Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests

Hadi Heidari,Travis Warziniack,Mazdak Arabi

doi:10.3390/atmos12080981

Hadi Heidari, Travis Warziniack + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080981

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Abstract

Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences.

Highlights

Wildfires have increased in size and frequency throughout western United States national forests between 1980–2015 [1,2,3,4,5,6]
This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on changes in natural-caused wildfire events in western United States national forests from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions
Fire activity on national forests is projected to increase over the 21st century in response to future increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation, indicating that western United States national forests are likely to face an increased wildfire risk under climate change

Summary

Introduction

Wildfires have increased in size and frequency throughout western United States national forests between 1980–2015 [1,2,3,4,5,6]. A USD 3.13 billion, annually, was invested in wildfire protection by federal agencies from 2002 to 2012 and approximately 4500 km are annually affected in the United States [13]. This number is on the rise as fire events become more frequent and their damage becomes more catastrophic [13]. Wildfire losses in developed areas could substantially increase in the western United States due to the expanding wildland–urban interface [12] in which the buildup of forest fuels coupled with increasing aridification, drought, and urbanization [8,14,15] are likely to catalyze plume-driven fires spreading to developed areas. As wildfire losses continue to grow and the WUI problems gain more attention, the enhanced understanding of changes in future forest fires is vital and further study is needed to develop community mitigation and planning strategies to adapt to the increasing incidence of natural-caused forest fires [12]

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