Probability Of Dispersal Research Articles

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography

AbstractAimTo provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species‐specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes.InnovationProbabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real‐world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent.ConclusionsBased on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology.

Prioritization of habitat patches for landscape connectivity conservation differs between least-cost and resistance distances

Methods quantifying habitat patch importance for maintaining habitat network connectivity have been emphasized in helping to prioritize conservation actions. Functional connectivity is accepted as depending on landscape resistance, and several measures of functional inter-patch distance have been designed. However, how the inter-patch distance, i.e., based on least-cost path or multiple paths, influences the identification of key habitat patches has not been explored. We compared the prioritization of habitat patches according to least-cost distance (LCD) and resistance distance (RD), using common binary and probabilistic connectivity metrics. Our comparison was based on a generic functional group of forest mammals with different dispersal distances, and was applied to two landscapes differing in their spatial extent and fragmentation level. We found that habitat patch prioritization did not depend on distance type when considering the role of patch as contributing to dispersal fluxes. However, the role of patch as a connector facilitating dispersal might be overestimated by LCD-based indices compared with RD for short- and medium-distance dispersal. In particular, when prioritization was based on dispersal probability, the consideration of alternatives routes identified the connectors that probably provided functional connectivity for species in the long term. However, the use of LCD might help identify landscape areas that need critical restoration to improve individual dispersal. Our results provide new insights about the way that inter-patch distance is viewed changes the evaluation of functional connectivity. Accordingly, prioritization methods should be carefully selected according to assumptions about population functioning and conservation aims.

Social and Environmental Influences on Female White-Tailed Deer Dispersal Behavior

Dispersal behavior is primarily a male-biased behavior in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) throughout the species range. However, in the agriculture-dominated lower Midwest and Great Plains, female dispersal also occurs. We examined the effects of the social and physical environment experienced by female fawns marked in central and northern Illinois, where dispersal rates were high (31%–61%) and forest cover occupied <5% of the county landscape. Dispersal probability was high for females born to subordinate mothers (25 of 26) and for fawns paired with a sibling that also dispersed (25 of 31). Females that dispersed came from populations with similar densities as those of females that remained sedentary. The lower dispersal rate for females born to dominant mothers suggests that the higher resource availability present within the home ranges of dominant mothers affects dispersal behavior. Subordinate mothers generally inhabit smaller, less secure ranges with fewer resources available to offspring. Resource availability appears to be one of the proximate factors influencing female fawn movement behavior.

Dispersal polymorphism in stable habitats

In fragmented but temporally stable landscapes, kin competition selects for dispersal when habitat patches are small, whereas the loss of dispersal is favoured when dispersal is costly and local populations are large enough for kin interactions to be negligible. In heterogeneous landscapes with both small and large patches, contrasting levels of kin competition facilitate the coexistence of low-dispersal and high-dispersal strategies. In this paper, I use both adaptive dynamics and inclusive fitness to analyse the evolution of dispersal in a simple model assuming that each patch supports either a single individual or a large population. With this assumption, many results can be obtained analytically. If the fraction of individuals living in small patches is below a threshold, then evolutionary branching yields two coexisting dispersal strategies. An attracting and evolutionarily stable dimorphism always exists (also when the monomorphic population does not have a branching point), and contains a strategy with zero dispersal and a strategy with dispersal probability between one half and the ESS of the classic Hamilton–May model. The present model features surprisingly rich population dynamics with multiple equilibria and unprotected dimorphisms, but the evolutionarily stable dimorphism is always protected.

Spreading speeds and periodic traveling waves of a partially sedentary integro-difference model

This paper is devoted to the study of spatial dynamics of a class of partially sedentary integro-difference population models in a periodic habitat. For the general case of recruitment functions, we establish the existence and computation formula of spreading speeds. It is shown that the spreading speed is linearly determinate and coincides with the minimal wave speed of periodic traveling waves. Some effects of dispersal kernels, spatially variations and dispersal probabilities on spreading speeds are also investigated.

Climate and density influence annual survival and movement in a migratory songbird.

Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density-dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large-scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark-recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat-specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat-specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark-recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.

