Cereal Prices Research Articles

Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective

This article investigates what determines the price dynamics of the main cereals: barley, maize, rice and wheat. Using an extensive dataset of monthly time series covering the years 1980–2019, we extract four different common factors explaining the dynamics of commodity prices, exchange rates, financial and macroeconomic indicators. Next, we examine whether these factors are useful in explaining the movements of cereal prices. We show that models incorporating all four factors outperform significantly the naive random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting competition, especially for longer horizons. However, they have only marginally better performance than a simpler model based on the commodity factor alone.

Emergent Properties of Land Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics of Scottish Farming Systems from 1867 to 2020

Dynamics of arable and pastoral farming systems in Scotland over the period 1867–2020 are documented using time series analysis methods, including for nonlinear dynamical systems. Results show arable and pastoral farming, at a national scale, are dynamic over a range of timescales, with medium- and short-term dynamics associated with endogenous system forces and exogenous factors, respectively. Medium-term dynamics provide evidence of endogenous systems-level feedbacks between farming sectors responding to change in world and national cereal prices as an economic driver, and act to dampen impacts of exogenous shocks and events (weather, disease). Regime shifts are identified in national cereal prices. Results show change and dynamics as emergent properties of system interactions. Changes in dynamics and strength of endogenous dampening over the duration of the study are associated with dynamical changes from major governmental policy decisions that altered the boundary conditions for interdependencies of arable and pastoral farming.

Cereal Prices and Child Undernutrition in Ethiopia

This paper looks at how changing cereal prices affect child undernutrition in Ethiopia. It derives height for age (stunting) and weight for height (wasting) as indicators of child undernutrition from the two most recent years of the Living Standards Measurement Survey and utilises market prices for key cereals, teff, wheat, and maize in enumeration areas across all regions of the country. Using a panel data fixed effects model, the analysis finds that, contrary to previous studies, rising cereal prices are positively associated with improved child stunting rates for children between ages 6 months and 5 years. There is no evidence to suggest that cereal prices have a significantly greater impact on height for age for children that come from households who are net sellers of these crops. Cereal prices do not appear to be associated with wasting, which is a short-term negative health outcome.

International Trade Economic Analysis for Indian Agriculture during WTO Regime: Effects on Production, Exports, Imports and Poverty

The law of comparative advantage is the cornerstone of international trade. Economic growth, agriculture, poverty reduction and trade have a very complicated relationship. Trade analysis helps any country to discover profitable opportunities; hence the study has undertaken with these objectives. To analyze agricultural trade growth, responsiveness, stability and estimate the effects on production, exports, imports and poverty and suggest polices for boosting Trade. The major agricultural commodities from 1990-91 to 2015-16 were selected. Estimated CAGR, Instability Index, Export import price elasticity’s and regression. During the period 1990-91 to 2015-16, wheat export price and rice import price growth rates were found to be more than other cereals. The imports price growth rate of all pulses were more than exports price growth rates indicating India is importing at higher prices. Among the oilseeds crops, mustard import price (11.05 %) and sunflower export price (7.85 %) growth rates are more. The export import quantity growth rate of all cereals, pulses, and oilseeds were found to be positive except rice imports, wheat exports and soybean imports which were negative. Export import prices of all cereals (except maize) and all pulses were found to be unstable. Import price of all oilseed crops were found to be stable (except mustard and sesamum). The study found that among cereals, pulses and oilseeds, rice (1.24 %), peas (2.36 %) and mustard (0.97 %) have high export elasticities indicating these crops highly responsive to change in international prices. The effect of trade on poverty shows that, production for cereals and pulses, import price for pulses and oilseeds, export price for all the 3 groups have adverse impact on Poverty. Only for oilseeds, production and trade balance have positive and significant effect on poverty. The effect of trade on poverty shows that, export price on all cereals, pulses, oilseeds have adverse impact on poverty. Only for oilseeds, production and trade balance have positive and significant effect on poverty. Thus import prices of cereals, quantity of imports for pulses and export prices of cereals, pulses and oilseeds need to be thoroughly examined and pre-requisite actions as well as policy measures are required. The study advocates that India should design self-reliance policies in pulse production as India is importing pulses at higher prices. India also should design new stable foreign price policy for cereals and pulses as export import prices of all cereals and all pulses were found to be unstable.

