Protective Action Decision Model Research Articles

Modelling evacuation decision-making in the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Gatlinburg, TN

As wildfires occurring at the wildland–urban interface (WUI) continue to become more severe, there is an increasing need to understand human behaviour in these situations, and evacuation decision-making in particular. To contribute to this understanding, an online survey (using both mail and online sampling methods) was disseminated to households impacted by the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Tennessee. The survey instrument measured pre-event variables such as awareness of fire risks and previous experience with evacuations as well as the types of warnings and fire cues received during the event, with a focus on factors known to impact evacuation decisions and risk perception. Using linear and logistic regression analyses, it was found that fire cues and receiving warnings from a trusted source influenced risk perceptions leading up to an evacuation decision. In line with the Protective Action Decision Model, risk perception also highly influenced evacuation decisions, along with other variables, i.e. gender and prior preparation actions. Results from this work provide support for findings from previous wildfire evacuation research as well as produce some novel findings, along with several methodological recommendations, which will be further explored.

Disaster risk reduction: Psychological perspectives on preparedness

Facilitating people's ability to anticipate, prepare for and recover from disaster is an important component of the UNISDR strategy for disaster risk reduction. Following a discussion of the functional characteristics of preparedness, this paper first discusses how hazard characteristics and psychological constructs influence people's ability to anticipate uncertain future events. It then reviews how psychological theories (Health Belief Model, Protection Motivation Theory, PrE Theory, Theory of Planned Behaviour, Critical Awareness Theory, Social Marketing, Protective Action Decision Model, Social Capital, Community Engagement Theory and Social Identity Theory) can inform understanding of preparedness for likely and current hazard events. Discussion then then turns to applying concepts and theories to understanding preparedness for current disasters. The all‐hazards and cross‐cultural applicability of preparedness theory is discussed, as are a need for a critical appraisal of preparedness, its predictors, and the nature and development of the preparedness process and its application in facilitating effective intervention strategies.

Cumulative disaster exposure, gender and the protective action decision model

The relationship between gender, disaster exposure, and the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is explored through a survey administered to 326 Gulf Coast residents following the Deep-Water Horizon oil spill. Structural Equation Modeling was used to find that disaster exposure demonstrated a significant negative effect on PADM, such that greater exposure was associated with lower scores (g = −3.09, p < .001). Similarly, gender was a significant covariate in the model, such that being female was associated with an increase in scores (g = 0.33, p < .05). This work highlights the relationships between gender, cumulative disaster exposure, and the PADM.

Drought Early Warning and the Timing of Range Managers’ Drought Response

The connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. This study investigates U.S. Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. The study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged. External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. Though this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. This study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management.

Information processing in the “not-in-my-backyard” strategy: An empirical study of anti-nuclear behavioral responses

Nuclear power has become an effective way of addressing environmental challenges such as resources depletion and climate change and is consistent with a strategy of sustainable development. However, popular resistance has increased significantly because the potential accident risk poses a tremendous threat to people, property and ecosystems. This study explored the key determinants of the behavioral response to nuclear power plants. The protective action decision model and the heuristic-systematic information processing model were integrated and adapted to construct a hypothetical model emphasizing the important role of information processing strategies in the “not-in-my-backyard” phenomenon. The research verified the arguments by randomly conducting 405 questionnaires. The empirical results show that risk perception and information need are both important in predicting information seeking and behavioral response. Additionally, the results suggest a mediating role of information processing in the relationship between information seeking and behavioral response. Moreover, the results show that systematic processing is different from heuristic processing. Specifically, systematic processing is positively influenced by information seeking and has a negative influence on anti-nuclear behavioral response, but heuristic processing is negatively correlated with information need and positively correlated with behavioral response. Theoretical contributions, policy implications and further research are also discussed.

Air pollution and green consumption of consumers in China’s urban areas: a norm activation perspective

This study aims to explore how consumers’ psychological factors affect their pro-environment purchasing behavior in a smog-ridden city. Based on the Protective Action Decision Model and Heuristic–Systematic Model, this study proposed a model to investigate consumers’ decision-making process in purchasing green anti-smog products. It also provided new empirical evidence for the role of personal norms on consumers’ green consumption behavior by examining the differences between two groups of consumers (i.e., green and non-green) through a multi-group path analysis. The predictions were tested using a questionnaire survey of 1,124 participants living in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China. Results indicated that product knowledge, smog knowledge, risk perception, and systematic processing positively affected consumers’ purchase intention. In addition, the significant differences of consumers with various personal norms in purchase decision-making were found in the current study. In the green group, product knowledge positively affected consumers’ risk perceptions and systematic processing intentions. Information seeking increased their purchase intentions. However, these relationships were not significant in the non-green group. This study contributes to the existing literature by linking consumers’ protective behaviors with green consumption and providing a comprehensive model for predicting consumers’ purchase decisions.

Americans' Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues.

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective-action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans' behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior-specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel-related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January-February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.

