Potential Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Climate variability effects on eutrophication of groundwater, lakes, rivers, and coastal waters in the Netherlands

Many aquatic ecosystems in densely populated delta areas worldwide are under stress from overexploitation and pollution. Global population growth will lead to further increasing pressures in the coming decades, while climate change may amplify the consequences for chemical and ecological water quality. In this study, we explored the effects of climatic variability on eutrophication of groundwater, streams, rivers, lakes, estuaries, and marine waters in the Netherlands. We exploited the relatively dense monitoring information from the Dutch part of the Rhine-Meuse delta to evaluate the water quality response on climatic variability, in combination with anthropogenic pressures.Our results show that water quality of all water systems in the Netherlands is affected by climate variability in several ways: 1) through the process of global climate change (mainly temperature and sea level rise), 2) through changes Atlantic ocean circulation patterns (more southwestern winds), 3) through changes in continental precipitation and river discharge fluctuations, and 4) through local climatic fluctuations. The impact of climate variability propagates through the hydrological system ‘from catchment to coast’. The fluctuations in water quality induced by climatic variability shown in this study give a preview for the potential effects of climate change.

Effects of Climate Change on the Moisture Performance of Tallwood Building Envelope

The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the moisture performance and durability of massive timber walls on the basis of results derived from hygrothermal simulations. One-dimensional simulations were run using DELPHIN 5.9.4 for 31 consecutive years of the 15 realizations of the modeled historical (1986–2016) and future (2062–2092) climates of five cities located across Canada. For all cities, water penetration in the wall assembly was assumed to be 1% wind-driven rain, and the air changes per hour in the drainage cavity was assumed to be 10. The mold growth index on the outer layer of the cross-laminated timber panel was used to compare the moisture performance for the historical and future periods. The simulation results showed that the risk of mold growth would increase in all the cities considered. However, the relative change varied from city to city. In the cities of Ottawa, Calgary and Winnipeg, the relative change in the mold growth index was higher than in the cities of Vancouver and St. John’s. For Vancouver and St. John’s, and under the assumptions used for these simulations, the risk was already higher under the historical period. This means that the mass timber walls in these two cities could not withstand a water penetration rate of 1% wind-driven rain, as used in the simulations, with a drainage cavity of 19 mm and an air changes per hour value of 10. Additional wall designs will be explored in respect to the moisture performance, and the results of these studies will be reported in a future publication.

Climate Change and Mental Health.

This essay reviews evidence for the current and potential effects of climate change on mental health. A growing body of research demonstrates not only that the extreme weather events associated with a changing climate can impair mental health, in particular leading to increases in depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, but also that more gradual changes in climatic conditions, such as rising temperatures and reduced air quality, are also harmful to mental health. In addition, there is increasing evidence that a significant proportion of people might be experiencing a harmful level of anxiety associated with their perception of climate change. Mental health impacts of climate change have the potential to affect a significant proportion of the population. More research is needed to document the extent of these impacts as well as the best options for mitigating and treating them.

Developing a Spatial Tool for Assessing Coastal Community and Identifying Infrastructure at Risk

A recent trend of sea level shows constant rising. Sea level rise has caused a significant risk to seaside areas. This study examines the potential effect of climate change and rising sea levels on coastal regions and evaluates the susceptibility of coastal areas in Inverloch, Melbourne Australia. A model of Hypothetically Flooded Zones, based on LiDAR data was built, processed and manipulated in ArcGIS. Through applying this model, the effect of rising sea level on the infrastructures such as buildings, dwellings, roads, land use and the population was assessed. Elevation data sets of varying resolution and accuracy have been processed to show the improved quality of LiDAR data contributes to a more precise delineation of flood-prone coastal lands. After the susceptible areas to sea level rise were delineated, the worst-case scenario was calculated (based on the increase in sea level projected for 2100) and it would impacts about 0.86% of roads, 221 of different building infrastructures. This method can be used in other areas to protect the coasts due to rapid changes caused by climate change.