Current state and trends in the global grain market

Food production and agriculture play a key role in providing the world’s population with food. A special place in the world food market is given to the grain complex, which occupies an important position in the system of world agri-food markets and is a strategic branch of the national economy of each individual country. This article assesses the current state and conjuncture of the world grain market based on the analysis of statistical data on the production, consumption, trade and prices of cereals, as well as on the basis of studying reviews and reports of leading analytical agencies, in particular FAO reports. In view of the relevance of recent events related to the experienced global economic shock, an assessment of the impact of the global pandemic on the world grain market is given. The forecasts of further growth of the world grain market and the subsequent position of its leading participants are presented. It is concluded that the markets for major cereals are well secured, the outlook for global production and consumption is generally positive, and that cereal trade is expected to grow, but at a slower pace. Large exporters and importers of cereals will maintain their leading positions with some possible changes in their participation shares. The main trends in the development of the world market for cereals are listed and disclosed, associated mainly with population growth, increased yields, changes in consumption patterns, expansion of the livestock sector, technological progress, the functioning of global value chains and the actions of large participants in relation to state and tariff regulation of the grain complex.

La crisis agraria de 1878-1881 en León

In this paper, the influence of the agrarian crisis between 1879 and 1881 on the economy and society in León (Spain) is described. Whith the data provided by the newspapers about de prices of cereals, the lack of fluidity in the marketing of basic products during the crisis as well as the social response to it: the debate around the social issue, the socialism, and the charitable and educative enterprises emerging in those years is analyzed.

On the Application of Generalized Beta-G Family of Distributions to Prices of Cereals

Generalized Beta-G family of distributions proposed has alternative distributions to unbounded distributions for modeling price returns. In contrast to Gaussian and other unbounded distributions that take values from , Generalized Beta-G family of distributions takes values from so as to properly contain only positive valued observations like that of price returns. In line with this, Nine (9) befitting candidates of the Generalized Beta-G family of distributions were proposed and subjected to monthly prices of cereals. Chen distributional random noise outstripped other candidates of the Generalized Beta-G family of distributions to produce minimum monthly standard deviations of 0.2686 (26.86%), 0.2572 (25.72%), 0.2404 (24.40%), 0.2267 (22.67%), 0.2257 (22.57%), 0.2544 (25.44%), 0.2343 (23.43%), 0.2391 (23.91%), 0.2273 (22.73%) and 0.2465 (24.65%) for prices of Rice, Maize, Sorghum, Millet, G-corn, Cowpea, Groundnut, Beans, Wheat and Cassava respectively. Chen and Loglogistic distributional random noises are the leading candidates among the Generalized Beta-G family of distributions in modelling price returns of the cereals, followed by Fréchet, Weibull and Birnbaum-Saunders random noises in order of significant. Lomax and Linear Failure Rate (LFR) are the ineffective random noises in modeling the price returns.

Where and when are plantations established? Land-use replacement patterns of fast-growing plantations on agricultural land

The location of fast-growing plantations for energy reveals valuable information concerning farmers' preferences and land use change patterns, necessary to have adequate environmental and economic assessments. The present study analyses the last decades’ data concerning the establishment of willow, poplar and hybrid aspen plantations in Sweden. The analysis includes extension planted, a geo-statistical analysis of core location patterns, and the type of land being replaced or replacing plantations, for the period 1986–2017. The results show a steady decrease of willow plantations in recent years, which can be explained by changes in the policy framework (after 1996) and the increase in cereal prices (after 2007). The decline is partially offset by the establishment of new poplar and hybrid aspen plantations. New plantations tend to spread in southern areas; willow tends to be planted on higher productivity agricultural areas, and poplar on less productive land. There is a trend towards preferring smaller plantations (<1 ha) versus large ones (>10 ha). Although many willow plantations have been established on previous cereal land (particularly on spring barley and winter wheat), this pattern changed after 2007, preferring grasses and fallow land. The latter is the most common land use replaced by poplar plantations. These shares may have important applications in economic and environmental assessments; the general spatial patterns of the main fast-growing species for biomass can provide a valid reference for the future implementation of bioenergy production systems.

