Methane hydrate formation is analytically studied in the presence of the water memory effect using the classical nucleation theory. The memory effect is introduced as a change in nucleation site from a three-dimensional heterogenous nucleation on a solid surface with cap-shaped hydrate clusters (3D-HEN) to a two-dimensional nucleation on the solid hydrate residue surface with monolayer disk-shaped hydrate clusters (2D-NOH). The analysis on the stationary nucleation of methane hydrate under isobaric conditions shows that the memory effect caused an average decrease of 4.4 K in metastable zone width, or subcooling. This decrease can be erased at higher dissociation temperatures (ΔT > 17.2 K) due to a decrease in the concentration of 2D-NOH nucleation sites. Moreover, the probability of hydrate formation is estimated for the purpose of quantifying risk associated with methane hydrate formation in the presence of the memory effect.
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