Positive Net Migration Research Articles

Teacher migration in the Kaliningrad region and its impact on the exclave's economic security

The Kaliningrad region is one of the Russian Federation's subjects enjoying a considerable migration gain. At the end of 2021, it ranked fifth in the top 10 in positive net migration after Sevastopol, the Kaluga and the Leningrad regions, and the Republic of Adygea. However, the occupational and age composition of migrants does not fully meet the needs of its labour market, despite the region's active policy to attract and redeploy workforce. A relatively stable influx of teacher migrants and in-region training do not fill all available vacancies in the Kaliningrad region's education industry. The research problem from the economic security perspective is the scale of teacher migration, the correspondence of their qualifications and subject areas to the region's needs, their distribution within the region, and the effectiveness and efficiency of current resettlement support measures. The paper analyses the relocated teachers' and school principals' perception of factors and limitations of skilled migration, relocation support measures, features and challenges of settlement in the region based on the results of semi-structured biographical interviews conducted in the summer of 2022. The study identifies major strategies for teacher migration to the Kaliningrad region that determine the main possible scenarios for changes in its scale in view of the geography of donor regions and support measure development. Situational forecasting methods allowed for calculating the indicators for general education staff movement factoring in the influx of migrants and identifying the demand for teachers. This provided the basis for the assessment of achieved economic security. The study shows that ensuring the economic security of the exclave in education in the context of increasing migration is possible only given the implementation of active development measures and the use of internal human resources. This involves not so much the training of personnel as increased employment and retention, as well as the targeted attraction and settlement of teachers from the rest of Russia.

Distribution and Migration of Recent Healthcare Graduates in Canada.

Although data on new graduates are available and typically included in the health workforce planning (HWP) model, information on their interprovincial migration pattern is less known. This paper aims to understand the mobility pattern of recent healthcare graduates - family physicians and regulated nurses - across the different Canadian jurisdictions. Health workforce data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) were used to identify recent family physician and regulated nurse graduates. We identified new graduates (between 2015 and 2019) in a particular province and distributed them according to the province/territory in which they registered to practise. The jurisdiction where they are trained is a key factor in determining their migration rates. For both professions, Ontario and British Columbia have the lowest rates of new graduate out-migration and the highest rates of in-migration, leaving them with a positive net interprovincial migration. This analysis can be used to inform better HWP at the jurisdictional level in these professions. Working and community conditions matter to keep and attract new graduates.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic change internal rural migration patterns in Serbia?

Recent empirical research on internal migration has focused on the change in migration volume, before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, by the degree of urbanization. Less is known about the types of rural areas that are attracting internal migrants. This study aims to explore the changes in internal rural migration patterns in Serbia due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the types of rural settlements as places of destinations and types of urban settlements as places of the origin of migrants. Relying on the additionally processed official national annual statistical data for the period 2018–2021, we offer findings on the differences in volume and socio-demographic characteristics of migrants across six internal migration flows (from small towns, medium-sized towns, and large cities, to suburban and non-suburban rural settlements). The results reveal that the pandemic affected an increase of rural–rural migration as well as rural in-migration from medium-sized towns. We also find that after an initial drop in values for in- and out-migration rates in 2020, relocation intensity exceeded the pre-pandemic level in 2021, with a positive net migration rate for all age groups except 15–30. The unfavorable economic characteristics of rural in-migrants shifted slightly in pandemic years since the share of active and population with personal means rose in non-suburban settlements, while the percentage of dependent population decreased. The opposite holds for suburban settlements.

World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and death (2,067 administrative units) rates. We show that, globally, around 50% of the world’s urban population lived in areas where migration accelerated urban population growth, while a third of the global population lived in provinces where rural areas experienced positive net migration. Finally, we show that, globally, socioeconomic factors are more strongly associated with migration patterns than climatic factors. While our method is dependent on census data, incurring notable uncertainties in regions where census data coverage or quality is low, we were able to capture migration patterns not only between but also within countries, as well as by socioeconomic and geophysical zonings. Our results highlight the importance of subnational analysis of migration—a necessity for policy design, international cooperation and shared responsibility for managing internal and international migration.