Patterns, causes, and consequences of marine larval dispersal

Quantifying the probability of larval exchange among marine populations is key to predicting local population dynamics and optimizing networks of marine protected areas. The pattern of connectivity among populations can be described by the measurement of a dispersal kernel. However, a statistically robust, empirical dispersal kernel has been lacking for any marine species. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to quantify a dispersal kernel for the reef fish Elacatinus lori, demonstrating that dispersal declines exponentially with distance. The spatial scale of dispersal is an order of magnitude less than previous estimates-the median dispersal distance is just 1.7 km and no dispersal events exceed 16.4 km despite intensive sampling out to 30 km from source. Overlaid on this strong pattern is subtle spatial variation, but neither pelagic larval duration nor direction is associated with the probability of successful dispersal. Given the strong relationship between distance and dispersal, we show that distance-driven logistic models have strong power to predict dispersal probabilities. Moreover, connectivity matrices generated from these models are congruent with empirical estimates of spatial genetic structure, suggesting that the pattern of dispersal we uncovered reflects long-term patterns of gene flow. These results challenge assumptions regarding the spatial scale and presumed predictors of marine population connectivity. We conclude that if marine reserve networks aim to connect whole communities of fishes and conserve biodiversity broadly, then reserves that are close in space (<10 km) will accommodate those members of the community that are short-distance dispersers.

Signals of climate, conspecific density, and watershed features in patterns of homing and dispersal by Pacific salmon.

It is widely assumed that rates of dispersal in animal populations are plastic in response to intrinsic and extrinsic cues, yet the factors influencing this plasticity are rarely known. This knowledge gap is surprising given the important role of dispersal in facilitating range shifts that may allow populations to persist in a rapidly changing global climate. We used two decades of tagging and recapture data from 19 hatchery populations of Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Chinook salmon) in the Columbia River, USA, to quantify the effects of regional and local climate conditions, density dependence, watershed features such as area and position on the landscape, and direct anthropogenic influence on dispersal rates by adult salmon during the breeding season. We found that the probability of dispersal, termed "straying" in salmon, is plastic in'response to multiple factors and that populations showed varied responses that were largely idiosyncratic. A regional climate index (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), water temperatures in the mainstem Columbia River that was commonly experience by populations during migration, water temperatures in local subbasins unique to each population during the breeding season, migration distance, and density dependence had the strongest effects on dispersal. Patterns of dispersal plasticity in response to commonly experienced conditions were consistent with gene by environment interactions, though we are tentative about this interpretation given the domesticated history of these populations. Overall, our results warn against attempts to predict future range shifts of migratory species without considering population-specific dispersal plasticity, and also caution against the use of few populations to infer species-level patterns. Ultimately, our results provide evidence that analyses that examine the response of dispersal to single factors may be misleading.

Modeling directional spatio-temporal processes in island biogeography.

A key challenge in island biogeography is to quantity the role of dispersal in shaping biodiversity patterns among the islands of a given archipelago. Here, we propose such a framework. Dispersal within oceanic archipelagos may be conceptualized as a spatio-temporal process dependent on: (1) the spatial distribution of islands, because the probability of successful dispersal is inversely related to the spatial distance between islands and (2) the chronological sequence of island formation that determines the directional asymmetry of dispersal (hypothesized to be predominantly from older to younger islands). From these premises, directional network models may be constructed, representing putative connections among islands. These models may be translated to eigenfunctions in order to be incorporated into statistical analysis. The framework was tested with 12 datasets from the Hawaii, Azores, and Canaries. The explanatory power of directional network models for explaining species composition patterns, assessed by the Jaccard dissimilarity index, was compared with simpler time-isolation models. The amount of variation explained by the network models ranged from 5.5% (for Coleoptera in Hawaii) to 60.2% (for Pteridophytes in Canary Islands). In relation to the four studied taxa, the variation explained by network models was higher for Pteridophytes in the three archipelagos. By the contrary, small fractions of explained variation were observed for Coleoptera (5.5%) and Araneae (8.6%) in Hawaii. Time-isolation models were, in general, not statistical significant and explained less variation than the equivalent directional network models for all the datasets. Directional network models provide a way for evaluating the spatio-temporal signature of species dispersal. The method allows building scenarios against which hypotheses about dispersal within archipelagos may be tested. The new framework may help to uncover the pathways via which species have colonized the islands of a given archipelago and to understand the origins of insular biodiversity.

Biogeographical signature of river capture events in Amazonian lowlands

AbstractAimTo investigate the effects of river capture on the biogeographical history of South American freshwater fishes.LocationWestern Amazon and La Plata basins, and adjacent river drainages.MethodsWe used a species‐dense time‐calibrated phylogeny of long‐whiskered catfishes (Siluriformes, Pimelodidae) to calculate likelihoods for 16 biogeographical scenarios of river capture, each differing in details of (1) landscape evolution and/or (2) models of species range evolution. We designed eight alternative landscape evolution models (LEMs) to represent distinct palaeogeographical river capture histories between the Western Amazon and La Plata drainages during the formation of the Central Andean (Bolivian) orocline (43.0–15.0 Ma). The LEMs differed only in patterns of area‐connectivity constraints through time, and otherwise had the same geographical areas, time durations and dispersal probabilities. We used the DEC and DECj models of species range evolution under these eight LEM constraints to calculate likelihood values for ancestral area estimates.ResultsDivergence time estimates indicated that crown‐group pimelodids emerged during the Late Cretaceous or Palaeogene (c. 72.9 ± 20 Ma) and model‐selection recovered a best‐fit palaeogeographical scenario with (1) a LEM with three river capture events, and (2) a DECj model of species range evolution. These results were quantitatively replicated using Lagrange and BayArea‐like methods.Main conclusionsThe taxon–area chronogram of pimelodids exhibits the characteristic biogeographical signature of river capture; i.e. several non‐monophyletic regional (basin‐wide) species assemblages coupled with the presence of many species inhabiting more than one basin. These phylogenetic and biogeographical patterns are consistent with the effects of three large‐scale river capture events during the formation of the Bolivian orocline.

Suitability index for restoration in landscapes: An alternative proposal for restoration projects

Forest fragmentation constitutes one of the main consequences of land cover change worldwide. Through this process gaps in habitat coverage are created and the ability of populations in the remaining fragments to maintain themselves is put in doubt. Hence, two options need to be considered: conserving the remaining forest fragments, and restoring habitat in some deforested patches with the aim of reestablishing the connections among the fragments. We established a mathematical index (SIR) that describes the suitability of individual habitat patches for restoration within a landscape. The index considers classes of distances among fragments and categories of habitat quality in the areas surrounding the fragments to assess habitat quality in terms of probability of dispersal and survival of propagules (especially seeds and cutting). In the present study, we created detailed maps depicting SIR values for two periods (1988 and 2011) for Sorocaba region (São Paulo State, Brazil). We derived land cover maps from satellite images for the two years of our study, and then surveyed the transition of land cover categories and landscape metrics between years. A model for the SIR was created using a map of distance classes among fragments and also a map of habitat quality established according to each land cover category. For both 1988 and 2011, pasture was the predominant land cover category. The main land cover transitions were from pasture to urban (10.6%) and from pasture to forest fragments (13.4%). Although the land cover class “wood sites” increased, the data of SIR revealed that the areas of habitat categorized as excellent and good both decreased, while habitat classes categorized as poor and very poor increased. Our model has the potential to be applied to other regions where the forest is fragmented. Hence, local policy makers will be able to use this model to determine local patches of high value for conservation and also the most ideal locations for restoration projects.

Population ecology of a California endemic: Speyeria adiaste clemencei

Effective management and recovery of threatened insect populations requires detailed ecological information. Here we combine count and mark recapture (MR) data to shed light on an understudied declining endemic butterfly species in California’s Southern Coast Ranges, Speyeria adiaste. Little is known about the number, size, and dynamics of S. adiaste populations, leaving few data on which to base conservation decisions. Our goal in this study was therefore to provide increased understanding of the population ecology of this species by studying a long-standing S. adiaste clemencei population. Our 2-year MR estimates were highly correlated with Pollard walk counts, and we observed declining population sizes from 2011 to 2014. Adult movements were well-described by a negative exponential function, indicating low probability of dispersal >5 km (probability < 1.8 × 10−7 for both sexes). Males had shorter lifespans than females. Coupled with lack of diapause in this species, the short life span and limited dispersal observed here indicate that S. adiaste clemencei does not have a strong capacity for re-colonization. Population declines in S. adiaste may lead to local extinctions, and together with low dispersal, may diminish connectivity among the apparently small and isolated remaining populations. Further research into the role of adult and larval resources for determining adult abundance, coupled with continued long-term monitoring is necessary in order to understand population dynamics in this declining endemic species.

Infection of an Insect Vector with a Bacterial Plant Pathogen Increases Its Propensity for Dispersal.

