Application of the MUSLE Model and Potential Effects of Climate Change in a Small Alpine Catchment in Northern Italy

Francesca Berteni,Giovanna Grossi,Arianna Dada

doi:10.3390/w13192679

Abstract

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact of climate change is the object of this work, concerning the use of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was implemented in a Geographical Information System, taking into account Alpine hydrology and geomorphological and climate parameters, which are crucial in the analysis of the intensity and variability of sediment yield production processes. The case study is the Guerna Creek basin, a small-sized mountain watershed placed in Lombardy, in the South-Central Alps (Northern Italy). In recent decades it has been hit at the same time by floods and erosive phenomena, showing its hydraulic-hydrological weakness. Three future climate change scenarios from 2041 to 2060, around the middle of this century, were built according to CORDEX data referring to three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The findings showed that in the future climate, the sediment yield at the basin scale might change by 24–44% for a single heavy storm in the middle of the current century.

Highlights

Soil erosion processes, which normally contribute to the natural evolution of the landscape, might reach very high intensities during heavy storms and turn into uncontrolled phenomena leading in the worst cases to desertification [1,2,3]
The findings showed that in the future climate, the sediment yield at the basin scale might change by 24–44% for a single heavy storm in the middle of the current century
To get to this point, rainfall data were used to create the hydrograph at the outlet of the study area, in order to find the volume of runoff (V = 1,086,343 m3 ) and the peak flow rate (Q = 101.2 m3 /s) and to calculate the runoff Rd factor

Summary

Introduction

Soil erosion processes, which normally contribute to the natural evolution of the landscape, might reach very high intensities during heavy storms and turn into uncontrolled phenomena leading in the worst cases to desertification [1,2,3]. Sediment yield can raise challenging sustainability issues for the management of both the ecosystem and the built infrastructure, and this applies especially to lakes and reservoirs [10,11]. On one side extraordinary meteorological events, on the other side land use change and unsustainable agricultural practices might strongly disturb the natural balance between the soil and the atmosphere. In several sites of the Alpine region, an increase in the frequency of heavy storms might add to an increase in the rainfall peak intensity, leading to a higher amount of sediment yield and urging for more sustainable management practices to be adopted.

Objectives

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion