Potential Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

The potential effects of climate change on the populations of Aedes punctor (Diptera: Culicidae) in Hungary

In Hungary, the boreal-alpine mosquito Aedes punctor has a disjunct distribution limited to the Hungarian mid-mountains. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential effect of global warming on the future (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) climatic suitability for the mosquito in Hungary. The results indicate the heterogeneous, but in general, the negative effect of climate change on the distribution area of Aedes punctor in this region. The models predict the total loss of mosquito habitat in the Transdanubian mountain ranges (Bakony-Balaton and Mecsek Mts.) for 2061–2080. In the North Hungarian Mountains (in the Mátra Mts.), climatic alterations may result in the habitat contraction, but not total disappearance of the climatically suitable areas for Aedes punctor at higher elevations of mountain ranges. It can be concluded that climate change can cause the altitudinal shift of the suitable habitats and the range-contraction of Hungarian middle mountains-inhabiting populations of the mosquito in Hungary in the second half of the twenty-first century assuming that the future climatic needs of the species would remain the same as at present.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability on the maximum precipitation, temperature, and hydrological regime in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru. The outputs of precipitation and daily temperature of fifteen regional climate models were used for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The methodology used includes the bias correction and downscaling of meteorological variables using the quintiles mapping technique, hydrological modeling, the evaluation of two emission scenarios, and its effect on the maximum flows of the stream. The results of the multi-model ensemble show that the maximum annual precipitation will probably increase by more than 30% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 period relative to the 1981–2005 period. Likewise, as expected, the maximum flows could increase by 220% and 154% for the RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, and 234% and 484% for the RCP8.5 scenarios and for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, concerning the recorded historical value, increasing the probability of flood events and damage in populations located downstream.

Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil

This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.

Spatial heterogeneity of the seed bank at a peat lake in Australia

Context In the face of global biodiversity decline, understanding the effects of potential climate change on the persistence of soil seed banks is critical, especially in wetland ecosystems. Although studies have explored the response of soil seed banks to changes in periodically inundated wetlands, little is understood about seed banks in peatlands. Aims We examined the spatial variability of soil seed banks during a recent drying event, the last of which occurred over 60 years ago. Methods We sampled the soil seed bank in three zones away from the centre of the dry lakebed at five depth intervals down to 50 cm. Key results Our study showed that the seed bank distribution in a peatland reflected the wetland plants examined at the time of the drying event. The distribution of seeds was along a flood gradient, suggesting an interaction between historical inundation intensity (Zone) and vertical (Depth) distribution of seeds, and correlated with the extant vegetation, as determined during a significant water drawdown period. Conclusions and implications This study shows that the ability of seeds to survive burial, either submerged or desiccated, even after long periods, may prove to have advantages for plant survival and establishment.

Update on incidences of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) in Scottish freshwaters

An update on incidences of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) in Scottish freshwaters is provided, highlighting the number of incidences and common cyanobacteria taxa recorded, and outlining potential effects of climate change on future bloom events.

A 1900 Year Sediment Record Suggests Recent Establishment of Black Mangrove (Avicennia Germinans) Stands within a Salt Marsh in St. Augustine, Florida, USA

Salt marshes and mangroves are currently being affected by rising temperatures. Mangroves thrive below −29° N latitude in Florida, USA, and have a low tolerance for extreme cold events, whereas salt marshes dominate further north. One potential effect of climate change is a reduction in the frequency of extreme cold events, which may lead to mangrove expansion into salt marsh systems. Our research identified sediment proxy indicators of salt marsh and mangrove environments. These indicators were applied to soil cores from intertidal wetlands near the current northern limit of mangrove presence on the east coast of Florida, to determine if mangrove expansion into salt marsh environments has precedence in the deeper past. Our findings suggest that mangrove and salt marsh sediments can be distinguished using a combination of stable carbon isotope ratios of sedimentary organic matter and macroscopic plant fragments, and our results showed that a mangrove stand that we cored established only recently. This result is consistent with other work in the southeastern United States that suggests that mangroves established at the current boreal limit only recently after the end of the Little Ice Age, and that the current mangrove expansion may be fueled by anthropogenic climate change.

