Potential Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Macroscale climate change predictions have little influence on landscape-scale habitat suitability

Although a few studies have addressed the combined effects of climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity at a regional scale, the extent to which climate change will impact species occurrence at the landscape scale remains unclear. We evaluated the potential effects of climate change at the landscape scale for 11 bird species endemic to the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We quantified current and future climatic suitability for each species using ecological niche models, and quantified habitat amount and structure using connectivity analyses. Climate and landscape suitability were then combined using two approaches, which differed in the spatial scale at which climate was quantified. First, we incorporated climate at patch-level into the probability of connectivity (PC) index, obtaining a Combined Landscape Suitability (CLS) index. Second, we multiplied climate at landscape-level with PC. Climatic suitability at the landscape scale was predicted to vary little (<3%) from current to future conditions and there was a high correlation between current and future CLS and PC x climate, regardless of the method used and species’ trait differences (r ≥ 0.95 for all species). Landscapes that currently have the highest suitability for birds are likely to remain highly suitable in the future, regardless of climate change. For Atlantic Forest endemic birds, our results suggest that climate change will have minor effects on landscape-level, which does not exclude potential impacts at a regional scale. This study supports the growing perception that, in tropical regions, land-use change is an urgent threat to biodiversity.

Risk assessment framework for Mediterranean airports: a focus on extreme temperatures and precipitations and sea level rise

The increase of frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change gives evidence of severe challenges faced by infrastructure systems. Among them, the aviation sector is particularly at risk from the potential consequences of climate change. Airports are classified as critical infrastructures because they provide fundamental functions to sustain societies and economic activities. More specifically, Mediterranean airports face risks associated with sea level rise, higher occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events. These aspects require the implementation of appropriate risk assessments and definition of targeted adaptation strategies, which are still limited in the Mediterranean region. The aim of the present paper is to provide theoretical frameworks in order to assess risks of climate change on Mediterranean airports, related to extreme temperature, extreme precipitation and sea level rise. Starting from a review of the literature, we first identify the sources of climate risk that may induce potential impacts on airports, here divided in air side and land side components. In order to do so, we select a series of indicators used as proxies for identifying hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The application of these theoretical frameworks allows defining the level of risk associated to each hazard, with the goal to support the identification of specific adaptation measures for the Mediterranean airports.

Diets and Stable Isotope Signatures of Native and Nonnative Leucisid Fishes Advances Our Understanding of the Yellowstone Lake Food Web

(1) Many forage fishes, such as Leucisids (minnows) have depauperate studies on diet composition or stable isotope signatures, as these fishes are often only viewed as food for higher trophic levels. The need exists to understand and document the diet and stable isotope signatures of Leucisids (redside shiner, longnose dace, lake chub) in relation to the community ecology and food-web dynamics in Yellowstone Lake, especially given an invasive piscivore introduction and potential future effects of climate change on the Yellowstone Lake ecosystem. (2) Diet data collected during summer of 2020 were analyzed by species using proportion by number, frequency of occurrence, and mean proportion by weight, and diet overlap was compared using Schoener’s index (D). Stable isotope (δ15N and δ13C) values were estimated by collecting tissue during the summer of 2020 by species, and isotopic overlap was compared using 40% Bayesian ellipses. (3) Nonnative redside shiners and lake chub had similar diets, and native longnose dace diet differed from the nonnative Leucisids. Diet overlap was also higher between the nonnative Leucisids, and insignificant when comparing native and nonnative Leucisids. No evidence existed to suggest a difference in δ15N signatures among the species. Longnose dace had a mean δ13C signature of −15.65, indicating an decreased reliance on pelagic prey compared to nonnative Leucisids. Nonnative redside shiners and lake chub shared 95% of isotopic niche space, but stable isotope overlap was &lt;25% for comparisons between native longnose dace and the nonnative Leucisids. (4) This study established the diet composition and stable isotope signatures of Leusicids residing in Yellowstone Lake, thus expanding our knowledge of Leucisid feeding patterns and ecology in relation to the native and nonnative species in the ecosystem. We also expand upon our knowledge of Leucisids in North America. Additionally, quantifying minnow diets can provide a baseline for understanding food web response to invasive suppression management actions.