A GIS-based screening method to identify climate change-related threats on road networks: A case study from Sweden

Extreme weather-related events are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity if current emission rates continue. Particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is the transportation sector, which fully relies on the uninterrupted accessibility of the road network. With the Swedish Government adopting a National Adaptation Strategy in 2018, creating a coordinated cross-disciplinary strategy underpinned by international frameworks, new ambition levels regarding climate change adaptation efforts have been established. Identifying particularly vulnerable parts of the road network is an essential step for National Road Authorities (NRAs) in early planning stages to prioritize adaptation efforts around high-risk areas to safeguard the road network. By utilizing both publicly and commercially available climate-related data, as well as applying and assessing new terrain analysis techniques, a large-scale vulnerability assessment is carried out for Halland County in southwestern Sweden by assessing three climate-adjusted extreme weather events (a 100-year pluvial flood event, a 100-year fluvial flood event, and an extreme coastal storm surge event) projected to exacerbate in the region. The study demonstrates how a GIS-based screening method, specifically adapted for NRAs or similar stakeholders, may provide quick overviews of potentially at-risk areas along road networks through a simple vulnerability index assigned to individual road segments. Further studies are recommended to compare modeled results to recorded flood events if available and incorporate updated climate change trajectories from upcoming IPCC reports.

Benthic diatoms in relation to environmental factors in an allochthonous river from Patagonia, Argentina

Natural and human pressures increasingly threatening the biodiversity and water resources of dryland rivers. Fluvial environments of Patagonia harbour high diatom diversity, but their management value is overlooked. The aim of this study is to explore the diatom distribution in surface sediments of the Chubut River and evaluate their relationship with environmental variables. In total, 243 diatom taxa were identified in 16 littoral zone sites. The physical and chemical variables independently explained the variance in diatom data, whereas sediment texture had a low influence. Conductivity, major ions (HCO3–, Cl–, SO42–, Na+, K+, Ca2+ and Mg2+) and pH were the main environmental drivers explaining the diatom composition. As the highlighted variables increased near the mouth, so did the relative abundances of marine–brackish taxa such as Amphora copulatoides, Sarcophagodes alfred-wegeneri, Nitzschia fonticola and Tryblionella apiculata. Meanwhile, the presence of high pollution-tolerant diatoms can be put forward to explain the river health deterioration towards downstream areas. The marine–brackish taxa found at freshwater sites reflect a weak tidal influence in the estuary compared with other coastal systems of Patagonia. This study provides valuable information to test the hypothesis on the ecological status of aquatic resources and the potential effects of climatic and hydrological changes in the area.

Potential Himalayan community turnover through the Late Pleistocene

Prevailing models for the high biodiversity in tropical mountains assume that organisms can survive through past climate change by performing short elevational movements to track suitable habitats. However, dramatic Pleistocene climatic oscillations could also lead to species turnover but have widely been ignored. Here, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) of 288 passerine species in the Himalayas to test the effect of climate change during the Last Interglacial Period (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present day. The ENM analyses hindcasted species persistence through climate change from the LGM to the present day but likely showed a high degree of species turnover (e.g. 32.6–46.2%) from the LIG to the LGM. Further elevational dynamic reconstructions demonstrated that species might survive these two periods of climate change by upward and downward shifts, respectively. Statistical analyses of climatic variables showed increased climatic variability in the Himalayas during the LIG, which might have caused community turnover. The severe evolutionary consequence of the LIG climate in the Himalayas contrasts with the paradigm of the climatic optimum in Europe and North America and suggests potential geography-dependent effects of past climate change. More importantly, our results demonstrate that dramatic historical climate change might overwhelm the buffering effect of elevational heterogeneity, which should be considered when investigating the origin of tropical montane biodiversity.

Assessing climate change effects on gladiola in Southern Brazil

Gladiola ( Gladiolus × grandiflorus Hort.) is an important cut flower for small farmers in Brazil. While the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which causes interannual variability to air temperature in Southern Brazil, can shift the optimum planting window of gladiola, an increase in temperature due to climate change can accelerate gladiola flowering and cause injuries by heat. The objective of this study was to assess the potential climate change effects on gladiola optimum planting date for specific market dates and investigate injuries occurrence on spikes in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Field experiments were conducted from 2016 to 2018 at four different locations across the Rio Grande do Sul State to evaluate the performance of the PhenoGlad model in simulating the developmental stages of gladiola. The PhenoGlad model was run on climate scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) named RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The climate change scenarios caused a delay in the optimum planting date to harvest gladiola for All Souls’ Day across the Rio Grande do Sul State. For harvesting spikes for Mother’s Day, negative anomalies (earliest planting date) occurred in the warmest regions, because the very high temperature extended the crop development. Injuries by heat on spikes reached positive anomalies in 70 % of the years in the warmest regions for scenario RCP8.5. To harvest spikes for Mother’s Day, heat injury did not exceed 20 % of the years. Mitigation strategies for farmers to deal with climate change and keep their gladiola production include adjusting the optimum planting date.