Why and Where Do Highly Educated Workers Relocate? A National-Level Analysis across U.S. Census Regions

Like those in other advanced economies, local American governments attempt to attract and retain skilled workers in their areas. This study aims to examine the determinants and spatial patterns of relocation among new graduates with a bachelor’s degree or higher across the U.S. Census Regions, in 2013–2015, using a nationally representative sample collected by the National Science Foundation. While the Northeast and Midwest had negative net migration, the South and West had positive net migration. Compared to the South, skilled workers in all the other regions were more mobile. In general, job satisfaction determined at multiple levels influences the relocation of the highly educated in multiple ways. We found skilled workers satisfied with their job location, security, promotion opportunities, and contributions to society were less likely to relocate. Workers satisfied with their intellectual challenge and independence were more likely to relocate. Race was also an important predictor among the highly educated in deciding whether and where to relocate. Policies considering geographic perspectives are recommended to improve talent attraction and retention. Therefore, our study provides public policymakers with a need to think about how to increase pull factors attracting workers, reduce the push factors making workers relocate, and maintain factors keeping workers in their regions.

Population growth in the Tamale Metropolis: a blessing or a curse to housing

In recent times the effects of population growth on housing is globally underscored. This calls for attention on how housing needs are met by populations in developing countries due to limited individual and state resources. This study, therefore, examines the effects of population growth on housing in the Tamale Metropolis by resorting to mixed methods research design. The study relied on methods such as questionnaire administration and key informant interviews for primary data collection in addition to the secondary data. The sample size of the study was 100 respondents apportioned to the sampled study communities (Sakasaka, Target, Lamashegu, Aboabo, and Zogbeli) on the bases of their populations. Quantitative data analysis was done by using the descriptive statistics component of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 and presented with tables while qualitative data analysis was done by resorting to content analysis and presented using quotations. As part of the findings, the study disclosed that the population of Tamale Metropolis has been galloping due to factors such as high fertility, positive net migration, and low mortality emanating from improvement in healthcare delivery in the metropolis. The study recommends for intensification of public-private partnerships in housing provision.

New West and Old West in the Twenty-First Century: The Rich Get Richer

The rural U.S. West is increasingly valued for its unique natural beauty, tourism potential, and the outdoor recreational activities it provides rather than for its grazing potential, lumber mills, or extraction of valuable minerals. With this transition in mind, we examine demographic changes in the region within the context of selective migration. We build on research conducted in the late 1990s that studied the changing spatial patterns of migration and income migration within the rural Mountain West. We update the current economic and demographic structure of the region and then document how 1990s patterns have persisted through an analysis of population concentration and income migration using U.S. Census and Internal Revenue Service data. Positive net migration and income migration have focused on New West (high amenity) counties, whereas the Old West, comprised of government, mining and manufacturing, farming, and other (diversified) counties, has fallen farther behind in income migration. Consequently, selective migration to areas of natural beauty and recreation potential has increasingly transformed the rural New West into its own peculiar geography, distinct in demographics as well as environment from the Old West, revealing a growing spatial inequality between these two areas, especially in income and housing.

The Impact of Population Aging and Migration on the Labor Market in Belarus

The purpose of the study is to assess the demographic situation and migration processes that affect the functioning and transformation of the labor market in conditions of depopulation, which would allow to ensure demographic security and justify measures to improve the population employment policy. The object of the study is the patterns of transformation of the labor market in the Republic of Belarus. The subject of the study is the demographic aging of the population as the existing basis for the formation of the labor force. The hypothesis of the study is that the demographic aging of the population and the reproduction of labor resources constitute the main potential of the labor force, which forms the labor market. It is shown that the effective development of the economy in the context of digitalization should be accompanied by an increase in the quality of human potential, and the impossibility of completely replacing pensioners with persons of pre-working age can be compensated by the influx of migrants with a higher level of education and relevant qualifications. The study presents groupings of the population by age groups, reflects the dynamics of retirement, taking into account the pension reforms carried out in the country, and the possibility of actively using pensioners as a resource in the labor market. The positive net migration offsets the negative natural decline in the population of Belarus, but does not solve the problem of labor market efficiency. The article outlines the socio-economic and demographic aspects that provide justification for measures to ensure demographic security and improve state policy in the field of employment. The research is based upon economic-statistical, demographic and analytical research methods. The result and, accordingly, the scientific contribution of the study is the theoretical substantiation of the position that the situation in a country where there is no general population growth cannot be called demographically prosperous, since from an economic standpoint there will be a shortage of labor force to form effective employment in the labor market. The application of the research results would make it possible to conduct a competent policy in the labor market, taking into account the age composition of the population; carry out programs for the development of active and passive employment policies and forecasting the state of the labor market at the regional and national levels taking into account the age composition of the population; implement measures within the framework of the State Program “Labor Market and Employment Promotion” in the Republic of Belarus; to substantiate the mechanism for implementing a migration policy that ensures the quantitative and qualitative composition of the labor force in the labor market.