Weather and climate change drive annual variation of reproduction by an aerial insectivore

For many bird species, but especially aerial insectivores, reproduction depends on weather. Climate change is likely to intensify effects, but with uncertain consequences. We report 22 years of data on Eastern Kingbird (<em>Tyrannus tyrannus</em>) reproduction for two populations located in different hygric environments undergoing climate change; mesic central New York, USA, (NY; 12 years) and xeric southeastern Oregon, USA, (OR: 10 years). Laying date became earlier with increasing temperature in the 30-day period preceding laying in identical fashion at both sites, and in years of early laying, clutch size was larger, length of laying season increased, and failed initial nesting attempts were more often replaced. High temperature in the 10-days preceding mean laying date was associated with shorter laying seasons, while a site by 10-day temperature interaction reflected an increase and decrease of clutch size with increasing 10-day temperature in NY and OR, respectively. Seasonal rate of clutch size decline was higher when the laying season was short but also slowed in xeric OR when rain was abundant in the 10-days prior to mean laying date. Nest predation drove annual variation in young fledged/nest, but the latter also increased and decreased with increasing maximum temperature during the nestling phase in mesic NY and xeric OR, respectively. Potential effects of climate change on kingbird populations are thus high given the dependence of reproduction on weather, and climate change likely contributed to declines of kingbirds in OR. Declines of kingbirds in NY appear unrelated to warming climates because higher temperatures advanced laying dates and yielded greater nest productivity. However, length of laying season declined across years at both sites, and thus early season gains may be negated by poor conditions late in the season that may be causing shorter laying seasons. Further work is needed to identify causes for the latter changes.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation Domains in North Minas Gerais, Brazil – South America

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation Domains in North Minas Gerais, Brazil – South America

Assessing Climate Suitability of Three Cities for the 2027 Women’s World Cup

Given the impacts of climate change, sport event organizations need to adapt to changes in their environment to remain feasible, safe, competitive, and profitable. Mega-events such as the Olympic Games and Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cups take years to plan and, ideally, produce long-lasting legacy benefits for their host communities. In awarding these events to host cities and countries, the rightsholders must carefully consider the local climate to ensure that playing conditions will be safe and competitive. This case study examines the prospective 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup bid in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands and invites students to put themselves in the position of a joint bid committee, which must assess the suitability of three cities (Brussels, Berlin, and Amsterdam) for hosting based on their climate. Furthermore, students will be asked to identify climate adaptation strategies that might be adopted by the prospective host committees to accommodate any potential climate challenges. Through this case study, students will learn to investigate the potential effects of climate, climate change, and weather issues on a mega-event; explore the relationship between sport and the natural environment; and learn to source climate data for their own communities and organizations.

Impact of climate changes on the insurance market

The problem of climate change is a current social problem in today's civilization. At the same time, it is an ecological problem, but also an economic, political, social, cultural, health problem, etc. It is a global environmental problem, and for this reason we are talking about global climate changes, which affect states, nations, continents, regardless of where they are and what their degree of guilt is in creating and maintaining these changes. The problem of climate change is not easy to define within the framework of only one science, regardless of whether it is natural or social sciences. Bearing in mind the causes and consequences of this social and natural problem, as well as the survival of the natural world and civilization, the question of the context and basis in which this problem can be thought through scientifically also naturally arises. According to all the indicators of various researches of insurance companies, the insurance sector is increasingly involved in the management of risks related to climate change. The issue of determining the potential short-term and long-term effects of climate change on the operations of insurance and reinsurance companies is a priority and the ultimate goal is to find measures to minimize risks and damages. That is why the insurance sector must include climate change in its risk assessment and in that way adequately adjust its product, i.e. insurance.