The blessing of the “year without summer”: Climatic and socioeconomic impact of the Krakatoa eruption (1883) in the south‐east of the Iberian Peninsula

AbstractIn the current context of climate change–induced warming, interest in analysing the impact of volcanic eruptions on the climate has renewed. The main conclusions from related papers indicate that volcanic eruptions alter the terrestrial radiative balance and cause cooling in the years after an eruption: known as “years without summer.” These episodes of cyclical cooling have been related to negative socio‐economic impacts (such as crop reduction, famine, and social unrest). However, the effect on precipitation has been studied less. Detailed studies on the economic impact of large eruptions are scarce, especially for historical eruptions. This study analysed the effects of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption on temperature and precipitation in the south‐east of the Iberian Peninsula and related economic and social effects. It was concluded that this eruption incited a significant decrease in maximum temperatures and stability, an increase in minimum temperatures, a decrease in average temperatures, and a significant increase in rainfall. This climatic context produced a decrease in cereal prices and a reduction in climatic risks (droughts and frosts). Therefore, the effects of the eruption of Krakatoa improved socioeconomic conditions in the south‐eastern Iberian Peninsula.

Chinchilla de Montearagón y el diezmo eclesiástico de su distrito. Siglos XVII-XVIII

: In this text, the participation of the population of Chinchilla and others of its district in the administration and management of ecclesiastical tithe in the 17th and 18th centuries, a part of the agrarian production that is delivered to the Diocese of Cartagena (bishop and council cathedral, based in Murcia) and the king (royal thirds) or even the lord in the case of manors. This popular action in the ecclesiastical tithe took place on the part of diverse social groups, reason why it is illustrative of the social organization and its evolution, in which the policy of the enlightened governments of the eighteenth century influenced by the liberalization of the cereal prices (previously appraised) and the setting of new contributions, such as the pious fund and frutos civiles. In this way, the social composition of Chinchilla is made known a little more, a city to which hardly any attention has been devoted in these aspects.

Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and several studies suggest that climate change is expected to increase food insecurity and poverty in many parts of the world. In this paper, we adopt a microeconometric approach to empirically estimate the impact of climate change-induced hikes in cereal prices on household welfare in Swaziland (also Kingdom of Eswatini). We do so first by econometrically estimating expenditure and price elasticities of five food groups consumed by households in Swaziland using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), based on data from the 2009/2010 Swaziland Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Second, we use the estimated expenditure and compensated elasticities from the AIDS model, food shares from the household survey, and food price projections developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to estimate the proportionate increase in income required to maintain the level of household utility that would have prevailed absent an increase in food prices. Our results show increases in cereal prices due to climate change are expected to double extreme poverty in urban areas and increase poverty in rural areas of the country to staggering levels - between 71 and 75%, compared to 63% before the price changes. Income transfers of between 17.5 and 25.4% of pre-change expenditures are needed to avoid the welfare losses.

Global Food Commodity Prices and Domestic Food Inflation: Some Insights from Morocco

This paper examines the world commodity prices pass-through to food inflation in Morocco, over the period 2004-2018, by using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model on monthly data. Several interesting results are found from this study. First, the impact of global food prices on domestic food inflation is shown significant, which reflects the large imported component in the domestic food consumption basket. Second, the transmission effect is found to vary across commodities. Consumer prices of cereals and oils significantly and positively respond to external price shocks, while those of dairy and beverages are weakly influenced. Third, there is evidence of asymmetries in the pass-through from world to domestic food prices, where external positive shocks generate a stronger local prices response than negative ones. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, namely the subsidies, price controls, and weak competitive market structures. Our findings suggest that food price movements should require much attention in monetary policymaking, especially that the country has taken preliminary steps towards the adoption of floating exchange rate regime.

