keywords: Marketing Red Chili, Price Behavior, Market Integration and Market Leader