The spread of vector-transmitted pathogens relies on complex interactions between host, vector and pathogen. In sessile plant pathosystems, the spread of a pathogen highly depends on the movement and mobility of the vector. However, questions remain as to whether and how pathogen-induced vector manipulations may affect the spread of a plant pathogen. Here we report for the first time that infection with a bacterial plant pathogen increases the probability of vector dispersal, and that such movement of vectors is likely manipulated by a bacterial plant pathogen. We investigated how Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) affects dispersal behavior, flight capacity, and the sexual attraction of its vector, the Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama). CLas is the putative causal agent of huanglongbing (HLB), which is a disease that threatens the viability of commercial citrus production worldwide. When D. citri developed on CLas-infected plants, short distance dispersal of male D. citri was greater compared to counterparts reared on uninfected plants. Flight by CLas-infected D. citri was initiated earlier and long flight events were more common than by uninfected psyllids, as measured by a flight mill apparatus. Additionally, CLas titers were higher among psyllids that performed long flights than psyllid that performed short flights. Finally, attractiveness of female D. citri that developed on infected plants to male conspecifics increased proportionally with increasing CLas bacterial titers measured within female psyllids. Our study indicates that the phytopathogen, CLas, may manipulate movement and mate selection behavior of their vectors, which is a possible evolved mechanism to promote their own spread. These results have global implications for both current HLB models of disease spread and control strategies.

Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.

Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change.

Disentangling the effects of habitat suitability, dispersal, and fragmentation on the distribution of river fishes.

Habitat suitability, dispersal potential, and fragmentation influence the distribution of stream fishes; however, their relative influence and interacting effects on species distributions are poorly understood, which may result in uncertain outcomes of river rehabilitation and conservation. Using empirical data describing 17 relatively common stream fishes, we combine (1) species habitat suitability models (MaxEnt) with a (2) species dispersal model (FIDIMO) and a (3) worst-case scenario of the influence of river fragmentation on dispersal. Using generalized linear mixed models, we aimed to uncover the role of these factors in explaining the probability of presence. Simulations over nine years allowed for assessing the relative importance of dispersal over time for structuring species occurrences vs. the importance of habitat suitability. Models combining all three structuring factors performed consistently better in predicting the spatial occurrence patterns than models including only single factors. Our results confirmed that distribution patterns of stream fishes are jointly controlled by species dispersal and habitat suitability. An increase of 0.1 habitat suitability probability more than doubled the odds of species occurrence; an increase of 0.1 dispersal probability yielded a 14-fold increase of the odds of species occurrence. Temporal simulations revealed that over short time frames (1-2 years) dispersal from nearby source populations is four times more important than habitat suitability for species presence. However, over longer time periods, the importance of habitat suitability increases relative to the importance of dispersal. Surprisingly, fragmentation by migration barriers did not appear as a significant driver of occurrence patterns. Concluding, these findings demonstrate the importance of the spatial arrangement of suitable habitats and potential source populations, as well as their relative position in relation to barriers. We emphasize considering the direction of connections within river networks and the dispersal abilities of fishes, as well as providing (access to) new, suitable habitat for successful river rehabilitation.

Dispersal of a defensive symbiont depends on contact between hosts, host health, and host size.

Symbiont dispersal is necessary for the maintenance of defense mutualisms in space and time, and the distribution of symbionts among hosts should be intricately tied to symbiont dispersal behaviors. However, we know surprisingly little about how most defensive symbionts find and choose advantageous hosts or what cues trigger symbionts to disperse from their current hosts. In a series of six experiments, we explored the dispersal ecology of an oligochaete worm (Chaetogaster limnaei) that protects snail hosts from infection by larval trematode parasites. Specifically, we determined the factors that affected net symbiont dispersal from a current "donor" host to a new "receiver" host. Symbionts rarely dispersed unless hosts directly came in contact with one another. However, symbionts overcame their reluctance to disperse across the open environment if the donor host died. When hosts came in direct contact, net symbiont dispersal varied with both host size and trematode infection status, whereas symbiont density did not influence the probability of symbiont dispersal. Together, these experiments show that symbiont dispersal is not a constant, random process, as is often assumed in symbiont dispersal models, but rather the probability of dispersal varies with ecological conditions and among individual hosts. The observed heterogeneity in dispersal rates among hosts may help to explain symbiont aggregation among snail hosts in nature.

Additions to the Eocene Perissodactyla of the Margaret Formation, Eureka Sound Group, Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada

We describe early Eocene (Wasatchian) occurrences of the isectolophid Homogalax, tapiroids Heptodon posticus, Heptodon cf. H. posticus, and Heptodon sp., as well as early middle Eocene (Bridgerian) fossils of the brontothere Palaeosyops from localities in the Margaret Formation of the Eureka Sound Group on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Arctic Canada. Their occurrence on Ellesmere Island considerably extends the geographic range of these taxa, previously known from mid-latitude localities in British Columbia (only Heptodon), the Western Interior of the United States, and Asia (Homogalax, Heptodon, and Palaeosyops). We also place the fossil localities near Bay Fiord on central Ellesmere Island into a refined lithostratigraphic framework based upon data from three measured stratigraphic sections. Our stratigraphic data confirm the presence of two, stratigraphically distinct fossil assemblages — a late Wasatchian-aged lower assemblage and a Bridgerian-aged upper assemblage that were previously hypothesized by others based on faunal differences — that are separated by a 478 m thick stratigraphic gap that appears to lack fossil vertebrates. From a paleoenvironmental perspective, occurrence of the tapiroid Heptodon in the Eocene Arctic corroborates an hypothesis put forward by others that tapiroids are proxies for densely forested habitats, although they were adapted to a range of temperatures including near (or at) freezing temperatures of Eocene Arctic winters. Further, Arctic occurrences of tapiroids and brontotheres imply that these typical mid-latitude ungulate mammals were adapted to Arctic environments, thereby increasing the probability of Trans-Beringian dispersal during early and middle Eocene time.