Seasonal, annual, and spatial variation in cereal prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

Local food prices are key indicators of food security and market conditions. Yet price data are often not available, particularly for rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. We compiled data from 168 markets to study spatial and temporal price variation. We found that prices slightly increase when the preceding growing season was dry. Across the continent, there is pronounced seasonal variation, with lowest prices 2–3 months after harvest and highest prices just before harvest. A predictive model explained 42% of the spatial variation in prices. Our results show that spatial and temporal price variation can be generalized and that prices can be estimated for unsampled locations or months. Such estimates may be used to improve the targeting of food security interventions and strengthen empirical policy-oriented research.

Structure of Wheat and Corn Farming: A Survey on Amik Plain Farmers

This study was conducted to identify the current problems of cereal crops like wheat and corn producers and to suggest solutions for overcoming those problems in Amik Plain (Antakya, Kirikhan, Kumlu, Reyhanli districts) in Hatay province of Turkey. In this study, the primary data was obtained by face-to-face survey from 100 cereal producers in Amik plain. All variables are given as frequency and percentage distribution, and numerical variables as mean. The survey assessed the level of education of grain producers, the number of individuals in the farm, record keeping, social security, crops (wheat and corn) growing area, yield, sowing and harvest date ranges, property and leasehold land use, cultural practices and grain production. The data were analysed using simple statistical analysis methods (frequency, averages, percentage distribution). The results indicated that about 50% of the cereal producers had higher educational degree. It was determined that producers had an average of 12.3 ha of wheat and 15 ha of corn cultivated area. Moreover, cereal production is well known as one of the cultural practices in the study area. The main problem of grain producers is that the low cereal prices. In addition, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) does not purchase the production at the time of harvesting. Moreover, high production costs and corn irrigation are considered other problems that cereal producers are facing.

New Evidence Using a Dynamic Panel Data Approach: Cereal Supply Response in Smallholder Agriculture in Ethiopia

Increasing agricultural production is essential to improving food availability and farm household incomes in developing economies. This study investigated the dynamic supply responses of major cereal crops to price and nonprice factors in Ethiopia using the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) panel dataset from 1994 to 2009. According to the Nerlovian expectation and adjustment approach in conjunction with the system GMM (generalized method of moments) estimator, both the planted areas and produced yields of major crops (teff, wheat, and barley) are influenced by price and nonprice factors in Ethiopia. The supply of major cereal crops is affected positively by their own prices and negatively by the prices of substitute crops. Nonprice factors such as education, farm size, fertilizer, land quality, and precipitation also affect supply of major cereals. Both the short-term and long-term acreage and yield response elasticities of teff and barley are positive. Moreover, the adjustment coefficients are positive for teff, barley, and wheat. The results suggest that Ethiopian farmers are capable of analyzing market signals and responding positively to price increases of staple crops. The findings also imply that the Ethiopian agricultural sector has been responsive to the cereal price increases observed since 2006. The remarkable growth of Ethiopian agriculture over recent decades is partly explained by the increase in agricultural prices. This study recommends that a fine-tuned balance between government interventions and market solutions is important, in addition to improving farmers’ agronomic practices, for increasing agricultural production.

The impact of COVID-19 related 'stay-at-home' restrictions on food prices in Europe: findings from a preliminary analysis.

