Cereal Prices Research Articles

Le mouvement des prix des céréales en Russie du XVIIIesiècle au début du XXesiècle

Le prix des céréales avait une importance exceptionnelle dans l'histoire de la Russie, pays essentiellement agraire où, au début du XXesiècle, environ 85% de l'ensemble de la population vivait encore à la campagne. La prospérité de millions de gens et la politique économique du gouvernement dépendaient souvent des fluctuations du prix des grains. C'est pourquoi la Russie a été précisément le premier pays d'Europe où fut organisée la collecte mensuelle d'informations sur ces prix à l'échelle nationale dès le règne de Pierre Ier2.

REDUCING THE NITROGEN INPUT ON ARABLE FARMS

Nitrogen response curves derived from experimental data are used with a profit maximising condition to obtain optimum N rates, yields and gross margin losses for a range of nitrogen and cereal prices. These results are used with a linear programming model of an arable farm to estimate changes in the optimal cropping allocation and hence the farm scale effects of relative price changes. Total nitrogen applied is found to have a limited response: a doubling of the N price reduces the total used by between 24% and 10% depending on the availability of low‐N break‐crops. Cereal price changes reduce profitability severely before having any significant effect on N use.

The Politics of Subsistence: The Liberalization of Grain Commerce in Austrian Lombardy under Enlightened Despotism

Historians of early modern Europe agree that control of food provision and distribution was one of the chief concerns of governments in the preindustrial era. Grain policy was particularly important, as bread constituted the food staple for the bulk of the population. The fear of grain scarcity and the potential threat to political stability stimulated European authorities to subject the trade in grain and bread production to strict regulations aimed at securing cheap bread for the people, primarily the urban dwellers. The main regulations included restrictions on grain export and internal circulation, prohibition of wholesale buying, obligatory sale at designated markets, and close control of prices. Around the middle of the eighteenth century the grain supply system faced a serious crisis in many European countries. A steady rise in cereal prices, caused primarily by an increase in population,l called the effectiveness of the system into question. At the same time economists, most notably the Physiocrats, and reforming ministers began to advocate lifting the old restrictions, and an intense struggle developed between proponents of free grain trade, who favored the interests of grain producers, and opponents of grain liberalization, who favored those of consumers. Several European governments, including those of France,2 Spain, and Tuscany,3 began abolishing many of the old restrictions on the grain trade in the 1760s and 1770s. The enlightened Habsburg despots Maria Theresa and Joseph II also launched a program of reform to deregulate the grain trade in various parts of their empire. In Austrian Lombardy the deregulation of trade in grain should be understood both as an important illustration of the efforts of the Austrian

SOURCES OF INCREASED VARIABILITY IN WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION SINCE THE 1960s

Recent growth in world cereal production has been accompanied by a more than proportional increase in the standard deviation of production. This study applies variance decomposition procedures to data on crop production by major geographical regions of the world to analyse the sources of this increased instability. It is found that the increase in aggregate production variability is predominantly due to increased yield variability and to a simultaneous loss in offsetting patterns of variation in yields between crops and regions. These changes are probably associated with the sharp increase in the variability of world cereal and oil prices since the early 1970s and with the more widespread adoption of improved seed/fertiliser intensive technologies.

The effect of the quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition

The effect of the milk quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition, in the Ee, is evaluated by simulation within the context of a quarterly econometric model for the European beef market. The farmers are assumed to be price-takers maximising returns from their cattle herd by deciding on its composition, by sex, and on its rate of growth through the number of total calves born. The price-taking assumption allows us to treat the milk quota policy as equivalent to general milk price reduction. Four scenarios are entertained for our simulations; in the first a 10% permanent fall in the (real) price of milk is stipulated; the second scenario assumes that the price of milk falls initially by 10%, followed by five annual 1% reductions. The third scenario assumes that the fall in the price of milk (10%) is only temporary lasting for two years, and finally the fourth simulation is based on the assumption of a 10% permanent reduction in the ‘real’ price of milk, accompanied by a 10% permanent increase of the ‘real’ price of cereals. In all cases, the cow herd declines whilst the stock of male animals expands.