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Key Native Dung Beetles in South American Grasslands

Climate change is a serious threat, and it is necessary to prepare for the future climate conditions of grazing areas. Dung beetle species can help mitigate global warming by contributing to intense nutrient cycling and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions caused by cattle farming. Additionally, dung beetles increase soil quality through bioturbation and reduce nematodes and hematophagous flies’ abundance in grasslands areas. There are several dung beetle species inhabiting South American pastures, however, the effects of climate change on their spatial distribution are still unknown. Here, we aimed to predict the potential effects of future climate change on the geographical spatial distribution of the four most important (“key”) pastureland dung beetle species that are native to South America. We used niche-based models and future climate simulations to predict species distribution through time. Our findings show radical reduction in the spatial range of dung beetle species, especially in recently opened areas, e.g., the Amazon region. We suggest that the consequences of these species’ spatial retraction will be correlated with ecosystem services depletion under future climate conditions, urgently necessitating pasture restoration and parasite control, as the introduction of new alien species is not encouraged.

Application of the MUSLE Model and Potential Effects of Climate Change in a Small Alpine Catchment in Northern Italy

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact of climate change is the object of this work, concerning the use of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was implemented in a Geographical Information System, taking into account Alpine hydrology and geomorphological and climate parameters, which are crucial in the analysis of the intensity and variability of sediment yield production processes. The case study is the Guerna Creek basin, a small-sized mountain watershed placed in Lombardy, in the South-Central Alps (Northern Italy). In recent decades it has been hit at the same time by floods and erosive phenomena, showing its hydraulic-hydrological weakness. Three future climate change scenarios from 2041 to 2060, around the middle of this century, were built according to CORDEX data referring to three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The findings showed that in the future climate, the sediment yield at the basin scale might change by 24–44% for a single heavy storm in the middle of the current century.

Simulating the cumulative effects of potential open-pit mining and climate change on streamflow and water quality in a mountainous watershed

Land use and climate change effects on water quality and water quantity are well documented globally. Most studies evaluate individual factors and effects, without considering the interrelationships between land use, climate, water quality, and water quantity. This study provides an integrated assessment of the cumulative effects of climate change and potential open-pit coal mining on streamflow and water quality in the Oldman River Basin, Alberta, Canada. A hydrological model was developed that incorporates estimates of future selenium loading, water use, and projected changes in air temperature and precipitation to evaluate changes in water quantity and quality. Model results indicate that estimated selenium concentrations, absent any attenuation, are likely to be substantially above most water quality guidelines and strong reliance on mitigation technologies would be required to maintain adequate water quality in the watershed if mine development were to take place. Streamflow is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, and modelling results suggest there are likely to be increases in winter flow, earlier peak flow, and reductions in flow during the summer and fall months under the climate change scenarios. These changes can have direct impacts on the degree of selenium dilution and more generally on aquatic habitat, ecosystem health, and socioeconomic needs. This study highlights that water management decisions may mis-evaluate the risks and tradeoffs of future mine development if they fail to adequately consider climate change and changing streamflow regimes and their indirect effects on water quality.

The current situation and potential effects of climate change on the microbial load of marine bivalves of the Greek coastlines: an integrative review.

Global warming affects the aquatic ecosystems, accelerating pathogenic microorganisms' and toxic microalgae's growth and spread in marine habitats, and in bivalve molluscs. New parasite invasions are directly linked to oceanic warming. Consumption of pathogen-infected molluscs impacts human health at different rates, depending, inter alia, on the bacteria taxa. It is therefore necessary to monitor microbiological and chemical contamination of food. Many global cases of poisoning from bivalve consumption can be traced back to Mediterranean regions. This article aims to examine the marine bivalve's infestation rate within the scope of climate change, as well as to evaluate the risk posed by climate change to bivalve welfare and public health. Biological and climatic data literature review was performed from international scientific sources, Greek authorities and State organizations. Focusing on Greek aquaculture and bivalve fisheries, high-risk index pathogenic parasites and microalgae were observed during summer months, particularly in Thermaikos Gulf. Considering the climate models that predict further temperature increases, it seems that marine organisms will be subjected in the long term to higher temperatures. Due to the positive linkage between temperature and microbial load, the marine areas most affected by this phenomenon are characterized as 'high risk' for consumer health.

