Radius Of Maximum Wind Research Articles

The dynamic and thermodynamic effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity

Several numerical experiments were performed to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The results reveal that the relative SST within a radius of 2–3 times the radius of maximum wind contributes positively and greatly to TC intensity, while the remote SST far away from the TC center could reduce storm intensity. The change of air-sea temperature and moisture differences may be the reason why TC intensity is more sensitive to the relative rather than the absolute SST. As the inflow air moves toward the eyewall, warmer (colder) remote SST can gradually increase (decrease) the underlying surface air temperature and moisture, and thus decrease (increase) the air-sea temperature and moisture differences, which lead to less (more) energy fluxes entering the eyewall and then decrease (increase) the TC intensity and make it less sensitive to the absolute SST change. Finally, with all the related dynamic and thermodynamic processes being taken into account, a schematic diagram for the effects of relative SST and absolute SST on TC intensity is proposed.

천리안 위성 적외 영상 자료를 이용한 태풍의 최대풍속반경 산출 및 통계적 특성

The objective methods estimating the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of tropical cyclones (TCs) are discussed using infraed (IR) imagery of geostationary satellite, and an alternative method is suggested that can estimate RMW in the TCs having eyes using IR imagery. The RMW-estimating methods are based on the characteristic structure of the eyewall of a tropical cyclone. RMW is dependent upon the radius of the eye and the distance from the center to the top of the most developed convective cloud. In order to test these methods, blackbody brightness temperature of Korean geostationary satellite, COMS (Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite) IR imagery are utilized in this study. The estimated RMWs are compared with surface winds of ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) of a polar orbiting satellite.

REAL-TIME ASSESSMENT OF WAVE AND SURGE RISK DUE TO LANDFALLING HURRICANES

In this work, a probabilistic framework is presented for real-time assessment of wave and surge risk for hurricanes approaching landfall. This framework has two fundamental components. The first is the development of a surrogate model for the rapid evaluation of hurricane waves, water levels, and runup based on a small number of parameters describing each hurricane: hurricane landfall location and heading, central pressure, forward speed, and radius of maximum winds. This surrogate model is developed using a response surface methodology fed by information from hundreds of pre-computed, high-fidelity model runs. For a specific set of hurricane parameters (i.e., a specific landfalling hurricane), the surrogate model is able to evaluate the maximum wave height, water level, and runup during the storm at a cost that is more than seven orders of magnitude less than the high fidelity models and thus meet time constraints imposed by emergency managers and decision makers. The second component to this framework is a description of the uncertainty in the parameters used to characterize the hurricane, through appropriate probability models, which then leads to quantification of hurricane-risk in terms of a probabilistic integral. This integral is then efficiently computed using the already established surrogate model by analyzing thousands of different scenarios (based on the aforementioned probabilistic description). Finally, by leveraging the computational simplicity and efficiency of the surrogate model, a simple stand-alone PC-based risk assessment tool is developed that allows non-expert end users to take advantage of the full potential of the framework. An illustrative example is presented that considers applications of these tools for hurricane risk estimation for Oahu. The development of cyber-infrastructure at the University of Notre Dame to further support these initiatives is also discussed.

HAWAII HURRICANE WAVE AND SURGE MODELING AND FAST FORECASTING

The US Army Corps of Engineers' Surge and Wave Island Modeling Studies developed a fast forecasting system for hurricane waves and inundation in Hawaii. The system is based on coupled high-resolution, high-fidelity simulations of waves and surge applying the SWAN and ADCIRC numerical models on a 2D finite-element grid. Additionally, wave runup is simulated on high-resolution cross-shore transects using the Boussinesq-equation model BOUSS-1D. Approximately 1500 storms were simulated to cover the range of hurricane parameters of landfall location, track angle at landfall, central pressure, forward speed, and radius of maximum winds expected to impact Hawaii. To create a forecast system that is fast and robust, a moving least-squares response surface surrogate model was developed based on the high-fidelity model results. The surrogate model is approximately seven orders of magnitude faster than the high-fidelity simulations. The efficiency of the surrogate model allows both deterministic and probabilistic simulations in seconds to minutes on a personal computer.