Online Hazard Maps, Risk Communication, Acceptance and Usage Continuance Intention Model: A Selected Review of Literature

Abstract. The rapid progress of communication and information technology, as well as geospatial technology in the last decades, has noticeably altered the manner in which spatial information about disasters is accessed, stored and disseminated. The Internet broadcasts static maps and interactive mapping about natural hazards, in which as a consequence, the public is now flooded by vast amounts of this cartographic information. However, there are a little theoretical or empirical study concerns how individuals accept online hazard maps as a source of information or a medium of risk communication. As an initial step of further research about the issue, this study, therefore, aims to conduct a systematic review on relevant prior research that can help to construct a model to define how individuals accept and intend to continue using this web-based cartographic communication medium. As a next step, we will extend this model to explain how the acceptance and intention might increase one's awareness of the risks of natural hazards as it subsequently affects decision making on risk reduction behavioral responses. We begin the analysis by reviewing the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as the foundational framework for risk communication. As acceptance and usage intention is commonly described by Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Expectation-Confirmation Theory (ECT), we then comprehensively review selected literature on these notions. Various studies conducted within hazard maps, the Internet and risk communication context were evaluated to identify factors have not been incorporated into prior acceptance and usage models. The result of this study contributes to the theoretical novelty and helps to identify gaps of existing literature in the domains of user acceptance and intention of continue usage of online hazard maps in risk communication.

The influence of parents’ information processing on childhood vaccine acceptance after a vaccine crisis in China

Drawing upon the protective action decision model and the heuristic-systematic model, this study investigated the determinants of parents’ response to the 2016 vaccine crisis in Shandong Province, China. A survey was conducted from Anhui Province (N = 456). The findings showed that both perceived vaccine knowledge and perceptions of risk from the vaccine crisis were vital in predicting parents’ information insufficiency (the perceived discrepancy between actual and desired levels of vaccine knowledge), information seeking, information processing (where parents make a judgement about information validity), and their intentions towards childhood vaccination. In addition, information insufficiency and information seeking also significantly facilitated parents’ information processing. When parents described processing information systematically, they were more likely to accept childhood vaccination. On the other hand, seeking more information about the crisis did not influence reported childhood vaccination practices. Implications and suggestions for health-related crisis communication research are discussed.

Predicting consumers’ adoption of electric vehicles during the city smog crisis: An application of the protective action decision model

Encouraging citizens to adopt Electric Vehicles (EVs) is an effective approach to mitigate the city smog risk caused by motor vehicles. The protection action decision model (PADM) provides a valuable framework to explain adaptive risk behaviors, doing so by employing a wide set of predictors such as the protective action perception, risk perception, and stakeholder perception. In this study, data was collected via questionnaire from 482 participants drawn from EV customers in Beijing. The results show that hazard-related attributes have positive effects on the societal acceptability of EVs in the long run. Resource-related attributes have negative effects on their long-run acceptability and purchase intention. The study revealed that attribute importance moderates the effect of hazard and resource-related attributes on adoption indicators. Additionally, risk perception has positive effects on consumers' adoption indicators, and trustworthiness and the government's responsibility to protect the environment also influence consumer behavior intention.

A Provisional Conceptual Model of Human Behavior in Response to Wildland-Urban Interface Fires

With more frequent and destructive wildfires occurring in the growing wildland-urban interface (WUI), the ability to ensure the safe evacuation of potentially large groups of people is of increasing importance. This is a challenging task made only more difficult by the fact that there is often little warning and that evacuations often need to take place in a short period of time. The creation of credible and effective evacuation models is needed within the fire safety engineering community to help address this challenge. Although potentially difficult to represent, a critical component in developing such models is the consideration of what people will do in response to a WUI fire. In this literature review, research relating to WUI fire evacuations was collected to identify the factors that influence protective action decision-making and response during these events, specifically whether someone chooses to evacuate or not. To supplement the findings, related hurricane evacuation literature was also reviewed for such factors. The factors that were identified relate to sociodemographic factors, social and environmental cues, preparation and experience, familial responsibilities, location, and credible threat and risk assessment. These factors were organized according to the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) to create a conceptual model of protective action decision-making. This is the first step in being able to incorporate such factors and their corresponding impact on public response into comprehensive WUI evacuation models.

Public Attention to Natural Hazard Warnings on Social Media in China

Abstract Hazard warning is vital in disaster management. The rapid development of social media allows warning producers and receivers to exchange warning messages effectively and sufficiently. This study investigates the factors that influence public attention to natural hazard warning information on social media. Drawing from the protective action decision model and framing theory, this study classifies antecedents into three groups, namely, hazard information, publisher’s/reader’s characteristics, and frame setting. To test the hypotheses empirically, we select Sina Weibo, the leading social network in China, as the research context. From this platform, 3452 warning messages issued by authorities in the target area are collected. We code each message based on its attributes that are related to our study for linear regression analyses. Results show that all the factors related to publisher’s/reader’s characteristics exert significant effects on public attention. However, the affected range indicated by a warning message and the formality of the message’s language are not significantly related to public attention to the message.

