Modelling evacuation decision-making in the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Gatlinburg, TN

Abstract

As wildfires occurring at the wildland–urban interface (WUI) continue to become more severe, there is an increasing need to understand human behaviour in these situations, and evacuation decision-making in particular. To contribute to this understanding, an online survey (using both mail and online sampling methods) was disseminated to households impacted by the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Tennessee. The survey instrument measured pre-event variables such as awareness of fire risks and previous experience with evacuations as well as the types of warnings and fire cues received during the event, with a focus on factors known to impact evacuation decisions and risk perception. Using linear and logistic regression analyses, it was found that fire cues and receiving warnings from a trusted source influenced risk perceptions leading up to an evacuation decision. In line with the Protective Action Decision Model, risk perception also highly influenced evacuation decisions, along with other variables, i.e. gender and prior preparation actions. Results from this work provide support for findings from previous wildfire evacuation research as well as produce some novel findings, along with several methodological recommendations, which will be further explored.