Abstract
Inflation greatly affects the regional economy. It can be enlarge positively and negatively. When considering a high area it has negative influence, which is considered to have an influence. If in a low area, it must be something positive that can be encourage improvement for the better. This study aims to analyze the majority of changes in food prices to conversion in Medan. The data used in this study are time series data from January 2014 to August 2019, the data used are secondary data consisting of the development of monthly food prices and data analysis method used is VAR or VECM analysis. The result showed, in the short term inculding several variables that influence the price of rice one month earlier, the price of rice two months before, the price of red chili one month before, the price of red chili two months before, the price of cayenne pepper one month before, the price of cayenne pepper two month before, The price of onion two month before, the price of garlic two months before, one better variable length is a red chili.
Highlights
PENDAHULUAN Fluktuasi harga komoditas pangan terjadi secara cepat
This study aims to analyze the majority of changes in food prices to conversion in Medan
The data used in this study are time series data from January 2014 to August 2019, the data used are secondary data consisting of the development of monthly food prices and data analysis method used is Vector Autoregressive (VAR) or Vector Error Corection Model (VECM) analysis
Summary
Abstrak Inflasi sangat berpengaruh terhadap perekonomian suatu daerah. Apabila inflasi pada suatu daerah tinggi maka mempunyai pengaruh negatif, dimana perekonomian dirasakan lesu. Apabila inflasi pada suatu daerah rendah maka mempunyai pengaruh positif yang artinya dapat mendorong perekonomian menjadi lebih baik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis berapa besar pengaruh perubahan harga pangan terhadap inflasi di Kota Medan. Dalam jangka pendek terdapat beberapa variabel yang mempengaruhi inflasi yaitu harga beras satu bulan sebelumnya, harga beras dua bulan sebelumnya, harga cabai merah satu bulan sebelumnya, harga cabai merah dua bulan sebelumnya, harga cabai rawit satu bulan sebelumnya, harga cabai rawit dua bulan sebelumnya, harga bawang merah dua bulan sebelumnya dan harga bawang putih dua bulan sebelumnya. Jangka panjang terdapat satu variabel yang mempengaruhi inflasi yaitu cabai merah.
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