Russia’s Demographic Policy after 2000: Motivations, Solutions and Short-Term Results

The present study examines the directions of Russia’s demographic policy in the context of the accumulating challenges in this area and analyzes the results of this policy as well as the prospects for further development of the situation. The development of the Russian population since the Soviet era shows a steady tendency: the number of births in the regions inhabited by ethnic Russians is seriously declining, with an increase in regions inhabited by ethnic groups traditionally professing Islam. Remedial steps were already taken in the 1990s, but the turning point was 2007, when the regulations related to the introduction of Maternity Capital entered into force. Another important step was the initiation of the national project “Demography”, which significantly increased social assistance not only for families with children, but also for the older generation. The Maternity Capital policy positively correlates with the increase in births in the following years, however, after the Crimean events, the positive trend collapses and the birth rate shows a clear decreasing tendency. Undoubtedly, success has been achieved in extending life expectancy. The tendency of a definitely positive net migration is not retreating either. The long-term effect of these processes is the aging of the Russian society and the change of the ethnic structure towards an increase in the number of the country’s Muslim population. A significant population growth is observable in metropolitan cities as well as in tourist and agricultural regions of the South-West while peripheral and rural areas are dying out. The fact that despite legislative and organizational efforts the number of the Federation’s inhabitants is falling indicates the limited nature of social policies aimed at manual control of social processes.

The paradox of the unhappy, growing city: Reconciling evidence

This paper attempts to explain why some large cities in developed countries score low on indices of happiness/life satisfaction, while at the same time experiencing population growth. Using survey and register data to study Norway's biggest city, Oslo, we show that different population segments are behind these seemingly contradictory city attributes. A minority of highly mobile citizens are satisfied with life in Oslo and exhibit positive net migration to the city. A majority of less mobile citizens are dissatisfied and tend to move out of Oslo, but these flows are too small to determine the overall migration pattern.

Rural population change and settlement patterns in the Kaliningrad region in 1991 – 2021

The borders of the exclave Kaliningrad region have a more pronounced barrier function than those of other Russian territories. That is why the local socio-economic system is more self-contained. The economic, social, demographic, ekistic, and other processes are easy to model there, and regional theories are convenient to test. The aim of the article is to identify the patterns of polarization of settlement in the Kaliningrad region and the factors that have the most significant impact on the migration movement of the population in the region and the development of rural areas. This article analyses statistical data on changes in settlement patterns to reveal elements of the centre-periphery concept. We use economic-statistical, graphical, and cartographic methods to track the polarisation of settlement patterns and the economy. A distinction is drawn between the centre and the periphery, which differ qualitatively. The rapidly developing Kaliningrad agglomeration in the west of the region constitutes the centre, whilst the less urbanised underachieving east makes up the periphery. In the west, the rural population is often involved in non-agricultural activities and works in the city. Proximity to Kaliningrad and regional towns allows the rural population to benefit from the urban infrastructure, which improves their quality of life. Both urban and rural areas have a positive net migration rate accounted for by the inflow from the east of the region, Russia’s eastern and northern territories, and neighbouring countries. People are leaving eastern municipalities because of the modernisation of agriculture, a reduction in employment in the industry, the slow emergence of new jobs, and poorer living conditions.

MIGRASI RISEN DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT BERDASARKAN HASIL SP 2010 DAN SUPAS 2015

The study is difference with previous studies where the study focused on recent migration among regency/municipality in one province namely West Nusa Tenggara. The aim of the study is to analysis pattern of in recent migration, out recent migration, and net recent migration. The study method used is descriptive quantitative. The result of study showed that in recent migration, out recent migration, and net recent migration increased between 2010 and 2015. The pattern of in recent migration and out recent migration between 2010 and 2015 was same increased in 7 regencies/municipalities and decreased in 3 regencies/municipalities. The pattern of net recent migration between 2010 and 2015 was difference negative net recent migration in 6 regencies/municipalities, zero net recent migration in 1 regency, and positive net recent migration in 3 regencies. Meanwhile, in 2015 it was negative net recent migration in 5 regencies/municipalities, and positive net recent migration in 5 regencies/municipalities. The change of negative net recent migration in 2010 toward positive net recent migration in 2015 it was occurred only in 2 regencies.

