HAWAII HURRICANE WAVE AND SURGE MODELING AND FAST FORECASTING

Abstract

The US Army Corps of Engineers' Surge and Wave Island Modeling Studies developed a fast forecasting system for hurricane waves and inundation in Hawaii. The system is based on coupled high-resolution, high-fidelity simulations of waves and surge applying the SWAN and ADCIRC numerical models on a 2D finite-element grid. Additionally, wave runup is simulated on high-resolution cross-shore transects using the Boussinesq-equation model BOUSS-1D. Approximately 1500 storms were simulated to cover the range of hurricane parameters of landfall location, track angle at landfall, central pressure, forward speed, and radius of maximum winds expected to impact Hawaii. To create a forecast system that is fast and robust, a moving least-squares response surface surrogate model was developed based on the high-fidelity model results. The surrogate model is approximately seven orders of magnitude faster than the high-fidelity simulations. The efficiency of the surrogate model allows both deterministic and probabilistic simulations in seconds to minutes on a personal computer.