QUASI-DETERMINISTIC POPULATION DYNAMICS IN STOCHASTIC COUPLED MAPS

We studied the stochastic dynamics of coupled map lattices for small local populations. Quasi-deterministic dynamics is lost when considering one isolated population or two populations linked by dispersal. In a one-dimensional ring linked by closest neighbors some intermittent synchronization is observed. Finally we show that in two-dimensional lattices long-term synchronization take place above a critical value of the dispersal probability and the system displays a quasi-deterministic dynamics.

Stable coexistence of incompatible Wolbachia along a narrow contact zone in mosquito field populations.

In arthropods, the intracellular bacteria Wolbachia often induce cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) between sperm and egg, which causes conditional embryonic death and promotes the spatial spread of Wolbachia infections into host populations. The ability of Wolbachia to spread in natural populations through CI has attracted attention for using these bacteria in vector-borne disease control. The dynamics of incompatible Wolbachia infections have been deeply investigated theoretically, whereas in natural populations, there are only few examples described, especially among incompatible infected hosts. Here, we have surveyed the distribution of two molecular Wolbachia strains (wPip11 and wPip31) infecting the mosquito Culex pipiens in Tunisia. We delineated a clear spatial structure of both infections, with a sharp contact zone separating their distribution areas. Crossing experiments with isofemale lines from different localities showed three crossing types: wPip11-infected males always sterilize wPip31-infected females; however, while most wPip31-infected males were compatible with wPip11-infected females, a few completely sterilize them. The wPip11 strain was thus expected to spread, but temporal dynamics over 7years of monitoring shows the stability of the contact zone. We examined which factors may contribute to the observed stability, both theoretically and empirically. Population cage experiments, field samples and modelling did not support significant impacts of local adaptation or assortative mating on the stability of wPip infection structure. By contrast, low dispersal probability and metapopulation dynamics in the host Cx.pipiens probably play major roles. This study highlights the need of understanding CI dynamics in natural populations to design effective and sustainable Wolbachia-based control strategies.

Northern Hemisphere origins of the amphi‐Pacific tropical plant family Symplocaceae

AbstractAimWe sought to reconstruct the historical biogeography of the amphi‐Pacific tropical disjunct plant family Symplocaceae in the context of competing Northern Hemisphere (boreotropical) versus Southern Hemisphere (West Gondwanan) hypotheses for its origin and spread.LocationAmericas, western Pacific Rim, fossil localities in Europe.MethodsWe derived a dated phylogeny using a relaxed clock on a data set of 114 terminals, four genic regions (three plastid regions and the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region) and six fossil calibrations. We inferred ancestral geographical ranges with maximum likelihood under a dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis model, with the probability of dispersal constrained by areal distance and palaeogeography.ResultsWe inferred a Eurasian origin for crown‐node Symplocaceae at c. 52 Ma, followed by dispersal to North America (including Mesoamerica) at c. 52–38 Ma. Most of the highest likelihood intra‐American dispersals recovered in the analysis trended from north to south, with none from south to north. Six intra‐American dispersals were inferred to have originated in North America, with lineages either terminating in the Antilles or migrating to South America at various times. One additional North American lineage emigrated back to Eurasia in the late Miocene.Main conclusionsThe predominantly southwards American migrations inferred here for the Symplocaceae conform to the boreotropics hypothesis, apparently driven by cooling and drying climates in the later Cenozoic. The inferred Eurasian origin for the family corroborates a more specific European origin, as suggested independently by its fossil fruit record. Of the lineages ultimately arriving in South America from North America, two are inferred to have migrated through the Antilles (by island‐hopping) and three through Mesoamerica. The timing of one of the Mesoamerican events, inferred to be between 8.9 and 7.5 Ma, implies over‐water dispersal under the prevailing model of Isthmus of Panama formation, but also accords with overland migration under a model of earlier formation.