Potential distribution and effects of climate change on the risk of scorpion sting with endemic and medically important scorpion Odontobuthus doriae Thorell, 1876 (Arachnida: Scorpionidae: Buthidae) in Iran

In this research, the MaxEnt modeling approach was used to distinguish the potential niche and distribution pattern of Odontobuthus doriae, a scorpion mainly endemic to central Iran. In aggregate, 47 occurrence records and five environmental variables were applied in the modeling of current and future periods. Central Iran was confirmed as the most suitable habitat for O. doriae, which approximately corresponds to its known distribution. Among the environmental variables, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the most important driving factors. Interestingly, the current distribution of O. doriae completely corresponds to geographical limitations in the north and the west presented by the Alborz and Zagros Mountains, respectively. Future projection showed a distributional shift towards northern part of Iran. In the context of its medical importance, more studies on biology and ecology of O. doriae could help scientists to better inform, health care management activities.

Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study

The potential effect of climate change on regional suitability for cocoa cultivation is a serious economic concern for West Africa—especially for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, whose cocoa cultivation accounts for respectively ∼19% and ∼45% of world production. Here, we present a modelling and observational study of cocoa net primary productivity (NPP) in present day and future West African climates. Our analysis uses a data assimilation technique to parameterise a process-based land-surface model. The parameterisation is based on laboratory observations of cocoa, grown under both ambient and elevated CO2. Present day and end of 21st century cocoa cultivation scenarios are produced by driving the parameterised land-surface model with output from a high-resolution climate model. This represents a significant advance on previous work, because unlike the CMIP5 models, the high-resolution model used in this study accurately captures the observed precipitation seasonality in the cocoa-growing regions of West Africa—a key sensitivity for perennials like cocoa. We find that temperature is projected to increase significantly and precipitation is projected to increase slightly, although not in all parts of the region of interest. We find, furthermore, that the physiological effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentration ameliorates the impacts of high temperature and variation in precipitation thereby reducing some of the negative impacts of climate change and maintaining NPP in West Africa, for the whole 21st Century, even under a high emissions scenario. Although NPP is an indicator of general vegetation condition, it is not equivalent to yield or bean quality. The study presented here is, nevertheless, a strong basis for further field and modelling studies of cultivation under elevated CO2 conditions.

Adaptive trait syndromes along multiple economic spectra define cold and warm adapted ecotypes in a widely distributed foundation tree species

Abstract The coordination of traits from individual organs to whole plants is under strong selection because of environmental constraints on resource acquisition and use. However, the tight coordination of traits may provide underlying mechanisms of how locally adapted plant populations can become maladapted because of climate change. To better understand local adaptation in intraspecific trait coordination, we studied trait variability in the widely distributed foundation tree species, Populus fremontii using a common garden near the mid‐elevational point of this species distribution. We examined 28 traits encompassing four spectra: phenology, leaf economic spectrum (LES), whole‐tree architecture (Corner's Rule) and wood economic spectrum (WES). Based on adaptive syndrome theory, we hypothesized that trait expression would be coordinated among and within trait spectra, reflecting local adaptation to either exposure to freeze‐thaw conditions in genotypes sourced from high‐elevation populations or exposure to extreme thermal stress in genotypes sourced from low‐elevation populations. High‐elevation genotypes expressed traits within the phenology and WES that limit frost exposure and tissue damage. Specifically, genotypes sourced from high elevations had later mean budburst, earlier mean budset, higher wood densities, higher bark fractions and smaller xylem vessels than their low‐elevation counterparts. Conversely, genotypes sourced from low elevations expressed traits within the LES that prioritized hydraulic efficiency and canopy thermal regulation to cope with extreme heat exposure, including 40% smaller leaf areas, 67% higher stomatal densities and 34% higher mean theoretical maximum stomatal conductance. Low‐elevation genotypes also expressed a lower stomatal control over leaf water potentials that subsequently dropped to pressures that could induce hydraulic failure. Synthesis. Our results suggest that Populus fremontii expresses a high degree of coordination across multiple trait spectra to adapt to local climate constraints on photosynthetic gas exchange, growth and survival. These results, therefore, increase our mechanistic understanding of local adaptation and the potential effects of climate change that in turn, improves our capacity to identify genotypes that are best suited for future restoration efforts.

How will climate change impact fossorial lizard species? Two examples in the Baja California Peninsula.

