Current state and trends in the global grain market

Abstract

Food production and agriculture play a key role in providing the world’s population with food. A special place in the world food market is given to the grain complex, which occupies an important position in the system of world agri-food markets and is a strategic branch of the national economy of each individual country. This article assesses the current state and conjuncture of the world grain market based on the analysis of statistical data on the production, consumption, trade and prices of cereals, as well as on the basis of studying reviews and reports of leading analytical agencies, in particular FAO reports. In view of the relevance of recent events related to the experienced global economic shock, an assessment of the impact of the global pandemic on the world grain market is given. The forecasts of further growth of the world grain market and the subsequent position of its leading participants are presented. It is concluded that the markets for major cereals are well secured, the outlook for global production and consumption is generally positive, and that cereal trade is expected to grow, but at a slower pace. Large exporters and importers of cereals will maintain their leading positions with some possible changes in their participation shares. The main trends in the development of the world market for cereals are listed and disclosed, associated mainly with population growth, increased yields, changes in consumption patterns, expansion of the livestock sector, technological progress, the functioning of global value chains and the actions of large participants in relation to state and tariff regulation of the grain complex.