Abstract
Climate and land-use changes are the main drivers of species distribution. On the basis of current and future climate and socioeconomic scenarios, species range projections were made for nine species in the Fabaceae family. Modeled species have instrumental and relational values termed as nature’s contribution to people (NCP). For each species, five scenarios were analyzed resulting in 45 species range maps. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 1, 2, and 3) were used in the analysis. Species ranges under these scenarios were modeled using MaxEnt; a niche modeling software that relates species occurrence with environmental variables. Results were used to compute species richness and evenness based on Shannon’s diversity Index. Results revealed a mix of range expansion and contraction for the modeled species. The findings highlighted which species may remain competitive in an urbanized future and which ones are detrimentally affected by climate. Parts of the country where species abundances are likely to change due to climate and socioeconomic changes were identified. Management of species will be required in people-dominated landscapes to maintain interactions between nature and society, while avoiding natural resource degradation and loss of NCP.
Highlights
Human wellbeing and the environment are the main focuses of sustainability [1]
This study modeled ecological niches of nine species from four genera in the Fabaceae family using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling algorithm
Climate impact was assessed by contrasting current distributions with future distributions using projections by MIROC-ES2L and the Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, while socioeconomic trends were analyzed using three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
Summary
Human wellbeing and the environment are the main focuses of sustainability [1]. These two entities are interdependent, that is, natural resources have many use (instrumental) and non-use (relational) values recently described as nature’s contributions to people (NCP) by Diaz et al [2], whereas humans are managers of these resources. The UN Millenium Assessment, in 2005, established that demographic change was the major driver of land cover change. Land cover change, along with climate change [5], are the direct drivers of biodiversity change. Changing climate may alter the establishment of species and lead to loss of NCP [6]. Species are already responding to climatic changes [7,8]
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