Global climate change and the associated erosion of habitat suitability are pervasive threats to biodiversity. It is critical to identify specific stressors to assess a species vulnerability to extinction, especially in species with distinctive natural histories. Here, we present a combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on two endemic, fossorial lizards species (Anniella geronimensis and Bipes biporus) from Baja California, Mexico. We also include soil type in our models to refine the suitable areas using our mechanistic models. Results suggest that both species are at high risk of extinction by global climate change based on the thermal habitat suitability. The forecast for species persistence is most grave under the RCP8.5 scenario. On the one hand, suitable habitat for A. geronimensis diminishes at its southern distribution, but potential suitable expands towards the north. On the other hand, the suitable habitat for B. biporus will contract significantly with a concomitant reduction in its potential distribution. Because both species have low mobility and are restricted to low elevation, the potential for elevational and latitudinal dispersal to mitigate extinction risk along the Baja California Peninsula is unlikely. In addition each species has specialized thermal requirements (i.e., stenothermic) and soil type preferences to which they are adapted. Our ecophysiological models in combination with the type of soil are fundamental in developing conservation strategies.

Grapevine Responses to Heat Stress and Global Warming

The potential effects of the forthcoming climate change include the rising of the average annual temperature and the accumulation of extreme weather events, like frequent and severe heatwaves, a phenomenon known as global warming. Temperature is an important environmental factor affecting almost all aspects of growth and development in plants. The grapevine (Vitis spp.) is quite sensitive to extreme temperatures. Over the current century, temperatures are projected to continue rising with negative impacts on viticulture. These consequences range from short-term effects on wine quality to long-term issues such as the suitability of certain varieties and the sustainability of viticulture in traditional wine regions. Many viticultural zones, particularly in Mediterranean climate regions, may not be suitable for growing winegrapes in the near future unless we develop heat-stress-adapted genotypes or identify and exploit stress-tolerant germplasm. Grapevines, like other plants, have developed strategies to maintain homeostasis and cope with high-temperature stress. These mechanisms include physiological adaptations and activation of signaling pathways and gene regulatory networks governing heat stress response and acquisition of thermotolerance. Here, we review the major impacts of global warming on grape phenology and viticulture and focus on the physiological and molecular responses of the grapevine to heat stress.

Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling

Water resources at the basin level are affected by climate change in the form of available water scarcity and multiple droughts leading to conflicts among different water users, especially between the agricultural sector and wetland services. However, owing to the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of water management and climate change, it is needed to integrate tools to analyze impacts and adaptation. Accordingly, the current study presents an economic-hydrological-behavioral modeling to evaluate potential effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on irrigated agriculture and to manage water resources conflicts among different water users and uses in basins. This model has an iterative framework between a farm-based multi-objectives optimization model, a water evaluating and planning model (WEAP), and an agent-based model, which can represent socio-economic, hydrologic, agronomic and behavioral systems covering all dimensions and scales related to climate change. For this purpose, the economic-hydrological-behavioral modelling was applied in a case study in the Halilrud Basin in Kerman Province, Iran. Results revealed that adoption of suitable adaptive strategies and measures could mitigate the effects of climate change and provide more water to restore the Jazmourian Wetland in this basin. Additionally, the results indicated that different forms of rigidity in the individual behavior of farmers slowed down the adaptation of the agricultural sector, so that implementation of adaptive strategies led to only 14% less water consumption.

Capital Investment Company Ruled Ineligible for Charitable Tax Exemption

A nonprofit corporation was formed to increase the capital available to organizations that develop and/or operate long‐term affordable housing for the economically and physically disadvantaged, community facilities such as schools and community health centers, businesses providing access to healthy foods, sustainable energy projects, and other projects that may increase social welfare. The bulk of its work focuses on enhancing economic opportunities in low‐income and underserved communities and on improving air quality and mitigation of the potential negative effect of climate change.

Reptile species richness associated to ecological and historical variables in Iran

Spatial gradients of species richness can be shaped by the interplay between historical and ecological factors. They might interact in particularly complex ways in heterogeneous mountainous landscapes with strong climatic and geological contrasts. We mapped the distribution of 171 lizard species to investigate species richness patterns for all species (171), diurnal species (101), and nocturnal species (70) separately. We related species richness with the historical (past climate change, mountain uplifting) and ecological variables (climate, topography and vegetation). We found that assemblages in the Western Zagros Mountains, north eastern and north western parts of Central Iranian Plateau have the highest number of lizard species. Among the investigated variables, annual mean temperature explained the largest variance for all species (10%) and nocturnal species (31%). For diurnal species, temperature change velocity shows strongest explained variance in observed richness pattern (26%). Together, our results reveal that areas with annual temperature of 15–20 °C, which receive 400–600 mm precipitation and experienced moderate level of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have highest number of species. Documented patterns of our study provide a baseline for understanding the potential effect of ongoing climate change on lizard diversity in Iran.