Migration Between Indian Reserves and Off-Reserve Areas: an Exploratory Analysis Using Census Data Linkage

New data linkages between censuses show that migration flows between Indian reserves and off-reserve areas from 2006 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2016 resulted in negative net migration for Indian reserves, meaning that—overall—more people left Indian reserves than entered them. These results differ from the portrait shown by the retrospective information from the 2011 and 2016 censuses, which indicates positive net migration for Indian reserves. A comparison of the information in the two sources revealed two types of inconsistencies that contributed to the observed differences: (1) inconsistencies in migrant status, and (2) inconsistencies in the origin location of migrants, i.e., the retrospective information about a migrant’s place of residence 5 years earlier does not match the place where the migrant was enumerated in the previous census. Results from this paper suggest that there are limitations to using retrospective information on the place of residence 5 years prior to a census to derive estimates of internal migration flows for small geographic areas, such as Indian reserves. New data linkages are a source of information that can be used to validate and improve these estimates, as well as to derive alternative estimates. However, data linkages also have limitations and require careful preparation before use, particularly when it comes to calculating weights to accurately account for unlinked records.

International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

AbstractEvidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual‐level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate‐sized cities.

Attractiveness of Centers and Secondary Cities of Regions for Internal Migrants in Russia

Abstract—The article examines the intensity of intraregional and interregional net-migration of the populations of centers and secondary (in terms of population) cities of 74 Russian regions for 2012–2016. The informational basis of the study is a database of municipality indicators for the corresponding years. The low city saturation of the Russian space should logically lead to the fact that in intraregional migration, secondary cities, as important centers of social and economic life, should be attractive for migration, i.e., have a positive net migration rate. In fact, this is observed in 42 regions. In the remainder, the final balance of intraregional migration in secondary cities is negative. Migration can also be considered an indicator of the well-being of secondary cities both in terms of availability of their own sustainable hinterland and socioeconomically. Regional centers are attractive for intraregional migrants almost everywhere. This uniformity results from the concentration of financial and other flows and authority in the capital cities of regions and, regardless of the socioeconomic situation, better quality of life in regional centers compared to other municipalities in their regions. The interregional migration indicators are a more ambiguous characteristics: from the viewpoint of the balance considered in the article, not only regional secondary cities, but also many regional centers, are unattractive for interregional migrants. Limited demographic resources and the presence of two powerful centers of migration attraction at the country level (Moscow and St. Petersburg) leave no opportunities for migration increase owing to interregional migrants to most regional centers.

Привлекательность центров и вторых городов регионов для внутренних мигрантов в России

The article examines the intensity of net intraregional and interregional migration of the population of regional centers and the secondary (by population) cities in 74 regions of Russia between 2012–2016. The information basis of the study is formed by municipalities’ indicators database for the relevant years. The low saturation of the Russian territory with cities should logically lead to the migration attractiveness of the secondary cities in the intraregional migration process, as they should be the important focuses of social and economic life. That should be expressed by a positive net migration coefficient. In fact, this is the case in 42 regions. In other regions, the final balance of intraregional migration of the secondary cities is negative. At the same time, migration can be considered as an indicator of the conditional well-being of the secondary cities both in the context of having their own stable hinterland and from socio-economic perspective. Regional centers are attractive for intraregional migrants almost everywhere. Such consistency is the result of the concentration of financial and other flows and powers in the regions’ capital cities and, regardless of the socio-economic situation, a better quality of life there compared to other municipalities of the same regions. Indicators of interregional migration are more ambiguous: from the standpoint of the net-migration balance not only the second cities of the regions, but also many regional centers are unattractive for interregional migrants. Limited demographic resources and the presence of the two powerful centers of migration attraction at the country level (Moscow and St. Petersburg) do not leave room for interregional migration growth to the most regional centers.