Market Response to and Consumer Attitudes Toward Unit Pricing of Eggs ,

Unit pricing did not increase egg sales in a 36 week controlled experiment involving 13 test and 15 control stores in Topeka, Kansas during 1977. Test stores priced eggs both by the dozen and by the pound while control stores priced eggs only by the dozen during a 25-week test period. Price per dozen was converted to price per pound based on minimum weight per dozen for each egg size.Average weekly egg sales per store were shown as two ratios: 1) dozen eggs per $1,000 of store sales, and 2) dozen eggs per 100 customers. Trends and percentage changes in these sales ratios for test and control stores from an 11 week pretest period through a 25 week test period measured the effect of unit pricing on egg sales.Contrary to expectations, dozen eggs sold per $1,000 of store sales were 2.7% lower in test stores and 2.8% lower in control stores in the test period than in the pretest period. Dozen eggs sold per 100 customers declined 3.2% in test stores in the test period compared with the pretest period but increased .8% in control stores. These experimental results occurred when sizes of eggs offered for sale, average weekly retail egg prices, and frequency of “sales” on eggs were highly comparable for test and control stores.Consumer attitudes were obtained by in-store personal interviews with 1,040 egg purchasers. Major concerns were “the price of eggs” (mentioned by 76%), “shell cleanliness and soundness” (60%), and “sizes of eggs available” (52%). When asked which was the most important single factor, they indicated “price” (48%). However, only 10% compared the “unit price” (or price per pound) of eggs with unit prices of various red meats, fish, cheese, and cereals. Those who made such comparisons found eggs to be “relatively low priced”. Some (34%) compared prices of different egg sizes but only 14% said they purchased the least expensive egg size. Most consumers (93%) indicated that unit pricing had “little or no effect” on increasing their egg purchases. Some (32%) said “unit price” information on egg price labels was useful or helpful, a majority (57%) said it was not useful, while 11% were undecided. In response to price specials on eggs, 41% purchased “more than the usual number” (of dozen eggs); most (59%) purchased “the usual number”. When asked, “Why do you use eggs?” only 11% mentioned the “good value” or relatively low unit price of eggs.

Perspectives of animal nutrition with efficient use of by-products and wastes

The preparation of the introductory paper to this Conference has presented two particular problems. First, as always, there was the risk that it would contain too many references to aspects which would be dealt with in greater detail — and possibly contradicted subsequently. Secondly, the title of the Conference, ‘By-Products and Wastes in Animal Feeding’, seemed to be at variance with a definition of waste, ‘a resource arising (in agriculture) where the cost and complexity of using that resource is greater than the returns from using it’, which I had used at a similar Conference a year ago (Raymond, 1977) and which might imply that ‘waste’, once utilized, is no longer ‘waste’. But this is really semantics; the aim of this Conference is to bring together the latest information on whether resources which have conventionally been considered ‘wastes’ can effectively and economically be utilized in new animal feeding systems. The concept of economic use is vital. I strongly believe that we must reject the idea that there is some sort of moral imperative to use wastes; if this is not economic then their use must involve the misuse of some other resource within the total production system.The situation is of course dynamic; effective research and development (R and D) can transform yesterday's waste resource into a new productive asset. Further, the economic environment is not static; for example, changes in relative costs of feedstuffs mean that farmers will this winter feed large quantities of straw which in 1972 they would have burnt in the field, while high cereal prices mean that more non-tariff components, including by-products, are now being included in least-cost livestock rations. Thus it is worth examining some of the factors that have led to the current interest in the role of by-products and waste materials in animal feeding setting aside any marginal objection to this use of ‘waste’.

Pesticides in cereal production

AbstractA cereal grower will normally attempt to maximise his returns from resources used without prejudicing the future. Historically, for the control of weeds, pests and diseases growers have preferred husbandry methods and the use of ‘resistant’ varieties. Economic pressures, technical developments and subsequent changes in farming systems demand more reliance on pesticides. The adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy and the relatively higher cereal prices improve the cost: benefit ratio from their more extensive use. Additionally, quality standards arising directly or indirectly from EEC legislation, where these can be influenced by pesticide application, will further encourage their routine application. In the longer term, increased fixed costs will encourage the grower to insure against crop losses by the use of prophylactic pesticide applications where appropriate. New systems of production to reduce fixed costs will be adopted, probably involving further use of pesticides. Growers will always wish to contain variable costs as far as is possible: as better forecasting of disease and pest epidemics is developed prophylactic treatments will be discarded. Examples of the economic benefits or penalties of adopting alternatives to pesticides are given.

Crédit à la consommation et conjoncture économique : L'Isle-en-Venaisin (1460-1560)

Aborder le problème de la conjoncture économique méridionale entre 1460 et 1560, c'est tenter de caractériser le premier XVIe siècle, cerner les interrogations face à la hausse des prix, et aussi, s'agissant des terres à l'est du Rhône, répondre au Languedoc de Le Roy Ladurie, précéder la Basse-Provence de Baehrel.Pourquoi choisir comme dates extrêmes 1460 et 1560 ? La date de 1560 ne soulève guère de difficultés: elle marque le début, en pays Venaissin, de troubles sérieux dus aux guerres de Religion; nous entrons dès lors dans des champs peu favorables à la compréhension du jeu des fluctuations économiques.

World food conference: A perspective

The World Food Conference was one of a series of major UN gatherings that have recently taken place or are being planned in the near future to discuss major problems confronting the entire mankind. The world food situation deteriorated significantly in 1972, when the total food production declined from the preceding year for the first time in 20 years. The future food scenario is not optimistic because the demand for food in developing countries is expected to increase at about 3.6% per year during 1972 to 1985, compared with the average annual increase of 2.6% during the preceding 12 years. If these basic rates are not maintained, developing market economy countries will have to import 85 × 10 6 tons of food annually by 1985 in normal years, and over 100 × 10 6 in years of bad harvests. Thus, their food import bill, at the average 1973–1974 cereal price of $200 per ton, could become $17 × 10 9 per annum by 1985 in normal years. The Conference hoped to secure pledges of immediate aid to alleviate the present crisis and sought to establish methods to help poor countries finance food purchases, to induce rich countries to provide capital and technical aid to help developing countries improve domestic production, and to create an international grain reserve system to prevent local famines. In general, there was agreement that in the short run food exporting countries must maximize production efforts, but the only solution in the long run lay in increasing production in developing countries where food is needed. Priority would have to be given to food and agriculture in development plans and huge increases in agricultural investment are necessary. The major achievement of the Conference was the creation of a World Food Council which is a kind of senior ministerial committee with 36 members and its own small secretariat in Rome, associated with FAO but independent of it. An International Fund for Agricultural Development was approved but the major question of how it would be funded was left undecided. It also approved an International Undertaking on World Food Security, which is a long-term plan to have reserve stocks to avert the kind of dangerous fluctuations and food shortages that have been occurring. Among other approved resolutions were a programme to supply pesticides to developing countries, more scientific water management, increased support for the International Fertilizer Supply Scheme established in July 1974, expansion of agricultural research and training, a nutrition aid programme, seed industry development, better soil protection and conservation techniques, recognition of women's role in agriculture and food and the need for better balance between population and food supply. The paper is a detailed analysis of the Conference including its background and achievements.

British cereals and the European Common Market

In recent years British cereal growers have managed to hold down costs by improved labour organization and intensified mechanization but this trend cannot continue indefinitely. Exceptional conditions in 1972/73 have temporarily closed the gap between cereal prices in UK and the Six, and it seems likely that, with yields and prices moving towards expected levels at the end of the transition period, margins will rise sufficiently to maintain and possibly improve living standards.

Studies on Cereal-Free Rations Based on Rice Polishings and Groundnut Cake for Growing Chicks: 3. Effect of Cheap Protein Supplements

INTRODUCTIONTHE increasing prices of cereals and the non-availability of maize, a conventional poultry feed, in the most parts of the country, have prompted us to formulate a ration completely devoid of cereals. Chaturvedi and Mukherjee (1967) have conducted some experiments on rations, based on rice polishings, groundnut cake and wheat bran, for starting chicks, with encouraging results. The object of this experiment was to find out the optimum level of blood meal, and of yeast sludge, which can be safely used in the starter ration. At present blood from slaughter houses is not being utilized properly in our country.Blood meal has been reported to be a poor source of protein for poultry rations (Mussehl and Ackerson, 1931; Titus et al., 1936). Blood meal is found to be a satisfactory source of lysine in all-vegetable protein rations for starting chicks. The meal is most effective when fed at 2…

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Reply

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Reply

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Comment*

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India: Comment*

A note on the substitution of sorghum for barley in diets for fattening pigs

Changes in prices of the basic cereals make it necessary to have a reliable assessment of their relative nutritive values if maximum economic efficiency of pig production is to be attained. As the primary role of cereals in pig feeds is as a source of energy, it is on this basis that comparison should be made but with due allowance for any major differences in nutrient content which may necessitate differential supplementation.Sorghum, or milo, is a cereal imported into the United Kingdom which, at times, may be competitive with other cereals for price per ton but about whose nutritive value there is some confusion. Sorghum has not often been compared with barley as a cereal for pigs, but its value relative to that of maize seems to vary widely, between 80 and 100% (Braude, Mitchell and Robinson, 1950; Hillier, MacVicar and Pond, 1954; Aubel, 1956; Loeffel, 1957; Peo and Hudman, 1958; Schruben, 1959; Vanschoubroek, Spaendonk and Nauwynck, 1964). Estimates of relative digestible energy values (DE) are equally variable; the DE value of sorghum has been assessed as 94·5% (Diggs, Becker, Terrill and Jensen, 1959) and 96·2% (Robinson and Lewis, 1962) that of maize, whereas the TDN value given by Evans (1960) is greater than that of maize. Robinson and Lewis (1962) consider the DE value of sorghum to be 140% ofthat of barley, but Evans (1960) quotes a TDN value for sorghum which is 111% of that of barley. While variation in the type of sorghum used may account for some of this discrepancy, Dammers and Djikstra (1961) found little difference between the varieties milocorn, kaffir corn, granifero and white dari, and only guinea corn differed in having a lower energy value.