A Study on the Synoptic-Dynamical Characteristics of Compact Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Abstract This study focuses on the synoptic and dynamical characteristic of compact and incompact tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific. To identify the distinct mechanisms related to the development and maintenance of these two categories of TCs, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate the compact Typhoon Yutu (2007) and the incompact Typhoon Manyi (2007). Simulation results of Yutu show that the wind speed increases primarily in the inner-core region, where strong relative vorticity and high inertial stability is also located. Comparatively, the inertial stability for Typhoon Manyi is much weaker, which makes it more susceptible to influences from external low-level forcing. Diagnoses of the numerical simulations as well as examination of the synoptic environments that embed the two TCs suggest that compact TCs mainly develop through internal dynamics, whereas incompact TCs are usually driven by external forcing. Several sets of sensitivity experiments are designed to determine the relative roles of initial vortex structure, environmental flow, and humidity in subsequent TC structural evolution. Results show that in an environment that favors compact TCs, initial vortex largely determines the later structural development. However, vortex development is quite sensitive to its initial intensity and the radius of maximum wind (RMW) under environmental flow that favors incompact TCs. Results of the experiments on environmental humidity show that a humid environment generates large vortex structural changes in incompact TCs. A relatively dry environment brings minimal impacts to the originally compact TC, but can increase the compactness of the originally incompact ones.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Structures of Hurricane Boundary Layer in Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Models and Observations

Abstract It is widely accepted that air–sea interaction is one of the key factors in controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. However, the physical mechanisms for connecting the upper ocean and air–sea interface with storm structure through the atmospheric boundary layer in TCs are not well understood. This study investigates the air–sea coupling processes using a fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean model, especially the coupling-induced asymmetry in surface winds, sea surface temperature, air–sea fluxes, and their impacts on the structure of the hurricane boundary layer (HBL). Numerical experiments of Hurricane Frances (2004) with and without coupling to an ocean model and/or a surface wave model are used to examine the impacts of the ocean and wave coupling, respectively. Model results are compared with the airborne dropsonde and surface wind measurements on board the NOAA WP-3D aircraft. The atmosphere–ocean coupling reduces the mixed-layer depth in the rear-right quadrant due to storm-induced ocean cooling, whereas the wind–wave coupling enhances boundary inflow outside the radius of maximum wind. Storm motion and deep tropospheric inflow create a significant front-to-back asymmetry in the depth of the inflow layer. These results are consistent with the dropsonde observations. The azimuthally averaged inflow layer and the mixed layer, as documented in previous studies, are not representative of the asymmetric HBL. The complex, three-dimensional asymmetric structure in both thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the HBL indicates that it would be difficult to parameterize the effects of air–sea coupling without a fully coupled model.

Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based Parametric Model

Abstract This study presents an analysis of near-surface (10 m) inflow angles using wind vector data from over 1600 quality-controlled global positioning system dropwindsondes deployed by aircraft on 187 flights into 18 hurricanes. The mean inflow angle in hurricanes is found to be −22.6° ± 2.2° (95% confidence). Composite analysis results indicate little dependence of storm-relative axisymmetric inflow angle on local surface wind speed, and a weak but statistically significant dependence on the radial distance from the storm center. A small, but statistically significant dependence of the axisymmetric inflow angle on storm intensity is also found, especially well outside the eyewall. By compositing observations according to radial and azimuthal location relative to storm motion direction, significant inflow angle asymmetries are found to depend on storm motion speed, although a large amount of unexplained variability remains. Generally, the largest storm-relative inflow angles (<−50°) are found in the fastest-moving storms (>8 m s−1) at large radii (>8 times the radius of maximum wind) in the right-front storm quadrant, while the smallest inflow angles (>−10°) are found in the fastest-moving storms in the left-rear quadrant. Based on these observations, a parametric model of low-wavenumber inflow angle variability as a function of radius, azimuth, storm intensity, and motion speed is developed. This model can be applied for purposes of ocean surface remote sensing studies when wind direction is either unknown or ambiguous, for forcing storm surge, surface wave, and ocean circulation models that require a parametric surface wind vector field, and evaluating surface wind field structure in numerical models of tropical cyclones.

