The Impact of Population Aging and Migration on the Labor Market in Belarus

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the demographic situation and migration processes that affect the functioning and transformation of the labor market in conditions of depopulation, which would allow to ensure demographic security and justify measures to improve the population employment policy. The object of the study is the patterns of transformation of the labor market in the Republic of Belarus. The subject of the study is the demographic aging of the population as the existing basis for the formation of the labor force. The hypothesis of the study is that the demographic aging of the population and the reproduction of labor resources constitute the main potential of the labor force, which forms the labor market. It is shown that the effective development of the economy in the context of digitalization should be accompanied by an increase in the quality of human potential, and the impossibility of completely replacing pensioners with persons of pre-working age can be compensated by the influx of migrants with a higher level of education and relevant qualifications. The study presents groupings of the population by age groups, reflects the dynamics of retirement, taking into account the pension reforms carried out in the country, and the possibility of actively using pensioners as a resource in the labor market. The positive net migration offsets the negative natural decline in the population of Belarus, but does not solve the problem of labor market efficiency. The article outlines the socio-economic and demographic aspects that provide justification for measures to ensure demographic security and improve state policy in the field of employment. The research is based upon economic-statistical, demographic and analytical research methods. The result and, accordingly, the scientific contribution of the study is the theoretical substantiation of the position that the situation in a country where there is no general population growth cannot be called demographically prosperous, since from an economic standpoint there will be a shortage of labor force to form effective employment in the labor market. The application of the research results would make it possible to conduct a competent policy in the labor market, taking into account the age composition of the population; carry out programs for the development of active and passive employment policies and forecasting the state of the labor market at the regional and national levels taking into account the age composition of the population; implement measures within the framework of the State Program “Labor Market and Employment Promotion” in the Republic of Belarus; to substantiate the mechanism for implementing a migration policy that ensures the quantitative and qualitative composition of the labor force in the labor market.