Political migration discourses on social media: a comparative perspective on visibility and sentiment across political Facebook accounts in Europe

ABSTRACTMigration has been dominating media and political discourses in Europe in recent years. Previous studies have mainly mapped migration discourses in traditional media or conventional channels of party communication, often in a single country. Migration-related party communication on social network sites has been largely neglected. This study analyses migration discourses in the Facebook accounts of political actors (n = 1702) across six European countries (Spain, UK, Germany, Austria, Sweden and Poland). On the basis of automated content analyses, we present new insights into the visibility of migration as a topic and sentiment about migration, revealing country- and party-specific patterns. Migration is a more prominent topic in countries with positive net migration (‘receiving countries’) than in countries where net migration is neutral or negative. Although we did not find support for the assumption that right-leaning parties talk more, and more negatively, about migration, our results do suggest a distinct pattern that applies to parties of both the extreme left and the extreme right. Political actors from parties of the extreme left and the extreme right of the political spectrum address migration more frequently and more negatively than more moderate political players.

Effect of academic field and gender on college-bound migration in Japan

This study investigates college-bound migration flow in Japan using national-scale data from 2003 to 2014. The results, through a zero-inflated count data model regression, show the influence of academic field, network, and gender, as well as geographic and socioeconomic determinants, on college-bound migration, wherein such determinants are intertwined. Migration stocks increase the quantity of college-bound migration. Although, as expected, the migration ratios higher for natural sciences and for male students, gender differences were not found in the humanities and science, and female engineering students have a higher tendency to migrate. The total tendency of field effect is similar to the lower selectivity categories and different from the upper categories. Regional differences were also identified in relation to academic field and selectivity: 10 prefectures showed positive net migration (mainly from local to center) in all fields combined while in medicine, there were 28 prefectures in the opposite direction (mainly from center to local). Further, there are more outbound students for selective institutions in the western and metropolitan areas than in northeastern Japan. These results suggest that, to understand college-bound migration, there is a need to account for the intertwined effects of academic fields.

Bertumbuhnya Penduduk Bali Pasca-Reformasi (1998)

Population is a capital in a development of a country but on the other side, it is also a problem for the development if the population is not well managed. A big amount of population will be potential to provide human resources. Such a big amount will be a great market for the domestic production but it will need the provision of foods, shirts, houses, jobs, and facilities of education, health, etc. This thing happens in Bali because this island is an international popular destination. In the post-reform (reformasi Indonesia), Bali population growth in 1998 has increased. This is caused by several factors, namely: TFR increase, positive net migration, and decreased mortality. There are many potential negative impacts that can arise because of the population problems due to the increase in the rate of growth. Therefore, in development, the population must be paid more attention, because in essence in the development of the population is as the subject and object. The development should be able to improve the welfare of the inhabitants either inborn or in a just and sustainable way

Utjecaj ratnih i poratnih migracija na demografsku sliku Grada Knina (1991. – 2011.)

U radu se analiziraju promjene u ukupnom kretanju broja stanovnika u naseljima Grada Knina u posljednja dva međupopisna razdoblja (1991. – 2001., 2001. – 2011.) te promjene u narodnosnoj strukturi stanovništva. Budući da je rat prouzročio prisilne migracije koje su odredile demografske procese na tom području, posebna pažnja pridaje se proučavanju migracijskih obilježja stanovništva. Rezultati analize pokazuju da su se najveće promjene u demografskoj slici toga područja dogodile u međupopisnom razdoblju 1991. – 2001. Obje komponente (prirodno i mehaničko kretanje) koje su bile negativne dovele su do znatnog pada broja stanovnika te do izrazitog smanjivanja autohtonog stanovništva. Posljedica toga je promjena narodnosne strukture. Predratno srpsko stanovništvo smanjeno je za više od tri četvrtine, a doseljavanje stanovništva iz ostalih dijelova Hrvatske te iz Bosne i Hercegovine dovelo je do prevage Hrvata. Unatoč pozitivnom migracijskom saldu u posljednjem međupopisnom razdoblju, u većini naselja, koje obuhvaća ovo istraživanje, nepovoljni demografski procesi, okarakterizirani negativnom prirodnom promjenom te demografskim starenjem stanovništva, upućuju na nastavak depopulacije koja će u nekim naseljima dovesti do demografskog izumiranja.