Finescale Structure of the LaGrange, Wyoming, Tornado during VORTEX2: GBVTD and Photogrammetric Analyses

Abstract A ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) analysis of the LaGrange, Wyoming, tornado on 5 June 2009 during the Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) is photogrammetrically combined with a series of pictures of the funnel cloud. This analysis reveals the relationship between the vertical velocity, radial and tangential velocities, perturbation pressure, vertical vorticity, and angular momentum with the visual features of the tornado. An intense axial downdraft was evident and was supported by a downward-directed perturbation pressure gradient. The radial inflow at low levels was weak and difficult to retrieve owing to a combination of centrifuging of hydrometeors/debris in the intense circulation and the inability of the radar beam to fully resolve the flow. The tornado was weakening during the analysis period, which was supported by angular momentum being advected out of the tornado. The availability of a dual-Doppler wind synthesis for this tornadic event provided a unique opportunity to assess the assumptions in the GBVTD methodology. The analysis suggests that the simplified GBVTD equations that have been applied in past studies of tornadoes are not appropriate in the present case. The most accurate retrieval of the radial velocities requires that a higher-order term that is typically neglected be retained. A quantitative assessment of the impact of centrifuging of hydrometeors on the synthesized wind field was attempted. The results suggest that the radial and vertical velocity profile near and within the tornado core can be significantly altered for tornadoes (EF2) that are accompanied by a small radius of maximum wind and relatively weaker low-level inflow.

Rapid Intensification of a Sheared, Fast-Moving Hurricane over the Gulf Stream

Abstract Hurricane Irene (1999) rapidly intensified from 65 to 95 kt (~33.4 to 48.9 m s−1) in 18 h. During the rapid intensification (RI) period, the northeastward storm motion increased from 10 to 18 m s−1, the ambient southwesterly vertical wind shear increased from 6–7 to 10–13 m s −1, and the downshear tilt of the inner core vortex increased. The azimuthal wavenumber-1 asymmetric convection that developed was consistent with a superposition of shear-induced and storm motion–induced forcing for vertical motion downshear and ahead of the center. Although the diabatic heating remained strongly asymmetric, it was of sufficient intensity to dramatically increase the azimuthally averaged heating. This heating occurred almost entirely inside the radius of maximum winds, a region known to favor rapid warm core development and spinup of the vortex. It is hypothesized that asymmetric forcing from the large vertical wind shear and rapid storm motion were responsible for RI. An unanswered question is what determines whether the heating will develop within the radius of maximum winds. Extraordinarily deep cells developed in the inner core toward the end of the RI period. Rather than causing RI, these cells appeared to be an outcome of the same processes noted above.

A Comparison of Inner and Outer Spiral Rainbands in a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone

Abstract The simulated inner and outer spiral rainbands in a tropical cyclone are compared in this study. The inner rainbands are generally active immediately outside the eyewall in the rapid filamentation zone, while the outer rainbands are active in regions outside about 3 times the radius of maximum wind. The inner rainbands are characterized by the convectively coupled vortex Rossby waves. The movement of the outer rainbands follows the low-level vector winds associated with the azimuthally averaged low-level flow and the radially outward cross-band flow caused by the downdraft-induced cold pool in the boundary layer. Convective cells in outer rainbands are typical of convective systems and move cyclonically and radially outward (inward) at large (small) radii. Net upward vertical mass transports (VMTs) appear throughout the depth of the troposphere in the whole inner-rainband region, while net downward VMTs are found below 4-km height in the outer-rainband region. In the whole inner-rainband region, only a very shallow layer with net horizontal convergence appears below 2-km height, while a deep layer with net convergence is found below 7.5-km height with net divergence aloft in the outer-rainband region. The inner rainband shows two tangential wind maxima, respectively, located near the top of the inflow boundary layer and immediately below the upper-tropospheric outflow layer. A secondary horizontal wind maximum occurs at about 4-km height on the inner edge of the outer rainband. Distinct features of the upwind, middle, and downwind sectors of the outer rainband are also discussed.

Rapid Assessment of Wave and Surge Risk during Landfalling Hurricanes: Probabilistic Approach