Determinants of Adaptation Strategies of Agricultural Farmers to Climate Change Vulnerability in Odisha

Climate change poses severe threat to agriculture sector in terms of welfare losses especially for marginal &amp; smallholder farmers whose main source of livelihood derives from agriculture. It is required to neutralize the potential adverse effects of climate change if welfare losses to this vulnerable segment of the society are to be avoided. So this study aims to assess the agricultural farmers’ vulnerability and determine quantitatively the factors that contribute in adaptation strategies. To accomplish the stated objective, primary surveys of agricultural farmers are designed and data are collected to analyse the results using probit regression model. The study is conducted in the Jagatsinghpur district of Odisha, India. For the study, a total of 197 farmers’ households were surveyed and to assess the vulnerability of farmers’ household to climate change, IPCC-LVI approach is used. Then to identify the determinants of adaptation strategies, a regression model is run using probit model. The results reveal that farmers are moderately vulnerable to climate change in the study area. Further, marginal &amp; small farmers are relatively more vulnerable than medium and large farmers to climate change. It is observed that size of the farm, income level, access to credit facilities, extension training and access to climate &amp; weather information are important determinants of adaptation strategies of farmers. Therefore, the study concludes that better credit facilities, extension training facilities and dissemination of climate information may be done through policy intervention for more adaptation strategies by farmers.

Aphidophagous ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and climate change: a review

Abstract I here review the potential effects of climate change on aphidophagous ladybirds and their future diversity. Aphidophagous ladybirds face challenges arising directly from climatic change and indirect challenges due to the effect of climate on their aphid prey and other organisms with which they interact. Ladybirds show at least some potential to respond to changes of climate through genetic change or phenotypic plasticity, notably through changes in colour pattern, dormancy and voltinism but also through thermal physiology and microhabitat or habitat plasticity. Phenological changes will likely occur in many aphidophagous species arising from relations with their prey. Changes in aphid abundance may lead to changes in ladybird prey associations over the season. The tendency to prey on multiple aphid species will insulate many ladybird predators from decline resulting from changes in the abundance of particular aphids. Like other insects, the geographic ranges of aphidophagous ladybird species will change as they track the climate. This is evidenced by the fossil record of ladybirds and by recent changes in ladybird biogeography. Such changes may be accompanied by a degree of thermal or phenological adaptation. It is likely that cold‐adapted ladybirds and some island species will go extinct. Specialised species may also be threatened. A problem in assessing the threat to the latter is the minimal amount of research carried out on specialised species. In summary, aphidophagous ladybirds exhibit some potential resilience against climate change, but future climatic effects on their overall biodiversity are not fully clear.

Regional Temperature-Ozone Relationships Across the U.S. Under Multiple Climate and Emissions Scenarios

The potential effects of 21st century climate change on ozone (O3) concentrations in the United States are investigated using global climate simulations to drive higher-resolution regional meteorological and chemical transport models. Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, and the resulting meteorological fields are used to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Air quality is modeled for five 11-year periods using both a 2011 air pollutant emission inventory and a future projection accounting for full implementation of promulgated regulatory controls. Across the U.S., CESM projects daily maximum temperatures during summer to increase 1–4 °C by 2050 and 2–7 °C by 2095, while CM3 projects warming of 2–7 °C by 2050 and 4–11 °C by 2095. The meteorological changes have geographically varying impacts on O3 concentrations. Using the 2011 emissions dataset, O3 increases 1–5 ppb in the central Great Plains and Midwest by 2050 and more than 10 ppb by 2095, but it remains unchanged or even decreases in the Gulf Coast, Maine, and parts of the Southwest. Using the projected emissions, modeled increases are attenuated while decreases are amplified, indicating that planned air pollution control measures ameliorate the ozone climate penalty. The relationships between changes in maximum temperature and changes in O3 concentrations are examined spatially and quantified to explore the potential for developing an efficient approach for estimating air quality impacts of other future climate scenarios. Implications Statement: The effects of climate change on ozone air quality in the United States are investigated using two global climate model simulations of a high warming scenario for five decadal periods in the 21st century. Warming summer temperatures simulated under both models lead to higher ozone concentrations in some regions, with the magnitude of the change increasing with temperature over the century. The magnitude and spatial extent of the increases are attenuated under a future emissions projection that accounts for regulatory controls. Regional linear regression relationships are developed as a first step toward development of a reduced form model for efficient estimation of the health impacts attributable to changes in air quality resulting from a climate change scenario.