The Impact of Public Law 480 Imports on Prices and Domestic Supply of Cereals in India

This article quantifies the impact of imports of cereals under Public Law 480 on the prices and domestic supply of cereals in India. An econometric model encompassing six simultaneous equations is set up. An analytical framework for measuring the impact of P.L. 480 imports on prices and domestic supply is constructed. The statistical analysis supports the belief that the importation of cereals under P.L. 480 leads to lower prices and a decline in domestic supply but that the decrease in domestic supply is less than the quantity imported. Thus, there is a net addition to the quantity available for consumption, which is a significant contribution in a shortage economy. INDIA has figured prominently in the operations of U.S. Public Law 480. Of the total market value of $9,401 million programmed under Title I for all countries during the period July 1, 1955, to December 31, 1964, $2,486 million (26 percent) was for India. Of all the cereals available for human consumption in India during the period 1957-1963, some 5 percent were from imports under P.L. 480 Title I. In an economy which is unable to meet its food needs from domestic production, this is a significant contribution. This article measures the impact of the imports of P.L. 480 cereals on the prices and the domestic supply of cereals in India. Background No attempt so far has been made to study the impact of P.L. 480 imports on Indian agriculture in a systematic and analytical way. In 1960, T. W. Schultz [9] put forth an admittedly speculative argument that the effects of P.L. 480 imports upon agriculture of the recipient country were likely to be adverse through a fall in the prices of agricultural products. The cultivators in India would be faced with a decline in the prices of farm products, and the incentive to maintain or expand agricultural production would be thwarted. Professor Schultz has recently repeated the same argu

Relative Movements of Agricultural Wage-Rates and Cereal Prices:Some Indian Evidence

The object of this note is to examine with the help of available data the relative trend in agricultural wages and the prices of staple cereals over years, in certain parts of India.

Relationship between Criminality and Economic Conditions

For more than a century students of social conditions in Europe and America have investigated the relationship between criminality and economic fluctuations. Most of them have concluded that the volume of crime, or of certain types of crime, is influenced by economic conditions in general or by certain aspects of economic conditions. Summaries of these studies by Bonger,2 Sellin,3 and Thomas4 present an imposing array of supporting evidence. This thesis could be definitely established or definitely rejected if the total amount of crime, or the total amount of certain types of crime, could be compared with the vibrations or cycles in actual economic conditions or in certain aspects of economic conditions, but neither criminality nor economic phenomena are measurable directly. The early European studies described by Bonger rely on the prices of rye, wheat, or other cereals as indexes of economic conditions, while later studies use commodity price indexes, pauperism, wages, real wages, employment, cotton prices, pig-iron production, railroad freight ton mileage, and combinations of several items. The index of criminality may be derived from crimes known to the police, arrests, convictions, commitments or other available recorded data. The index of general criminality thus derived may be further divided into crimes against property, crimes against person, crimes against public order, or other subdivisions. One or more crime indexes is then correlated with one or more economic indexes. Are the economic fluctuations described in the index a sensitive

The Decline of Prices of Cereals

The National Agricultural Conference, held in Washington the last week in January, was so engrossed with the program of remedies that it was not able to give exhaustive attention to diagnosis. A great deal of ground had been covered in the congressional hearings before the Joint Commission of Agricultural Inquiry. Certain ills of the farmer date from the last century; others developed during the war; some were the consequence of the boom; and several were the back-wash of the down-wave of the business cycle. It was difficult to segregate these disabilities. In any event, such segregation would have entailed exhaustive quantitative researches, for which the Conference had not time. It seemed necessary for the Conference to adopt a program of remedies that resembled a prescription. As in the case of most shotgun prescriptions designed to relieve a complex of symptoms, some of the remedies seem incompatible. Prices of cereals were rising at the time of the meeting of the Conference. Since then prices have again declined, though not to the low level of 1921. The basic fact of the economics of the world during 1920 and 1921, from the standpoint of price, was that in each country the gold prices of raw materials declined precipitously. Price decline began in the fall of 1919 in some countries with some commodities; and the movement lasted in some coun-

The Price of Cereals in 1550

The Price of Cereals in 1550