Bioclimatic changes in ecoregions of southern South America: Trends and projections based on Holdridge life zones

AbstractModelling the potential impacts of future climate on ecosystems provides important information for environmental planning and management. The Holdridge life zones system is a land classification based on simple bioclimatic variables that can be used for evaluating the potential effect of future climates on ecosystems. However, information on future bioclimatic changes in ecoregions of southern South America is too coarse, or unavailable. Our main goals were to evaluate the usefulness of a simple bioclimatic classification system to assess the potential effects of climate change on ecological systems, and to what extent such changes would affect the ecoregions of Argentina. We analysed the multivariate distance between ecoregions of Argentina based on the area occupied by each life zone in each ecoregion and conducted an ordination of ecoregions under current and future climate scenarios. We also evaluated the correspondence between the boundaries of ecoregions and life zones. Overall, the ecoregions of Argentina are expected to face substantial change in bioclimatic conditions. In particular, ecoregions at high latitudes (e.g. Bosques Patagonicos) or altitudes (e.g. Altos Andes) are projected to exhibit similar bioclimatic conditions to ecoregions at lower latitudes or altitudes under current climate (e.g. Estepa Patagonica, Puna). The boundaries of ecoregions tended to coincide with those of life zones only in two cases and partial coincidence was the most frequent result. Further, the analysis of uncertainties of local climate data allowed to identify ecoregions where the results might be less reliable. Our study provides insights to improve conservation planning and management in Argentina. Integrating ecoregions and Holdridge life zones proved to be a useful approach for understanding the potential effects of future climate changes on ecological systems.

Exploring Humanitarian response strategies in the aftermath of disasters induced by climate change in Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT This study explored the humanitarian responses to the scourges of climate change-related disasters in the Chimanimani district of Zimbabwe in southern Africa. This is against the backdrop of climate-induced disasters that have plagued the region before, with some of its consequences visible in the present day. Eleven humanitarian organisations that can aid victims of Cyclone Idai in 2019 were selected through purposive and convenience sampling. In-depth interviews were used to collect data. Also, data from which the findings were derived were analysed in terms of their thematic content. The study established that there was a commendable response from humanitarian organisations in addressing the destructive consequences of the cyclone. Some of the response strategies included the provision of food and non-food items, psychosocial support and counselling services, the protection of women and girls from abuse, reconstruction, and rehabilitation of infrastructure. We recommend that humanitarian organisations need to strengthen their disaster preparedness strategies in anticipation of unpredicted and potential destructive effects of climate change that place human lives and livelihoods at great risk.

Potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to detect potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. We obtained the presence/absence data of five dominant and characteristic macrobenthos from 268 sites investigated during 2000–2016 and 13 environmental variables from online datasets. The ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for all five species. Model projections showed that the five species displayed different reactions to future climate scenarios: two species (the ophiuroid Ophiura sarsii vadicola and the bivalve Thyasira tokunagai) will likely contract their ranges, two (the crab Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides and the polychaete Sternaspis chinensis) will likely expand their ranges, and one (the ophiuroid Amphioplus japonicus) will likely move northward. Those differences were mainly due to their difference in thermal tolerance. Our findings provide important scientific basis for understanding the influence of climate change on marine benthic ecosystems.

Stage-specific influence of temperature on the growth rate of Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) in early life.

Since 1850, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding one. Warming could make a major contribution to the growth of fish larvae. To evaluate the influence of water temperature on the growth of larvae who spawned in later spring and early summer, we selected Scomberomorus niphonius, which has important ecological and economic value as a sample fish species. We conducted high-resolution spatiotemporal surveys during the 2015 spawning season at an important spawning ground in China. We found that the temperature required for larval survival was stricter than that for spawning. Within the appropriate temperature range, a rapid rise in water temperature was favourable for larval hatching, but S. niphonius hatched at relatively low temperature exhibited a faster growth rate in the yolk-sac and pre-flexion stages. The accumulated temperature and hatching temperature significantly affected the growth rate of S. niphonius larvae. The model that considered developmental stages provided a better explanation of the data than the model that only considered the temperature effect. The model improvement in terms of variance explained was higher for the early developmental stages than for the later developmental stages, suggesting that stage-specific temperature influences were prominent in the earlier stages, like the yolk-sac stage, and then reduced. Our results implied that water temperature anomalies could be hazardous to fish larvae, especially for fish spawning in late spring and early summer. Given that early-life stage fish are highly sensitive to water temperature, it is imperative to incorporate the potential effects of climate change into fisheries management.

Climate change effects on the ecophysiology and ecological functioning of an offshore wind farm artificial hard substrate community

In the effort towards a decarbonised future, the local effects of a proliferating offshore wind farm (OWF) industry add to and interact with the global effects of marine climate change. This study aimed to quantify potential ecophysiological effects of ocean warming and acidification and to estimate and compare the cumulative clearance potential of suspended food items by OWF epifauna under current and future climate conditions. To this end, this study combined ecophysiological responses to ocean warming and acidification of three dominant colonising species on OWF artificial hard substrates (the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, the tube-building amphipod Jassa herdmani and the plumose anemone Metridium senile). In general, mortality, respiration rate and clearance rate increased during 3- to 6-week experimental exposures across all three species, except for M. senile, who exhibited a lower clearance rate in the warmed treatments (+3 °C) and an insensitivity to lowered pH (−0.3 pH units) in terms of survival and respiration rate. Ocean warming and acidification affected growth antagonistically, with elevated temperature being beneficial for M. edulis and lowered pH being beneficial for M. senile. The seawater volume potentially cleared from suspended food particles by this AHS colonising community increased significantly, extending the affected distance around an OWF foundation by 9.2% in a future climate scenario. By using an experimental multi-stressor approach, this study thus demonstrates how ecophysiology underpins functional responses to climate change in these environments, highlighting for the first time the integrated, cascading potential effects of OWFs and climate change on the marine ecosystem.

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spatial Aggregation of Giant Pandas and Sympatric Species in a Mountainous Landscape.

Simple SummaryClimate change has been regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity by altering habitats and food sources for wildlife as well as the function of ecosystems. The giant panda is an endangered endemic species in China and a flagship species of the world’s biodiversity conservation. Previous studies mostly focused on the effect of climate change on the giant panda itself. Few studies have addressed potential niche overlapping and interspecific competition between giant pandas and sympatric competitive species under future climate change. By assessing the spatial overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric competitive animals changes under future climate conditions in the Qinling Mountains, we found that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting of the spatial aggregation between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. New protected areas may need to be planned in order to maintain suitable habitats able to promote the survival of the species to climate changes.Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.

Interactions Between Environment and Genetic Diversity in Perennial Grass Phenology: A Review of Processes at Plant Scale and Modeling.

In perennial grasses, the reproductive development consists of major phenological stages which highly determine the seasonal variations of grassland biomass production in terms of quantity and quality. The reproductive development is regulated by climatic conditions through complex interactions subjected to high genetic diversity. Understanding these interactions and their impact on plant development and growth is essential to optimize grassland management and identify the potential consequences of climate change. Here, we review the main stages of reproductive development, from floral induction to heading, i.e., spike emergence, considering the effect of the environmental conditions and the genetic diversity observed in perennial grasses. We first describe the determinants and consequences of reproductive development at individual tiller scale before examining the interactions between plant tillers and their impact on grassland perenniality. Then, we review the available grassland models through their ability to account for the complexity of reproductive development and genetic × environmental interactions. This review shows that (1) The reproductive development of perennial grasses is characterized by a large intraspecific diversity which has the same order of magnitude as the diversity observed between species or environmental conditions. (2) The reproductive development is determined by complex interactions between the processes of floral induction and morphogenesis of the tiller. (3) The perenniality of a plant is dependent on the reproductive behavior of each tiller. (4) Published models only partly explain the complex interactions between morphogenesis and climate on reproductive development. (5) Introducing more explicitly the underlying processes involved in reproductive development in models would improve our ability to anticipate grassland behavior in future growth conditions.

The Effects of Climate Change on Landscape Connectivity and Genetic Clusters in a Small Subtropical and Warm-Temperate Tree.

Climate change is a great threat to global biodiversity and has resulted in serious ecological consequences. Although the potential effects of climate change on genetic diversity have recently received much research attention, little research has focused on the impacts of climate change on genetic connectivity and the relationship between climate stability and genetic divergence. Here, we combined population connectivity with genetic data to predict the impacts of future climate change on genetic connectivity. Coupled with climatic variables and genetic data, we used POPS software to create spatially explicit simulations and predict the dynamics in genetic clusters in response to climate changes. A generalized additive model was employed to test the correlation between climatic stability and genetic diversification. Our findings indicated that a reduction in species distribution due to severe climate change would lead to a substantial loss of genetic connectivity. More severe future climatic scenarios would likely cause greater loss of variability or more distinct homogenization in genetic variation of species. Relatively low interpolated genetic distances are generally associated with areas of greater losses in climatic suitability from the present to the future. The displacement of climatic genetic clusters will challenge species adaptation to future climate change because of the loss of fundamental evolutionary potential. The persistence capacity of plant species may be weakened in the face of future climate change.

Investigation of impact of climate change on small catchments using different climate models and statistical approaches

Abstract The use of a statistical downscaling technique is needed to investigate the hydrological consequences of climate change on the local hydropower capacity. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are crucial tools used in various simulations for potential climate change effects, including precipitation and temperature. Statistical downscaling methods comprise the improvement of relations between the large-scale climatic parameters and the local variables. This study presents the trend analysis of the observed variables compared to the statistically downscaled emission scenarios that are adopted from the Canadian Second Generation Earth Systems Model (CanESM2) in the basin of Göksu River which is located in Turkey. The key purpose of the research is to evaluate both the predicted monthly precipitation and the projections of GCMs within the three simulated scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 by Gene Expression Programming (GEP). In addition, the findings of statistical downscaling of monthly mean precipitation will be compared to the Linear Regression (LR) model. The R-value is 0.827 and 0.755 for precipitation of the GEP model for the periods of calibrating and validation. In comparison with the LR model for the validation and calibration periods (1971–2005), the results of the GEP model prove its applicability in projecting the data for monthly mean rainfall. Generally, in the simulated periods of 2021–2100, the mentioned scenarios forecast a decline in the monthly mean precipitation in the basin. Moreover, the scenario of RCP8.5 projected more suitably for the case study than expected under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The mean statistically downscaled CanESM2 model was compared with the trend analysis of the areal mean precipitation over the case study area, and the trend was shown as decreasing. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was the more quasi-asymptotic for trend.

Effects of climate change on the moisture performance and durability of brick veneer walls of wood frame construction in Canada

The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the moisture performance and durability of red matt clay brick veneer walls of wood frame construction on the basis of results derived from hygrothermal simulations. One-dimensional simulations were run using DELPHIN 5.9 for selected moisture reference years of the 15 realizations of modelled historical (H: 1986-2016) and future (F: 2062-2092) climate data of 12 Canadian cities. The mold growth index at the outer layer of the OSB sheathing panel was used to compare the moisture performance under H and F periods. Results for the base design that meet the minimum requirements of the National Building Code of Canada showed that cities within the interior of the country, characterized by a low annual rainfall, are less likely to develop significant mold growth under H and F periods, whereas cities in coastal areas, characterized by high annual rainfall, present a heightened risk to mold growth under both H and F periods. For cities located on the west coast, a possible solution could be to use a 38-mm ventilated drainage cavity as this measure would help dissipate moisture from within the cavity. On the east coast, apart from using a 38-mm ventilated drainage cavity, other measures aiming at reducing the wind-driven rain deposition (i.e., increasing overhang ratio or the height of the roof) could be introduced. However, the feasibility of such measures needs to be considered in respect to whether these are to be implemented as part of a new building or retrofit of an existing one.