A probabilistic framework is presented for evaluation of hurricane wave and surge risk with particular emphasis on real-time automated estimation for hurricanes approaching landfall. This framework has two fundamental components. The first is the development of a surrogate model for the rapid evaluation of hurricane waves, water levels, and run-up based on a small number of parameters describing each hurricane: hurricane landfall location and heading, central pressure, forward speed, and radius of maximum winds. This surrogate model is developed using a response surface methodology fed by information from hundreds of precomputed, high-resolution Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) + Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal and Estuarine Waters (ADCIRC) and One-Dimensional Boussinesq Model (BOUSS-1D) runs. For a specific set of hurricane parameters (i.e., a specific landfalling hurricane), the surrogate model is able to evaluate the maximum wave height, water level, and run-up during the storm at a cost that is more than seven orders of magnitude less than the high-fidelity models and thus meets time constraints imposed by emergency managers and decision makers. The second component of this framework is a description of the uncertainty in the parameters used to characterize the hurricane through appropriate probability models, which then leads to quantification of hurricane risk in terms of a probabilistic integral. This integral is then efficiently computed using the already established surrogate model by analyzing thousands of different scenarios (based on the aforementioned probabilistic description). This allows the rapid computation of, for example, the storm surge that might be exceeded 10% of the time based on hurricane parameters at 48 h from landfall. Finally, by leveraging the computational simplicity and efficiency of the surrogate model, a simple stand-alone PC-based risk-assessment tool is developed that allows nonexpert end users to take advantage of the full potential of the framework. The proposed framework ultimately facilitates the development of a rapid assessment tool for real-time implementation but requires a considerable upfront computational cost to produce high-fidelity model results. As an illustrative example, implementation of hurricane risk estimation for the Island of Oahu in Hawaii is presented; results demonstrate the versatility of the proposed approach for delivering accurate tools for real-time hurricane risk estimation that have the ability to cross over technology adoption barriers.

Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the life cycle of tropical cyclones in terms of a K‐Vmax diagram. Such a diagram summarizes the time evolution of the integrated kinetic energy K and the maximum tangential wind Vmax, which respectively measure vortex size and intensity. A typical life cycle consists of an incipient stage in which K and Vmax slowly increase until Vmax≈25 m s−1, a deepening stage in which K and Vmax increase more rapidly until Vmax≈60 m s−1, and finally a mature stage in which K continues to grow at approximately the same rate while Vmax remains fixed or even decreases. This typical life cycle can be diagnostically analyzed using a theoretical argument that is based on the balanced vortex model and, in particular, on the associated geopotential tendency equation. This is a second order partial differential equation containing the diabatic forcing and, under idealized conditions, two spatially varying coefficients: the static stability and the inertial stability, whose ratio determines the local Rossby length ℓ. Thus, the balanced azimuthal wind and temperature tendencies in a tropical vortex depend not only on the diabatic forcing, but also on the spatial distribution of ℓ. Under the simplifying assumption that the diabatic heating and the associated response are confined to the first internal vertical mode, the geopotential tendency equation reduces to a radial structure equation, which can be solved numerically. These solutions illustrate how the vortex response to diabatic heating depends on whether this heating lies in the large Rossby length region outside the radius of maximum wind or in the small Rossby length region inside the radius of maximum wind. Tangential wind tendencies are found to be hypersensitive to the location of the diabatic heating relative to the small Rossby length region in the vortex core.

Formation and Quasi-Periodic Behavior of Outer Spiral Rainbands in a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone*

Abstract The formation and quasi-periodic behavior of outer spiral rainbands in a tropical cyclone simulated in the cloud-resolving tropical cyclone model version 4 (TCM4) are analyzed. The outer spiral rainbands in the simulation are preferably initiated near the 60-km radius, or roughly about 3 times the radius of maximum wind (RMW). After initiation, they generally propagate radially outward with a mean speed of about 5 m s−1. They are reinitiated quasi-periodically with a period between 22 and 26 h in the simulation. The inner spiral rainbands, which form within a radius of about 3 times the RMW, are characterized by the convectively coupled vortex Rossby waves (VRWs), but the formation of outer spiral rainbands (i.e., rainbands formed outside a radius of about 3 times the RMW) is much more complicated. It is shown that outer spiral rainbands are triggered by the inner-rainband remnants immediately outside the rapid filamentation zone and inertial instability in the upper troposphere. The preferred radial location of initiation of outer spiral rainbands is understood as a balance between the suppression of deep convection by rapid filamentation and the favorable dynamical and thermodynamic conditions for initiation of deep convection. The quasi-periodic occurrence of outer spiral rainbands is found to be associated with the boundary layer recovery from the effect of convective downdrafts and the consumption of convective available potential energy (CAPE) by convection in the previous outer spiral rainbands. Specifically, once convection is initiated and organized in the form of outer spiral rainbands, it will produce strong downdrafts and consume CAPE. These effects weaken convection near its initiation location. As the rainband propagates outward farther, the boundary layer air near the original location of convection initiation takes about 10 h to recover by extracting energy from the underlying ocean. Convection and thus new outer spiral rainbands will be initiated near a radius of about 3 times the RMW. This will be followed by a similar outward propagation and the subsequent boundary layer recovery, leading to a quasi-periodic occurrence of outer spiral rainbands. In response to the quasi-periodic appearance of outer spiral rainbands, the storm intensity experiences a similar quasi-periodic oscillation with its intensity or intensification rate starting to decrease after about 4 h of the initiation of an outer spiral rainband. The results provide an alternative explanation or one of the mechanisms that are responsible for the quasi-periodic (quasi-diurnal) variation in the intensity and in the area of outflow-layer cloud canopy of observed tropical cyclones.

A Subtropical Cyclonic Gyre Associated with Interactions of the MJO and the Midlatitude Jet

This paper describes a large cyclonic gyre that lasted several days in the northwest Pacific during July 1988. Cyclonic winds at 850 hPa extended beyond the 2000-km radius with a radius of maximum winds of 700–800 km. The gyre exhibited clear skies within and north of its center. Active convection extended 4000 km in longitude to its south. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was in its active phase in the Indian Ocean prior to gyre formation. Consistent with earlier studies, diabatic heating in the MJO was associated with an anomalous upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the northeast Asian coast and a jet exit region over the northwest Pacific. Repeated equatorward wave-breaking events developed downwind of the jet exit region. One such event left behind a region of lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and convection in the subtropics that played a key role in the gyre formation. A second wave-breaking event produced strong subsidence north of the mature gyre that contributed to its convective asymmetry. Gyres from 1985 and 1989 were compared to the 1988 case. All three gyres developed during an active MJO in the Indian Ocean. Each gyre displayed the same strong convective asymmetry. Each developed in July or August during the climatological peak in breaking Rossby waves in the northwest Pacific. Finally, all of the gyres developed during La Niña at nearly the same location. This location and the convective structure of the gyres closely matched composite La Niña anomalies during boreal summer.

Joint distribution model for prediction of hurricane wind speed and size

Abstract This paper suggests a methodology for characterizing the joint distribution of hurricane intensity (maximum wind speed) and size (radius of maximum winds). Such a model represents an extension of traditional wind hazard models by including joint information on the critical spatial dimension. Typically, the hurricane hazard is described in terms of maximum wind speed Vmax (at the eye-wall), since damage descriptors associated with intensity scales (e.g., the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale) and collateral hazards (e.g., hurricane surge) are related most often to maximum wind speed. However, recent studies have shed light on the importance of storm size (i.e., radius of maximum wind, Rmax) in describing the hurricane wind field and thus the spatial extent of potential damage. The large losses from several recent hurricanes underscore the need for better understanding the impact of storm size on damage. To that end, we seek to develop event parameter combinations (e.g., Vmax and Rmax) that define “characteristic” risk-consistent hurricanes in one particular geographic region. A simulation framework is developed to generate 10,000 years of simulated hurricane events and a synthetic hurricane wind speed database for the state of Texas, using state-of-the-art hurricane modeling techniques and information extracted from historical hurricane data. The resulting 10,000 years database, which includes information developed for every zip-code in Texas, includes time of hurricane passage, maximum gradient wind speed and surface wind speed. Using this simulation framework, selected parameters (i.e., intensity and size parameters) are recorded for each hurricane at the time of landfall along the Texas coast. Using a hurricane decay model specifically calibrated for this location, parameters Vmax and Rmax at inland locations also are recorded. The critical values of Vmax and Rmax are then selected to jointly describe the intensity and spatial extent of hurricanes and the joint histogram is developed. Finally, these variables are statistically characterized and a suite of the characteristic Vmax and Rmax combinations corresponding to certain hazard levels are identified. The proposed methodology can be used to develop characteristic hurricane hazard definitions (and event parameter combinations corresponding to specific hazard levels) for use in performance-based engineering applications.

Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites

Abstract The multiscale inner-core structure of mature tropical cyclones is presented via the use of composites of airborne Doppler radar analyses. The structure of the axisymmetric vortex and the convective and turbulent-scale properties within this axisymmetric framework are shown to be consistent with many previous studies focusing on individual cases or using different airborne data sources. On the vortex scale, these structures include the primary and secondary circulations, eyewall slope, decay of the tangential wind with height, low-level inflow layer and region of enhanced outflow, radial variation of convective and stratiform reflectivity, eyewall vorticity and divergence fields, and rainband signatures in the radial wind, vertical velocity, vorticity, and divergence composite mean and variance fields. Statistics of convective-scale fields and how they vary as a function of proximity to the radius of maximum wind show that the inner eyewall edge is associated with stronger updrafts and higher reflectivity and vorticity in the mean and have broader distributions for these fields compared with the outer radii. In addition, the reflectivity shows a clear characteristic of stratiform precipitation in the outer radii and the vorticity distribution is much more positively skewed along the inner eyewall than it is in the outer radii. Composites of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) show large values along the inner eyewall, in the hurricane boundary layer, and in a secondary region located at about 2–3 times the radius of maximum wind. This secondary peak in TKE is also consistent with a peak in divergence and in the variability of vorticity, and they suggest the presence of rainbands at this radial band.

Objective Tropical Cyclone Center Tracking Using Single-Doppler Radar

AbstractThis study presents an extension of the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD)-simplex tropical cyclone (TC) circulation center–finding algorithm to further improve the accuracy and consistency of TC center estimates from single-Doppler radar data. The improved center-finding method determines a TC track that ensures spatial and temporal continuities of four primary characteristics: the radius of maximum wind, the maximum axisymmetric tangential wind, and the latitude and longitude of the TC circulation center. A statistical analysis improves the consistency of the TC centers over time and makes it possible to automate the GBVTD-simplex algorithm for tracking of landfalling TCs. The characteristics and performance of this objective statistical center-finding method are evaluated using datasets from Hurricane Danny (1997) and Bret (1999) over 5-h periods during which both storms were simultaneously observed by two coastal Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) units. Independent single-Doppler and dual-Doppler centers are determined and used to assess the absolute accuracy of the algorithm. Reductions of 50% and 10% in the average distance between independent center estimates are found for Danny and Bret, respectively, over the original GBVTD-simplex method. The average center uncertainties are estimated to be less than 2 km, yielding estimated errors of less than 5% in the retrieved radius of maximum wind and wavenumber-0 axisymmetric tangential wind, and ~30% error in the wavenumber-1 asymmetric tangential wind. The objective statistical center-finding method can be run on a time scale comparable to that of a WSR-88D volume scan, thus making it a viable tool for both research and operational use.

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

Abstract This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (~3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward-moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Appraisal of the prevalence of severe tropical storms over Indian Ocean by screening the features of tropical depressions

Tropical cyclones are one of the nature’s most violent manifestations and potentially the deadliest of all meteorological phenomena. It is a unique combination of violent wind, heavy rainfall, and mountainous waves in sea. The maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and the radius of maximum winds are important parameters for understanding a particular tropical cyclone and to differentiate it from a depression to tropical storms. The objective of this particular paper is to identify a possible range of maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and radius of maximum winds which facilitates tropical depressions to lead to tropical storms over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea of Indian Ocean basin. The method of rough set theory which is based on condition—decision support system is implemented for the purpose. The result reveals that the threshold ranges of the maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure and radius of maximum winds associated with tropical depression are possible that can aid in the predictability of tropical storm over Indian Ocean. The results are validated with significant tropical storms of 2009 and 2010 observations through Doppler and satellite imageries.

Simple Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure via Pressure Gradients

Abstract In 1980 the Holland tropical cyclone (TC) wind profile model was introduced. This simple model was originally intended to estimate the wind profile based on limited surface pressure information alone. For this reason and its relative simplicity, the model has been used in many practical applications. In this paper the potential of a simplified version of the Holland B parameter, which is related to the shape of the tangential wind profile, is explored as a powerful diagnostic tool for monitoring TC structure. The implementation examined is based on the limited information (maximum wind, central pressure, radius and pressure of the outer closed isobar, radii of operationally important wind radii, etc.) that is typically available in operational models and routine analyses of TC structure. This “simplified Holland B” parameter is shown to be sensitive to TC intensity, TC size, and the rate of radial decay of the tangential winds, but relatively insensitive to the radius of maximum winds. A climatology of the simplified Holland B parameter based on historical best-track data is also developed and presented, providing the expected natural ranges of variability. The relative simplicity, predictable variability, and desirable properties of the simplified Holland B parameter make it ideal for a variety of applications. Examples of how the simplified Holland B parameter can be used for improving forecaster guidance, developing TC structure tools, diagnosing TC model output, and understanding and comparing the climatological variations of TC structure are presented.