Drought Early Warning and the Timing of Range Managers’ Drought Response

Tonya R. Haigh,Jason A. Otkin,Anthony Mucia,Mark E. Burbach,Michael Hayes

doi:10.1155/2019/9461513

Abstract

The connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. This study investigates U.S. Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. The study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged. External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. Though this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. This study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management.

Highlights

E connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. is study investigates U.S Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. e study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged
External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. ough this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. is study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management
E integration of drought early warning into rangeland managers’ coping and adaptive decision-making requires an understanding of the complexity of livestock-rangeland systems and drought response options [9]

Summary

Research Article

E connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. E integration of drought early warning into rangeland managers’ coping and adaptive decision-making requires an understanding of the complexity of livestock-rangeland systems and drought response options [9]. A better understanding of the choices and timing of rangeland managers’ drought coping responses in the context of environmental, social, and early warning cues will enable information providers, risk communicators, and educators/advisors to more effectively provide information that meets decision-maker needs

Materials and Methods

Results and Discussion

Actions taken and mode month

October November December

Mean standardized anomaly

Would have seen less impact if acted differently