Evaluating Land Suitability and Potential Climate Change Impacts on Alfalfa (Medicago sativa) Production in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa with 35 million tropical livestock units. The livestock system relies on natural open grazing which is affected by frequent droughts. However, little research exists that studies the suitability of the biophysical environment for fodder production and the risks due to climate change. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa production in Ethiopia and to assess the extent of irrigation requirements for alfalfa growing under the adverse climate change projections. The impact of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa was evaluated using projected changes in rainfall and temperature based on three global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC5). A multi-criteria evaluation in GIS that uses biophysical, climatic and topography factors was applied to identify the suitable land. The highly suitable area under current climate scenarios covered ~472,000 km2, while moderately suitable and marginally suitable covered ~397,000 km2 and ~16,200 km2, respectively. The projected climate alters the suitable land for fodder production across Ethiopia. Expansion of suitable land occurred in the highlands where climate scenarios predict an increase in temperature and precipitation. Dryland regions showed a rainfall deficit for the three model projections. The research provides guidelines for growing alfalfa in Ethiopia considering ecological and climatic variability.

The impact assessment of thermal pollution on subtidal sessile assemblages: a case study from Mediterranean rocky reefs

Coastal power plants generally use seawater as cooling fluid, discharging heated waters into the sea after the cooling process. The ensuing increase in seawater temperature could affect the marine biota in the nearby areas, causing alterations at different level of biological organization, from individuals to populations and assemblages. In the Mediterranean Sea, few attempts have been made to assess the effects of this point sources of thermal pollution, especially on rocky habitats. Here, we investigated the putative impact of a thermal effluent from one of the largest European coal-fired coastal power plants on sessile assemblages of subtidal rocky reefs. Sessile assemblages on rocky substrates were photographically sampled at one location near the effluent ( I ), and at two control locations ( Cs ) virtually unaffected by thermal discharge. An asymmetrical after-control impact experimental design was employed to test the hypothesis that the thermal discharge significantly modified sessile assemblages at I if compared to Cs . We detected significant differences in assemblages at I versus Cs , indicating a clear effect of the effluent on assemblage structure. Such differences were mostly due to shift in dominance among macroalgae between I and Cs , which likely depended on different tolerance limits of species to increased seawater temperature and other sources of disturbance associated to the effluent, such as increased sedimentation rates and water turbidity. Our findings stressed the need for further investigations of the impact of thermal effluents on marine communities, considering the potential synergistic effects of climate change especially in the Mediterranean Sea.

Potential Effects of Climate and Human Influence Changes on Range and Diversity of Nine Fabaceae Species and Implications for Nature’s Contribution to People in Kenya

Climate and land-use changes are the main drivers of species distribution. On the basis of current and future climate and socioeconomic scenarios, species range projections were made for nine species in the Fabaceae family. Modeled species have instrumental and relational values termed as nature’s contribution to people (NCP). For each species, five scenarios were analyzed resulting in 45 species range maps. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 1, 2, and 3) were used in the analysis. Species ranges under these scenarios were modeled using MaxEnt; a niche modeling software that relates species occurrence with environmental variables. Results were used to compute species richness and evenness based on Shannon’s diversity Index. Results revealed a mix of range expansion and contraction for the modeled species. The findings highlighted which species may remain competitive in an urbanized future and which ones are detrimentally affected by climate. Parts of the country where species abundances are likely to change due to climate and socioeconomic changes were identified. Management of species will be required in people-dominated landscapes to maintain interactions between nature and society, while avoiding natural resource degradation and loss of NCP.

How Are Banks Doing on Sustainable Finance?

In recent years, the banking sector has started to prioritize sustainable development, recognizing the growing benefits of sustainable investment. However, they e ncounter many obstacles on the road, among others, the time horizon, waiting for regulatory proposals, and a lack of understanding of the potential effects of climate change. To strengthen its sustainability policy, the ESMA decided to harmonize transparency rules that should have a significant impact on the entire banking sector.
 The purpose of the article is to organize basic definitions related to the sustainable development policy, to show the role of finance in the whole process, to present important changes in the regulation, and to approximate current changes in the field of sustainable development in the banking sector.