Potential effects of climate change on a semi-permanent prairie wetland

Abstract

We assessed the potential effects of a greenhouse gas-induced global climate change on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. An 11-yr simulation was run using current versus enhanced greenhouse gas climates. Projections of climatic change were from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model. Simulations were also run using a range of temperature (+2 and +4 °C) and precipitation change values (−20, −10, 0, +10, +20%) to determine the responsiveness of wetland vegetation and hydrology to a variety of climate scenarios. Maximum water depths were significantly less under the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario than under the current climate. The wetland dried in most years with increased temperature and changes in precipitation. Simulations also revealed a significant change in the vegetation, from a nearly balanced emergent cover to open water ratio to a completely closed basin with no open water areas. Simulations over a range of climate change scenarios showed that precipitation changes (particularly increases) had a greater impact on water levels and cover ratios when the temperature increase was moderate (+2 °C). These potential changes in wetland hydrology and vegetation could result in a dramatic decline in the quality of habitat for breeding birds, particularly waterfowl. Continued research on climate and wetland modeling is needed.