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 related ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions on food prices in 31 European countries. I combine the European Union’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) with the Stay-at-Home Restriction Index (SHRI) from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for January–May 2020. The results of a series of difference-in-difference regression models reveal that the severity of stay-at-home restrictions increased overall food prices by 1% in March 2020, compared to January and February 2020. The price level for food continued to rise in the high stay-at-home restriction countries relative to thier counterpart in April but stabilised in May. The food categories that witnessed the most significant surges in prices were meat, fish & seafood, and vegetables. The prices of bread & cereals, fruits, milk, cheese & eggs and oils & fats were not significantly affected. The correlations between food prices and stay-at-home restrictions were significant after controlling for cross-country variations in COVID-19 affectedness and other mitigation and adaptation measures, such as international travel controls, road closures and the size of the economic stimulus packages. This study presents the first empirical evidence of food price inflation as an unintended consequence of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures in one of the most severely hit continents of the world.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12571-020-01082-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Factor Analysis of Prices and Agricultural Production in the European Union

Abstract Common agricultural policy (CAP) is a factor of development and cohesion of the European Union (EU) agriculture. The fundamentals of CAP were defined in the 1950s, when the Union was formed. Since then, CAP has been reforming and adapting to new circumstances. Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union defines the goals of CAP: stable (acceptable) prices of agricultural products, growth, productivity and technological progress in agriculture, growth in farmers’ income and supplying the common market. Factor analysis of the prices and production goals of CAP directly or indirectly involves the following variables: prices of agricultural and industrial products, indices of the prices of cereals, meat and milk, indices of the prices of agricultural products in France and Great Britain, agricultural GDP and EU GDP. The analysis results come down to 2 factors. The first – “internal factor” is a set of indicators homogenous in terms of greater impact of CAP on their trends (the prices of agricultural products in France, income from agriculture, the prices of agricultural products in EU and Great Britain and the milk price index). The second - “external factor” is made of general and global indicators (cereals prices, EU GDP and prices in industry). Factor analysis has confirmed high correlation of goals: production growth, productivity and technological progress in agriculture as well as “reasonable” prices in agriculture. The analysis shows high correlation between agricultural and industrial products, indices of the prices of cereals, meat and milk, indices of the prices of agricultural products in France and Great Britain, agriculture GDP and EU GDP (classified into internal and external factors). In general, the results of the factor analysis justify the existence of CAP, while the EU budget support brings wider social benefits.

Investigation of cereal price transmission in Fars province

How to transfer price of agricultural products and its changes are considered as one of the most important indices of market performance and the main means of resource allocation in the economy. Assessing how price changes are transferred among different market levels is very important for the factors involved in production management and marketing and policymakers, and this information can be used in management decisions. Whenever occurs a disruption in the price transfer mechanism, the market system will not function properly and asymmetric price transfer can disrupt price signals and force the government to intervene to redistribute resources. Materials and methods In this research, the transfer of prices between wholesale and retail levels of beans in Fars province during the period 1999:03 to 2017:02 was studied. Due to the nature of the data studied and the occurrence of structural break in the variables, were used the HEGY unit root test and unit root test with structural break. Also, due to the spillover effects in the market of alternative products, the retail price of alternative products was also included in the models. To investigate price transmission patterns, the error correction approach with structural failure was used. Results and Discussion The results showed that in the short term for tiny pea and large lentil the price transmission is asymmetric and for large pea and tiny lentil is symmetric. In the long term, price transmission is asymmetric for all products, which seems to be due to the continuation of negative effects of economic sanctions and high

Common Factors and the Dynamics of Cereal Prices. A Forecasting Perspective

This article investigates what determines the price dynamics of the main cereals: barley, maize, rice and wheat. Using an extensive dataset of monthly time series covering the years 1980 - 2019, we extract four different common factors explaining the dynamics of commodity prices, exchange rates, financial and macroeconomic indicators. Next, we examine whether these factors are useful in explaining the movements of cereal prices. We show that models incorporating all four factors outperform significantly the naive random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting competition, especially for longer horizons. However, they have only marginally better performance than a simpler model based on the commodity factor alone.

Tendencje w kształtowaniu się cen zbóż w Polsce i ich znaczenie dla gospodarstw rolnych

Tendencje w kształtowaniu się cen zbóż w Polsce i ich znaczenie dla gospodarstw rolnych