A unique Pyrenean varved record provides a detailed reconstruction of Mediterranean vegetation and land-use dynamics over the last three millennia

The Pyrenean Lake Montcortès sediments hold the longest continuous and absolutely varve-dated record of the Mediterranean region, encompassing the last three millennia, from the Late Bronze Age to the present. The reconstruction of vegetation and landscape dynamics during this time period has advanced gradually, following the progress of absolute dating by varve counting, and has been progressively published and updated in a number of papers dealing with specific time intervals at different temporal resolutions. This paper synthesizes all these studies in a single composite paleoecological sequence constrained by a single age-depth varve model. The final resolution of this reconstruction is bidecadal, on average, but some periods have been resolved at quasidecadal (Middle Ages) and subdecadal (Modern Age to present) resolutions. The study is focused on the timing of anthropization and the further development of vegetation under climatic and anthropogenic drivers until the shaping of present landscapes. An additional advantage of Montcortès is that the local history of the Pallars region, where the lake is located, is well documented and can be easily correlated with the paleoecological record. Contrary to former interpretations of general landscape anthropization of the Pyrenees during the Middle Ages, the Montcortès catchment was irreversibly transformed by anthropic activities at the beginning of the Iron Age (ca. 750-650 BCE). From this point, the catchment underwent successive transformations due to varied human uses (fire, grazing, cereal cultivation, weed/ruderal plant expansions, hemp cultivation/retting), which have been related to the different cultural phases and sociopolitical changes documented in the local historical records. The regional forests, dominated by Pinus and Quercus, experienced four main clearance events (RD) during the Iron Age (RD1; ca. 300 BCE), the Roman Period (RD2; ca. 300 CE), the Middle Ages (RD3; ca. 1000 CE) and the Modern Age (RD4; ca. 1800 CE). The detailed trends of the last two deforestation events and their causes could be studied at a decadal resolution, which significantly improved interpretation quality in ecological terms. The potential effects of climatic changes and the eventual interactions with human activities on catchment vegetation and regional forests throughout the record have also been discussed. The Montcortès record has been compared with other records at local (Pyrenees), regional (Iberian Peninsula) and biome (Mediterranean) scales. Locally and regionally, anthropization times and further ecological trends showed significant heterogeneity according to elevation, biogeographical patterns and cultural trends. The most significant coincidence is an intensification of human pressure, as noted in forest clearing and extensive land use, during several phases of the Middle Ages. At the Mediterranean level, the Montcortès record emerges as a unique sequence for the western sector of this biome that should be complemented with similar archives from the central and eastern Mediterranean. The most promising candidates for such sequences are discussed on the basis of available Mediterranean varved records.

Increased Temperature Influenced Growth and Development of Lithobates pipiens Tadpoles Exposed to Leachates of the Invasive Plant European Buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica) and a Triclopyr Herbicide.

Multiple factors including habitat loss, pollutants, invasive species, and disease have contributed to the global decline of amphibians, and further declines can be expected as a result of climate change. Warming temperatures may allow for range expansion of invasive plants, and because herbicides are the primary method to control invasive plants, chemical use may increase. A laboratory experiment was performed to examine the individual and combined effects of leachates from the invasive plant European buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica, L.) and a triclopyr herbicide (Renovate® 3; 0.21 mg/L), which is commonly used to manage R. cathartica, on northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens, Schreber) tadpoles at 2 temperature regimes (20 and 25 °C). We measured tadpole growth weekly and body and intestine morphology at the conclusion of the experiment after 8 wk. In the presence of R. cathartica leachates, tadpole growth increased at 25 °C, but only during the first 3 to 4 wk of the experiment. From week 5 until the end of the experiment, tadpoles were significantly smaller at 25 °C compared with 20 °C, but had more developed limb buds at the end of the experiment (except in the triclopyr treatment). Triclopyr had minimal effects on tadpole growth at the low dose used in this study. These results encourage further examination of potential effects of global climate changes in combination with other environmental factors that may impact amphibian populations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2547-2558. © 2021 SETAC.

Elevation as an occupancy determinant of the little red brocket deer (&lt;i&gt;Mazama rufina&lt;/i&gt;) in the Central Andes of Colombia

We assessed the influence of terrain variables on the occupancy of the little red brocket deer (Mazama rufina) in the Central Andes of Colombia. Occupancy increased with elevation up to 3000, where it starts decreasing. This information is crucial to predict the potential effects of climate change on M. rufina and other mountain species.

