Migration Between Indian Reserves and Off-Reserve Areas: an Exploratory Analysis Using Census Data Linkage

Abstract

New data linkages between censuses show that migration flows between Indian reserves and off-reserve areas from 2006 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2016 resulted in negative net migration for Indian reserves, meaning that—overall—more people left Indian reserves than entered them. These results differ from the portrait shown by the retrospective information from the 2011 and 2016 censuses, which indicates positive net migration for Indian reserves. A comparison of the information in the two sources revealed two types of inconsistencies that contributed to the observed differences: (1) inconsistencies in migrant status, and (2) inconsistencies in the origin location of migrants, i.e., the retrospective information about a migrant’s place of residence 5 years earlier does not match the place where the migrant was enumerated in the previous census. Results from this paper suggest that there are limitations to using retrospective information on the place of residence 5 years prior to a census to derive estimates of internal migration flows for small geographic areas, such as Indian reserves. New data linkages are a source of information that can be used to validate and improve these estimates, as well as to derive alternative estimates. However, data linkages also have limitations and require careful preparation before use, particularly when it comes to calculating weights to accurately account for unlinked records.