Emergent Properties of Land Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics of Scottish Farming Systems from 1867 to 2020

Richard Aspinall,Michele Staiano,Diane Pearson

doi:10.3390/land10111172

Richard Aspinall, Michele Staiano + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/land10111172

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Abstract

Dynamics of arable and pastoral farming systems in Scotland over the period 1867–2020 are documented using time series analysis methods, including for nonlinear dynamical systems. Results show arable and pastoral farming, at a national scale, are dynamic over a range of timescales, with medium- and short-term dynamics associated with endogenous system forces and exogenous factors, respectively. Medium-term dynamics provide evidence of endogenous systems-level feedbacks between farming sectors responding to change in world and national cereal prices as an economic driver, and act to dampen impacts of exogenous shocks and events (weather, disease). Regime shifts are identified in national cereal prices. Results show change and dynamics as emergent properties of system interactions. Changes in dynamics and strength of endogenous dampening over the duration of the study are associated with dynamical changes from major governmental policy decisions that altered the boundary conditions for interdependencies of arable and pastoral farming.

Highlights

Much research in land systems science has focused on process–response relationships of changes in land use and land cover with a variety of drivers of change as causal factors [1,2,3,4]
Domestic cereal prices are linked to changes in world prices (Figure 2d), and to national and international policies and events (Figure 1b), but behind the influences of these exogenous factors, there is evidence from the period from 1867 to 1972 for the dampening influence of endogenous dynamics associated with the coupling of components of Scottish farming systems
Time series analysis, including methods from analysis of non-linear dynamical systems, are used to separate long, medium- and short-term dynamics encapsulated within a historical record of land system states for farming in Scotland over the period from 1867 to 2020

Summary

Introduction

Much research in land systems science has focused on process–response (cause and effect) relationships of changes in land use and land cover with a variety of drivers of change as causal factors [1,2,3,4]. Many of these studies have focused on dynamics defined by change resulting from either land conversion (changes in type of cover and/or use) or land modification (land use intensification, land degradation, land abandonment) using snapshots in time and simple differencing between dates to elucidate patterns in observed changes. As Turner and colleagues note, despite wide recognition of land as an exemplar of coupled human-environment systems [10], these explanations typically invoke one of the human or environment subsystem explanations in more detail, and few are rooted in the interactions of human and environment systems [1]

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