The protective action decision model: when householders choose their protective response to wildfire

Confronted with an imminent bushfire threat, Australian householders can respond by evacuating, waiting to see what the bushfire does before deciding, or remaining to defend property from the fire. This decision-making is central to householders’ survival because late evacuation has been associated with fatalities. North Americans who seek alternatives to mandatory evacuation from wildfires are confronted with similar choices.Lindell and Perry’s Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) has been extensively used to analyse the behaviour and decision-making of people subject to threat from a wide range of hazards and has acquired the status of a theory of hazard decision-making. It has not been widely used for the study of hazards in Australia. This paper addresses the question of how the PADM can be applied to the analysis of behaviour in Australian bushfires and North American wildfire, and whether the model requires adjusting for effective use in a context where householders choose their protective response rather than having decisions made for them.The paper addresses Australian bushfire policy, which emphasises the dangers of staying to defend during extreme fire weather conditions and promotes leaving early as the safer option but allows householders to decide whether to ‘stay or go’ during a bushfire. This Australian policy approach impacts key elements of the PADM, most importantly how long-run hazard adjustments, preparatory, mitigating and equipping actions, effect the perception of evacuating or remaining. The paper concludes that the PADM should be modified to reflect the complexity of choice confronting Australian bushfire prone householders and North Americans considering alternatives to mandatory evacuation.

Immediate behavioral response to the June 17, 2013 flash floods in Uttarakhand, North India

The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community—an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.

Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas

Many previous studies identified factors influencing hurricane evacuation decisions by testing the protective action decision model (PADM). This study further examines factors that affect the trust in authority’s recommendation and evacuation decision-making in a proposed Kyne–Donner Model. The model provides an understanding of the predictive factors influencing evacuation decision-making through the mediating factor of trust in authority’s recommendation. This study takes advantage of the structural equation modeling method to simultaneously test multi-stages of the model. There are factors, namely, age, gender, education, household size, decision maker, risk area, house materials, hurricane evacuation experience, information seeking frequency, information seeking behavior, and information sources which influence trust in authority’s recommendation which, together with hurricane evacuation impediments, influence the hurricane evacuation decision. The study’s findings are consistent with the PADM and demonstrate the importance of trust in authority’s recommendation and hurricane evacuation decision-making.

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

ABSTRACTAustralian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.

Public risk perception and intention to take actions on city smog in China

ABSTRACTThis study investigates individuals' behavioral intention on city smog. A conceptual model based on the theoretical framework of protective action decision model is proposed in this study to investigate the determinants of individuals' behavioral intention. A face-to-face survey is conducted among residents in two cities with different smog levels to collect empirical data. Results show that the residents of the city with high smog level present low risk perception of smog. Risk perception positively affects behavioral intention. Resource-related attributes play a moderating role in the relationship between risk perception and behavioral intention. Moreover, individuals with low levels of education and income intend to take actions. Implications of the findings are also discussed.

An empirical study of the Volkswagen recall crisis in China: Customer's risk perceptions and behavior responses based on an information flow

ABSTRACTProduct-harm crises usually lead to product recalls, which would attract extensive public concern on the issue of product defects, but it is not yet clear how product recalls influence customers' risk perceptions and behavior responses. In this study, guided by the protective action decision model (PADM) and the heuristic-systematic model (HSM), and through an empirical study involving 467 participants drawn from the customers of Volkswagen, a conceptual model of information flow was developed, which starts from individuals' product experience, strengthening or weakening through information seeking and processing, then directly acts on the risk perception, and ultimately influences protective actions. By using structural equation modeling to test the model, and the results shown that customers' information need, seeking, and processing are significantly related to risk perception, their behavioral intentions (loyalty or boycott) are also significantly influenced by risk perception and product experience. Next, multiple-group analysis is employed to compare the distinctions between two groups of customers (those whose cars belong to the recall, and those not belonging to the recall). Unexpectedly, the role of information processing in the recall group is weaker than that in the not recalled group. At last, theoretical and practical implications and suggestions for further research are also discussed.

Correction to: Cognitive Biases Within Decision Making During Fire Evacuations

The Publisher regrets an error in the original version of this article. In Section 5, under PADM (protective action decision model) classification, “Pre-decision stage” was erroneously listed twice.

Risk knowledge, product knowledge, and brand benefits for purchase intentions: Experiences with air purifiers against city smog in China

ABSTRACTThe present study is based on the theoretical framework of protective action decision model. This study aims to explain the relationship among the risk knowledge, product knowledge, risk perception, and brand benefits and the consumers’ purchase intentions of a specific air purifier compared with alternative brands. The research context is city smog. Results show that consumers’ risk knowledge and product knowledge significantly affect their purchase of an air purifier brand as well as play a considerable role in predicting their risk perception and in foreseeing their purchase intentions under the influence of the manufacturer's advertising strategies. Furthermore, consumers’ risk perception is a critical psychological factor that has a significantly positive influence on brand's experiential benefits, instead of functional and symbolic benefits. In particular, when comparing with brand's functional and symbolic benefits, the brand's experiential benefits is more attractive to consumers and has a stronger effect on consumers’ air purifier purchase intentions in the context of city smog.