A simple model for the effect of thermal stress on the productivity of small ruminants

Projected climatic changes are expected to change temperature and precipitation patterns and to increase the frequency of extreme events in many regions of the world. This will affect livestock systems through direct effects on animal performance as a result of thermal stress. The purpose of this work is to develop a model that is able to estimate the potential impact of thermal stress on the productivity of small ruminants. To do so, a semi-mechanistic model is proposed, based on an energy balance perspective and the application of the temperature-humidity index (THI) as an indicator of the heat stress severity level. The effect of thermal stress on animal's energy balance is captured by two main mechanisms: i) an increase in energy maintenance requirements and ii) a modification on feed intake. As a result of energy imbalance, the decline on animal productivity is estimated (i.e. milk yield, tissue growth). The different components of the model have been tested against available experimental data, showing that it is able to capture non-linear productivity losses across a range of heat stress conditions and systems. Finally, the applicability of the model is tested with dfifferent examples, and limitations and strengths are discussed. Despite some constraints, we highlight its relative simplicity and flexibility, so it would be feasible to be integrated into whole farm modelling approaches and/or feed requirement systems for small ruminants. This will help to predict the potential consequences of climate change on productivity, and to explore appropriate adaptation strategies.

Integrating functional traits into correlative species distribution models to investigate the vulnerability of marine human activities to climate change

Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Marine aquaculture is one among the most economic anthropogenic activities threatened by multiple stressors and in turn, by increasing hard artificial substrates at sea would facilitate the expansion of these problematic organisms and face negative consequences regarding facilities management and farmed organisms’ welfare. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are considered powerful tools for forecasting the future occurrences and distributions of problematic species used to preventively aware stakeholders. In the current study, we propose the use of combined correlative SDMs and mechanistic models, based on individual thermal performance curve models calculated through non-linear least squares regression and Bayesian statistics (functional-SDM), as an ecological relevant tool to increase our ability to investigate the potential indirect effect of climate change on the distributions of harmful species for human activities at sea, taking aquaculture as a food productive example and the benthic cnidarian Pennaria disticha (one of the most pernicious fouling species in aquaculture) as model species. Our combined approach was able to improve the prediction ability of both mechanistic and correlative models to get more ecologically informed “whole” niche of the studied species. Incorporating the mechanistic links between the organisms’ functional traits and their environments into SDMs through the use of a Bayesian functional-SDM approach would be a useful and reliable tool in early warning ecological systems, risk assessment and management actions focused on important economic activities and natural ecosystems conservation.

Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests

Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences.

Iberian Protected Areas Capture Regional Functional, Phylogenetic and Taxonomic Diversity of Most Tetrapod Groups

Protected areas (PAs) have been created with the purpose of preserving biodiversity, acting as refuges from anthropogenic pressures. Traditionally, PAs have been designed and managed to represent mainly taxonomic diversity, ignoring other diversity facets such as its functional and phylogenetic components. Yet, functional and phylogenetic diversity are, respectively, connected with species’ roles on ecosystems and evolutionary history held within communities. Here, we focused on the amphibian, reptile, resident breeding bird, and non-flying mammal faunas of the national and natural parks of the Iberian Peninsula, to evaluate whether these PAs are adequately representing regional functional, phylogenetic, and taxonomic diversity of each group. Specifically, we computed functional and phylogenetic diversity within each PA, and then compared those values to the ones obtained from a random assembly of species from the regional pool, that was defined as the region encompassing the PA and a neighboring area of 50 km beyond its boundary. We also calculated the proportion of species in each regional pool that were present within the PAs. In general, the functional and phylogenetic diversity of amphibians, reptiles and non-flying mammals found within PAs did not differ significantly from random expectations generated from the species pertaining to the regional pool, although a few PAs showed a higher diversity. In contrast, resident breeding birds presented lower functional and phylogenetic diversity than expected by chance in many of the PAs, which could relate to climatic variables and the habitat specificity of some species. The proportion of species from the regional pools that are present in the PAs was high for amphibians, reptiles and mammals, and slightly lower for birds. These results suggest that the Iberian natural and national parks are effectively capturing the functional, phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity of most tetrapod assemblages present at the regional level. Future studies should identify priority areas to expand the representation of these biodiversity components, and assess potential effects of climate and land-use changes on current patterns.

Impact of COVID climate on global crisis and biodiversity

Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are “tipping points” where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular “tipping point”, thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multi sectored approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat