The potential effects of climate change on the populations of Aedes punctor (Diptera: Culicidae) in Hungary

Abstract

In Hungary, the boreal-alpine mosquito Aedes punctor has a disjunct distribution limited to the Hungarian mid-mountains. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential effect of global warming on the future (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) climatic suitability for the mosquito in Hungary. The results indicate the heterogeneous, but in general, the negative effect of climate change on the distribution area of Aedes punctor in this region. The models predict the total loss of mosquito habitat in the Transdanubian mountain ranges (Bakony-Balaton and Mecsek Mts.) for 2061–2080. In the North Hungarian Mountains (in the Mátra Mts.), climatic alterations may result in the habitat contraction, but not total disappearance of the climatically suitable areas for Aedes punctor at higher elevations of mountain ranges. It can be concluded that climate change can cause the altitudinal shift of the suitable habitats and the range-contraction of Hungarian middle mountains-inhabiting populations of the mosquito in Hungary in the second half of the twenty-first century assuming that the future climatic needs of the species would remain the same as at present.